Energy, population and climate change in the 21 st century. Data, not opinions. Jim Thomson. ESR Technology Ltd

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1 Energy, population and climate change in the 21 st century Data, not opinions Jim Thomson ESR Technology Ltd

2 The world during the 21 st century Food supply Age distribution World population World energy demand Population growth Economic growth Quality of life? Extreme weather Food shortages Mass migrations Climate change World energy supply Peak oil Biofuel vs food supply Renewables, Nuclear Imposed constraints on fossils

4 World population

5 World population distribution 2009

6 Approximate populations in 2009 WORLD 6,810,000,000 China 1,334,230,000 India 1,172,800,000 Europe 830,400,000 USA 307,973,000 Indonesia 231,369,500 Brazil 192,064,000 Pakistan 167,999,000 Bangladesh 162,221,000 Nigeria 154,729,000 Half the world s population is in China, India, and Europe

7 'Double food output to stop world starving,' say scientists Royal Society wants green revolution to deal with global population rise of 3 billion The Independent, 21 st October 2009

8 The world during the 21 st century Food supply Age distribution World population World energy demand Population growth Economic growth Quality of life? Extreme weather Food shortages Mass migrations Climate change World energy supply Peak oil Biofuel vs food supply Renewables, Nuclear Imposed constraints on fossils

9 Source: A Blueprint for Survival, 1972

10 Warning: don t always believe longterm forecasts!

11 Source: ExxonMobil

12 World energy consumption

13 Electricity consumption per capita by country

14 Oil consumption per capita by country Source: BP

15 Gas consumption per capita by country Source: BP

16 Energy consumption OECD vs non-oecd

17 The world during the 21 st century Food supply Age distribution World population World energy demand Population growth Economic growth Quality of life? Extreme weather Food shortages Mass migrations Climate change World energy supply Peak oil Biofuel vs food supply Renewables, Nuclear Imposed constraints on fossils

18 ~40 years reserves at current rate of use for every nine barrels of oil we consume, we are only discovering one BP

20 Oil production by country

21 UK North Sea Oil and Gas production Source: DTI, 2007

22 Peak oil Source: Scientific American October 2009

23 Are we going through the peak now?

24 Differing forecasts for global oil production IEA bias? Guardian, 12 Nov 2009

25 and US EIA bias too?

27 Oil peaking represents a liquid fuels problem, not an energy crisis in the sense that term has been used. Motor vehicles, aircraft, trains, and ships simply have no ready alternative to liquid fuels. Non-hydrocarbon-based energy sources, such as solar, wind, photovoltaics, nuclear power, geothermal, fusion, etc. produce electricity, not liquid fuels, so their widespread use in transportation is at best decades away. Accordingly, mitigation of declining world oil production must be narrowly focused. PEAKING OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION: IMPACTS, MITIGATION, & RISK MANAGEMENT Robert L. Hirsch, February 2005

28 GTL may grow faster than above Peak N Sea oil production (1999) was 4.5mboed Break-even price for bio-fuel is about $72/barrel

29 Some typical yields for biodiesel Crop Yield (per annum) L/ha gal/acre US Algae [n 1] ~3,000 ~300 Chinese tallow [n 2][n 3] Palm oil [n 4] Coconut Rapeseed [n 4] Soy (Indiana) [55] Peanut [n 4] Sunflower [n 4] Hemp [citation needed] ^ est.- see soy figures and DOE quote below 2.^ Klass, Donald, "Biomass for Renewable Energy, Fuels, and Chemicals", page 341. Academic Press, ^ Kitani, Osamu, "Volume V: Energy and Biomass Engineering, CIGR Handbook of Agricultural Engineering", Amer Society of Agricultural, ^ a b c d Biofuels: some numbers

30 ~120 years reserves at current rate of use

31 ~60 years reserves at current rate of use

32 Our global gas demand outlook is 200bcm per annum less in 2015 than it was eighteen months ago, preeconomic crisis. The new reality for the global gas industry is reduced demand and over-supply, the effects of which will be felt in the medium and long term Neil Thomas, Head of Gas Research, Wood Mackenzie, Nov 2009

33 You need wind to make wind power From the Met Office. Issued at 0530 GMT on Tuesday 16 Jul 2002.

34 Switching to much more expensive energy may be acceptable for us in the developed world. But in the developing world, there are still tens of millions of people suffering from acute poverty, and from the consequences of such poverty, in the shape of preventable disease, malnutrition and premature death. So for the developing world, the overriding priority has to be the fastest feasible rate of economic development, which means, inter alia, using the cheapest available form of energy: carbon-based energy. Nigel Lawson, The Times, 23 rd November 2009 (but he then goes on to deny climate change...)

35 The world during the 21 st century Food supply Age distribution World population World energy demand Population growth Economic growth Quality of life? Extreme weather Food shortages Mass migrations Climate change World energy supply Peak oil Biofuel vs food supply Renewables, Nuclear Imposed constraints on fossils

36 Global CO2 emission rates Source: dberr

37 Forecast CO 2 emission rates

38 Historical atmospheric CO 2 levels Source IPCC 2007

39 Observed Climate Changes Source IPCC 2007

40 IPCC calibration curve Source IPCC 2007

41 IPCC 2007 projections for warming

42 How big will temperature rise by 2100 be? Source: Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change

43 The Greenland Ice Sheet has a 60% likelihood of irreversible decline. This would result in a very long-term sealevel rise of up to 7m globally. Source: DECC Firetree.net gives an interactive map showing the effects.

44 Source: Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change

46 4 deg C warmer - the world in 2099??? Source: New Scientist Feb 2009

47 World population distribution 2009

48 Summary: The world in 2099? 1. Peak oil (before 2020?) 2. Population growth (9 bn by 2050) 3. Food shortages 4. Competition between bio-fuel and food 5. Competition for dwindling oil resources 6. Growing importance of natural gas 7. Significant climate change 8. Coastal flooding 9. Mass migrations 10. Political instability

49 Humans as a species will survive, but the cull this century will be huge New Scientist Feb 2009

50 The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse - Pestilence, War, Famine and Death

51 ..but don t believe long-term forecasts (although it looks convincing to me) Myles Allen, head of the Climate Dynamics Group at the University of Oxford, said that predictions of how the world was likely to warm needed to be framed carefully. While there was little doubt that the Earth would get hotter, there were still many uncertainties about the precise extent and regional impact. I think we need to be very careful about purporting to be able to supply very detailed and apparently accurate information about how the climate will be in 50 or 100 years time, when what we re really giving is a possible future climate, he added. We re not in a position to say how likely it is and what the chances are of it being different. There s an understandable tendency to want to make climate change real for people and tell them what s going to happen in their postcode, and that s very dangerous because it gets beyond the level on which current models can operate. The Times, 30 th October 2009

52 Beyond The present interglacial period may end in the next 1000 years Will CO 2 emissions prevent a new ice age?

Glaciation cycles - more extreme in last million years. 3.

53 Ice ages in the last million years, showing the effect of Milankovich cycles:- 1. Low midsummer high latitude insolation => glaciation. 2. Glaciation cycles - more extreme in last million years. 3. This may be due to falling CO2 levels. 4. Tectonic uplift and weathering lead to CO2 drawdown Source: The Great Ice Age, The Open University, 2000

54 Thanks

55 Source: Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change

Contents. Introduction: Types of Energy

Contents. Introduction: Types of Energy Faculty of International Relations & Diplomatic Studies Academic Year: (2018-2019) Batch No: (1) Course Title: International politics of energy Course code: IR-421 Lecture Title: Global Demand for Energy