A Framework for Ecosystem Impacts Assessment Using an Indicator Approach Patricia A. Livingston 1, K. Aydin 1, J. Boldt 2, J. Ianelli 1, and J. Jurado-Molina 2 1 Alaska Fisheries Science Center Seattle, WA, USA 2 JISAO, University of Washington, Seattle, WA USA
Overview Alaskan context Evolution and Description of the Framework Documentation of status and trends Evaluation of past and present impacts Prediction of future trends and management options
US Legislation on Environmental Protection National Environmental Protection Act 1969 Marine Mammal Protection Act 1972 Clean Water Act 1972 Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act 1976 Endangered Species Act 1973
Ecosystem-based Management Actions TAC less than ABC for individual stocks OY cap on total groundfish yield No target fisheries on forage Short-tailed tailed albatross take restrictions, Seabird bycatch mitigation devices Conservative single species targets Catch TAC ABC < OFL CAP on TOTAL TARGET CATCH Total yield < 2 million tonnes No fishing in Steller sea lion foraging area and minimum biomass threshold for sea lion prey Trawl closures, bottom trawling restrictions Bycatch and discard controls
Key Pieces of the Framework Establish assessment ramework, objectives, Thresholds, indicators Gather information Historical status and trends Ecosystem components and stressors Generate management Alternatives, Future scenarios MODELS for Prediction DECISION Expert judgment to analyze impacts And provide advice
Ecosystem Measures and Influences Closed Areas Status Catch Levels Gear Effort Management Physical Forcing
Ecosystem Impacts Assessment Framework: Objectives, sub-objectives, ecosystem indicators SUBOBJECTIVES More focused, tangible Relate to key areas/issues for protection May vary across ecosystems depending on differences in threats, stressors, ecosystem characteristics Thresholds relate to legal mandates under various laws INDICATORS Measures of particular ecosystem attributes Qualitative analysis of change used when targets/thresholds are not defined Requires expert judgment
Ecosystem Processes ECOSYSTEM DEFINITION Populations and communities of interacting organisms and physical environment with characteristic trophic structure and material (energy) cycles OBJECTIVES FOR ECOSYSTEM PROTECTION Maintain Predator/prey relationships Maintain Energy/flow balance Maintain Habitat and Diversity
Objectives for Ecosystem Protection: Maintain predator-prey prey relationships pelagic pelagic forage availability spatial/temporal conc. of fishery impact on forage fish removals of top predators introduction of non-native native species Maintain diversity species species diversity functional (trophic( trophic,, structural habitat) diversity genetic genetic diversity Maintain energy flow and balance CLIMATE and FISHING human-induced energy redirection system system impacts attributable to energy removal
Ecosystem Impacts Assessment Framework: Objectives, sub-objectives, ecosystem indicators OBJECTIVE: MAINTAIN PREDATOR/PREY RELATIONSHIPS SUBOBJECTIVE1: Sustain top predator populations THRESHOLD: Catch levels high enough to cause the biomass of one or more top level predator species to fall below minimum biologically acceptable limits INDICATORS: Population status of top predator species Bycatch levels of sensitive top predators that lack population estimates (sharks, birds) Trophic level of the catch
Effects Analysis Objective Subobjective Significance Threshold Indicators Predator- prey relationships Pelagic forage availability Fishery induced changes outside the natural level of abundance or variability for a prey species relative to predator demands Population trends in pelagic forage biomass (quantitative - pollock,, Atka mackerel, catch/bycatch trends of forage species, squid and herring) Spatial and temporal concentration of fishery impact on forage Fishery concentration levels high enough to impair the long term viability of ecologically important, nonresource species such as marine mammals and birds Degree of spatial/temporal concentration of fishery on pollock,, Atka mackerel, herring, squid and forage species (qualitative) Removal of top predators Catch levels high enough to cause the biomass of one or more top level predator species to fall below minimum biologically acceptable limits Trophic level of the catch Sensitive top predator bycatch levels (quantitative: sharks, birds; qualitative: pinnipeds) Population status of top predator species (whales, pinnipeds,, seabirds) relative to minimum biologically acceptable limits Introduction of nonnative species Fishery vessel ballast water and hull fouling organism exchange levels high enough to cause viable introduction of one or more nonnative species, invasive species Total catch levels
Effects Analysis (cont.) Objective Subobjective Significance Threshold Indicators Energy flow and balance Energy re- direction Long-term changes in system biomass, respiration, production or energy cycling that are outside the range of natural variability due to fishery discarding and offal production practices Trends in discard and offal production levels (quantitative for discards) Scavenger population trends relative to discard and offal production levels (qualitative) Bottom gear effort (qualitative measure of unobserved gear mortality particularly on bottom organisms) Energy removal Long-term changes in system-level biomass, respiration, production or energy cycling that are outside the range of natural variability due to fishery removals of energy Trends in total retained catch levels (quantitative)
Effects Analysis (cont.) Objective Subobjective Significance Threshold Indicators Diversity Species diversity Catch removals high enough to cause the biomass of one or more species (target, nontarget) ) to fall below or to be kept from recovering from levels below minimum biologically acceptable limits Population levels of target, nontarget species relative to MSST or ESA listing thresholds, linked to fishing removals (qualitative) Bycatch amounts of sensitive (low potential population turnover rates) species that lack population estimates (quantitative: sharks, birds, HAPC biota) Number of ESA listed marine species Area closures Functional (trophic, structural habitat) diversity Catch removals high enough to cause a change in functional diversity outside the range of natural variability observed for the system Guild diversity or size diversity changes linked to fishing removals (qualitative) Bottom gear effort (measure of benthic guild disturbance) HAPC biota bycatch Genetic diversity Catch removals high enough to cause a loss or change in one or more genetic components of a stock that would cause the stock biomass to fall below minimum biologically acceptable limits Degree of fishing on spawning aggregations or larger fish (qualitative) Older age group abundances of target groundfish stocks
MANAGEMENT INDICATORS Time trends in bottom trawl effort 3500 2,500,000 Eastern Bering Sea 4 Observed bottom trawl duration (24hr days) 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 GOA AI BS Total catch (t) 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 Total catch Trophic level of catch 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 Total catch and trophic level of catch 3 2 1 Trophic level (catch) Longline effort (1,000 hooks) 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Year Seabird bycatch and fishing effort 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 Effort (1000 hooks) 5,000 Number of seabirds 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Year Incidental take of seabirds Total Catch (tons) 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 BSAI Non-target 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Amount and composition of non-target fish species in catch
ECOSYSTEM STATUS INDICATORS Seabird population trends Seabird Population Trends Fish community size spectrum Frequency 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 N. Bering/Chukchi SE Bering SW Bering Gulf of Alaska Southeast Negative trend No discernable trend Positive trend Index Environmental fluctuations Pacific Decadal Oscillation 4.00 3.00 PD O 5-month running mean 15-m onth running m ea n 2.00 1.00 0.00-1.00-2.00 ln (N +1) 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 3.16 ln (length midpoint +1) 3.65 3.98 Size frequency distribution all fish 4.23 4.42 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 Year 11.000-12.000 10.000-11.000 9.000-10.000 8.000-9.000 7.000-8.000 6.000-7.000 5.000-6.000 4.000-5.000 3.000-4.000-3.00-4.00 1900 1905 Biomass (t 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Status of structural habitat biota SEAPENS/WHIPS 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 Ye a r Population trends of non-target fish species 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 YEAR
The Framework: Part 1 Evaluate Present Status Ecosystem Considerations Section Accompanies single species stock assessment advice to North Pacific Fishery Management Council since 1995 Provides status and historical trend information of ecosystem components using scientific information from a variety of experts and agencies: Assess Present Status Contains species, community, and ecosystem-level indicators and indicators of environmental and human impacts Track efficacy of ecosystem-based management efforts Meets the national fishery management scientific information requirement (National Standard 2) to include information on past, present, and possible future condition of the stocks, marine ecosystems, and fisheries being managed in the stock assessment and fishery evaluation reports provided to managers.
The Framework Part 2: Moving Beyond Status and Trends Need for Ecosystem Assessment Requires an ecosystem impacts assessment framework Prediction of possible future trends under various management strategies: MODELS Provide guidance on possible aggregate effects of fishing and climate that are not captured under single species assessments Uses NEPA as the umbrella legislation for providing an ecosystem-based management framework that considers the ecosystem first
Ecosystem Impacts Assessment Framework: PREDICTION KEY CONSIDERATIONS 1. MODELS that incorporate processes of interest 2. MANAGEMENT ALTERNATIVES to evaluate Annual quota-setting Management strategy evaluation of policies 3. SCENARIOS of future environmental state
Impacts Analysis Elements: Predefined thresholds or amounts of acceptable change in an indicator Expert judgment Falling below threshold or too much change in indicator triggers action or eliminates management alternative Performed at ecosystem and individual fishery level Spawning Biomass B msy B 0 (unfished) New overfishing level 0 F msy Percent change from baseline Stock Catch Fishing Mortality Change in Discards by Management Alternative 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0-20.0-40.0-60.0-80.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Discards Management Alternative Threshold Old overfishing level
Future Challenges Improve predictive capability with regard to to climate and and human impacts on on ecosystems: model refinement and and regime shift analysis to to drive recruitment scenarios More explicit definition of of ecosystem-based management objectives: may require public involvement in in defining specific regional objectives for for management Developing objective criteria and and sensitive indicators to to measure the the success in in achieving desired ecosystem state or or condition (or (or avoidance of of undesirable states) More formalized decision-making framework