COMPARISON OF LEGISLATIVE CLIMATE CHANGE TARGETS WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE DECEMBER 8, 2008 Attached is an update t the Wrld Resurces Institute s analysis f the greenhuse gas (GHG) reductin targets and timetables f climate legislatin prpsed in the 110 th Cngress. This includes a set f charts (annual and cumulative) as well as a reference table cmparing all current legislative climate change targets and timetables under cnsideratin in the 110 th Cngress (as f December 8, 2008) Table f Cntents Page COMPARISON OF LEGISLATIVE CLIMATE CHANGE TARGETS IN THE 110 TH CONGRESS 2 COMPARISON OF CUMULATIVE EMISSIONS RANGES UNDER LEGISLATIVE CLIMATE CHANGE TARGETS IN THE 110TH CONGRESS 3 GENERAL ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODOLOGIES 5 APPENDIX 1. GHG EMISSIONS AND EMISSION REDUCTION ESTIMATES UNDER 110 TH CONGRESS LEGISLATIVE PROPOSALS FOR SELECTED YEARS 11
COMPARISON OF LEGISLATIVE CLIMATE CHANGE TARGETS IN THE 110 TH CONGRESS The Wrld Resurces Institute s analysis f emissins targets and cumulative emissins budgets attempts t bjectively, fairly and accurately cmpare GHG reductins frm explicit carbn caps and cmplementary plicies cntained in climate prpsals submitted in the 110 th Cngress. Emissins frm capped sectrs are calculated based n the text f the respective legislatin. Fr sectrs that are nt cvered by the legislatin, emissins are estimated t cntinue uncntrlled in line with prjectins published by EPA. This analysis uses a single set f carefully selected data and methds t prvide a cnsistent cmparisn acrss all climate prpsals in the 110 th Cngress. This analysis is nt a prjectin f actual future emissins under the varius prpsals nr is it an analysis f ecnmic impacts resulting frm the enactment f these plicies. Cmparisn f Legislative Climate Change Targets in the 110 th Cngress (Figure 1) cmpares targets fr legislative prpsals f cap and trade prgrams fr greenhuse gas emissins. Specifically, each line reflects the caps plus the grwth in uncvered emissins as well as a range f additinal pssible reductins that culd ccur thrugh cmplementary plicies. Appendix 1 cntains a table that includes the underlying data and estimates f emissin reductins fr selected years. This chart is a revisin f a similar analysis by Wrld Resurces Institute released during the 109 th Cngress and subsequently updated thrugh September 8, 2008. This update includes the fllwing: An analysis f discussin draft legislatin intrduced by Representatives Dingell and Bucher. In additin t estimates f GHG reductins under the prpsed cap and trade prgram and auctin revenue funding fr GHG reductins in uncapped sectrs, this analysis incrprates GHG reductin estimates frm additinal regulatins n uncapped surces. Cmparisn f Cumulative Emissins Budgets under Legislative Climate Change Targets in the 110th Cngress (Figure 2) ffers a different perspective n the same data. This figure depicts the cumulative greenhuse gas emissins budgets fr the prpsals ver tw time perids. While the speed with which emissins reductins are implemented is an imprtant determinant f the efficacy f climate change legislatin, cumulative emissins reductins are als an essential indicatr f the verall envirnmental stringency f a plicy prpsal. Time perids f 2010-2030 and 2010-2050 were chsen t evaluate hw ambitius the prpsals are in bth the shrt and lng term. In additin, fr the Bxer-Lieberman-Warner, Bingaman-Specter, Markey, Dggett and Dingell-Bucher prpsals, reductin and reductin scenaris are presented t accunt fr changes in U.S. emissins that may result frm cnditinal targets as well as and incentive based cmplementary plicies included in these bills. These estimates d nt include changes t the targets r annual emissins levels that may result frm the use f cst-cntainment prvisins included in sme prpsals. 2
FIGURE 1 Millin metric tns CO2e 11000 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1990 Cmparisn f Legislative Climate Change Targets in the 110 th Cngress, 1990-2050 Histrical emissins 2000 2010 As f December 8, 2008 2020 2030 Business as usual 2040 2050 Bingaman-Specter (w/ price cap) reductins frm cmplementary plicies cnditinal target Lieberman-McCain Olver-Gilchrest Bxer-Lieberman-Warner reductins frm cmplementary plicies Kerry-Snwe Dingell-Bucher draft reductins frm cmplementary plicies Markey reductins frm cmplementary plicies Dggett reductins frm cmplementary plicies Waxman; Sanders-Bxer (w/ circuit breaker); Inslee Fr a full discussin f underlying methdlgy, assumptins and references, please see http://www.wri.rg/usclimatetargets. WRI des nt endrse any f these bills. This analysis is intended t fairly and accurately cmpare explicit carbn caps in Cngressinal climate prpsals and uses underlying data that may differ frm ther analyses. Price caps, circuit breakers and ther cstcntainment mechanisms cntained in sme bills may allw emissins t deviate frm the pathways depicted in this analysis. 3
FIGURE 2 Cmparisn f Cumulative Emissins Ranges under Legislative Climate Change Targets in the 110 th Cngress As f December 8, 2008 180,000 Years: 2010-2030 Millin metric tns CO2e 135,000 90,000 45,000 Uncapped Emissins Capped Emissins 0 420,000 Business As Usual Bingaman- Specter (w/ price cap) Lieberman- McCain Olver- Gilchrest Dingell- Bucher draft Bxer- Lieberman- Warner Kerry- Snwe Dggett Markey Waxman; Sanders-Bxer (w/ circuit breaker); Inslee Millin metric tns CO2e 336,000 252,000 168,000 84,000 0 Business As Usual Bingaman- Specter (w/ price cap) Lieberman- McCain Olver- Gilchrest Dingell- Bucher draft Lieberman- Warner Kerry- Snwe Years: 2010-2050 Dggett Markey Waxman; Sanders-Bxer (w/ circuit breaker); Inslee 550ppm CO2e Stabilizatin 450ppm CO2e Stabilizatin Uncapped Emissins Capped Emissins Fr a full discussin f underlying methdlgy, assumptins and references, please see http://www.wri.rg/usclimatetargets. WRI des nt endrse any f these bills. This analysis is intended t fairly and accurately cmpare explicit carbn caps in Cngressinal climate prpsals and uses underlying data that may differ frm ther analyses. Price caps, circuit breakers and ther cstcntainment mechanisms cntained in sme bills may allw emissins t deviate frm the pathways depicted in this analysis. 4
GENERAL ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODOLOGIES Many assumptins have been made t simplify the analysis and shuld nt be taken as statements f fact. These assumptins apply t all charts and data included in bth the Senate and Cngressinal cmparisn. In many situatins, these assumptins highlight cntentius issues which must be reslved t ensure the envirnmental integrity f a market-based apprach t addressing the threat f climate change. As new emissins data, ecnmic r technical analyses are published by EPA, DOE r ther relevant rganizatins WRI will update ur analysis t reflect this new infrmatin. Fr this analysis, WRI assumes that: All prpsals are enacted in 2008. Where annual data are unavailable, years between targets r prjectins are interplated using a simple linear frmula. Caps will impact nly capped sectrs. Bills with caps r reductin targets that explicitly apply t 100 percent f U.S. emissins are taken at face value. Bills that define which sectrs r entities will be capped are assumed t impact nly cvered sectrs. Estimates f emissins cverage fr each prpsal are generated based n legislative language and the EPA inventry. Emissins frm the rest f the ecnmy are assumed t increase at annual rates derived frm the EPA s mdeling f the McCain-Lieberman, Bingaman-Specter and Lieberman-Warner prpsals as apprpriate. This analysis des nt take int accunt leakage f emissins frm capped surces t uncapped surces either within sectrs r between sectrs. Sme cmplementary plicies may achieve emissin reductins in nn-cvered sectrs beynd what wuld result frm the cap. Plicies that have clear mandates fr additinal reductins are depicted in the slid, reductins line, while plicies with less clear requirements are depicted in a reductins range belw the line. Allcatins t supprt dmestic and/r internatinal bilgical sequestratin are assumed t achieve ne tnne f net emissin reductins per allwance allcated. Cmplementary plicies aimed at reducing emissins frm capped sectrs and entities, such as increased fuel ecnmy standards r renewable electricity standards, may affect the price f emissins allwances but wuld nt lwer ecnmy-wide GHG emissins belw the mandated cap. Cmplementary plicies aimed at reducing emissins frm uncapped sectrs and entities, such as perfrmance standards fr landfills, are included where reasnable, rbust estimates can be calculated. Offsets will be real, permanent and additinal. This representatin assumes ffsets represent a real reductin in ttal glbal GHG emissins. As a result, emissins under each bill are prtrayed as ttal emissins minus ffsets. Brrwing and banking will nt allw increases in cumulative GHG emissins. Annual emissins may stray abve r belw the cap, but cumulative GHG emissins ver the life f the prgram wuld be the same with r withut brrwing r banking. Althugh brrwing and banking may allw actual emissins in a given year t differ frm a bill s stated cap, this analysis des nt predict when and hw much this wuld ccur; therefre it is assumed that there wuld be n changes t the cap. Price caps and circuit breakers, while prviding price certainty, ly cmprmise a bill s envirnmental integrity and reduce the certainty f emissins reductins that culd be achieved by the prpsed cap and trade prgram. This analysis des nt shw the effects f the price cap under the Bingaman-Specter prpsal r the circuit breaker in the Sanders-Bxer prpsal due t a lack f cmparable data (earlier versins using EIA data did include the price cap, hwever in April 2008, the analysis migrated frm EIA t EPA data). Bill methdlgies The price cap prvisin culd result in emissins abve the line presented in Figure 1 and in greater cumulative emissins than thse presented in Figure 2. Business as Usual Prjectins f ttal U.S. emissins under n federal actin (referred t here as business as usual) are surced frm EPA s Scenari 1 using the ADAGE mdel as published in its ecnmic analyses f prpsals put frward in the 110 th Cngress. Lieberman-Warner, S.2191 (nt included in this analysis) Since the bill authrs prpsed a substitute t this bill in May, 2008 (S. 3036) it has been remved frm this analysis. Fr a full descriptin f hw S.2191 was analyzed by WRI please see previus updates (such as June 4, 2008) f this analysis available at: http://www.wri.rg/publicatin/usclimatetargets. 5
Kerry-Snwe, S.485 Cap and cverage: The bill language stipulates a declining cap, t cver 100 percent f U.S. emissins starting in 2010. The chart reflects the text f the language - annual reductins frm 2010 thrugh 2020 that bring ecnmy-wide emissins dwn t 1990 levels by 2020, then annual 2.5 percent reductins frm 2021 thrugh 2029 and 3.5 percent annual reductins frm 2030 thrugh 2050. Sanders-Bxer, S.309; Inslee, HR.2809; and Waxman, HR.1590 Cap and cverage: The bill language stipulates a declining cap, t cver 100 percent f U.S. emissins starting in 2010. Emissins are reduced linearly t reach 1990 levels by 2020. Frm there, emissins are reduced linearly t reach 80 percent belw 1990 levels by 2050. Althugh the text f Representative Waxman s prpsal is smewhat different frm the Sanders-Bxer prpsal, staff cnfirms that the cap is intended t fllw an identical trajectry. It is assumed that Representative Inslee s prpsal perates in the same fashin. Accrding t this analysis this straight line trajectry is equal t an average annual reductin f apprximately 5.2 percent. Cst cntainment mechanisms: S.309 includes a circuit breaker which culd breach the envirnmental integrity f the cap. It is uncertain hw much emissin abatement wuld ccur if the circuit breaker were triggered. Due t a lack f apprpriate data, this breach is nt depicted in ur analysis. McCain-Lieberman, S.240 and Olver-Gilchrest, HR.620 Cap and cverage: The bill s cap is applied apprximately 75 percent f 2006 ttal U.S. emissins. Althugh the rest f emissins are nt explicitly cvered, adjustments are made reflect grwth in sme uncvered emissins categries by: Subtracting 2000 levels f emissins frm exempted surces (unquantifiable emissins within cvered sectrs 8.3 percent f ecnmy emissins). Subtracting the 2012, 2020, 2030 and 2050 estimated emissins frm nn-cvered entities (entities frm cvered sectrs that emit less than 10,000 mmt CO 2 e 5.2 percent f ecnmy emissins) fr each cap perid fllwing a cap tightening. A thrugh discussin f emissins cverage under the McCain-Lieberman prpsal can be fund in a mem frm the EPA t the EIA dated 3/6/07 and titled Emissins that Fall under the Cap under S.280. Grwth f uncvered emissins: The remaining 25 percent f emissins are increased in line with EPA prjectins f uncvered emissins grwth under the McCain-Lieberman prpsal. These annual grwth rates, while varying frm year t year, average 0.27 percent thrugh 2050. Bingaman-Specter, S.1766 Cap and cverage: The bill is calculated t cap 86 percent f 2006 ttal U.S. emissins. Grwth f uncvered emissins: The remaining 14 percent f ecnmy emissins are increased in line with EPA s prjectins f uncvered emissins grwth under the prpsal. These annual grwth rates, while varying frm year t year, average -0.02 percent thrugh 2050. Cst cntainment mechanisms: Accrding t EPA analysis, withut significant additinal cmplementary plicies, it is highly likely that the bill s price cap will be triggered, breaching the envirnmental integrity f the cap. It is uncertain hw much emissin abatement wuld ccur if the price cap were triggered. Due t a lack f apprpriate data, this breach is nt depicted in ur analysis. Cmplementary plicies and allcatins: A range f emissins is presented t reflect the pssible impacts f cmplementary plicies included in the bill. The upper bund f this range ( reductins) depicts the impacts f the prpsal s clearly stated, emissin reductins. In the case f S.1766, this includes nly the GHG emissins cap. The lwer bund ( reductins) incrprates additinal emissin reductins that may be achieved thrugh the implementatin f the prpsal, but are nt mandated. This bund ( reductins) assumes: Allcatins fr dmestic and internatinal agriculture and frestry activities generate ne tnne f net emissin reductins per allwance allcated. The text f the bill requires that, by 2030, if the five largest trading partners have enacted cmparable plicies, the President, based n findings frm an interagency review, will recmmend t Cngress mre stringent targets t reduce ttal (100 percent) U.S. emissins at least 60 percent belw 2006 levels. This cap is shwn n the chart as the cnditinal target. Bxer-Lieberman-Warner substitute, S.3036 Cap and cverage: The bill prpses the creatin f tw caps ne t phase dwn U.S. HFC prductin and anther t reduce all ther GHG emissins. 6
The bill s tw caps cmbine t equal a limit f 5,981 millin tnnes f CO 2 e emissins in 2012. WRI calculatins, based n the EPA GHG Inventry, indicate that cvered entities emitted apprximately 5,769 millin tnnes in 2006 r apprximately 82 percent f ttal U.S. emissins in that year. The Bxer-Lieberman-Warner bill creates a separate cap fr HFC cnsumptin. Since HFC cnsumptin is nt equivalent t HFC emissins, an adjustment was made t cnvert this cnsumptin cap t an emissins cap. We have assumed an adjustment f 83 MMTCO 2 e in 2012, based n EPA estimates f the histrical difference between these numbers fund in an EPA mem t the EIA titled Emissins that Fall under the Cap under S.280 and the EPA GHG Inventry. After making this adjustment, the cap is tightened at the same rate as utlined in the legislative language. As a result, we assume the cmbined caps allw cvered surces t emit nly 5,981 MMTCO 2 e in 2012 decreasing t 1,789 MMTCO 2 e in 2050. Grwth f uncvered emissins: The 18 percent f ecnmy emissins nt cvered in the bill are increased in line with EPA estimates f uncvered emissins grwth rates under the prpsal. These annual grwth rates, while varying frm year t year, average -0.2 percent annually thrugh 2050. Cmplementary plicies and allcatins: A range f emissins is presented t reflect the pssible impacts f cmplementary plicies included in the bill. The upper bund f this range ( reductins) depicts the impacts f the prpsal s clearly stated, emissin reductins. In the case f S.3036, these plicies include: The GHG emissins cap: depicted as described abve; and Mandatry plicies t reduce end use HFC emissins: This analysis currently des nt include such plicies due t data limitatins. Inclusin f such plicies wuld result in a slight increase in GHG reductin estimates. The lwer bund ( reductins) incrprates additinal emissin reductins that may be achieved thrugh the implementatin f the prpsal, but are nt mandated. Such plicies include: Allcatins fr dmestic and internatinal agriculture and frestry activities: These allcatins are assumed t generate ne tnne f net emissin reductins per allwance allcated. State allcatins: While states and ther entities culd retire additinal allwances under S.3036 such amunts are difficult t quantify and therefre n estimates are included in this analysis. Markey, HR.6186 Estimates shuld be cnsidered preliminary pending additinal peer review and inclusin f analysis f cmplementary plicies fr HFCs. Cap and cverage: The legislatin phases in cverage f GHG emissins in tw steps: Entities cvered in 2012 emitted apprximately 5,984 millin tnnes in 2006 r apprximately 85 percent f ttal U.S. emissins in that year. The bill caps these emissins at 6,098 millin tnnes f CO 2 e emissins in 2012. Cverage is increased t 87 percent f ttal U.S. 2006 emissins after 2019 when HFCs are incrprated int the verall cap. HFCs are assumed t be capped based n emissins rather than prductin. WRI is currently explring whether an adjustment similar t thse made fr S.2191 and S.3036 is necessary t accurately prtray this prtin f the prpsal. If an adjustment is deemed t be necessary, ttal GHG reductin estimates culd be slightly greater than thse included in this preliminary analysis. Grwth f uncvered emissins: Frm 2006 thrugh 2019, HFC emissins are assumed t increase in line with EPA s ADAGE reference case prjectins. The remaining 13 percent f ecnmy emissins are increased in line with EPA estimates f uncvered emissins grwth rates under S.2191. These annual grwth rates, while varying frm year t year, average -0.2 percent annually thrugh 2050. Cmplementary plicies and allcatins: A range f emissins is presented t reflect the pssible impacts f cmplementary plicies included in the bill. The lwer bund f this range infrms the maximum reductin scenari depicted in the cumulative emissin budget cmparisn and assumes: The upper bund f this range ( reductins) depicts the impacts f the prpsal s clearly stated, emissin reductins. In the case f H.R. 6186, these plicies include: The GHG emissins cap: depicted as described abve. Mandatry plicies t reduce end use HFC emissins: This analysis currently des nt include such plicies due t data limitatins. Inclusin f such plicies wuld result in a slight increase in GHG reductin estimates. Mandatry regulatins fr uncvered sectrs: Best available cntrl technlgy standards fr uncapped surces are assumed t achieve additinal reductins f apprximately 100 millin tnnes CO 2 e based n estimates cnducted by the EPA. These regulatins are assumed t take effect in 2014. 7
This estimate may be cnservative as it des nt take int accunt reductins f methane frm enteric fermentatin r imprvements in best available cntrl technlgy ver time. The lwer bund ( reductins) incrprates additinal emissin reductins that may be achieved thrugh the implementatin f the prpsal, but are nt mandated. Such plicies include: Allcatins fr dmestic and internatinal agriculture and frestry activities: These allcatins are assumed t generate ne tnne f net emissin reductins per allwance allcated. Internatinal allcatins: Additinal reductins that culd be achieved utside f the U.S. thrugh internatinal clean technlgy deplyment funds cntained in this prpsal are nt included in this analysis. Depending n the perfrmance f such prgrams as well as the level f internatinal engagement, additinal verseas GHG reductins culd be substantial. Hwever, attributin and quantificatin f such reductins is difficult. Dggett, HR.6316 Cap and cverage: WRI calculatins, based n the EPA GHG Inventry, indicate that cvered entities emitted apprximately 5,769 millin tnnes in 2006 r apprximately 82 percent f ttal U.S. emissins in that year.the bill caps these emissins at 6,351 millin tnnes f CO 2 e emissins in 2012. Grwth f uncvered emissins: Befre adjustments are made t reflect estimates f additinal GHG reductins that culd be achieved thrugh regulatry the remaining 18 percent f ecnmy emissins are increased in line with EPA estimates f uncvered emissins grwth rates under the prpsal. These annual grwth rates, while varying frm year t year, average -0.2 percent annually thrugh 2050. Cmplementary plicies and allcatins: A range f emissins is presented t reflect the pssible impacts f cmplementary plicies included in the bill. The upper bund f this range ( reductins) depicts the impacts f the prpsal s clearly stated, emissin reductins. In the case f H.R. 6316, these plicies include: The GHG emissins cap: depicted as described abve. EPA regulatins: The prpsal wuld require the EPA t prevent uncapped sectr emissins frm increasing after 2012. This analysis hlds uncvered emissins at 2012 levels unless these emissins are prjected t fall belw 2012 levels at sme pint in the future. In the latter case, prjected uncvered emissins values are used. The lwer bund ( reductins) incrprates additinal emissin reductins that may be achieved thrugh the implementatin f the prpsal, but are nt mandated. Such plicies include: Allcatins fr dmestic and internatinal agriculture and frestry activities: These allcatins are assumed t generate ne tnne f net emissin reductins per allwance allcated. Dingell-Bucher, discussin draft Cap and cverage: The discussin draft prpses the creatin f tw caps ne t phase dwn U.S. HFC prductin and anther t reduce all ther GHG emissins. The HFC cap wuld g int effect in 2012, cvering the prductin f specifically identified HFCs. These HFCs were respnsible fr apprximately 2 percent f 2006 emissins. A range f reductin targets are prpsed fr the HFC cap. WRI s reductin scenari assumes the least stringent end f the range is applied. WRI s reductin scenari assumes the mst stringent end f the range is applied. Cverage f nn-hfc GHG emissins is phased in ver the first 5 t 9 years f the prgram. The initial 2012 cap, set at 4987 millin tnnes f emissins, is estimated t cver apprximately 69 percent f ttal 2006 U.S. emissins. In 2014, the cap wuld be expanded t include mst industrial emissins increasing cverage t 77 percent f 2006 U.S. emissins. An additinal expansin f the cap in 2017 t include natural gas emissins wuld ccur if a natinal cnsumptin perfrmance standard is nt met. If the perfrmance standard is met the cap is expanded in 2021. In either event this expansin increases cverage t 83 percent f U.S. emissins by including emissins frm residential and cmmercial natural gas cmbustin. Based n a review f histric trends in natural gas cnsumptin, WRI assumes that this third phase ccurs in 2017. When cmbined with the HFC cap and cmplementary plicies, the draft bill wuld cver up t 84 percent f 2006 U.S. emissins. Grwth f uncvered emissins: Uncvered emissins are assumed t increase in line with EPA s ADAGE reference case prjectins. Specific emissins grwth rates are apprximated fr each grup f emissins incrprated under the cap at each phase f cap expansin. These annual grwth rates, while varying frm year t year, average -0.2 percent annually thrugh 2050 fr emissins that are never cvered, -0.2 percent annually 8
fr natural gas emissins that wuld be cvered beginning in 2017 r 2021, and 1.0 percent annually fr industrial emissins that wuld be cvered beginning in 2014. Cmplementary plicies and allcatins: A range f emissins is presented t reflect the pssible impacts f cmplementary plicies included in the discussin draft. The upper bund f this range ( reductins) depicts the impacts f the prpsal s emissin reductins. In the case f the Dingell- Bucher discussin draft, these plicies include: The GHG emissins cap fr nn-hfc emissins: depicted as described abve assuming natural gas is cvered beginning in 2017. The higher end f the prpsed range fr the HFC cap Supplemental Greenhuse Gas Reductin Prgram: Allcatins made under Part F, Supplemental Greenhuse Gas Reductin Prgram, are anticipated t achieve additinal GHG reductins. At a minimum, the bill wuld allcate 2,346 millin allwances t this prgram thrugh 2025. Althugh the bill des allw the funding t be spent n a diversity f prgrams, it requires prgram administratrs t achieve 500 millin tnnes f additinal abatement between 2012 and 2020, and an additinal 500 millin tnnes f abatement between 2021 and 2025. This analysis assumes that the allcatins are sufficient t achieve these reductins and that the prgram des nt achieve any further mitigatin pst 2025. Each set f 500 millin tnnes f abatement are evenly distributed ver the relevant time-perid. Industrial perfrmance standards: The prpsal phases in industrial perfrmance standards between 2012 and 2019. EPA is instructed t cver 95 percent f ttal industrial emissins (including industrial prcess and F-gas emissins) with a cmbinatin f the cap and perfrmance standards. WRI estimates that 84 percent f these emissins are cvered under the cap leaving 11 percent subject t standards. Since the structure f these standards is t be designed by the administratr, it is unknwn precisely hw much mitigatin the standards wuld achieve. This analysis assumes emissins subject t perfrmance standards are held cnstant frm the effective year nward. The lwer bund ( reductins) incrprates additinal emissin reductins that may be achieved thrugh the implementatin f the prpsal, but are nt mandated. Such plicies include: The lwer end f the prpsed range fr the HFC cap The GHG emissins cap, assuming natural gas is cvered in 2021 Stabilizatin Stabilizatin lines fr atmspheric CO 2 equivalent cncentratins f 450 and 550 parts per millin are derived frm van Vuuren and den Elzen et al. 2006. These curves represent reductins the U.S. wuld need t achieve in tandem with immediate and significant cmmitments frm all industrialized cuntries and the eventual cperatin f all majr develping cuntry emitters t prevent atmspheric greenhuse gas cncentratins frm exceeding 450ppm r 550 ppm based n the multi-stage scenari used in this study. Acknwledgements: This analysis was cmpleted by Jhn Larsen and Rbert Heilmayr at the Wrld Resurces Institute. The authrs wuld like t thank the ffices f Representatives Gilchrest, Dggett, Markey, Waxman and Huse Cmmittee n Energy and Cmmerce staff and Senatrs Bingaman, Bxer, Kerry, Lieberman, Sanders and Warner as well as analysts at the Wrld Resurces Institute, the United States Envirnmental Prtectin Agency, the United States Energy Infrmatin Administratin the American Cuncil fr an Energy Efficient Ecnmy, the Natural Resurces Defense Cuncil, the Natinal Cmmissin n Energy Plicy, the Pew Center n Glbal Climate Change, Resurces fr the Future and the Unin f Cncerned Scientists fr their help in reviewing earlier versins f this analysis. Please cntact Jhn Larsen (202-729-7661) r Rbert Heilmayr (202-729-7844) with any questins. Fr mre infrmatin, g t www.wri.rg/usclimatetargets. References: Energy Infrmatin Administratin, Manufacturing Energy Cnsumptin Survey 2002, (Washingtn, DC: March 2005) Envirnmental Prtectin Agency, U.S. Inventry f Greenhuse Gas Emissins and Sinks 1990-2006, (Washingtn, DC: April 2008). Envirnmental Prtectin Agency, EPA Analysis f The Climate Stewardship and Innvatin Act f 2007, (Washingtn, DC: July 2007). Envirnmental Prtectin Agency, EPA Analysis f the Lw Carbn Ecnmy Act f 2007, (Washingtn, DC: January 2008). 9
Envirnmental Prtectin Agency, EPA Analysis f the Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act f 2008, (Washingtn, DC: March 2008). Envirnmental Prtectin Agency, Emissins that Fall under the Cap under S.280, (Washingtn, DC: March 2007). Vuuren, DP van; Elzen, MDJ den; et al. Stabilising greenhuse gas cncentratins at lw levels: an assessment f ptins and csts, Netherlands Envirnmental Assessment Agency, 2006. 10
Appendix 1. GHG Emissins and Emissin Reductin Estimates Under 110th Cngress Legislative Prpsals fr Selected Years (Millin metric tns f CO2e) Abslute Emissins 2012 2020 2030 2040 2050 Business as usual emissins 7,586 8,264 9,089 9,786 10,312 Bingaman-Specter, S.1766 7423 t 7244 7145 t 6835 5808 t 5567 5789 t 4334 5738 t 2860 McCain-Lieberman, S.280 7,057 6,229 5,139 5,196 3,181 Olver-Gilchrest, HR.620 7,098 6,251 4,956 5,012 2,668 Bxer-Lieberman-Warner, S.3036 7266 t 6963 6404 t 6146 5297 t 5094 4130 t 3976 2982 t 2887 Kerry-Snwe, S.485 7,010 6,148 4,773 3,343 2,341 Dingell-Bucher Draft 7405 t 7380 7050 t 7010 4699 t 4699 3536 t 3529 2342 t 2335 Markey, HR.6186 7343 t 6999 5970 t 5621 4636 t 4381 3248 t 3088 1832 t 1767 Dggett, HR.6316 7636 t 7297 6382 t 6062 4814 t 4593 3204 t 3083 1541 t 1519 Waxman, HR.1590; Sanders-Bxer, S.309; Inslee, HR.2809 7,010 6,148 4,509 2,869 1,230 Percent change frm 2005 emissins 2012 2020 2030 2040 2050 Business as usual emissins 6 16 27 37 45 Bingaman-Specter, S.1766 4 t 2 0 t -4-19 t -22-19 t -39-20 t -60 McCain-Lieberman, S.280-1 -13-28 -27-55 Olver-Gilchrest, HR.620 0-12 -30-30 -63 Bxer-Lieberman-Warner, S.3036 2 t -2-10 t -14-26 t -29-42 t -44-58 t -60 Kerry-Snwe, S.485-2 -14-33 -53-67 Dingell-Bucher Draft 4 t 4-1 t -2-34 t -34-50 t -51-67 t -67 Markey, HR.6186 3 t -2-16 t -21-35 t -39-54 t -57-74 t -75 Dggett, HR.6316 7 t 2-10 t -15-32 t -36-55 t -57-78 t -79 Waxman, HR.1590; Sanders-Bxer, S.309; Inslee, HR.2809-2 -14-37 -60-83 Percent change frm 1990 emissins 2012 2020 2030 2040 2050 Business as usual emissins 23 34 48 59 68 Bingaman-Specter, S.1766 21 t 18 16 t 11-6 t -9-6 t -30-7 t -53 McCain-Lieberman, S.280 15 1-16 -15-48 Olver-Gilchrest, HR.620 15 2-19 -18-57 Bxer-Lieberman-Warner, S.3036 18 t 13 4 t 0-14 t -17-33 t -35-51 t -53 Kerry-Snwe, S.485 14 0-22 -46-62 Dingell-Bucher Draft 20 t 20 15 t 14-24 t -24-42 t -43-62 t -62 Markey, HR.6186 19 t 14-3 t -9-25 t -29-47 t -50-70 t -71 Dggett, HR.6316 24 t 19 4 t -1-22 t -25-48 t -50-75 t -75 Waxman, HR.1590; Sanders-Bxer, S.309; Inslee, HR.2809 14 0-27 -53-80 (Nte: These estimates prtray the range f emissin reductins that culd be achieved by each prpsal. They include caps and prjectins f uncvered emissins as well as additinal reductins achieved thrugh cmplementary plicies but d nt take int accunt changes in annual emissins due t cst cntainment prvisins.) 11