Energiewende Germany s energy system and the status of the energy transition Markus Kurdziel Programm Office International Climate Initiative BMUB (PB IKI) Sacramento, Aug 5th 2015 15-08-04 Referent 1
Five reasons for the Energiewende Development of new technologies as new sources of growth and employment Energy policy can be both sustainable and economically successful Reduce dependency on energy imports Reduce carbon emissions and reach climate protection targets Phase-out nuclear power generation The Energiewende is a long-term strategy based on public acceptance. 15-08-05 Markus Kurdziel 2
Drivers of the Energiewende mitigate climate change The Energiewende helps to reach climate protection goals. 3
German GHG Emissions (2014) by sector (MtCO 2 eq.) Energy industry 355 Mt 39% Industry 187 Mt 21% Total: 912 Mt Transport 164 Mt 18% Other 13 MT 1% Agriculture 70 Mt 8% Households 88 Mt 10% Trade and services 35 Mt 4% CO 2 emissions are largely caused by the energy, industry and transport sectors.
Source: AGEB 2012, AGEB 2014 Energy imports and domestic production in Germany 100 90 80 domestic production renewables lignite 70 hard coal % of total primary energy supply 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 import dependence 60% RES target 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 gas oil oil imports gas imports hard coal imports nuclear total imports The Energiewende hits many birds with one stone as renewables and efficiency reduce Germany s energy dependence. 15-08-04 Markus Kurdziel 5
Benefits - reduce costs of energy imports Renewable sources of energy saved 10 billion of fossil fuel imports in 2012 and over 9 billion in 2013. Source: BMWi 2014 6
* 2013 Source: Federal Government 2010, BMU/BMWi 2014, AGEE-Stat 2014, AGEB 2015 2050 Energiewende targets Achieved 2014 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Climate % greenhouse gas reduction (vs. 1990) -27% -40-55 -70-80 to -95 Renewable Energies Energy Efficiency % gross electricity consumption % final energy consumption % primary energy consumption (vs. 2008) final energy productivity building renovation 27.8% 12,4%* - 9 % 0.2%* p.a. ~1%* p.a. 35 40 to 45 50 55 to 60 65 +2.1% p.a. doubling of renovation rate: 1% 2% The energy transition follows a transparent, long-term strategy with specific targets. 18-20 30 45 80 60-50 15-08-04 Markus Kurdziel 7
Important policy documents in Germany Energy Concept (2010) and energy package (2011) 10 point agenda (2014) Climate action programme (2014) National Action Plan Energy Efficieny (2014) Energy Green Paper (2014) 8
Source: BMU 2012 Four areas to increase flexibility 20% 35% 50% 65% 80% Share of RE 2025 2035 2050 Target year Grids Grid expansion Generation Flexibility RE curtailment Consumption Demand response Storage Power-to-heat Pumped storage Power-to-gas Different flexibility measures are suitable for varying shares of volatile renewables. 15-08-05 Markus Kurdziel 9
Installed Capacity in Germany 89 GW conventional 87 GW RES 80-85 GW maximum load
Federal Law Requirements Plan for 2023 36 line project planning for the high voltage transmission grid 8 pilot projects for low-loss transmission (underground cables) 1 pilot project for high temperature conductors New line direct current New line alternating current Upgrade direct current Upgrade alternating current Existing high voltage grid (220/380 kv) The Federal Law Requirements Plan lists 36 grid extension projects for 2023 and is revised annually. Source: IET- International Energy Transition, Netzausbau.de 11
Source: Ecofys 2015 Main federal-level energy efficiency measures Buildings Energy consulting KfW progammes for construction and renovation MAP (Market Incentive Programme) Energy saving legislation Products and appliances Energy consulting (Energy Efficiency Campaign) NTRI: National Top Runner Initiative Energy Efficiency Labelling Ordinance Ecodesign Directive (eff. classification) Industry and business Energy consulting services KfW credits and loans (Effizienzprogramm, BAFA) Obligatory energy audits European emissions trading (ETS) Transport Labelling (EU Directive Fuel Economy) Regulation of consumption Motor vehicle taxation E-mobility strategy Mobility and fuel strategy Energy efficiency policies find a balance between consultation, information, incentives and regulation. 15-08-04 Markus Kurdziel 12
Source: Ecofys 2015 based on BMWi 2014 NAPE: Efficiency measures and their expected savings Quality assurance and optimising of energy consulting Incentive programme for energy-efficient renovation Continuation and increased funding of the CO2 building renovation programme Promoting energy performance contracting National energy-efficiency label for old heating installations National top runner initiative Introduction of a competitive tendering scheme for energy efficiency 4.0 PJ 0-40 PJ 12.5 PJ 5.5-10 PJ 10.0 PJ 85.0 PJ 26-51.5 PJ 32-76.5 PJ savings 111-136.5 PJ savings Upgrading the KfW energy efficiency programmes Energy efficiency networks initiative Obligation to perform energy audits for non-smes 29.5 PJ 74.5 PJ 50.5 PJ 154.5 PJ savings A balance of information, support and regulation. 15-08-04 Markus Kurdziel 13
Share in [%] Source: Ecofys 2015 based on AGEE-Stat 2015 Renewable energy development in Germany 40,0 35,0 30,0 25,0 27,8 Renewable Energy Sources and their share of the energy supply in Germany 35 1990 1995 2000 20,0 18 2005 15,0 10,0 5,0 0,0 9,9 14 electricity heating transport total final energy consumption The share of renewables is growing in all sectors, but fastest in electricity. 5,4 10 2010 2014 target 2020 15-08-04 Markus Kurdziel 14
Sourece: 50hertz, Boris Schucht 2015 Expansion of renewable energy sources in Germany wind solar PV biomass The number of renewable power plants has grown exponentially over the past 14 years. 15-08-04 Markus Kurdziel 15
employees (in 1,000) Source: adelphi 2013, DLR/DIW/ ZSW/GWS 2013, BMU 2012 Gross job creation in the German renewables sector 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 geothermal hydro solar biomass wind The renewables sector has positive employment effects in Germany. 15-08-04 Markus Kurdziel 16
Source: Fraunhofer ISI 2014 RES levelised cost of electricity in Europe 2014, 2020, 2030 Renewables are increasingly competitive with conventional powerplants. 15-08-04 Markus Kurdziel 17
Opening up the EEG for European Neighbours Germany will open up at least 5% of the EEG for foreign investment from 2017 onwards Reason for opening up: Europeanize the Energiewende Yield to the pressure of the EU commission In 2016 there will be a pilot opening for PV Conditions for opening up: International treaty Mutuality Physical import of electricity
Storage technologies Electro mechanical Mechanical Electro magnetical & Electrical Thermal & Chemical Batteries, flywheel Pumped hydro storage, compressed air Superconductors, capacitors Power-to-heat, district heating, caverns, aquifers Power-to-gas, hydrogen (H2) There are various options to store energy: electro mechanical, mechanical, electro magnetical, electrical, thermal, and chemical options. 19
Duration of discharge Characteristics of power storage technologies Storage technologies differ widely in duration of discharge, storage capacity, costs and commercial viability. Source: Sterner, Stadler et al 2014 20
Source: REN 21 GSR 2015 Global new investments in renewables 2004-2014 Developing countries are catching up as RES are becoming less expensive. 15-08-04 Markus Kurdziel 21
Not including Hydropower Source: REN21 GSR 2015 Top worldwide renewable power capacities 2014 The biggest players in the RES sectors are some of the most important economies worldwide. 15-08-05 Markus Kurdziel 22
Source: Federal Minstry for the Environment 2014 Climate Action Programme 2020 Key policy measures National Energy Efficiency Action Plan (NAPE) (excl. measures in the transport sector) Strategy on climate-friendly building and housing (incl. building specific NAPE measures) Transport sector measures Non-energy related emissions in - industry, trade/commerce/services, waste mgmt. - agriculture Emission trading reform Further measures, incl. the electricity sector Contribution to GHG emission reduction (million t CO2 eq) Ca. 25 30 m t Ca. 5.7 10 m t Ca. 7 10 m t 3 7.7 m t 3.6 m t Dependent on EU 22 m t Recent policy programmes will reduce emissions by an additional 62-78 million tonnes of CO2 by 2020. 15-08-05 Markus Kurdziel 23
Thank you for your attention Contact details Markus Kurdziel Programmbüro BMUB Int. Klimaschutzinitiative Team Leader Mitigation Potsdamer Platz 10 10785 Berlin Tel. +49 (30) 33 84 24 165 Fax: +49 (30) 33 84 24 22 165 E-Mail: markus.kurdziel@programmbuero-klima.de Internet: http://www.international-climate-initiative.com/de/ 15-08-04 Referent 24