We are EFICAS!? Monitoring adaptation to climate change

Transcription

1 We are EFICAS!? Monitoring adaptation to climate change Workshop on vulnerabilities and adaptation to changes in the Lao Uplands, Vientiane, 23 February 2018 Measuring vulnerability and resilience 1

2 Bottom up definition of SMART indicators e.g. exposure to crop damages Specific Measurable Assignable Realistic Time related Exposition (E) Sensitivity (S) Responses (R) V = E x S / R Database 2

3 Principles Theory of Change EFICAS project INPUTS Financial, human and material resources that go into the project Money Equipment Time In kind inputs Staffing (seeds, barbed wire ) Implementation ACTIVITIES OUTPUTS Tasks undertaken in order to transform inputs into outputs Products and services produced/delivered through the project Co design PLUP, meetings, FG discussions, workshops VLMC empowerment Field innovative practices PLUP document CADP document VLMC operational and active Results OUTCOMES IMPACTS Behavioral changes resulting from the project outputs (both intended and unintended) Long term changes that result from the accumulation of outcomes Sustainable Intensification Farming systems performances Improvement of cropping & livestock practices Governance NR improved Resilience : Buffer capacity Vulnerability Adaptive capacity Transformative landscapeapproach Interventions o PLUP o CADP o On farm experiments o Demonstration plots o Extension, FFS, etc. Monitoring evaluation o Intervention/control 1. Involve villages the whole village community in the planning processes o Baseline 2. o The Repeated whole village community is involved in transformative process 3. Integrated measurements approach to crops, livestock, forest management Baseline 2014 Endline? 2016 Endline?

4 Village location Measuring changes LANDSCAPE SCALE land use patterns land use intensity VILLAGE SCALE general village information problem census HOUSEHOLD SCALE income agricultural practices INDIVIDUAL SCALE family composition education 4

5 Land use changes Time series of high resolution remote sensing data (SPOT6) Decreasing forest F-PF F-UPL/Shb F-OL Increasing forest UPL/Shb-F OL-F Unclassified Paddy Field Upland crop Shrub Fallow Forest Plantation Water Settlement Cloud LULC class 1 Paddy field Village Samsoum Year 2015 (ha) Km 2017 (ha) Upland crop Shrub Fallow Forest Plantation 7 Water 8 Settlement Cloud Total 1, ,699.0 Khiewvongphachan X. et al., Land use/cover change analysis in 24 villages of EFICAS project (2015 & 2017) LULCC: Samsoom village Inputs Outputs Outcomes Impacts Measuring soil health Soil erosion Water run off Infiltration Soil biological activity Soil color Soil structure Soil compaction 5

6 Soil test kits (ph, NPK, SOM) In village laboratory Top soil (0 10 cm) Preliminary results (22 villages, n=720) Variable description 5,4 2,3% 9,3 mg/kg 72,3 mg/kg 0,03 mg/kg Acidic soils, with low nutrients and SOM content 6

7 Measuring changes in livelihoods -Training - Capacity building - Support to VLMC - Collective actions HUMAN CAPITAL - Village fund - Access to credit - Roads access - Irrigation NATURAL CAPITAL - Change in farming practices - Protection of riparian forests - water resources - Biodiversity enhancement Village baselinedata Houaphan Louang Prabang Topics Variable Houamuang Viengxay Viengkham Pakseng Houaymoun Phounkang Phoutong Houayvat Households (no) HH members (no) Women (no) Population Labor force (no) % active population 42% 44% 38% 35% Dependency ratio (chidren/adult population) 46% 41% 53% 58% % children 6 15 going to school 87% 97% 97% 95% Upland rice prod (t) Upland rice production (kg/capita) Lowland rice production (t) Lowland rice production (kg/capita) Rice production (kg/capita) Agriculture % upland rice on total rice production 89% 27% 100% 100% Maize production (t) No Buffalo No Cattle No Goat No Pig No Fish pond

8 Village baselinedata Topics Variable Houaphan Louang Prabang Houamuang Viengxay Viengkham Pakseng Houaymoun Phounkang Phoutong Houayvat % swidden 87% 67% 92% 95% % paddy 13% 28% 0% 0% % livestock 0% 0% 1% 0% % trade 0% 6% 3% 5% Cash income distribution % salary/employment 0% 0% 4% 0% Village NTFP income (million kip) % NTFP income 6% 4% 5% 6% Household Village rice income (million kip) economics Village cash crop income (million kip) Daily wage, Village livestock income (million kip) Livestock salary Other, Village non farm income (million kip) 54% Other % remitances, 51 % non farm income 7% 33% 44% 34% pensions, 8% Village annual cash income (million kip) etc. 955 Trade 12% 670 Avg HH cash income (mill kip/hh/year) 10,7 10,3 13,0 7% 15,6 Avg farm income (mill kip/hh/year) 9,9 5,8 9,0 14,4 Renting services Avg non farm income (mill kip/hh/year) 0,8 4,6 5,0 1,2 Cash crop inc NTFP inc 2% Gini index on cash income Rice inc 1% 5% 44% 54% 59% 57% 7% Change in income distribution MLAK / Year other salary trade livestock crop ntfp 2016 MLAK / Year Phongsaly Louang Prabang Huaphan other salary trade livestock crop ntfp 8

9 Cropping system performances Return on labour (LAK/day) Return on 2014 labour (LAK/day) Box plots Return labour paddy_rice Maize Paddy rice Upland rice Maize Return labour hybrid_maize Paddy rice Upland rice Maize Return labour upland_rice Cropping system performances Return on land (MLAK/ha) Return on land (MLAK/ha) paddy_rice Maize Paddy rice Upland rice Box plots Return land Maize Paddy rice Upland rice 5 Return land hybrid_maize Return land upland_rice 9

10 Vulnerability indicators Exposition (E) Sensitivity (S) Responses (R) V = E x S / R Vulnerability variables 10

11 Vulnerability variables Themes 3 Indicators > 2018 Indicators 15 Variable 115 Data 325 Entries

12 Resilience indicators Livelihoods Phoutong 2014 Resilience framework Vulnerability Land use Village comparisons Livelihoods Phoutong 2014 Phoutong 2016 Vulnerability Land use 12

13 Village comparisons 2014 Livelihoods Phoutong 2014 Naphieng 2014 Houayvankao 2014 Vulnerability Land use Data Management Mobile application Design/selection of indicators Web site 13

14 Main lessons Resilience adaptation to changes Theory of change: collectively negotiated goals, learning loops, scenario exploration (participatory simulations) Monitoring requires co designing indicators that are meaningful to local populations and useful to both researchers and practitioners Enabling environment to bring impact to scale Process takes time (min 5 to 10 years), trust building, requires strong initial support Securing continuous policy/donor support based on empirical evidences (monitoring) Eco Friendly Intensification and Climate resilient Agricultural Systems (EFICAS) Thank you for your attention! For more information: laos.net 14