Econometric Modeling Liftactiv

Transcription

1 Econometric Modeling Liftactiv Developed by Google Italy For L Oréal CAI Jan 16 th

2 Agenda 1 Why this model? 2 Model description 3 Output 4 Conclusions & Next steps 2

3 Why this study? L Oréal o One of the biggest Media investor in Italy (around 130 Mio$). o The first beauty company to invest on AdWords L Oréal Cosmetique Active (CAI) o Leader of the beauty pharmaceutical sector. o Growing investment on Google Products o Now the highest investors on Google products within the European CAI divisions. Early 2011 o Flat market due the economic crisis o Drop of Market Share for L Oreal Cosmetique Active due to new competitors entering the market o The Italian team was asked to review completely the media mix by the Headquarter o Only the medias proved to be effective in driving sales are allowed 3

4 Objectives To measure and quantify the effectiveness of all Liftactiv marketing leverages with particular focus on the productivity of the digital and traditional media. 1. What are the drivers of the Liftactiv business? 2. How much the media planning contributes on the value sales and what are the synergies between offline investments and online activity? 3. How the media allocation between digital and offline media can be managed by Vichy to be more effective? 4

5 Agenda 1 Why this model? 2 Model description 3 Output 4 Conclusions & Next steps 5

6 Sources: Data covering the period Jan 09 May 11 Market data (sales, distribution, price) Liftactiv and main competitors Communication activities Offline media (Tv, Magazine, Newspaper, Radio) Online media: Liftactiv campaigns (Adwords, display, facebook, etc) Other online Vichy campaigns (halo effect) Competitors data Adv campaigns and distribution of new launches (e.g. Serum 7, Coherence Lifting Viso, etc). 6

7 Model Shape: 1) Sales evaluated at variant level Independent variables Dependent variable Synergies Off-Online Traditional Media On line Media Liftactiv On line Media Vichyconsult Incremental Sales Seasonality Macroeconomics Distribution N. Items Launches/new packs Competitors (ADV / New launches) Baseline Sales Liftactiv weekly Sales 7 7

8 Model Shape: 2) Digital evaluation and synergies with the traditional media Off-line Media TV GRP Digital Media Paid Search Display Facebook Direct/ base Organic Clicks Radio GRP Print GRP Synergy Effects Website Visits Direct effects Liftactiv Value Sales Total effects = Net Online media effects + Off-line synergy effects 8 8

9 Agenda 1 Why this model? 2 Model description 3 Output 4 Conclusions & Next steps 9

10 The effect of competition: erosion of the Liftactiv business up to - 6% on a weekly base Total baseline 2009: k 2010 : k (+358 k ) Y.E. May 11: k (-431 k ) Value Sales x March 10: Launch CXP CR Total 30ml -455 k (3% of the total sales YE May 11) Competition 29/12/08 19/01/09 09/02/09 02/03/09 23/03/09 13/04/09 04/05/09 25/05/09 15/06/09 06/07/09 27/07/09 17/08/09 07/09/09 28/09/09 19/10/09 09/11/09 30/11/09 21/12/09 11/01/10 01/02/10 22/02/10 15/03/10 05/04/10 26/04/10 17/05/10 07/06/10 28/06/10 19/07/10 09/08/10 30/08/10 20/09/10 11/10/10 01/11/10 22/11/10 13/12/10 03/01/11 24/01/11 14/02/11 07/03/11 28/03/11 18/04/11 09/05/11 10

11 Competitive dynamics: Main market launches in Sellers Distribution /12/08 19/01/09 09/02/09 02/03/09 23/03/09 13/04/09 04/05/09 25/05/09 15/06/09 06/07/09 27/07/09 17/08/09 07/09/09 28/09/09 19/10/09 09/11/09 30/11/09 21/12/09 11/01/10 01/02/10 22/02/10 15/03/10 05/04/10 26/04/10 17/05/10 07/06/10 28/06/10 19/07/10 09/08/10 30/08/10 20/09/10 11/10/10 01/11/10 22/11/10 13/12/10 03/01/11 24/01/11 14/02/11 07/03/11 28/03/11 18/04/11 09/05/11 5 brand launched P&G Serum 7 Coherence Lifting Viso Roc Sublime Energy Eucerin Hyal Urea. Defence Codexage (*) Monthly distributions have been transformed into weekly data to run the econometric model. 11

12 The modeling output: online media reaches the 4,7% of total sales. % on the total value sale ( ) 600 AdSales On/Off line media 21,6% Y.E. May 11 TV Adv 13,0% Total Online Adv (*) 4,7% 500 Print (**) 3,8% Value Sales x Radio 10 Total Base Sales 78,4% /12/08 19/01/09 09/02/09 02/03/09 23/03/09 13/04/09 04/05/09 25/05/09 15/06/09 06/07/09 27/07/09 17/08/09 07/09/09 28/09/09 19/10/09 09/11/09 30/11/09 21/12/09 11/01/10 01/02/10 22/02/10 15/03/10 05/04/10 26/04/10 17/05/10 07/06/10 28/06/10 19/07/10 09/08/10 30/08/10 20/09/10 11/10/10 01/11/10 22/11/10 13/12/10 03/01/11 24/01/11 14/02/11 07/03/11 28/03/11 18/04/11 09/05/ : k 2010 : k Y.E. May 11: k (-4,7%) (*) Online includes the halo effect of the web visits to Vichyconsult (**) Print: Aggregated results Magazines, Newspapers 12

13 The modeling output: AdWords drives 1,7% of sales 100% = Total value Y.E. May 11: 15,02 mio 13

14 TV effectiveness: On average the TV returns 744 incremental per Grp TV Effectiveness AdSales x Grp Avg May x Grp Y.E. May '11 Grp TV AdSales

15 Effectiveness of the online media: AdWords shows the best effectiveness with 3,27 incremental per click. Online effectiveness Index (Y.E. May 11) AdSales x Click AdWords Newsletters Facebook Display Click Dem: only one case March 11 (5,54 per click) 15

16 Keywords and TV: K words efficiency is amplified when TV is on air and vice versa Keywords Effectiveness (with vs. without TV support) Synergy means short term TV effects gathered by the Paid search medium Average 3,27 AdSales x Click 4,14 (+37%) Keywords without TV Sinergy Keywords with TV Sinergy Keywords Clicks (Y.E. May '11)

17 Optimal TV plan: 150 Grp s threshold and continuous plan è The optimal weekly Grp level has found to be 150 Grp (vs. actual 200 Grp). è Move towards higher TV continuity with flights spaced no more than two weeks. Saturation (Law of diminishing returns) Decay (Optimal spacing between two flights) 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% Contribution 70% 60% 50% 40% è Low Marginal Opportunity Optimal point 150 Grp 70% 60% 50% 40% Half life è Adv effects vanished 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% ç Very High Marginal Opportunity 10% 0% GRP (Women +15 y.o.) % N. Weeks after the last GRP aired 17

18 Simulation: The optimization process leads the same incremental value with -11% Grp. TV Grp tot. 208 Grp x 17 weeks Optimized TV Grp tot. 150 Grp x 21weeks Same AdSales -391 Grp (-11%) 100% 600 TV - AdStock Curve 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 208 Grp x 17 weeks 150 Grp x 21 weeks Grp TV 20% 10% 100 0% 0 Plan TV 2010 Plan TV optimized 18

19 Agenda 1 Why this model? 2 Model description 3 Output 4 Conclusions & Next steps 19

20 Conclusions Online advertising drives more than ⅓ of the sales generated by the TV (main Media). Of course the investment level of these 2 medias absolutely does not follow the same proportion, meaning that online has proved to be far more efficient than TV Adwords is the most effective online media and Adwords investments are heavily correlated with the product sales being able to generate 3,27 per click, the tight budget limits its potential. The TV media investment can be optimized by lowering the weekly thresholds in terms of grp s. The media mix can be more efficient if the paid search planning is always aligned to the off line one due to proven synergic effects. 20

21 Client Testimonial Roberta Vinciguerra Director of Communication div. Cosmétique Active - L Oréal Italy Digital represents a key role in our brands strategy. The media campaign are now integrating web, increasing investments more and more. Our goal has been to demonstrate the efficacy of new media on sell-out. Google adwords is the first driver to convert qualitative traffic into our web sites, we really believe in it! Basically the synergy of TV and web are able to potentiate our results. Our strategy moving forward is to continue optimizing the mix for greater ROI". 21

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23 Liftactiv: The statistical fit of the econometric model The econometric model shows a suitable level of fit that allows a deep evaluation of the Liftactiv sales performance. It is possible to observe some sporadic outliers probably caused by specific competitive or promotional actions within the pharmacies. R 2 = 94,2% Err. Serial Correlation = 0,15 (Durbin-Watson = 1,7) 600 Average Weekly Error (MAPE) = 4,0% 500 Value Sales x /12/08 19/01/09 09/02/09 02/03/09 23/03/09 13/04/09 04/05/09 25/05/09 15/06/09 06/07/09 27/07/09 17/08/09 07/09/09 28/09/09 19/10/09 09/11/09 30/11/09 21/12/09 11/01/10 01/02/10 22/02/10 15/03/10 05/04/10 26/04/10 17/05/10 07/06/10 28/06/10 19/07/10 09/08/10 30/08/10 20/09/10 11/10/10 01/11/10 22/11/10 13/12/10 03/01/11 24/01/11 14/02/11 07/03/11 28/03/11 18/04/11 09/05/11 Residual Actual Value Sales x.000 Model estimate 23