Nuclear Energy: Challenges and Opportunities for a Low Carbon Future William D. Magwood, IV Director-General Nuclear Energy Agency CEIDEN General Assembly 17 November 2016 2016 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
The NEA: 31 Countries Seeking Excellence in Nuclear Safety, Technology, and Policy 31 member countries + key partners (e.g., China) 7 standing committees and 75 working parties and expert groups The NEA Data Bank - providing nuclear data, code, and verification services 21 international joint projects (e.g., the Halden Reactor Project in Norway) 2016 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 2
NEA Standing Committees NSC Nuclear Science Committee The NEA's committees bring together top governmental officials and technical specialists from NEA member countries and strategic partners to solve difficult problems, establish best practices and to promote international collaboration. 2016 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 3
NEA Nuclear Science Activities NEA joint projects in the nuclear science area under development: Thermodynamic Characterization Of Fuel debris and Fission products based on scenario analysis of severe accident progression at Fukushima Daiichi NPP (TCOFF) NEA Education and Skills & Technology (NEST) Framework 2016 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 4
NEA Nuclear Science Activities Nuclear Science Work Areas NEA joint projects in the nuclear science area under development: Thermodynamic Characterization Of Fuel debris and Fission products based on scenario analysis of severe accident progression at Fukushima Daiichi NPP (TCOFF) State-of-the-art reviews Benchmark studies Sensitivity & Uncertainty Analyses Workshop/Seminar/Conference proceedings NEA Education and Skills & Technology (NEST) Framework 2016 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 5
Recent Nuclear Science Publications Introduction of Thorium in the Nuclear Fuel Cycle (short to long-term considerations) Perspectives on the Use of Thorium in the Nuclear Fuel Cycle Extended Summary Handbook on Lead-bismuth Eutectic Alloy and Lead Properties, Materials Compatibility, Thermal-hydraulics and Technologies International Handbook of Evaluated Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiments International Handbook of Evaluated Reactor Physics Benchmark Experiments Review of Integral Experiments for Minor Actinide Management 2016 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 6
Major NEA Separately Funded Activities NEA Serviced Organisations Generation IV International Forum (GIF) with the goal to improve sustainability (including effective fuel utilisation and minimisation of waste), economics, safety and reliability, proliferation resistance and physical protection. Multinational Design Evaluation Programme (MDEP) initiative by national safety authorities to leverage their resources and knowledge for new reactor design reviews. International Framework for Nuclear Energy Cooperation (IFNEC) forum for international discussion on wide array of nuclear topics involving both developed and emerging economies. 21 Major Joint Projects (Involving countries from within and beyond NEA membership) Nuclear safety research and experimental data (e.g., thermal-hydraulics, fuel behaviour, severe accidents). Nuclear safety databases (e.g., fire, commoncause failures). Nuclear science (e.g., thermodynamics of advanced fuels). Radioactive waste management (e.g., thermochemical database). Radiological protection (e.g., occupational exposure). Halden Reactor Project (fuels and materials, human factors research, etc.) 2016 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 7
Major NEA Separately Funded Activities Secretariat-Serviced Organisations Generation IV International Forum with the goal to improve sustainability (including effective fuel utilisation and minimisation of waste), economics, safety and reliability, proliferation resistance and physical protection. Multinational Design Evaluation Programme initiative by national safety authorities to leverage their resources and knowledge for new reactor design reviews. International Framework for Nuclear Energy Cooperation forum for international discussion on wide array of nuclear topics involving both developed and emerging economies. A Current Joint Project 21 Major Joint Projects (Involving countries from within and beyond NEA membership) BSAF: The Benchmark Study of the Accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant applying the scientific information gained from the Fukushima Daiichi accident to test and improve nuclear safety analysis tools and to use those tools to support cleanup of the damaged Fukushima reactor cores. Nuclear safety research and experimental data (thermal-hydraulics, fuel behaviour, severe accidents). Nuclear safety databases (fire, commoncause failures). Nuclear science (thermodynamics of advanced fuels). Radioactive waste management (thermochemical database). Radiological protection (occupational exposure. Halden Reactor Project (fuels and materials, human factors research, etc.) 2016 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 8
Fukushima Daiichi: Learning the Lessons and Moving Forward 2016 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 9
Fukushima Daiichi: Key NEA Conclusions After the Accident NEA member countries determined that their reactors were safe to continue operation. New safety enhancements related to extreme events and severe accidents should be implemented. The Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident revealed significant human, organisational and cultural challenges. 2016 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 10
The Big Lessons Vital to Understand the Natural Hazard Risks Facing Each Plant Extreme Events can Occur at Any Time and Cannot be Predicted Recovering from Disaster is At Least as Important as Preparing for Disaster Human Aspects of Nuclear Safety May be as Important as Technical Aspects 2016 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 11 11
Safety Has Been Enhanced Since 3/11 Performed external hazard reassessments Reinforced flood protection measures Added mobile systems to cool cores and spent fuel pools Increased robustness of electrical power supplies Improved training and procedures for severe accident management Filtered vent and filtering strategies Greater consideration of safety culture characteristics and organisational factors in decision making processes 2016 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 12
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Global View of Nuclear Power Today Operating reactors, building new reactors Operating reactors, planning new build No reactors, building new reactors No reactors, new in planning Operating reactors, no new build planned Phase-out or foregoing nuclear No reactors Source data: World Nuclear Association Update 2015 2016 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 15
Nuclear Power Plants under Construction (August 2016) Location No. of units Net capacity (MW) Argentina 1 25 Belarus 2 2 218 Brazil 1 1 245 China 20 20 500 Finland 1 1 600 France 1 1 630 India 5 2 990 Japan 2 2 650 Korea 3 4 020 Pakistan 3 1 644 Russia 7 5 468 Slovak Republic 2 880 Ukraine 2 1 900 United Arab Emirates 4 5 380 United States 4 4 468 Other: Chinese Taipei 2 2 600 TOTAL: 60 59 218 2016 Organisation for Economic Source: WNA Co-operation and Development 16
Electricity Today: Still A Carbon Society Source: 2014 data from IEA (2016) Electricity Generation by Source (%), World and OECD Nuclear is the largest source of low carbon electricity in OECD countries Nuclear is the 2 nd largest low carbon power source globally (after hydro) 2/3 of global electric power production today is based on fossil fuel 2016 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 17
Recent Evolutions of the Electricity mix in France & Germany 58 units 8 units Source: IEA data 2016 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 18
Recent Evolutions of Electricity Mix in the US and Japan 99 units 43 units (operational) Source: IEA, data 2016 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 19
Electricity Mix and Carbon Footprint (g CO 2 per kwh produced) Main trends: US: coal to gas switch, RES Japan: nuclear, fossil France: fossil, RES Germany: nuclear, RES 2016 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Source: IEA, data 20
IEA 2 C Scenario: Nuclear is Required to Provide the Largest Contribution to Global Electricity in 2050 Source: Energy Technology Perspectives 2014 Source: IEA 2016 2015 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 21
At Least 12 GWe/Year of New Nuclear Would Be Needed to Meet 2 o C Scenario 2015: 8 construction starts, 8.5 GW net connected 2016 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 22
In May 2014, ministers and representatives of OECD member countries and the European Union gathered at the Ministerial Council Meeting invited the OECD to work with the International Energy Agency (IEA), the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) and the International Transport Forum (ITF) to continue to support the UNFCCC negotiations and to examine how to better align policies across different areas for a successful economic transition of all countries to sustainable lowcarbon and climate-resilient economies and report to the 2015 OECD Ministerial Council Meeting (3-5 June).
Challenge Two: Market Design and Failures Current designs of wholesale electricity markets in many OECD countries are not strategically aligned with the low-carbon transition APT Report June 2015 Electricity market design operating in most OECD countries brings challenges for low-carbon investment: Entry of renewables depresses average electricity prices Electricity price risk due to scarcity pricing affects real value of revenues and profits CO 2 prices are not providing sufficient incentives for low carbon investments Out of market financing of variable renewables such as wind and solar creates overcapacity but contributes little to security of supply due to variability and absence of dispatchability 2016 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
2015 NEA/IEA Technology Roadmap What Are the Barriers to Large Global Expansion? Distortions and failures in electricity markets that impact financial competitiveness of baseload plants Persistent questions about long-term operation of current plants and constructability of Gen III/Gen III+ plants Unanswered questions about technology, cost, and regulatory issues regarding SMRs, Gen IV reactors, and other advanced technologies In some countries, public acceptance concerns about safety in the aftermath of the Fukushima accident Continuing international concerns about non-proliferation associated with expanded use of civilian nuclear power Ongoing challenges in many countries regarding long-term high level waste storage and disposal 2016 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 25
Public Views of Nuclear Waste 2016 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 26 26
Global Progress in HLW Disposition Waste type Country Location Formation Status Projected Start of Operations HLW/SF Finland Eurajoki Crystalline rock Licence pending 2020 HLW/SF Sweden Forsmark Crystalline rock Licence pending 2025 HLW/SF Switzerland 3 potential sites LILW-LL & HLW/SF France Region of Bure (URL) Opalinus clay Callovo-Oxfordian Clay Siting regions identified Siting region identified ~2040 2025 Forsmark, Sweden Bure, France 2016 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 27
Norway Sweden Finland Switzerland Australia Netherlands Canada United States Japan Germany Great Britain Italy Republic of Korea Russian Federation Spain Poland France Slovenia Mexico Turkey 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% The Trust Factor: An Element of National Policy in NEA Member Countries Respondents agreeing that most people can be trusted Source: Data from the fifth World Values Survey (2005 2008) www.worldvaluessurvey.org 2016 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 28
Nuclear Waste and Nonproliferation: A Review of the Facts When civilian nuclear power was developed in the 1950s, recycling of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) was an integral aspect of the vison. While not ideal, plutonium from civilian SNF can be extracted for weapons purposes. But the global expansion of civilian nuclear power does not increase proliferation risks. Disposal of SNF in geologic repositories is practical and technically implementable. But direct disposal of SNF does not eliminate all potential proliferation concerns. Closure of the fuel cycle would assure that fissile material is never misused and is never allowed to enter the environment. 2016 2015 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 29
Current Reprocessing Technology: Benefits and Barriers Potential Benefits Reduces HLW Volume Reduces actinide content of HLW Waste is easily stored and managed (vitrified logs) Enables use of 25 to 30% more energy than oncethrough fuel cycle Enhances energy security Barriers and Issues Concerns about separated plutonium Could encourage global expansion of reprocessing Concerns about environmental impacts Does not significantly reduce repository requirements Cost 2016 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 30
Advanced Recycling Technology: Technology Can Provide Options In contrast to current reprocessing technology, advanced P&T can: dramatically alter long-term HLW disposition by reducing radiotoxicity and heat load in addition to volume reduce the monitoring period of final repositories to timescales within human experience simplify long-term safety issues associated with final disposition (elimination of most actinides and potentially some long-lived fission products) create pathways for secure and easily monitored use of nuclear materials Multi-recycle of transuranics can lead to very high utilization of energy content of uranium fuel 2016 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 31
NEA Nuclear Science Activities: Continuing to Explore Advanced Fuel Cycles NEA Expert Groups: The Scientific Aspects of Advanced Fuel Cycles Minor Actinide Separation Fuel fabrication Minor Actinide burning in LWRs and advanced reactors Different options for transmutation: homogeneous, heterogeneous Recycling Waste management Transition scenarios 2016 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 32
Nuclear Reactors: Generations I to IV Most New Construction Today Nearly All of Today s Operating Nuclear Plants 2016 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 33
The Vision Thing: Our Biggest Technology Challenge Early 1950s: AEC and NASA started with little; limited infrastructure, limited proven industrial support. Over about 15 years both experienced tremendous growth and both made incredible technological progress. 1970s both initiated bold steps into the future that proved difficult and costly 1980s-1990s public support and interest waned and resources reduced. AEC Chair Glenn Seaborg and NASA Administrator James Webb July 1961 Today little significant progress being made and direction is unclear. Bold initiatives have been largely left to private ventures. 2016 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 34
Nuclear Innovation 2050: Pursuing Global Agreement on the Nuclear R&D Needs for the Future What technologies will be needed in 10 years? 30 years? 50 years? What R&D is needed to make these technologies available? Is the global community doing the R&D needed to prepare for the future? Can we cooperate to do more? 2016 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 35
NEA Education Skills & Technology (NEST) Framework NEA Countries have identified a need to energise students and young professionals to pursue careers in nuclear science and technologies by: Establishing a multinational framework between interested countries to maintain & build skills capabilities Establishing international links between universities, academia, research institutes and industry Attracting technologists from other disciplines to address nuclear technology issues Involvement in solving real-world problems 2016 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 36 36
NEST: Bringing Students and Young Professionals in Nuclear R&D Students will participate in multinational projects jointly with experienced engineers and researchers, and university professors Students will work with their counterparts around the world as part of international teams to pursue advanced research projects Projects will create practical knowledge in nuclear science, advanced and innovative nuclear technologies, materials, and computer codes NEST is designed to bring a multidisciplinary approach and creativity to foster innovations for a low carbon sustainable future 2016 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 37 37
Thank you for your attention 2016 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 38