Water Scarcity, Human Security and Democratization: Aspects and Impacts of the Syrian Crisis April 19 th, 2016 Nebraska Innovation Campus Conference Center - Lincoln, Nebraska Clive Lipchin. PhD, director, Center for Transboundary Water Management clivearava@gmail.com
Water Stress Worldwide: 1995-2025 Source: UNEP, GRID, Arendal, Oswald
Chronic Water Scarcity in the ME In accordance with physical water supply, availability is: Israel => 300 m 3 /cap/yr Jordan => 230 m3/cap/yr Palestinians => 95 m3/cap/yr Lebanon => 1,300 m3/cap/yr For Reference: <1000 m 3 /cap/yr - Water Poor <500 m 3 /cap/yr - Chronic Water Scarcity U.S. => 9,710 m 3 /cap/yr
Past and Present Projected Israeli Water Supply (in MCM) Western Galilee Aquifer - 139 130 Kinneret basins 559 469 Coastal Aquifer - 295 Last 17 years 1170 mcm Last 2 years 820 mcm Total annual natural production (recharge) 1509 1355 285 Eastern basins 130 Mountain Aquifer 316 291 Negev Basin 70 Arava Basin Source: Israel Water Authority, 2008
Simulated and expected droughts Drought magnitude, intensity and duration are expected to increase in the future Standard precipitation index LAST drought period NEXT drought period Data by Israel Water Authority 5
Water demand and supply Source and use 3000 2500 Desalinized Hm 3 /year 2000 1500 1000 Natural Domestic & industrial use 500 Recycled 0 1995 2000 2010 2020 2040 7
Water Consumption in Israel - According to Sectors Industry 128 MCM 7% Potable 459 MCM Domestic 691 MCM 36% Recycled and Brackish 635 MCM Agriculture 1,094 MCM %57 Total: 1,913 MCM (including 19 MCM for Nature) Supply to PA - 53 MCM (West Bank) + 5MCM (Gaza Strip); Supply to Jordan - 51 MCM Data by Israel Water Authority 8
500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1993-2013 Reclaimed Water 350 355 328 210 Corporate 158 169 180 196 204 177 127 147 138 252 271 255 271 286 260 267 286 286 80 201 219 84 80 101 80 98 94 99 101 51 42 46 51 47 46 45 50 50 47 56 53 57 59 62 59 72 72 60 65 69 65 33 103 114 130 141 129 136 138 117 122 138 138 145 150 160 171 169 160 170 157 159 178 9 387 400 395 422 418 432 Million M3 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 אחרים עפ י נתוני רשות המים אחרים שאר מפעלי מקורות שפד #ן צריכת קולחים במלמק 460 Desalination
Agricultural Efficiency Ongoing since 1960s (when major water expansion ended) Enables agricultural industry to grow without growing water
Wastewater Treatment and Effluent Reclamation Reclamation of 85% of all the effluent in Israel, for agriculture and irrigation. Ability to supply all the agricultural needs Quarterly wastewater treatment by means of ultra filtration and desalination 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% The Goal: 90% Reclamation 80% 70% 80% 70% 80% 70% 80% 70% 80% 70% 80% 70% 85% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 30% 20% 30% 20% 30% 20% 30% 20% 30% 20% 35% 30% 20% 10% 0% 11% 10% 0% 14% 10% 0% 14% 10% 0% 15% 10% 0% 10% 0% Spain China USA Australia Singapore Israel *GWI Municipal Water Reuse Markets 2010 Data by Israel Water Authority 11
Goods and Bads of Effluent Good More Water and reduced pressure on natural resources Less sewage impact on rivers and sea Cheaper than desalination Nutrients for agriculture Reduce standing water (mosquitoes etc) Centralised treatment helps public health (Health ministry bans reuse in home) Constant supply for agriculture Bads Possible microorganisms contaminant in crops? Hormonal impact on consumers? Unknown residual impact on soil/groundwater (dillution) Evaporation from storage lagoons
Desalination in Israel In 2014, desalination plants will supply 70% of the domestic water consumption 750 0 36 100 130 145 160 280 305 405 505 605 (130) Hadera Production since 12/09 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2020 (150) Sorek Production 2013 (60) Palmachim Production since 09/07 (100) Ashdod Ashkelon (110) Production 2012 Production since 12/05
Israel: the world s largest desalination plants Ashkelon: 100m3 per year Soreq: 150m3 per year Image: IDE technologies
Desalination Environmental Impacts Good Reduce stress on natural supplies Enable environmental flows/rehabilitation On Demand (reduce storage and evaporation) Bads Energy intensive (fossil fuels) Brine disposal at sea Impact on coastal environment and prime real estate
מלמק 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 284 350 386 376 94 Water Supply by Source 838 801 838 790 829 812 847 760 768 112 763 764 56 133 704 650 720 33 90 189 80 80 109 153 647 670 726 701 728 218 Corporate 196 98 152 367 370 120 161 277 306 327 544 200 203 486 277 287 294 230 160 153 In the National Network 225 414 527 249 401 316 329 250 114 70 45 51 262 214 153 157 54 168 79 238 74 139 242 224 267 133 165 197 193 240 125 90 תכנון 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Desalination כנרת 16 קניית מים מותפלים אגן החוף ירת "ן
The Water Revolution in Israel New Era 40 80 North 30 70 Coastal aquifers 100 165 Kinneret Main water resources (Mm 3 ) in the national system in 2010 Main water resources (Mm 3 ) in the national system in 2014 600 277 Seawater desalination 80 215 Mountain aquifers In 2015, 65%-80% of the drinking water in Israel will be supplied by desalination Data by Israel Water Authority 17
Shared Aquifer and Water Courses The main water resources of Jordan, which are shared with neighboring countries, are:- - The Basalt shared aquifer with the Syrian Arab Republic - The Ram (Disi) aquifer shared with Saudi Arabia - Yarmouk River and Jordan River shared with the Syrian Arab Republic, Palestine and Israel.
Surface Water Runoff Water flow within Jordanian wadis originates from three different sources : - Direct runoff from heavy rainfall. - Baseflow leaking out from groundwater bodies - Discharge from waste water treatment plants Direct runoff in Jordan lasts typically from less than an hour to very few days. This makes the management of this type of resource difficult. Dams are required
Water Demand and Resources Water Demand 2007 2010 2015 2020 2022 MCM % MCM % MCM % MCM % MCM % Municipal 366 24 382 26 418 27 463 28 481 29 Industrial 72 5 101 7 130 8 156 9 163 10 Touristic 8 1 13 1 21 1 26 2 29 2 Irrigation 1080 71 1000 67 1000 64 1000 61 1000 60 Total Water Demand 1526 100 1496 100 1569 100 1645 100 1673 100 Water Resources 2007 2010 2015 2020 2022 MCM % MCM % MCM % MCM % MCM % Groundwater Safe Yield 275 32 275 29 275 25 275 24 275 17 Artificial Recharge 55 6 55 6 55 5 55 5 55 3 Developed Surface Water 295 34 325 35 350 32 360 31 365 22 Treated Waste Water for Irrigation 87 10 110 12 150 14 200 17 220 13 Treated Waste Water for industry 4 0 7 1 15 1 23 2 27 2 Peace Treaty with Israel 50 6 50 5 50 5 50 4 50 3 Non-Renewable Groundwater (Disi+Hisban) 66 8 66 7 142 13 140 12 135 8 Non-Renewable Groundwater (Jafr+ Lajjoun) 25 3 30 3 30 3 20 2 15 1 Desalinated Water (Abu Zeigan+Aqaba) 10 1 15 2 18 2 20 2 20 1 Red-Dead Canal 500 30 Total Water Supply 867 100 933 100 1085 100 1143 100 1662 100 Water Deficit 659 563 484 502 11 Source: Jordan Water Strategy 2008-2022
Mean annual renewable groundwater budget
Example for long term decline in groundwater level Example for long term increase of salinity
Syrian Refugees in Jordan
Zaatari Refugee Camp
Zaatari Refugee Camp
Water demand increased by 300%
Disi Project Nonrenewable ground water Transboundary A 340km pipeline (1600 1700 mm) 107 MCM per year Good for 25 50 years
. 1994 2005: formal coordination and cooperation within the Peace Treaty Article 6: With the view to achieving a comprehensive and lasting settlement of all the water problems between them:.. desal-gc - RA DK DS Oct 15
Annex II article 1.Allocation 3. Additional Water: Israel and Jordan shall cooperate in finding sources for the supply to Jordan of an additional quantity of (50) MCM/year of water of drinkable standards. 1997 Sharon ordered to supply 25 mcm/y desal-gc - RA DK DS Oct 15
Jordan-Israel Peace Treaty Adassiya Dam
Jordan-Israel Peace Treaty To Jordan To Israel
Jordan-Israel Peace Treaty
Jordan-Israel Peace Treaty Deganya Pumps Carrier Pipes
Zofar Passing Wadi Araba/Emek Ha'arava
Dead Sea Shrinking
Jordan and Israel sign RSDS Water Project (Phase I) Bilateral Agreement February 26, 2015 40
Binational agreement to supply fresh water to Jordan and Israel, and to transport water to the drying Dead Sea signed on 26/2/15.
Decentralized WWT - Opportunities Environmental Protection Groundwater Public Health Exposure to sewage Services Irrigation Food security Autonomy Community development Cost savings Income generation Cost effective Cheaper than centralized Political No need for formal political settlement