Urban energy use and CO2 emissions of Cities in China Shobhakar Dhakal, Ph.D. Executive Director, Global Carbon Project (GCP) GCP Tsukuba International Project Office c/o National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) Onogawa 16-2, Tsukuba, Japan 305 8506 E-mail: shobhakar.dhakal@nies.go.jp
Estimations or urban energy/co2 at global and city scale depends on definitions 1. What is urban and a city (physical definition)? How urban definition varies in the world? Does {city} means {urban}? Where are their physical boundaries? 2. How we define responsibility? Physical (territorial) or functional (nonterritorial) 3. How energy use or carbon emission is accounted for that responsibility?
National definitions of urban Criterion Countries Adminis tra tive 83 E conomic 1 P opula tion s ize 57 Urban characteris tic 4 Any combina tion 48 E ntire popula tion 6 No urban population 3 Unclear definition No definition 1 25 Tota l 228 Source: Thomas Buettner, UN Population Division
Incomparable definitions of urban determine global urban population numbers India classifies under 5,000 inhabitant settlements as rural villages 17.5% of Egypt's population lived in settlements with 10,000 to 20,000 inhabitants which were not classified as urban (1996) In Sweden, urban (tätort) refers to settlements of more than 200 inhabitants with continuous built-up area that houses are not more than 200 meters apart when discounting rivers, parks, roads, etc What would be world s urban population data if we apply Swedish definition to India and China? Lower ends of urban definition swings urbanization levels drastically
What is Beijing City? Mark R. Montgomery Science 319, 761 (2008); DOI: 10.1126/science.1153012 Urban population in 2000 census is further different from any of these boundaries
China China s global contributions 16 % of the global primary energy use in 2006 (WEO 2008) 20% to global energy-related CO2 emissions (WEO 2008) Out of global addition of 12.6 GtCO2 (energy-related) in 1996-2030, China alone will contribute half (WEO 2008) 16.8 % of global urban population (UN, 2007) Urbanization in China will increase further 60% (880 million) by 2030 from 41 % (545 million) in 2005. MGI (2008) projects it to one billion for 2030 90% of GDP by 2025 from urban economy (MGI, 2008)
City energy use in China, 2006 Region Share of city primary energy demand in regional total Ratio of city percapita primary energy demand to regional average Urbanisation rate US 80% 0.99 81% European Union 69% 0.94 73% Australia and New Zealand 78% 0.88 88% China 75% 83% in 20301.82 41% For commercial energy use only, the urban contribution would be 84% in 2006 Urban primary energy use percapita in China is 1.8 times of national average Urban to rural commercial primary energy use ratio is 6.8 In China such gap will be narrower by 2030 but rising urbanization increase energy use and carbon emissions Source: WEO 2008; Dhakal 2008
Urban s contribution to energy related CO2 emissions of China Large volume: 4.8 Gt in 2006 More than whole of Europe (4.06 Gt) Global importance: 24% of global urban CO2 emission from energy use Local importance: 85% of total energy related CO2 emissions of China WEO, 2008; Dhakal, 2008
Urban vs city in China 656 cities and 19,369 towns in China (2006) makes about 90% of population Urban population is 41% in 2005 City is an administrative unit-does not mean urban always
Urban population definition 1999 1 2 3 4 Urban area designation Population category Place of household registration Mobility of people 5 6 Jianfa Shen POPULATION, SPACE AND PLACE Popul. Space Place 11, 381 400 (2005)
Enormous influence of China s largest and most important 35 cities Economic hotspots Flash points for synergy and conflicts between economy, energy and CO2 List of 35 most important cities that are mentioned in national plan: Beijing, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, Taiyuan, Hohhot, Shenyang, Dalian, Changchun, Harbin, Shanghai, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Hefei, Fuzhou, Xiamen, Nanchang, Jinan, Qingdao, Zhengzhou, Wuhan, Changsha, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Nanning, Haikou, Chongqing, Chengdu, Guiyang, Kunming, Xi'an, Lanzhou, Xining, Yinchuan, and Urumqi. Source: Dhakal (2008)
Enormous influence of China s largest and most important 35 cities Source: Dhakal (2008)
Varying energy-economy pathways within China s cities Per Capita Energy Consu umption in MJ Per Person 280,000 240,000 200,000 160,000 120,000 80,000 40,000 Xining Chongquin Taiyuan Yinchuan Urumqi Guiyang China Xian Fuzhou Hohhot Nanjing Ningbo Xiamen Beijing Shanghai Guangzhou High energy pathway: Largely on middle and western China with energy intensive industries and climatically cooler Low energy pathway: Cities in eastern part of the country with strong presence of service industries, close to coast and warmer climate 0 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 Per Capita Gross Regional Product in US$ Source: Dhakal (2008)
Four provincial cities Basic indicators of Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin and Chongqing, 2006 City Beijing Shanghai Tianjin Chongqing Area, Sq Km 16,410 6,340 11,920 82,400 Resident population, million 15.81 18.15 10.75 2,808 Registered population, million 11.98 13.68 9.49 3,199 Urban share in resident population (%) 84% 89% 76% 47% Gross regional product, billion US$ 98.7 130.0 54.7 43.8 Total energy use, thousand TJ a 1,332 2,480 1,271 1,160 Total energy related CO2 emissions, million tons a 142.10 228.74 117.61 103.97 Note the difference between resident and registered population a Total energy means sum of TFC, distribution/transmission losses and conversion losses Source: Dhakal (2008)
Per capita CO2 emissions 20 16 Beijing Chongqing 5 times of 1985 Shanghai Tianjin 12 2.6 times of 1985 Per capita CO2 emissions, tons/registered population Rapidly rising energy use and CO2 emissions 8 4 0 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Diverging trends within cities Based on permanent registered population Dhakal(2008)
Per capita energy and CO2 Primary energy demand, in TOE/person 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2.7 2.2 1.9 0.8 Beijing Shanghai Tianjin Chongquin CO2 emissio on from energy use, in Tons/person 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 12.6 10.9 9.0 3.7 Beijing Shanghai Tianjin Chongquin Based on permanent resident population source: Dhakal(2008) Per capita final energy consumption, 2006 Per capita CO2 emissions, 2006 Year 2003 Tokyo Metropolis: 5.9 tons CO2/person (pop12.06 mn) for 2003 New York State: 10.9 tons CO2/person (pop 18.95 mn) for 2003 New York City: 7.1 tons/co2 (pop 8.1 mn) for 2006 (PLANYC) Greater London: 6.95 tons CO2/person (pop 7.3 mn) for 2003 Bangkok City: 6 tons CO2/person (electricity and transport only, 2005) Source: TMG, PLANYC, BMA
Common trends in CO2 Sectoral CO2 transition contribution Decreasing share of industry sector (except Tianjin) Rising share of commercial and transports sectors Largely unchanged share of residential sector Fuel s CO2 transition Declining share of direct coal burning Rising share of electricity and oil Smaller role of natural gas then expected in Shanghai and Tianjin
Drivers in cities-impacts of carbon intensity, energy intensity, income and population effects Change in CO2 emissions indexed to 1 Change in CO2 emissions indexed to 1 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00-2.00-4.00-6.00-8.00 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00-0.50-1.00-1.50-2.00 Carbon Intensity effect Energy Intensity effect Economic effect Population effect CO2 changes 19.1 Beijing 150 0.50 120 increasing CO2 emissions 0.00 90-0.50 49.8 60 Energy intensity played key role in 11.7 30-1.00 36.3 6.9 240 210 180 Total CO2 Changes, mn Tons Change in CO2 emissions indexed to 1 2.00 1.50 1.00 Carbon Intensity effect Energy Intensity effect Economic effect Population effect CO2 Changes Economic growth played major role in dampening CO2 emissions 1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2006 26.0 Carbon Intensity effect Energy Intensity effect Economic effect Population effect CO2 Changes 67.5 1.2 48.9 1985-1995 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2006 0 80 40 0-1.50 The influence of fuel shift in dampening CO2 emissions is nominal Tianjin 320 Total CO2 Changes, mn Tons -2.00-3.00 21.8 Shanghai 31.3 93.6 1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2006 28.00 280 2.00 Population effect The effect of demography seems important 240 CO2 Changes 1.00 in increasing CO2 emission in Beijing and 200 Shanghai if we include floating 0.00 population 160-7.23into-20.87 consideration 120-1.00 Change in CO2 emissions indexed to 1 3.00 16.2 Chongqing Carbon Intensity effect Energy Intensity effect Economic effect 24.2 1997-2000 2000-2006 420 360 300 240 180 120 60 0 180 150 120 90 60 30 0 Total CO2 changes, mn Tons Total CO2 Changes, mn Tons Dhakal (2008)
Carbon intensity of economy and per capita trends CO2/GRP Kg/Yuan (1978 constant price) 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 - Tianjin (1985-2006) Chonqing (1997-2006) Shanghai (1985-2006) Beijing (1985-2006) 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 CO2/capita, tons/person Failed to perform well, in general (ideally should move towards origin over time) Large gain in carbon intensity of economy but this has slowed or even worsened in recent years No way to reduce control per capita emission for now but clearly great need to be dampened the growth and in carbon intensity terms
Slowing/reducing growth of tertiary sector in recent years 80% GRP Share of Tertia ary sector 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1980 1990 2000 2006 Beijing Shanghai Tianjin Chongqing Source: Dhakal (2008)
Beijing CO 2 footprint, million t-co 2 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 Share of CO2 in export 49.2% (1992) 29.8% (1997) 56.9% (2002) Change in total carbon emissions in Beijing 19.27% (1992-1997) 74.5% (1997-2002) 40 20 0 Inflow Outflow Inflow Outflow Inflow Outflow 1992 1997 2002 Indirect Coal Oil Gas Consumption Capital Formation Export Kaneko, Dhakal (in progress please don t quote)
Summary Cities and urban are clearly different and caution is needed in using terms Urban contributions for energy use and CO2 emissions in China are huge (Tier 1) China s 35 largest cities have and will have enormous and disproportionate influence in shaping nation s energy and carbon future. However, there are different pathways within too. (Tier 2) As seen from Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, and Chongqing analyses, a rapid energy transition taking place in cities-a low carbon path in evidently important to explore despite obvious difficulties (Tier 3)
Summary The fact that city s footprints are high needs new considerations for allocating responsibility -the ultimate goal should be to lesson footprint of cities Policy implications Urban energy contribution is large-it plays key role for key policy objectives such as 20% EI reduction targeted, energy security, local pollution and climate change This demands a coordinated response and guidelines from the central government to cities which are utterly lacking Big cities are key targets for improvements despite small population, they are front runners for any solutions- Economically backward urban regions are the ones with more energy consumption -deserve considerable attentions for the better technologies, more investment, and improved urban energy systems and infrastructure Slowing improvement in CO2 intensity in cities show challenges to 20% EI reduction target
Thank you Shobhakar.dhakal@nies.go.jp Shobhakar.dhakal@gmail.com
China: 1999 Regulation of Statistics Classification on Urban and Rural Population Spatial coverage: Selected areas of designated cities and towns that include: High density districts (over 1500 persons/km2) of cities at prefecture, quasi-provincial and provincial level Town proper and city proper of (i) counties under prefectures (ii) county level cities, and (iii) low density districts of cities at prefecture, quasi provincial and provincial level Selected villagers committees, residents committees and special areas with population over 3000 persons of rural towns Population coverage: both agriculture and non-agriculture population Mobility coverage: both resident hukou population and resident non-hukou population staying over six months Source: Dhakal (2008)
World primary energy use 2006 (Mtoe) Total: 11,547 OECD : 5,536 Non-OECD: 6,011 China :1,898 India : 566 China contributes 16 % to the global primary energy use in 2006 WEO, 2008
Incremental energy-related CO2 emissions by country and region, 2006-2030 (ref scenario) China contributes 20% to global energy-related CO2 emissions Total global CO2 additions in 2006-2030: 12.6 GtCO2, about half from China 2006 GigaTons CO2 Total: 27.89 OECD : 12.79 Non-OECD: 14.12 China : 5.65 India : 1.25 WEO, 2008
World and city primary energy consumption in the Reference Scenario 12,374 Mtoe 73% 7903 Mtoe 67% 81% cumulative increase in 2006-2030 come from non-oecd countries % are cities share in global Source: WEO, 2008
Urban primary energy use in China Mtoe 2006 2030 City as a % of nation al Mtoe City as a % of nation al Coal 1 059 87% 2 206 90% Oil 271 77% 648 80% Natural gas 40 81% 158 84% Nuclear 12 84% 67 87% Hydro 31 84% 76 87% Biomass & waste 10 4% 37 16% Other renewables 2 45% 27 67% Total 1 424 75% 3 220 83% Electricity 161 80% 495 83% Nuclear 0.8% Natural gas 2.8% Oil 19.0% Hydro 2.2% Biomass & w aste Other 0.7% renew ables 0.1% Coal 74.3% Primary fuel share in urban energy use in 2006 Reference Scenario For commercial energy, urban s share is much higher i.e. 84% WEO 2008; Dhakal 2008
Energy-related CO2 emissions in cities by region in the Reference Scenario US cities :4.5 Gt, 23% EU cities :2.7 Gt, 14% China cities :4.8 Gt, 24% 30.8 Gt 19.8 Gt 89% of cumulative increase in 2006-2030 comes from non-oecd countries 71% 76% WEO, 2008