Nuclear energy in Europe Contribution to the Future Low Carbon Energy Society Dr. Ákos Horváth Director General, MTA Centre for Energy Research (HU) akos.horvath@energia.mta.hu EASAC/JRC meeting on Nuclear Energy and Management of Spent Fuel, Bergen, Norway, June 2015
Outline Nuclear energy production in Europe - overview New units or licence extension (long term operation)? The role of research in maintaining competence and improve nuclear safety Sustainable development: the next generation of the research reactors - fission and fusion
Energy challenge: Primary energy use reduction = More electricity use Increase of the electricity use worldwide H.A. Abderrahim (SCK-CEN)
Energy challenge: Energy and armed conflicts are correlated H.A. Abderrahim (SCK-CEN)
Does nuclear fit into the general European energy policy objectives? Energy supply security Climate change mitigation Competitiveness
Energy supply security Source: IEA: WEO 2014, p. 412. Low nuclear case: energy self-sufficiency decreases, especially for countries with high nuclear share
Nuclear power can play a role in CO 2 abatement & energy security CO 2 emissions avoided annually by nuclear power 1971-2040 Gt2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Share of energy demand met by domestic sources and nuclear power in 2040 1971 1980 2000 2020 2040 China United States European Union Japan Indigenous Nuclear Indigenous production & production nuclear Korea Net imports By 2040, an expanded nuclear fleet has saved almost 4 years of current CO 2 emissions & for some countries has improved energy security & balances of energy trade
Climate change mitigation Cost-effective mitigation: more nuclear than in the High Nuclear Case Source: IEA: WEO 2014, p. 406.
Competitiveness New units in Hungary Source: IEA: WEO 2014, p. 371.
Nuclear energy production in Europe - overview In Europe, 132 reactors are operating (Jan.2014), producing 27% of electricity in average. Currently two new reactors are under construction (EPR ): sites in Finnland and France. Slovakia is continuing a previously suspended project (VVER- 440). Some other countries are preparing new units: UK, Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Romania Source: IAEA PRIS 2014
Age statistics of the nuclear reactors in the World Reactors in the EU countries are older than 25 years Source: IAEA PRIS 2014
Long term operation of the present fleet 50 100 199 0 Retirements of nuclear power capacity 1990-2040 2000 201 0 2013 2020 2030 2040 Accoding to the EU Roadmap 2050, the nuclear energy share in the electricity production vary between 2-20%. GW 150 200 38% of today s capacity to retire by 2040 European Union United States Japan Others The energy needs by 2050 can be produced with 100 units of 1400MWe each. The service life of the operating units can be extended for 900 M in average (also generating jobs).
The role of R&D in effective lifetime assessment The life limiting component of a NPP is typically the pressure vessel, others can be replaced. How the lifetime of a reactor pressure vessel can be extended? Ageing assessment is made during design with conservative assumptions, because operative conditions are not known, ageing laws had not been validated through actual operating experience For a more realistic lifetime assessment, R&D programs provide better knowledge of initial conditions operating conditions ageing mechanisms
Reactor evolution 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 Reactors Lifetime extension Gen IV Operating Generation II Generation III, III+ GEN II, III, III+ can do the CO 2 job by 2050 technology exists: need ~20 plants on-line/year til 2050 but policy making and industry must be able to act fast political risk is high financial risk is high network capacity not always suitable long construction times human capital intensive value for money Sustainability is not solved: supply of fresh fuel and management of spent fuel. H.A. Abderrahim (SCK-CEN)
France United Kingdom Canada USA Brazil Members EU of the Generation IV International Switzerland Forum The development program of Generation IV reactors Japan Argentina South Africa South Korea Lead Fast Reactor Fast neutron systems: burning the waste legacy optimal use of resources reducing proliferation Sodium Fast Reactor Gas Fast Reactor Thermal neutron systems: more efficient energy than presently hydrogen production Supercritical Water-cooled Reactor Very High Temperature Reactor Molten Salt Reactor http://www.gen-4.org/gif/
Burning the waste legacy, optimising resources Relative radiotoxicity Uranium natural Advanced reprocessing transmutation of spent fuel spent fuel reprocessing no reprocessi ng Time (years) Duration Reduction 1.000x Volume Reduction 100x H.A. Abderrahim (SCK-CEN)
European strategy on the development of fast reactor systems ESNII: European Sustainable Nuclear Industrial Initiative 2008 2012 2020 SFR Reference technology ASTRID Prototype (SFR) LFR Alternative technology MYRRHA ETPP European demonstration reactor (LFR) GFR Supporting infrastructures, research facilities Fuel manufacturing, irradiation facility ALLEGRO Experimental reactor (GFR) European prototypes GENIV
Fusion Roadmap Once ITER is constructed (2014-2020), DEMO will be prepared based on the operation experience gained from ITER (2021-2030). ITER is the key facility in the roadmap. ITER will break new ground in fusion science and the European laboratories should focus their effort on its exploitation. A solution for the heat exhaust in the fusion power plant is needed. A reliable solution to the problem of heat exhaust is probably the main challenge towards the realization of magnetic confinement fusion. The risk exists that the baseline strategy pursued in ITER cannot be extrapolated to a fusion power plant. A dedicated neutron source is needed for material development. Irradiation studies up to ~30 dpa with a fusion neutron spectrum are needed before the DEMO design can be finalized. Industry must be involved early in the DEMO definition and design. EFDA Roadmap 2012.
Summary Nuclear power can play a role in energy security & carbon abatement but financing & public concerns are key issues The operation of nuclear plants during their lifetime should be supported by scientific programs in order to maintain safety and keep the option for licence extension. The present generation of reactors can contribute to the energy mix, but part of the fleet should be replaced from 2020. Sustainability is a key issue which can only be solved with the development of advanced reprocessing and the deployment of GenIV fast reactors. Fusion reactors can also contribute to the low carbon economy in the future, but key technology elements has to be developed.
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