Challenges for nuclear power world-wide

Transcription

1 Challenges for nuclear power world-wide wide Simposio Internacional Perspectivas Actuales de la Energia Nuclear Collegio Libre de Emeritos Madrid, April 2008 Hans Forsström, Director Division of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology

2 1. Energy and nuclear projections 2. Challenges of nuclear development Safety, availability, economy, natural resources, waste management, decommissioning, human resources, non-proliferation, public acceptance 3. Future technologies 4. Conclusions Key topics

3 Increasing interest in nuclear Why? Growing energy needs even more in electricity Security of energy supply Environmental concerns - climate change Good safety and availability Rising and volatile price of fossil fuels Improved relative economic competitiveness New applications

4 Map of Global Energy Poverty Millions of People Without Electricity Millions of People Relying on Biomass 1.6 billion people have no access to electricity, 80% of them in South Asia and sub-saharan Africa

5 World Energy Outlook Our energy future is dirty, it is expensive and it is unstable C. Mandille, IEA November, 2006 World Primary Energy Sources (Gtoe) Other Renewables Biomass Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Population ,5 8 7,5 7 6,5 World Population (Billions)

6 China energy future scenario.. CHINA 1650 Source: CIAE, July "

7 Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions LIGNITE LIGNITE COAL COAL OIL OIL NATURAL NATURAL GAS GAS SOLAR SOLAR PV PV HYDRO HYDRO BIOMASS BIOMASS WIND WIND GHG gc eq /kwh gc eq NUCLEAR NUCLEAR

8 Nuclear power - IAEA s projection

9 Increasing number of countries considering introduction of nuclear power Operating Considering

10 Status of Nuclear Power in power reactors in operation (installed capacity about 370 GWe) Almost reactor years of experience Average plant load factor: >80% Contributions to global electricity: ~15% Low electricity cost, good safety records 3+1 new NPPs connected to the grid. 7+1 constructions started, 34 reactors under construction Almost no reactors built in the west since 10 years New interest in many countries including the USA and UK

11 Challenges of the Development 1. Safety and reliability (availability) 2. Economic competitiveness and financing 3. Public acceptance 4. Uranium resources 5. Fuel and waste management 6. Human and industrial resources 7. Proliferation resistance and security 8. Infrastructures

12 Safety First Three Mile Island, Chernobyl: radical changes, strengthen IAEA s role. International Cooperation: INSAG BSP for NPP(1988), INES, cooperation with OECD/NEA, WANO, national Regulators, Safety Standards, Activities: IAEA s Safety Series, Codes and Safety Guides ( safe design, sitting, operation; regulator s purposes, functions, etc). Missions: OSART, ASSET, ESRS, IPERS-PSA, ASCOT, IRRT Number of scrams, WANO, 2005

13 The Nuclear Safety Regime The Safety Convention International Safety Standards National Policy and Strategy National Regulatory Control

14 Source: NEA and IEA: Projected costs of Generating Electricity: 2005 Update (OECD)

15 Public acceptance growing according to opinion surveys UK 2001: 19% approve, 60% disapprove 2005: 35% approve, 30% disapprove Finland 1994: 34% approve, 35% disapprove 2004: 46% approve, 25% disapprove Vote for Nuclear? USA 1983: 49% approve, 46% disapprove 2005: 70% approve, 24% disapprove Sweden, % keep existing reactors operating or expand 13% early closure

16 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE Natural Uranium Disposal

17 Uranium Resources: Red Book 2005 Is there enough? Are supplies secure? Can we meet demand?

18 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE Natural Uranium Disposal

19 Different waste types different issues El Cabril Low level waste disposal Industrial practice but not everywhere Decommissioning Industrial practice but recycling important and waste disposal necessary Storage of spent fuel Industrial practice Reprocessing Industrial practice but national policies differs Disposal of HLW or spent fuel Geological disposal accepted by experts but not implemented yet Funding important operational cost Yankee Rowe NPP

20 MAJOR NUCLEAR FUEL FORMS 37 Fuel Elements CANDU/PHWR Zircaloy clad, Natural UO 2 Fuel Ceramic Fuel Pellets 17x7 PWR 9x9 BW R 312 Fuel Elements Zircaloy clad Slightly Enriched Uranium (<5%U 235 )UO 2 VVER-1000 Zr-1%Nb clad Sightly Enriched Uranium (<5%U 235 )UO 2 Fast Breeder Reactor FUEL Stainless Steel clad, (U, Pu)O 2 (20-25% 25% Pu O 2 )

21 Spent Fuel Management 1. Closed cycle spent fuel reprocessed after storage Pu + U recycled waste disposed 2. Once-through cycle spent fuel stored and then disposed 3. Deferring a decision Storage important component, probably for decades Today only % of spent fuel reprocessed and recycled as MOX

22 Spent Fuel Reprocessing Spent Fuel Chemical and Physical Processes U Pu Gaseous Waste (Kr, Xe, I) Solid Waste (Cladding Material) Liquid Waste (HLW) (Cs, Sr, Zr, Ni, La, Pr, Y)

23 Objectives of reprocessing Utilise the natural resource better by recycling uranium and plutonium Remove material that will require safeguards Reduce the long-term radiotoxicity to simplify disposal Reduce the heat load to improve repository capacity Provide possibility to separate other valuable material

24 Disposal of HLW and spent fuel Technical solutions are available for geological repositories No disposal facility for HLW or spent fuel in operation. Delays in many programmes Only one repository, WIPP in USA, in operation for long-lived LILW Good progress for repositories for HLW or spent fuel in USA, Finland, Sweden and France, but no repository until ~2020 Important to develop a harmonized approach to safety demonstration

25 Barriers for Geological Disposal

26 Eurajoki (SF): NPP site of Olkiluoto

27 Nuclear research potential of UK 27

28 The tide is changing? Networks for higher education ENEN, ANENT Industry organised training centres Increasing emphasis on research co-operation GIF, INPRO, SNE-TP

29 29

30 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE Non proliferation Natural Uranium Disposal

31 Global Trends in Nuclear Power New initiatives proposed Multilateral Nuclear Approaches (MNA) (IAEA) Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) (USA) Global Nuclear Power Infrastructure (GNPI) (Russia) The wide dissemination of the most proliferation-sensitive parts of the nuclear fuel cycle could be the Achilles heel of the nuclear non-proliferation regime.

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33 Increasing number of countries considering introduction of nuclear power Operating Considering

34 Consideration to Launch a Nuclear Power Programme Milestones for three stages can be considered : 1. Considerations before a decision is taken 2. Preparation work for the construction, and 3. Activities to implement the first NPP Factors for consideration Timescales Human resources Regulatory Aspects Available technology Costs Funding and economics Fuel supply security Technology support Legislation Decommissioning Used Fuel and Waste Public information

35 What will be the new reactors In the short term most new reactors will be improved versions of today s reactors, EPR, AP1000, ESBWR, AREVA s EPR reactor They will provide some increased capacity, but also replace existing reactors from 2020/25 Most will be built in countries already having nuclear power Several new countries are showing increasing interest Small and Medium Sized Reactors?

36 What will be the next generation reactors In the longer term (>2035) more efficient reactors will be developed (breeders, high temperature reactors) to better use the uranium resource New applications, e.g. desalination, hydrogen production Important international cooperation has started, GIF, INPRO Demonstration and prototype reactors are considered The closed fuel cycle with recycling of uranium, plutonium and some waste products will develop

37 French Studies Live extension of present PWRs Replaced by Gen III by 2020 and Gen IV fast reactors by A transition phase between present reactors and 4 th generation systems Source: EDF, France Plant life extension beyond 40 years Existing fleet 40-year plant life Generation Generation Average plant 37 life : 48 years

38 Fusion Deuterium and Tritium fuse at high energy (10 kev), producing Helium and an energetic (14 MeV) neutron Mass is converted to energy according to Einstein s formula Fusion power plant after 2050

39 Role of the international community Ensure that adequate safety standards are applied worldwide Ensure non-proliferation through safeguards and multilateral approaches Ensure that experiences are shared and that good practices are communicated Promote international co-operation on implementation Promote international co-operation on research and development Transfer of knowledge and experiences to developing countries

40 Conclusions Several factors have has led to a renewed interest in nuclear power: Energy demand and security Climate change discussion Cost of oil and gas Slower than expected introduction of renewables Continued safe operation and increasing availability Limited nuclear growth at present, mainly in Asia But increasing interest in many countries, both those who have nuclear and those who don t have

41 Conclusions Challenges Safety and reliability Economic competitiveness and financing Public acceptance Uranium resources Fuel and waste management Human and industrial resources Proliferation resistance and security Infrastructures Technology will develop towards better resource use Fusion?

42 IAEA atoms for peace.