Adaptation to climate variability and change in agriculture Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Variability and Change in Macedonian Agricultural Systems Skopje, 12 May 2010 Ana Iglesias Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Spain 1
Agriculture cannot solve the problem, but can be part of the solution EC white paper (2009): agriculture is the sector most impact in the EU, but the one that has largest potential for adaptation
Reasons for concern Managing the unavoidable (adaptation) Lessons from the EU initiatives Measures that make sense today and in the future: building adaptive capacity Some challenges: uncertainty, synergies between adaptation and mitigation 3
Reasons for concern Possible effect Confidence level Optimal location of crops (zones) change high Crop productivity change high Irrigation requirements increase high Soil salinity and erosion increase medium Damage by extremes increase medium Environmental degradation increase medium Pests and diseases increase medium 4
Managing the unavoidable Lessons from EU initiatives EU White paper on adaptation National Adaptation Strategies EU funded research 5
Adaptation questions What components of the farming system are particularly vulnerable, and may thus require special attention? Can optimal management decrease vulnerability to climate? What are the characteristics of optimized crop varieties? Will climate change significantly affect agricultural water demand fro agriculture? Can the water/irrigation systems meet the stress of changes in water supply/demand? 6
Optimal zones 2010 2080 Agroclimatic zones 2006 Agroclimatic zones Agroclimatic 2006 Agroclimatic zones 2006 Agroclimatic zones zones 2080 2080 Agroclimatic Alpine Alpine Atlantic Atlantic Central Central Atlantic Atlantic North North Atlantic Atlantic South South Boreal Boreal Continental Continental North North Continental Continental South South Mediterranean Mediterranean North North Mediterranean Mediterranean South South Alpine Atlantic Central Atlantic North Atlantic South Boreal Continental North Continental South Mediterranean North Mediterranean South 7
Optimal zones 2010 Agroclimatic zones 2006 2080 Agroclimatic al Alpine Atlantic Central Atlantic North Atlantic South Boreal Continental North Alpine Continental South Mediterranean North Mediterranean South Atlantic Centra 8
Crop production (Iglesias et al., 2007) Crop yield changes under the HadCM3/HIRHAM A2 and B2 scenarios for the 2080s and for the ECHAM4/ RCA3 A2 and B2 scenarios for the 2080s and ECHAM4/ RCA3 A2 scenario for the 2020s compared to baseline (Iglesias et al. 2007) 9
Decline of high quality crops Regulations may limit opportunities 10
Heat stress and drought in summer Floods, water-logging Environmental degradation New crops, energy crops 11
Water scarcity and drought Conflicts among water users 12
Kwh per m3 Understanding impacts to provide solutions 25 Energy consumption for seawater desalination 20 15 10 5 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year 13
month 9 month 0 In-country IEc team Local act. Awareness raising and consultation workshop Data request Introductory meetings Stakeholder consultation 1 Inception report Capacity building workshop Develop initial climate impact assessment Select impact analyses Stakeholder consultation 2 Initial adaptation options National dissemination consensus building workshop Final Response to climate change report 14
15
16
Role of EU policy Kyoto protocol Lisbon strategy SD strategy EU White Paper on Adaptation CAP WFD Nitrates D Energy D Local initiatives (early stages, dissemination, awareness building) 17
Natural resources dimension Technological dimension Climate change Climate policy index Vulnerability Impacts Social dimension Economic dimension Understanding how may policy modify climate risks Define strategic combination of the climate change commitments in the various policies Source: CIRCE 18
Role of RD (CAP) A flexible framework Axis 1 Farm modernization Restoring & prevention Farm advisory services Training Axis 2 Agri-env measures Payments linked to WFD Axis 3 Diversification into nonagricultural activities Leader 19
Rural development policy is a EU policy that will permit in the future: to face these differential impacts of climate change that will exacerbate territorial disparities To contribute to solidarity Provides a flexible framework to contribute to develop actions at the local level 20
Climate policy index Algeria 0.31 Egypt 0.43 France 0.62 Israel 0.48 Italy 0.61 Libya 0.30 Morocco 0.40 Spain 0.55 Syria 0.49 Values range from 0 to 1 High values indicate that current policies decrease potential impacts (the system has increased adaptive capacity, is less vulnerable) Source: CIRCE 21
Region Private and Public Adaptation HadCM3/HIRHAM B2 scenario for the period 2071-2100 (% yield change respect to baseline) Adaptation Policy Env (1) Adaptation Farm (2) Adaptation Policy Econ /Rural Dev (3) Boreal 25 to 30 34 35 to 40 Atlantic South -10 to -10-7 -5 to 0 Continental North 0 to 5 4 5 to 10 Alpine 10 to 20 23 25 to 40 Mediterranean South -50 to -25 1 0 to 20 (1) Adaptation with emphasis on water resources protection and urban development (2) Farm adaptation without policy support (private) (3) Adaptation with emphasis with protection of agricultural production and rural development 22
The past is not a reliable indicator for the future 1. Decisions with uncertainty 2. Major changes (population, water, economic) 3. Regional disparities 4. SOLUTIONS: Agricultural technology, cooperation, improved management, policy 23