Generation Capacity Factors & Demand Side Participation Murray Thomson and John Barton Centre for Renewable Energy Systems Technology School of Electronic and Electrical Systems Engineering Loughborough University April 2012
Annual Energy Demands Weather and variation in demand Generating Capacities Merit Order Emission Factors Efficiencies FESA Grid balancing model with hourly time step for a whole year Generation Profiles Capacity Factors Fuel demands by type CO 2 emissions
Electricity demand profiles: 8760 hours from 2001 Merit Order Of Generators Modified by: Water heating, Space heating Inc. heat pumps, Electric vehicles + = net demand Balancing: Storage Interconnector Extra used in industry, Time shifting Curtail Any Surplus _ Wind Wave Tidal Solar PV Hydro Nuclear CHP Dispatchable generation Non-electric fuel use: Non-electric transport Space, water & cooking heat Plastics and chemicals Other industrial fuel use = National fuel demand Biomass Oil Gas Coal Total UK CO 2 Emissions
Power Level, GW (Arbitrary Ratio of Inputs) Simple, Default DSP Assumed Throughout FESA 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 Vehicle Charging Resistive Heating Water Heating Other Electricity Total 10 0 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 Hour of Day
2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Annual Energy, TWh 600 500 Market Rules Electricity Generation by Technology Imports Solar Total marine Biomass 400 Hydro Offshore wind 300 Onshore wind Nuclear 200 CHP - Total Gas OCGT 100 Gas CCGT with CCS Coal with CCS Oil without CCS 0 Gas CCGT without CCS Coal without CCS
Market Rules in 2050 - Supply and Demand Balance Before Smart DSP Surplus Deficit
Central Coordination in 2050 Supply and Demand Balance Before Smart DSP Surplus Deficit
Thousand Flowers in 2050 Supply and Demand Balance Before Smart DSP Surplus Deficit
Net Demand Duration Curve Before Smart DSP Measures After taking account of must-run nuclear and intermittent renewable generation Market Rules: 32 GW running for less than 10% of time Thousand flowers: Surplus Power for 34% of the year. And 26 TWh lost by curtailment/export. 44 GW
Effect Of Pumped Hydro Alone First 25 days of January, Market Rules, in 2050 Base case With pumped hydro
Smart DSP Measures Water heating time-shifted 50% and up to 7 hours Space heating time-shifted 100% but only up to 1 hour EV and PHEV battery charging time-shifted 100% and up to 7 hours
1 25 49 73 97 121 145 169 193 217 241 265 289 313 337 361 385 409 433 457 481 505 529 553 577 Power, GW 90 Effect of Smart DSP and Pumped Hydro First 25 days of January, Market Rules, in 2050 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Hours of the Year Before Smart DSP After Smart DSP
Net Demand Duration Curve After Smart DSP Measures After taking account of must-run nuclear and intermittent renewable generation 27 GW Reduced Extremes But Thousand Flowers still has a surplus for 29% of the year 16 TWh lost by curtailment/export 28 GW
Market Rules in 2050 Balance With Smart DSP Surplus Deficit
Central Coordination in 2050 Balance With Smart DSP Surplus Deficit
Thousand Flowers in 2050 Balance With Smart DSP Surplus Deficit
Capacity Factor 100% Market Rules Capacity Factors with Smart DSP 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Coal without CCS Gas CCGT without CCS Coal with CCS Gas CCGT with CCS Nuclear Onshore wind Offshore wind Hydro Biomass Total marine Solar Imports CHP - Total Gas OCGT
Capacity Factor Central Coordination Capacity Factors with Smart DSP 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Coal without CCS Gas CCGT without CCS Coal with CCS Gas CCGT with CCS Nuclear Onshore wind Offshore wind Hydro Biomass Total marine Solar Imports CHP - Total Gas OCGT
Capacity Factor Thousand Flowers Capacity Factors with Smart DSP 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Coal without CCS Gas CCGT without CCS Coal with CCS Gas CCGT with CCS Nuclear Onshore wind Offshore wind Hydro Biomass Total marine Solar Imports CHP - Total Gas OCGT
Benefits of Smart DSP Reduced generation capacity required in all 3 pathways Likely to be old plant, e.g. unabated gas Reduced curtailment > reduced fuel use Especially in Thousand Flowers But emissions saved are relatively small
Future Research in DSP: Flexi-source heating, e.g. Heat pumps or gas boiler CHP or resistive heating PHEVs forced to use fuel when electricity is short Flexible electrification of industrial processes that currently use fuels Production of synthetic fuels to use up surpluses hydrogen or hydrocarbons
Conclusions CCS plant will operate at low capacity factors soon after construction Significant periods of electricity surplus in Thousand Flowers mainly due to CHP Smart DSP cannot improve capacity factors by much allows old gas-fired plant to be decommissioned reduces, but does not eliminate surpluses Time shifting DSP is not enough modal shifts needed too Flexible generation (nuclear & CCS) highly valuable
TWhr 600 500 400 300 200 Generation by Technology Electricity generation mix in Market Rules CHP - Other Fuels CHP - Renewable Fuels CHP - Natural Gas Pumped Storage Imports Solar Tidal Wave Biomass Hydro Wind (offshore) Wind (onshore) Nuclear Gas CCGT with CCS Coal CCS Oil Gas CCGT Coal 100 0 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Year
TWhr 600 500 400 300 200 Electricity Generation by Technology Generation mix in Central Co-ordination CHP - Other Fuels CHP - Renewable Fuels CHP - Natural Gas Pumped Storage Imports Solar Tidal Wave Biomass Hydro Wind (offshore) Wind (onshore) Nuclear Gas CCGT with CCS Coal CCS Oil Gas CCGT Coal 100 0 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Year
TWhr Electricity Generation by Technology Electricity generation mix in Thousand Flowers 600 500 400 300 200 CHP - Other Fuels CHP - Renewable Fuels CHP - Natural Gas Pumped Storage Imports Solar Tidal Wave Biomass Hydro Wind (offshore) Wind (onshore) Nuclear Gas CCGT with CCS Coal CCS Oil Gas CCGT Coal 100 0 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Year