Renewable Energy in The Netherlands March 2018
Dr. Martien Visser Professor Energy Transition & Network Integration Hanze University of Applied Sciences Groningen Partner of the Energy Academy Europe E-mail: b.m.visser@pl.hanze.nl Twitter: @BM_Visser This analyses contains information of various sources and own analyses, including various estimates. Readers are encouraged to add and improve the quality of the information provided. Mar-18 Page 2
The Entrance database on Renewable Energy is regularly improved by the creation and/or refinement of (sub)models Recent improvements: In February 2018, the methodology to calculate CO2/kWh electricity was adjusted to take into account transmission losses In March 2018, the model for co-firing of wood pellets in coal-fired power stations was improved. Mar-18 Page 3
Fraction Renewable Energy until Q1 2018 The fraction renewable energy has been calculated using EU/IPCC regulations. In March 2018, the Netherlands produced 7.0% of its final energy consumption in the form of renewables. Please note that in the formal EU statistics, the amount of wind energy is based on the average wind availability during a consecutive number of years, and not on the actual availability of wind. Mar-18 Page 4
March 2018 In a Nutshell In March 2018 the fraction renewable energy was 7.0%; up from 6.6% last year Solar PV generation was 0.6 PJ, 30% higher than last year Onshore wind generation was 2.8 PJ, 20% more than last year Offshore wind generation was 1.2 PJ, similar to last year Gross final energy demand was 215 PJ, 15% more than last year Energy related CO2 emissions were 16.8 Mton, 7% more than last year The percentage renewable power was 15.5%, up from 14.9% last year Mar-18 Page 5
Content March 2018 data Monthly profiles Monthly data Energy demand in a nutshell Hourly data Miscellaneous Mar-18 Page 6
SELECTED ENERGY DATA FROM MARCH 2018 Mar-18 Page 7
Renewable Energy March 2018 Renewable Energy is produced in various forms. The most important contributors are biomass (biogas, waste, wood and bio-oil) and wind energy. In March 2018, calculated according to the EU/IPCC rules, 7.0% of the gross final energy consumption in the Netherlands was renewable energy. Mar-18 Page 8
Final Energy Demand March 2018 Energy is used for many different purposes. The most important energy applications in March have been natural gas (industry & heating) and oil for various forms of transport. Mar-18 Page 9
CO2-eq. emissions March 2018 In March 2018, the national CO2-eq. emissions including non-energy related emission and calculated using the official methods, are estimated at 16.8 Mton, 7% more than in March 2017, due to the colder weather. Non-energy (human created) CO2-eq. emissions are estimated at 2.3 Mton. Mar-18 Page 10
Power Generation Capacity March 2018 The capacity in this figure is the so-called name-plate capacity. In practice, not all capacity is available for the market due to planned and unplanned maintenance and mothballing. Mar-18 Page 11
Power Supplies March 2018 In March 2018, power consumption, including transmission losses, has been estimated at 11.3 TWh, 8% higher than last year and probably due to the cold weather. In March, significant gas-fired power was generated. Mar-18 Page 12
CO2 from Dutch Power Generation March 2018 The daily CO2 emission per kwh produced varies due to variations in the power mix. In March 2018, the average CO2 emissions from power generation, including renewables and cogeneration, are estimated at 420 g/kwh, down from 440 g/kwh in February. Mar-18 Page 13
SELECTED MONTHLY PROFILES (using daily data) Mar-18 Page 14
Daily Renewable Energy March 2018 The daily contributions of renewable energy, according to the classification by CBS. In March the average daily gross final energy demand was 1000 GWh per day. One GWh is one million kwh. An average production of 1 GWh/day requires 40 wind turbines of 3 MW each. Mar-18 Page 15
Energy Demand March 2018 Daily energy consumption shows a typical weekday-weekend pattern. Gas demand scales with ambient temperature. Mar-18 Page 16
Conventional Power Generation March 2018 Conventional power generation has been affected by wind and solar production, variations in electricity demand, and the balance between power imports and exports. Mar-18 Page 17
Daily Wind and Solar Power Production March 2018 March 2018 was rather sunny, while the average wind speed was low. The average utilization rate of onshore wind turbines was 27% and for offshore wind, it was 41%. For solar-pv, average utilization rate was 10%. 1 GWh is sufficient to provide power for a year for 300 households. Mar-18 Page 18
Contribution of Renewable Energy March 2018 In March, the percentage of renewable power varied between 8% and 33%, with an average of 15.5%. The average percentage of renewable energy was 7.0%. These percentages have been calculated using the formal EU/IPCC methodology. Mar-18 Page 19
SELECTED MONTHLY ENERGY DATA Mar-18 Page 20
Gross Final Energy Consumption 2018 (and 2017) The gross final consumption of energy is a quantity used to calculate the percentage of renewable energy. This quantity excludes the energy consumed in the energy sector (mainly due to the generation of electricity); in international shipping; in feedstock; and the energy used for (international) aviation above 6.18% of the total Mar-18 Page 21
Gas Demand (excluding gas-to-power) 2018 (and 2017) Gas consumption in March, excluding gas-to-power, was much higher than last year, due to lower ambient temperatures. Mar-18 Page 22
Gas Production 2018 (and 2017) In March, Dutch natural gas production was similar to last year. Mar-18 Page 23
Power Demand 2018 (and 2017) In March, Dutch power demand, including transmission losses, was higher than last year, probably due to much lower ambient temperatures. Mar-18 Page 24
Wind Production 2018 (and 2017) In March 2018, onshore wind production was 2.8 PJ, 20% higher than last year. Offshore wind production was 1.2 PJ, similar to last year. The average utilization of wind capacity was 27% for onshore and 41% for offshore. Mar-18 Page 25
Solar PV Production 2018 (and 2017) In March 2018, Solar PV reached 0.75 PJ. This is 30% more than in March last year. This is due to a 40% increase in SolarPV capacity in the Netherlands and slightly less sunshine. In March, the average utilization rate of solar-pv capacity was 10%. Mar-18 Page 26
Coal-to-Power 2018 (and 2017) In March 2018, coal-fired power generation has been estimated to be significantly lower than in March 2017, primarily due to the closure of two coal-fired power stations in June 32017 and due to lengthy maintenance of a major coal-fired power station. Mar-18 Page 27
Gas to Power 2018 (and 2017) For March 2018, gas-fired power generation was 20% than last year, primarily due to lower wind availability, less net power exports and less availability of coal-fired capacity. Mar-18 Page 28
LNG imports 2018 (and 2017) This figure depicts the amount of LNG injected into the gas grid. The figure excludes the usage of LNG as transport fuel. Since Spring, LNG imports are low, with the exception during the cold snap at the beginning of March. 1 PJ is equal to about 300 million m3 gas Mar-18 Page 29
Renewable Energy All Sources 2018 (and 2017) In March 2018, renewable energy production was lmost 3 PJ higher than last year. Mar-18 Page 30
Renewable Energy Percentage 2018 (and 2017) In March, the percentage of renewable energy was 7.0%, this is 0.4% higher than last year. The increase is caused by more wind and solar, and more energy production by biomass and heat pumps. Mar-18 Page 31
CO2 Emissions 2018 (and 2017) CO2 emissions in March 2018 were 7% higher than in March 2017, primarily due to lower ambient temperatures. Mar-18 Page 32
ENERGY DEMAND IN A NUTSHELL Mar-18 Page 33
National Energy Demand March 2018 Dutch government has allocated Energy Demand in four categories. These categories (and this figure) do not take into account energy demand for international shipping, aviation and feedstock. (1 GWh is about equal to the average daily energy production of 40 wind turbines of 3 MW each) Mar-18 Page 34
National Energy Demand Low Temperature Heat The primary energy requirement for Low Temperature Heat, mainly buildings and green houses, varies with ambient temperature. Mar-18 Page 35
National Energy Demand High Temperature Heat The primary energy requirement for High Temperature Heat (mainly industry) varies with the economic activities in the Netherlands and energy conservation by industry. Higher demand in industry indicates industrial growth. Mar-18 Page 36
National Energy Demand Transportation The primary energy requirement for Transportation (excluding international shipping and aviation) varies with the economic activity in the Netherlands. Fuel purchases abroad, e.g. because of lower taxes, are not included in this figure Mar-18 Page 37
National Energy Demand by Power Sector The primary energy requirement for the power sector varies mainly with the import/export balance and with the production of renewable power. This figure excludes the primary energy demand associated with power imports Mar-18 Page 38
National CO2 Emissions March 2018 This figure presents the daily CO2 emissions of each of the four energy demand sectors. The figure does not take into account the CO2 emissions by international shipping and aviation and from the energy for feedstock. (1 kton CO2 is equal to the average daily CO2 emission of 90.000 households, each using 1500 m3 gas and 3500 kwh electricity annually.) Mar-18 Page 39
National CO2 emissions Low Temperature Heat The CO2 emissions from low temperature heat, mainly buildings and green houses, vary with ambient air temperature. March was a relative cold month and hence, energy demand from buildings was very high. The figure excludes the CO2 emissions due to the production of electricity used for low temperature heating Mar-18 Page 40
National CO2 emissions High Temperature Heat CO2 emissions from high temperature heat, mainly industry, vary mainly with the economic activity in the Netherlands Mar-18 Page 41
National CO2 emissions Transportation This figure presents the CO2 emissions from Transportation (excluding international shipping and aviation). These emissions vary with the economic activity in the Netherlands. CO2 emissions from fuel that is bought abroad, is, according to international conventions, not included in this figure. Mar-18 Page 42
National CO2 emissions by Power Sector CO2 emissions from the power sector vary with the amount of coal used for power generation, the amount of renewable power produced, and the level of power imports Mar-18 Page 43
SELECTED HOURLY ENERGY DATA Mar-18 Page 44
Gas Supply March 2018 Gas supplies are related to ambient temperatures. In March the gas storages produced a significant fraction of the gas demand. Net filling of storages is represented in the graph by negative values. Gas supplies include Dutch consumption and exports Mar-18 Page 45
Gas Demand Including Gas-to-Power March 2018 Domestic gas demand in March peaked to above 100 GW. In this graph, the term industry is defined as the direct connections of about 400 major industries to the high pressure Gasunie grid. The term distribution includes households, offices, commercials and many small and medium size industries that are connected to the gas distribution grids Mar-18 Page 46
Gas Imports & Exports March 2018 In March 2018, gas imports were 140 PJ while gas exports were 160 PJ. Thus, the Netherlands was a net exporting gas country. Mar-18 Page 47
Power Imports & Exports March 2018 In March 2018, power imports (mainly from Germany and Norway) were 7 PJ, while the power exports (mainly to Belgium and UK) were 5 PJ. This graph presents the actual power flows, i.e. both intended (traded) and unintended. Mar-18 Page 48
Wind Power March 2018 March 2018 was characterized by a varying production of wind energy; the average utilization rate of the wind turbines was 27% onshore and 41% offshore. The installed wind power capacity (onshore and offshore) was about 4350 MW Mar-18 Page 49
Solar PV Power March 2018 March was very sunny; the utilization rate of solar PV installed was 10%, compared to 11% in March 2017. At the beginning of March, the installed solar power capacity in the Netherlands is about 2950 MW. Mar-18 Page 50
Onshore and offshore wind and Solar PV Power March 2018 This graph shows the combined electricity production by offshore wind, on shore wind and solar-pv. It indicates the large variations of these intermittent sources. Mar-18 Page 51
The following set of slides presents for each month in 2018 the hourly contributions of various energy sources to total power consumption in The Netherlands. Mar-18 Page 52
Power Generation January 2018 In the second week of January, gas-fired power generation peaked, due to low wind availability and net exports (negative numbers in the graph) occurring simultaneously. Mar-18 Page 53
Power Generation February 2018 In February, gas-fired power generation peaked several times, due to low wind availability and net exports (negative numbers in the graph) occurring simultaneously. Mar-18 Page 54
Power Generation March 2018 In March, gas-fired power generation peaked several times, due to low wind availability and net exports (negative numbers in the graph) occurring simultaneously. Moreover, power demand was relatively high. Mar-18 Page 55
The following set of slides presents for each week in 2018 the hourly contributions of wind and solar-pv to the total power consumption in The Netherlands. Mar-18 Page 56
Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2018 Mar-18 Page 57
Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2018 Mar-18 Page 58
Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2018 Mar-18 Page 59
Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2018 Mar-18 Page 60
Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2018 Mar-18 Page 61
Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2018 Mar-18 Page 62
Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2018 Mar-18 Page 63
Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2018 Mar-18 Page 64
Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2018 Mar-18 Page 65
Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2018 Mar-18 Page 66
Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2018 Mar-18 Page 67
Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2018 Mar-18 Page 68
MISCELLANEOUS Mar-18 Page 69
Effective Temperature March 2018 In March 2018, the average daily effective temperature (temperature including wind shield factor) was 0.5 o C, much lower than the +4.8 o C in March 2017. Mar-18 Page 70
Fuel Specific CO2 Emissions Characteristic CO2 emissions used in this presentation. Mar-18 Page 71
Epilogue b.m.visser@pl.hanze.nl This presentation is based on numerous sources on energy demand, supply and production in The Netherlands. Unfortunately, these sources do not cover the entire Dutch energy system, nor do these sources provide the insights needed for this presentation. Thus, various approximations and scaling factors were derived and used. The author would like to thank students from Hanze University of Applied Sciences in Groningen and various consulted energy experts for there feedback on the methods used. Currently, the aggregated results of this work are in good agreement with data supplied by the Dutch National Office of Statistics (CBS) and it is believed that the this presentation gives a fair presentation of the complex reality of the Dutch energy system. Nevertheless, the author invites readers to comment on the data provided to further improve this work. After all, good and reliable data are at the heart of any successful policy to make our world more sustainable. Mar-18 Page 72