Wageningen University, The Netherlands

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1 Wageningen University, The Netherlands

2 Objectives Influence of adaptation on the impact of climate change on European agriculture Improve insights in adaptation to include adaptation in assessment models to improve projections of climate change impacts at regional level

3 Climate change has impact on agriculture 2003: heatwave in Europe -> lower crop yields Projections: mainly positive effects in Northern Europe, negative in South Olesen Ciais & Bindi et al

Kyoto-protocol, sustainable energy Adaptation Climate will

4 Mitigation and Adaptation Two options to reduce impacts: Mitigation Reduction of CO 2 emissions To reduce climate change Kyoto-protocol, sustainable energy Adaptation Climate will change anyway Adapt to new conditions Until now little research on adaptation

yield decreases 2 ton/ha + Adaptive capacity Adaptation (management): heat resistant cultivar

5 How adaptation can reduce impacts Crop yields Exposure Climate change: Temperature increase of 2 C Sensitivity Potential impacts based on biophysical relationships (crop model): crop yield decreases 2 ton/ha + Adaptive capacity Adaptation (management): heat resistant cultivar that increases crop yield with 1 ton/ha Vulnerability Actual impacts: crop yield decreases 1 ton/ha

6 Potential impacts of climate change Management and adaptation: actual impacts of climate change

7 Studies on agricultural adaptation Crop models (crop yields) Developed for field level application Calibrated with data from experimental farms Potential/water limited yields Adaptation strategies: cultivar, sowing date, irrigation Validation at regional level unsatisfactory Ricardian analysis (farmer s income) Empirical, cross-sectional Implicitly includes adaptation (e.g. switch crops) Farm level needs to be taken into account Current management and adaptation To simulate actual impacts of climate change

8 Conceptual framework Region Explaining factors Regional conditions Biophysical (climate, soil,...) Socio-economic (welfare, technology, prices, ) Policy (subsidies, regulations,..) Ecosystem services Regional farm performance Farmers income Crop yields Agricultural biodiversity Farm Farm(er) characteristics Intensity Economic size Agricultural area Crop diversity Objectives. Farm performance Farmers income Crop yields Agricultural biodiversity

9 Methodology Extensive data for European Union (old 15 countries) Agricultural statistics (FADN) More than farms In 100 regions From Inputs fertilizer use, crop protection, irrigation, size, land use, Outputs crop yields, farmers income Outputs from crop models MARS project (CGMS; based on WOFOST) Climatic data Socio-economic data

Methodology Statistic models Comparisons among Regions with different climate and management conditions F.e. The Netherlands and Spain Years with different conditions F.e. cold and warm years

10 Methodology Statistic models Comparisons among Regions with different climate and management conditions F.e. The Netherlands and Spain Years with different conditions F.e. cold and warm years Statistical data with crop model simulations Actual impacts and potential impacts based on biophysical relationships Exposure Difference gives insight in management and adaptation Sensitivity + Adaptive capacity Vulnerability

Mediterrean regions: f.e. more profitable crops Climate is important, but also: management

11 Spatial variability Yields of most crops highest in North-West Europe Wheat yields Farmers income per hectare But: farmer s income per hectare not related to crop yields Adaptation in Mediterrean regions: f.e. more profitable crops Climate is important, but also: management Regional level: good socio-economic conditions Farm level: Larger scale Higher intensity Specialized land use

12 + Profitability per awu (fnv/awu) Spatial variability: impacts of regional conditions and farm characteristics a) economic b) size + socio-economic arable organic subsidies/ha area LFA altitude organic altitude LFA temperature precipitation intensity Profitability per ha (fnv/ha) intensity temperature economic precipitation size socio-economic arable subsidies/ha area + Productivity (maize yield) c) precipitation temperature organic LFA irrigated area crop area intensity arable area economic size socio-economic altitude subsidies/ha - Productivity (crop yield) + - Productivity (crop yield) + - Productivity (wheat yield) + Optimal management depends on what to optimize Vulnerability and adaptive capacity differ among measures of farm performance

13 + Stability (crop yield) Temporal variability: impacts of regional conditions and farm characteristics a) intensity b) arable + irrigated area area economic size temperature crop precipitation area variability in crop arable temperature area precipitation area subsidies/ha intensity temperature subsidies/ha economic variability in size precipitation Adaptive capacity (crop yield) Trend in profitability per ha (fnv/ha) + c) temperature subsidies/ha trend in temp precipitation trend in prec arable area (trend in) intensity (trend in) economic size - Productivity (crop yield) + - Productivity (crop yield) + - Trend in productivity (crop yield) + High productivity high stability High productivity high capacity to adapt to higher temperatures Trend in productivity trend in farmers income

14 Trends en temporal variability Factors important for spatial variability influence trends en temporal variability in farm performance But regions and farms that seem better adapted to prevailing conditions are not better adapted to climate variability r (Ywat,temp) Relationship temperature and wheat yields r (yield, temp) Potential impacts (CGMS, water limited yields): Temperature especially negative in M dit i Actual impacts (data): Especially negative effect on (actual) wheat yields in North-West Europe

15 Trends en temporal variability Regional adaptation to climatic conditions seems mainly dependent on prevailing conditions An adaptation: regional farm diversity Farm diversity SD (%) particularly high in Mediterranean regions a strategy to adapt to unfavourable conditions (i.e. high temperatures and droughts) low high Wheat yield (t/ha) Little diversity -> farms respond similarly -> regional impact of climate variables Wheat yield (t/ha) Large diversity -> farms respond differently -> no regional impact of climate variables

Projections of crop models Particularly in

variability on maize yields differ largely

(1990-2003) Due to management en adaptation (f.

between between actual yields and potential

16 Projections of crop models Particularly in Mediterranean regions effects of climate variability on maize yields differ largely between statistics and CGMS crop model ( ) Due to management en adaptation (f.e. other cultivars) Difference Relationship between between actual yields and potential water limited yields yields Relationship actual yields and potential yields

17 Adaptation strategies Econometric analysis: translog distance function Interactions between Inputs (management) External factors (climate, subsidies) Outputs (outputs of wheat, maize, other crops, other agricultural activities in ) Analysis: f.e. Where will irrigation give more benefits than costs? Adaptation strategies in management Irrigation Fertilizer use Crop protection use Crop choice Farm size Subsidies Impacts of adaptations differ per region and per farm as farms have adapted to prevailing conditions For example: In Greece increase in irrigated area can increase outputs (in ), in Italy the costs will be higher than the benefits?

18 Adaptation in impact assessment models Exposure Sensitivity based Sensitivity on current management + Capacity to adapt to Adaptive capacity current management? Vulnerability Step 1: impact of climatic conditions and current management Step 2: impact of climate change and adaptation in management Feedbacks needed between different models (e.g. crop model and economic model) Only then actual yields and actual impacts can be projected

19 Crop models need improvement Region type Farm size Intensity Land use Biophysical conditions Socio-economic and policy conditions Hazard exposure Farm type Farm diversity Management type Crop type Crop suitability Irrigation Market demand Management and technology Maximize profit (yield) Minimize risk Other objectives and constraints Biophysical processes Potential/water limited yield Actual yield

20 Conclusions Management and Adaptation can largely reduce impacts of climate change and climate variability Impacts seem less severe for Mediterranean regions than projected by earlier studies Crop models need improvement to simulate actual yields adequate linking with economic and land use models are needed Farmers continuously adapt Adaptation should be an integrated part of models used to simulate crop yields and other ecosystem services provided by agriculture, rather than a last step in a vulnerability assessment

21 Current related work SEAMLESS: System for Agricultural and Environmental Modelling: Linking European Science and Society ( Models at multiple scales and multiple domains Proposal: Assessing the adaptive capacity of Agriculture in the Netherlands to the impacts of climate change under different market and policy scenarios Use PhD project results and SEAMLESS models FAO technical paper: FAO and adaptation to climate change in the European region: Central and Eastern Europe Overview to give direction; new references are welcome

22 Thanks for your attention

European Journal of Agronomy

Europ. J. Agronomy 32 (2010) 91 102 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect European Journal of Agronomy journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/eja Adaptation to climate change and climate variability