Feasibility of a Nuclear Power Program in Belarus

IAEA Interregional workshop on Long Range NE Program Planning and Strategy Development Vienna, Austria 14-17 June 2010 1 Feasibility of a Nuclear Power Program in Belarus Anatoli Yakushau Joint Institute for Energy and Nuclear Research - Sosny JIENR - Sosny

2 Contents Part 1: Energy system planning in Belarus: Current status of demand and supply of energy. Optimization of energy supply. Part 2: Scientific support program activities. Activities related to public information and acceptance. Part 3: Economic assessment using the INPRO methodology: Tools used for assessment. Results of assessment.

3 Part 1 Energy system planning in Belarus

4 November 14 2009 JIENR - Sosny 4

5 Background information Population 9.5 mill. People Territory - about 300 000 sq. Km Electricity generation - 35 TWh (2006) Generation capacity- 7843 MW (2006) GDP growth rate forecast- 5-6 %/year Electricity consumption growth rate forecast- 2% - 2.5 % per year JIENR - Sosny 5

Electricity Consumption Total - 36 TWh (2008) 6 Household 26% Industry 58% Agriculture 11% Transport 5% JIENR - Sosny 6

7 Heat consumption Total 73.5 Mill. Gcal,, 2008 Household 40% Industry 52% Agricalture 6% Transport 2% JIENR - Sosny

Primary Energy Consumption Total-37 Mill TCE, 2008 8 Oil 44% Coal 1% LPG 1% Wood 2% Peat 3% Natural Gas 49% 20 Bill cub. m JIENR - Sosny 8

9 Electricity Generation System Fuel - imported natural gas and fuel oil About 50% of electricity generated by co-generation power plants About 60% of units have to be out of operation up to 2010 95 % of electricity is generated by using natural gas Only one source of fuel supply JIENR - Sosny 9

10 JIENR - Sosny 10

11 Electricity Grid 750 kv 763 km 330 kv 3739 km 220 kv 2281 km 110 kv 16156 km JIENR - Sosny 11

Monthly Maximum and Minimum 12 Load Demand MW 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 6210 5711 5134 5996 3605 4603 2684 3169 3316 2531 4586 4523 2514 2513 5692 4841 5474 4761 2776 2724 5807 3318 3276 2773 1000 J a n F e b M a r c h A p r i l M a y J u n e J u l y A u g S e p O c t N o v D e c JIENR - Sosny 12

13 Technologies and Fuel Types Capacity, MW Number of Units Fuel 150-320 14 Gas Technology Steam Turbine 150-250 11 Gas/fuel oil Co-generation 35-135 15 Fuel oil Co-generation 15-110 20 Gas/fuel oil Co-generation 4-10 11 Fuel oil Co-generation JIENR - Sosny 13

Installed Capacities and 14 Generation Condensing Turbines Co-generation Turbines Combine Cycle Unit Electricity Generation Heat Generation 3330 MW 4327 MW 37 MW 34 Bill kwh/year 33 Mill Gcal/year JIENR - Sosny 14

15 Share of Equipment, Which Has to Be Replaced 60.0% 50.0% Condense turbine Boilers Co-generation turbine 57.0% 50.4% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 1.7% 4.3% 2.3% 5.1% 31.0% 27.0% 9.9% 2005 2010 2015 2020 19.0% 15

16 Electricity Demand Forecast Bill kwh 65.0 60.0 55.0 50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 35.0 39.3 42.5 47.1 51.8 57.0 62.6 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

17 Peak Load Demand Forecast 11000 10000 8931 9828 10807 MW 9000 8000 7000 6782 7334 8128 6000 5000 5871 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Available Installed Capacity ( Do Nothing Option ) 18 14000 Gas Turbine 12000 New CHP M W 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Reconstruction CHP Hydro CHP<50 MW Existent CHP Existent Condense Turbine 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 1 2 0 2 4 2 0 2 7 2 0 3 0 2 0 3 3 Peak Load Demand

19 Computer Software Energy Power Evaluation Program (ENPEP), DOS and WINDOWS versions MAED WASP LDC BALANCE LEAP MESSAGE DECADES MESAP JIENR - Sosny 19

20 Nuclear Units and Sites Option 1 2 units PWR-1000, 2500 US$/kW There are 6 sites for construction Option 2 3 units PWR-640, 3000 US$/kW There are 6 sites for construction Additional infrastructure development cost is taken into account JIENR - Sosny 20

Scenarios to be chosen for WASP Analysis 21 All Fuels NG NG & Coal NG & Nuclear Technology Type Condensing Turbine Combine cycle units Condensing Turbine Combine cycle units Condensing Turbine Combine cycle units Condensing Turbine Combine cycle units JIENR - Sosny Fuel Type Natural gas Nuclear Coal Natural gas Natural gas Natural gas Coal Natural gas Natural gas Nuclear Natural gas 21

Primary Energy Resources Price Forecast 22 900.0 869.8 800.0 700.0 723.8 628.8 600.0 590.0 543.8 US$/TCE. 500.0 400.0 360.0 470.0 385.0 460.0 300.0 200.0 100.0 0.0 265.0 230.0 90.5 80.0 33.2 300.0 100.0 100.0 35.8 135.0 110.4 38.4 170.0 121.8 40.9 216.3 134.5 43.5 269.3 148.5 46.2 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Fuel oil Nat ural gas Coal Wood Nuclear

Optimal Capacity Structure for Natural gas and Coal Scenario 23 MW 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 New Coal Condense Turbine Reconstruction Condense Turbine Gas Turbine New Coal CHP Reconstruction CHP 2000 Existent CHP 0 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 1 2 0 2 4 2 0 2 7 2 0 3 0 2 0 3 3 Existent Condense Turbine

Optimal Capacity Structure for Natural gas Scenario 24 MW 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 1 2 0 2 4 2 0 2 7 2 0 3 0 2 0 3 3 New Condense Turbine Reconstruction Condense Turbine Gas Turbine New CHP Reconstruction CHP Existent CHP Existent Condense Turbine

Optimal Capacity Structure for All Fuel Scenario 25 MW 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 NPP Coal PP Reconstruction Condense Turbine New Gas Turbine New CHP 2000 Reconstruction CHP 0 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 1 2 0 2 4 2 0 2 7 2 0 3 0 2 0 3 3 Existent CHP

26 Expected Generation Cost 18.00 16.00 14.00 Cent/kW h 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 NG NG-Coal All Fuel

27 Problem of NPP Integration Operation of electricity generation system with nuclear units 640 MW or 1000 MW capacity. Reasonable margin reserve and LOLP, which provide reliable electricity supply. Recommendation on units maintenance schedule. JIENR - Sosny 27

28 Hourly Load 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 4370 MW 3430 MW Steam turbine Co-generation Units Winter working day 1000 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

29 Possible Options to be Analyzed Cutting-off consumers if unit forced outage is happened. Construction of pump storage hydro plan. Construction of electrolyzes for hydrogen generation that can be used as raw materials for production of fertilizers. Export electricity Other option

30 Integration of nuclear power into the Belarus electricity and centralized heat supply system comprised the following tasks: An assessment of recent electricity and heat demand projections and scenarios, and, if necessary, their extension up to the year 2035; Based on the demand assessment, selection of electricity and heat demand scenarios for this study; Collection and evaluation of historical electricity and heat load characteristics and development of specific load curves for this study; Collection of techno-economic performance data and characteristics of existing electricity and heat generation units as well as transmission and distribution infrastructures; Development of base year (2005) electricity and centralized heat balances; Preparation of MESSAGE specific data inputs; Calibration of the model to satisfactorily reflect the base year electricity and centralized heat balances; Selection of a menu of new technology options for the study period 2005 2035. Application of MESSAGE for the development of optimal electricity and heat supply strategies, capacity expansion plans, taking into account all available supply options including rehabilitation of existing plant and equipment.

31 Scenarios Business-as-Usual (BAU) Scenario continues to rely on current types of fuel imports, fosters rehabilitation of malfunctioning and aging plant and equipment or replacement by new high- efficient gas-fired combined cycle and gas turbine plants as well as dual large and small fuel boilers. Coal (CG) Scenario considers new coal plants for the diversification and expansion of the power system in addition to the options listed under BAU. Nuclear Policy (NP) Scenario extends the CG scenario and includes the potential addition of up to 2 000 MW of nuclear generating capacity with first grid connection not before 2017. Technology (TECH) Scenario considers all technological options without any absolute capacity limitation.

32 Power Plant Dispatch in Winter (left) and During a Typical Summer Working Day (right)

Primary fuels demand for heat and power generation in the NP Scenario 33

34 Part 2 Scientific support program activities

Scientific Support of Development of Nuclear Energy 35 Scientific Support of Development of Nuclear Energy is an activity, which includes development and innovation optimal technologies for increasing of nuclear safety, providing more effective radiation and environment protection, physical protection of nuclear facilities and materials and improving effectiveness of the objects of nuclear energy. In accordance with Assignments of President of Republic of Belarus #565 dated November 12 2007 JIENR Sosny is responsible for this activities. JIENR - Sosny 35

36 Scientific Support Program Activities Activity 1. Development legislation documents for regulation of nuclear energy activities Activity 2. Development of methods and tools for nuclear facilities quality control Activity 3. Mathematician modeling of the process in the nuclear reactors and other equipment of NPP Activity 4 radioactive materials waste management JIENR - Sosny 36

37 Scientific Support Program Activities (continued) Activity 5. Nuclear energy environment impact Activity 6. Improvement of physical protection of the nuclear facilities and materials Activity 7. Improvement of the education programs for students and post-graduates in the fields of nuclear energy Activity 8. International cooperation Activity 9. Analysis of public acceptance of nuclear and preparation of the documents for information mass media about nuclear energy Activity 10. Perspective development of nuclear energy utilization JIENR - Sosny 37

38 Public Acceptance of Different Energy Resources 15,4 18,2 27,9 26,8 24,3 21,6 10,9 8,0 Wind 15,2 17,3 28,1 23,1 22,7 22,9 11,9 9,4 Solar 12,8 14,6 34,6 32,3 29,2 32,5 9,1 9,7 Coal 16,2 18,3 31,0 27,7 23,4 25,6 11,8 10,1 Waste 8,8 11,1 23,6 24,3 34,3 33,2 13,7 10,4 Hydro 13,5 14,2 34,3 28,6 28,9 35,0 10,8 12,2 Peat 17,4 14,8 33,0 27,4 27,2 31,7 11,5 15,2 Wood 9,1 15,2 7,9 11,6 26,3 23,8 32,3 17,2 Nuclear 7,2 6,3 18,7 17,9 38,1 45,4 23,8 18,8 Oil 3,0 2,7 11,6 8,6 43,7 46,9 33,7 34,3 Natural gas 2008 2005 2008 2005 2008 2005 2008 2005 No Low Average Very high Availability Energy resources

Response to question Are there needs to develop nuclear power in Belarus 39 60 50 % 40 30 20 No Yes Don't know 10 0 2005 2006 2008

40 Part 3 Economic assessment using the INPRO methodology

41 Objectives of the INPRO project To perform a full-scope NESA for Belarus according to IAEA in all seven INPRO areas: NPP and NFC Safety, Infrastructure, Proliferation Resistance, Physical Protection, Waste Management, Environment and Economics, To identify follow up actions for implementation of nuclear power in Belarus and to confirm that the strategic plan for Nuclear Energy Deployment is sustainable. 41

42 Expected output A Belarus National NESA report is assumed to be included in the INPRO data base as a comprehensive reference case. The Belarus NESA report will have a structure similar to the reports from existing assessments and will contain detailed results of assessments of the planned NES deployment in all INPRO areas. Added value for INPRO Methodology 42

43 Up to date activities Kick-of Meeting in July 27 31 2009, Minsk Identification of the Problem and evaluation of human recourses. Consultancy Meeting and Training on INPRO Methodology September 28 October 2, 2009, Minsk. The meeting was being held under the following Activity Codes: INPRO Programme Area A:6 (Nuclear Energy System Assessments). Belarusian experts train in the application of INPRO Methodology. Scientific visit of four persons to Science and design centers of Russian Federation since April 18 to April 29 2010 43

44 Belarus nuclear energy system Mining and milling of uranium ore Conversion Enrichment Fuel manufacturing Outside Belarus NPP 2 units 1170 MW each, future extension has to be defined Intermediate storage of Spent Fuel (50 years in dry storage in transportable containers) Minsk Reprocessing of Spent Fuel Outside Belarus Purchase nuclear fuel Inside Belarus or Outside High level waste final disposal 44

45 Input Data for Economic Analysis Parameter Unit NPP PP Coal CC Natural gas Net electric power (P) MW 1000 100 100 Construction time (TCt) Year 6 5 5 Lifetime of the plant (tlife) Year 60 30 30 Average Load factor (Lf) % 85 70 70 Total capital cost $/kwe 2500 1700 1350 Overnight cost $/kwe 1899.5 1291.6 1025.7 Contingency cost ((CI/P)ON) $/kwe 373.3 253.8 201.6 Owners cost $/kwe 227.3 154.5 122.7 Real discount rate (r) %/year 10 10 10 Capital recavery factor %/year 10.03% 10.61% 10.61% Price per unit of electricity sold (PUES) $/kwh 0.11 0.11 0.11 Escalation price per unit of electricity sold %/year 1.5 1.5 1.5 Fixed operation&maintenance $/kwmonth 4.81 1.5 0.9 Variable operation&maintenance cost $/MWh 6.59 3.8 3.2 Heat rate kcal/kwh 2600 2100 1900 Fuel price $/Gcal 4.5 11.4 25.7 Real fuel price annual escalation rate (rfe) %/year 1.32 4.53 3.05

46 Tool used in economic analysis EXCEL tool (NEST) for calculating economic parameters, i.e. LUEC, and financial figures of merit such as IRR, etc. Several options available: According to TECDOC-1575 Use of MOX fuel Closed fuel cycle with fast reactors NEST (draft) available on CD-ROM from IAEA/ INPRO secretariat.

47 Results of Economic Analysis name LUEC (VVER-1000) LUEC (Coal unit) LUEC (Combine cycle units) IRR (VVER-1000) IRR (Coal unit) IRR (Combine cycle unit) ROI (VVER-1000) ROI (Coal unit) ROI (Combine cycle unit) total VVER - 1000 ivestments total coal unit ivestments total combine cycle ivestments NPV (VVER-1000) NPV (Coal unit) NPV (Combine cycle unit) units mills/kwh mills/kwh mills/kwh % % % M$ M$ M$ M$ M$ M$ numbers 62.52 81.47 102.88 2 500.00 170.00 135.00 15.44% 14.74% 11.35% 0.2778 0.2969 0.2582 1 520.66 60.63 12.26