The Science, Politics and Economics of Climate Change Chris Tuppen climate change
Yes We Can If there is anyone out there who still doubts that America is a place where all things are possible; who still wonders if the dream of our founders is alive in our time; who still questions the power of our democracy, tonight is your answer.... blah blah... Where we are met with cynicism, and doubt, and those who tell us that we can't, we will respond with that timeless creed that sums up the spirit of a people: Yes We Can.
... or maybe we can t http://www.onehundredmonths.org/
DECC s Book of Revelation DECC's research has revealed that more than 50% of people do not believe climate change will affect them and only about one in five (18%) think it will take effect during their children's lifetimes.
Climate Change learning from the past James Croll Scottish 1821-1890 Albedo Effect
Climate Change learning from the past Milutin Milanković Serbian 1879-1958
Climate Change learning from the past Svante Arrhenius Swedish1859-1927 average temperature of earth carbon dioxide level in atmosphere -400,000-300,000-200,000-100,000 today
Jigsaw of Climate Stability
A bit more history The Earth is 4.6 billion years old The Dinosaurs died out 65 million years ago Homo Erectus stood up 1.8 million years ago Human civilisation started 10,000 years ago
Australia 2009 Feb: Melbourne hits 46.8C breaking previous record by 3C. Murray Darling Basin - river flows 5% of average affects 40% of Australian agriculture. 24 th Sept Giant dust cloud, 1,600 km x 400 km, removes 100,000 tonnes of topsoil per hour. Australia s worst ever bushfires kill 173 and destroy 2,000 homes. Aug: Locations in New South Wales and Queensland break August record by 4-5C. Inflows into Perth s dams since 2001 down by 75% of long-term average. http://paulgilding.com/cockatoo-chronicles/toolateforaustralia.html
Is the Arctic ready to give up its treasures? Global warming could reveal lucrative reserves of untapped oil, gas and precious metals beneath the ice caps in the near future - but at what environmental cost? By Roger Howard Published: 7:00AM BST 06 Oct 2009
Climate Change on a page CO 2 (ppm) Temp ± Consequence 550 ppm +3-4 C Ultimately >50m sea rise 450 ppm + 2 C IPCC target,1m rise by 2100 387 ppm + 0.7 C Today 285 ppm Last 10,000 years 200 ppm - 5 C Ice Age: sea level -120m Happening faster than expected Real risk of tipping Emissions growing at 1-2% pa Need to reduce at 3%pa in OECD Net 4-5% reduction pa to 2050 Investment $100 s b pa to 2020
http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/special:sealevel
Crunch time If we fail to act with speed and commitment, the climate crunch, 5C temperature rise will cause a nature crunch, 50% biodiversity loss 1 that will cause a social crunch, >300m people displaced 2 that will make the credit crunch look like child s play. 1. UK Natural History Museum 2. UNDP Human Development Report 2008, for 3-4C temp rise
UK Climate Change Act & Low Carbon Transition Plan 80%reduction by 2050 against 1990 34% reduction by 2020 against 1990 18% reduction by 2020 against 2008 42% Renewable Electricity % renewable energy 15% renewable energy by 2020 >30% renewable electricity by 2020 50% in Scotland UK 2007 actual 2020 target
Scottish Renewable Electricity 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Hydro Other Renewables
Climate Change Act & Low Carbon Transition Plan 80%reduction by 2050 against 1990 34% reduction by 2020 against 1990 18% reduction by 2020 against 2008 42% Renewable Electricity % renewable energy 15% renewable energy by 2020 >30% renewable electricity by 2020 50% in Scotland UK 2007 actual 2020 target Transport 14% cut on 2008 levels by 2020 Energy Efficiency CRC for organisation using > 6000MWhrs electricity pa (~ 0.5m)
UK Cost Curve 600 550 500 Cost of abatement 2002 real /tco 2 e 450 400 Abatement required to meet 2030 target 350 50 0 50 100 150 40 /tco 2 e 0 50 100 150 200 250 Nuclear Wind on shore Cavity wall Abatement potential MtCO 2 e 400 Lighting Biofuels Condensing boilers Zero carbon homes Solid wall insulation Solar water heating Engine and non engine efficiency (cars) CCS (gas) Source: CBI climate change task force
When to scrap?
Optimum Obsolescence Point of Optimum Obsolescence
Time to change your notebook? 80 Energy change pa Energy over 50 year (MJ) 60 40 Manufacture 1650-1% Distrib 5 0% Use (pa) 810-5% EOL -19 0% 20 0 5 10 15 20 Product life years Band of Optimum Obsolescence
Time to change your car? 11,000 miles pa -4% pa from DECC low carbon transition plan. Cutting average carbon dioxide emissions from new cars across the EU to 95g/km by 2020, a 40% reduction from 2007 levels Band of Optimum Obsolescence
Time to change your car? Energy change pa Manufacture 76000-2% Distrib 200 0% Use (pa) 48667-4% EOL -432 0% Energy over 50 year (GJ) 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 3,700 miles pa -4% pa from DECC low carbon transition plan. Cutting average carbon dioxide emissions from new cars across the EU to 95g/km by 2020, a 40% reduction from 2007 levels 1000 0 5 10 15 Product life years Band of Optimum Obsolescence
How hard to try? 80 70 60 % Reduction 50 40 30 20 10 0 2009 2019 2029 2039 2049 Global 100 Companies IPCC target
World CO 2 e intensity for 80% reduction in emissions 3.00 CO2e / unit GDP (Kg/ ) 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 Reducing at 9.6%pa at current prices 0.00 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 But what should a company do?
A company should.. 3.00 CO 2 e / unit GDP (Kg/ ) 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 Reducing at 9.6%pa at current prices 0.00 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Match or exceed this trend ie its CO 2 e per unit of contribution to GDP* should drop by at least 9.6% pa A company s contribution to GDP is defined as its Value Added, where: Value Added = EBITDA + employee costs = turnover cost of bought in goods and services
Setting a Climate Stabilisation Intensity Target 0.25 0.2 Kg CO2e / 0.15 0.1 0.05 80% reduction target by 2020 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Climate Stabilisation Intensity Target Ensures emission reductions are sufficient to prevent catastrophic climate change. Links climate protection to economic growth. Green growth for a low carbon future
A Massive Transformation The move to a low carbon economy will be as impactful as the industrial revolution. 2010 2020 2030 2040 Some key technologies wind energy efficiency Electric cars CCS
Smart Grid Micro-generation Data Centre Hub Energy Management online Network Carrier Energy Supplier Electricity Gas Smart Meter In-home display Energy Management Services via TV Energy Supplier Precise readings Accurate billing Demand management Competitive tariffs Customer Control of energy Accurate bills Flexible tariffs Greener energy
Warm afternoon Solar panel heating up hot water Teenager takes a shower Just installed solar PV Boiling the kettle Baking a cake Son goes to bed
What do we know about the future? "I think there is a world market, for maybe five computers" IBM chief Thomas Watson 1943 That s an amazing invention, but who would ever want to use one of them? President Rutherford B. Hayes to Alexander Graham Bell in 1876 Sir William Preece, chief engineer for the British Post Office, 1878: Conditions in America necessitate the use of such instruments more than here. Here we have a superabundance of messengers, errand boys and things of that kind. In early 1980s McKinsey predicted one million cell phones by 2000.