CLIMATE CHANGE AWARENESS AND DECISION ON ADAPTATION MEASURES BY LIVESTOCK FARMERS

Transcription

1 85rd Annual Conference of the Agrcultural Economcs Socet Warwck Unverst 8 0 Aprl 0 CLIMATE CHANGE AWARENESS AND DECISION ON ADAPTATION MEASURES BY LIVESTOCK FARMERS B. Mandlen a F.D.K. Anm b a UNISA College of Agrc. & Envronmental. Scences; Dept. of Agrc. Anmal Health & Human Ecolog; Florda Campus Prvate Bag 6 Florda 70 South Afrca Tel: ; Fax: ; E mal: mandlb@unsa.ac.za b UNISA College of Agrc. & Envronmental. Scences; Dept. of Agrc. Anmal Health & Human Ecolog; Florda Campus Prvate Bag 6 Florda 70 South Afrca Tel: ; Fax: ; E mal: anmfdk@unsa.ac.za Abstract Ths paper nvestgated the extent of awareness of clmate change b lvestock farmers n the Eastern Cape Provnce of South Afrca. It further explored the choce of adaptaton measures that were followed and factors that affected adapton measures. The results ndcated that martal status level of educaton formal extenson temperatures and the wa n whch land was acqured sgnfcantl affected awareness of clmate change. Varables that sgnfcantl affected adaptaton selectons were gender formal extenson nformaton receved about clmate change temperatures and

2 the wa n whch land was acqured. The stud suggested that the postve and sgnfcant varables that affected awareness and adaptaton measures b lvestock farmers be consdered when awareness and adaptaton strateges are mplemented. Kewords: Clmate change awareness Heckman s two step probt model decsons to adapt. INTRODUCTION Awareness of clmate change n man studes has been of great concern. Adaptaton measures to clmate change have often been a wa to pursue for man Afrcan countres n order to reduce the negatve effects. A consensus has emerged that developng countres are more vulnerable to clmate change than developed countres because of the predomnance of agrculture n ther economes and scarct of captal for adaptaton measures Fscher et al. (005). South Afrca beng a developng countr wth agrculture domnatng other sectors of the econom s hghl lkel to be vulnerable to clmate change (Gbetbouo and Hassan 005). Predctons about clmate change n South Afrca n a stud conducted n 00 ndcated that certan speces of anmals are lkel to become extnct as a result of clmate change (Turpe et al. 00). Eastern Cape whose econom s manl agrculture s also most lkel to be vulnerable to clmate change. Ths has called for ths stud that seeks to establsh whether lvestock farmers n the Eastern Cape were aware of clmate change and the adaptaton measures that the opted for n order to curb the effects of clmate change between 005 and 009.

3 The objectves of ths stud was frstl to establsh the extent of awareness of clmate change n the area of stud and to select lvestock producers that were aware of clmate change from a pooled sample of 50 respondents. Secondl the objectve was to solate those lvestock farmers that adapted to clmate change from the group that was aware of clmate change and to dentf adaptaton measures that the adopted. The rest of the paper s organsed as follows: In secton the method that was used to collect data s outlned. In secton 3 the emprcal model that was emploed s specfed. Secton 4 presents results are presented n the form of descrptve statstcs followed b Heckman two step probt model results. Secton 5 dscusses the results and secton 6 summarses and concludes the paper.. DATA COLLECTION Ths stud was based on a cross-sectonal household surve data collected from 50 household heads durng the farmng season n three dstrct muncpaltes n the Eastern Cape of South Afrca namel: Amathole Chrs Han and OR Tambo. The 50 households surveed were from the three selected dstrct muncpaltes based on representatve agro-ecologcal zones and lvestock farmng sstems n each muncpalt. The sampled dstrcts were selected purposefull to cover unform or homogeneous characterstcs of the three areas namel: agro ecologcal zones ntenst of lvestock (cattle and sheep) farmng actvtes average annual ranfall and household characterstcs. The 50 household were proportonall selected accordng to the nformaton on household szes gven b the Department of Agrculture and Rural 3

4 Development offce. The choce of exogenous varables used n the analss was guded b avalable lterature and economc theor. 3. EMPIRICAL MODEL The awareness of lvestock farmers about clmate change and the decson to select adapton measures was consdered to be a two-stage process. The frst stage was whether lvestock farmers were aware of clmate change or not. The second stage nvolved whether lvestock farmers adapted to clmate change after beng aware and selectng some adaptaton measures. The second stage called the outcome stage was consdered a sub-sample of the frst stage the selecton stage. Snce the outcome stage was a sub-sample of the selecton stage t was lkel that the outcome stage sub-sample wll be non-random and dfferent from those farmers who dd not become aware of clmate change n the full sample. A sample selecton bas was then created whch was corrected b the maxmum lkelhood Heckman s two-step or Heckt selecton procedure (Heckman 979). The Heckman two-step estmaton s a wa of estmatng treatment effects when the treated sample s self-selected. The applcaton of ths model n ths stud was to estmate the determnants of an ndvdual lvestock farmer s decson to select adaptaton. The frst step was to create a model of farmers who were aware of clmate change and then gven that model the outcomes (adaptaton) was modeled (Dressa et. al. 009). 4

5 Let j be a vector of observatons of the sze of ssue for the th group of lvestock farmers wth a j th form of awareness and non-awareness of clmate change and let j be a vector of observatons on measurable socoeconomc characterstcs and other assocated varables assocated wth the j th state of awareness. Thus we can specf the latent equaton as: * Π j + ε 3 j j () where 3 s a vector of coeffcents and ε j s the dsturbance term n the sze of the ssue equaton. The sample selecton problem arses n the sze of ssue equaton because the sample contans farmers that were aware of clmate change and those that were not aware. Those that were aware choose between adaptaton and non-adaptaton. The sze of farmers who choose to adapt ( j ja) s observed onl f the farmer was aware of clmate change and chose to adapt. The sze of nonadaptaton farmers ( j jn) s observed onl f the farmer was aware of clmate change and chose not to adapt. These two selecton processes can be consdered as non-random and the model should explctl consder ths selecton n order to produce unbased estmates. To address the multple sample selecton problems nherent n the sze of the adaptaton equaton the followng model was specfed. 5

6 Let Y* represent the propenst of a farmer beng aware of clmate change rather than not. Then the relatonshp between the observed outcome and the response propenst can be wrtten as: 0... f... Y... f... Y * * Awareness selecton () Let be the correspondng propenst to choose adaptaton measures versus nonadaptaton measures as a result of awareness of clmate change. Ths varable s onl observed when.e. s a choce between adaptaton and non-adaptaton f the farmer was aware of clmate change and takes the value of for adaptaton and 0 for non-adaptaton. * 0... f... Y Adaptaton selecton (3) *... f... Y The varable A s onl observed when and (aware and adaptaton) whle N s onl observed when and 0 (aware but not adapt). Now consder a random sample of N observatons. The selectvt model wth bvarate probt selecton equatons for the farmer are can be specfed as: 6

7 *... f... Y > 0 + Awareness equaton (4) 0... otherwse μ *... f... Y > 0 + Adaptaton equaton (5) 0... otherwse μ Π j ( Π A D ) ( Π 0 ) E 3 j + ε j (6) E N A Equatons (4) summarses the frst stuaton stage functon between awareness and no awareness of clmate change and equaton (5) between adaptaton and no adaptaton. The two equatons represent a partall observed bvarate probt model. The partall observed stuaton n the model s due to the unobserved cases of the decson of some farmers between adaptaton and non adaptaton n cases where farmers were not aware of clmate change durng the stud perod. The condtonal dstrbuton of the error terms µ µ and ε j are dstrbuted accordng to the mult-normal dstrbuton wth zero means and for dentfcaton purposes the varances equal to.e. ( σ ε σ μ σ μ ) and correlaton coeffcents ε ε respectvel. The mult-normal structure of the model leads to the followng varancecovarance matrx: 7

8 8 ε ε ε ε ε σ σ σ (7) The three categores of observatons are made wth uncondtonal probabltes as follows: Φ Φ Φ ] [ 0) ( Pr : 0 ] [ 0) 0 ( Pr 0 : ] [ ) ( Pr : ob ob ob (8) The condtonal probabltes for a generc that mght appear n ether ndex functon can be wrtten as: ) ( Pr ψ ψ ob + (9) Φ ) ( φ ψ (9a) Φ ) ( φ ψ (9b)

9 9 Where s the bvarate normal cumulatve dstrbuton functon Φ s the unvarate normal cumulatve dstrbuton functon and Φ φ s the normal dstrbuton functon. The term s zero f does not appear n ; lkewse s zero f does not appear n. Thus: ( ) ( ) Pr ob E ( ) ( ) Φ Φ (0) and ( ) ( ) ( [ ] ) ( ) ( ) E φ ψ ψ δ δ Φ Φ Φ + (0a) Accordng to Heckman (979) the correspondng log-lkelhood functon to be maxmzed wth respect to the parameters and can be derved as: ( ) ( ) ( ) Φ + Φ + Φ Ω 0 0 In ()

10 0 A natural startng pont for estmaton would be an extenson of Heckman s two-step estmator. In the frst step equaton (4) and (5) are estmated usng a Bvarate Probt Model (BPM) to obtan the two selectvt bas terms λ and λ (the nverse Mll s rato); whch are defned as (Greene 003): ] [ ]/ [ ) ( Φ Φ f φ λ (a) ] [ ]/ [ ) ( Φ Φ f A φ λ (b) 0 ] [ ]/ [ ) ( Φ Φ f N φ λ (c) The BPM utlses maxmum lkelhood estmaton (MLE) method to allow the stochastc error terms to be correlated across equatons. The parameter estmates the correlaton between the error terms of the BPM equatons (4) and (5). If the MLE estmate of the correlaton coeffcent s sgnfcant then the BPM estmaton s more effcent than that of ndependent Probt equatons. Fnall the sample selectvt adjusted sze of ssue equaton can be wrtten as: * 3 ) ( A A A A A E ε λ γ λ γ + + Π () Where 0 ) ( * * E A A A ε λ γ λ γ ε ε

11 E( Π + γ λ γ λ + ε (3) N N 0 ) 4 N N * N * * Where ε ε γ λ γ λ E ε 0 ) 0 N N N ( In the second estmaton stage (adaptaton) the Tobt ssue sze equatons ncorporate the probablt of the lmt and non-lmt observatons from the frst stage (awareness) estmaton and take nto account the correlaton across equatons. The correlaton could arse because the unobservable capture mght be correlated wth the unobservable that nfluence the choce of the form of awareness (Yes or No).e. the correlaton coeffcents from equatons (4) and (6) and equatons (5) and (6) mght not equal zero. The Heckman estmators descrbed above are consdered consstent even though not full effcent. To account for the possble correlaton between the three error terms the model was estmated n one step.e. full smultaneousl usng Full Informaton Maxmum Lkelhood (FIML) technques. In contrast to the two-step procedure such technque was consdered to produce consstent and full effcent estmates. 4. RESULTS The results are presented as descrptve statstcs for awareness n Table and descrptve statstcs for decsons to adapt or not to adapt to clmate change n Table. The dfferent tpes of adaptaton measures and chosen b lvestock farmers are hghlghted n Table 3 for the lvestock farmers who were aware and those who were aware and decded to adapt. Ths s followed b results of Heckman probt selecton model that are presented n Table 4.

12 Table : Descrptve statstcs (Awareness of clmate change) Dependent varableaware of clmate change (dumm: takes the value of f aware and f not aware): N50 Descrpton of varables Aware N 47(57%) Not aware N 07 (43%) (%) (%) Sze (sze) Gender (Gen) Male Female Age group (Age) Martal status (Mar) Sngle Marred Wdowed Separated Educatonal status (Educ) Pre School Standard Std Std Hgher None Total cattle and sheep owned: (Total) Formal extenson servces access (Exten) Yes No Informaton on lvestock (Infstock) Yes No Aware of drought (Awaredr) Yes No Temperature perceptons (Temps) Increased Decreased Same Not observed an changes Unpredctable Rans percepton: (Rans)

13 Increased.0.90 Decreased Same Floods Not observed an changes Erratc How acqured land (Howacq) Own fnance Bond Land reform Inhertance Not applcable Tablepresents data about lvestock farmers awareness of clmate change. Of mportance to the stud were the groups of varables wth hghest percentages. The results ndcated that 57% of a total of 50 lvestock farmers were more aware of clmate change and 43% were not aware durng the stud perod. Wth reference to household sze group (6-0) the percentages were aware (60.0%) not aware (53.30%). Wth gender 93.70% represented males who were aware of clmate change and 83.0% were males who were not aware of clmate change. The age group of 5-70 ears represented the group wth the hghest frequenc. In ths group 65.80% were aware of clmate change compared wth 56.00% who were not aware of clmate change. From the results 90.90% were marred people who were aware of clmate change and 84.0 % were not aware. Standard 6 level of educaton appeared to be the group wth the hghest percentage. In ths group 4.30% were aware compared wth 4.0% who were not aware. Among the lvestock farmers who owned -00 cattle and sheep 64.50% were aware of clmate change as opposed to 39.30% who were not aware. Surprsngl 7.70% of farmers who had no access to formal extenson servces were aware and 7.90% were not aware. Furthermore from those lvestock farmers who were aware of clmate change 74.80% ndcated that the dd not beneft from nformaton about clmate change n terms of lvestock mprovement and among those that were not aware 78.50% dd not beneft. From those who were aware 55.90% perceved an ncrease n temperatures and from those who were not aware 7.00% perceved an ncrease n temperatures. From those who were aware 74.0% perceved a decrease n ranfall whereas 9.60% from those who were not aware perceved a decrease n ranfall. A hgh percentage of those who 3

14 were aware and those who were not aware acqured land through nhertance wth a frequenc of 6.50% and 33.60% respectvel. Smlarl Table presents descrptve statstcs of lvestock farmers who were aware of clmate change and decded to select some adaptaton measures. Among 43 lvestock farmers who were aware of clmate change 7% selected some adapton measures as presented n Table and 9% dd not. Wth reference to household sze group (6-0) the percentages were adapted (58.40%) dd not adapt (64.30%). Wth regard to gender 96.00% represented those male lvestock farmers who adapted to clmate change and 88.0% were those who dd not. The age group of 5 70 ears represented the group of lvestock farmers wth the hghest percentage. In ths group 66.30% adapted and 64.30% dd not. The results from Table also ndcated that 90.0% of lvestock farmers were those marred farmers who adapted to clmate change and 9.90% dd not adapt. Standard 6 level of educaton appeared to be the group wth the hghest percentage. In ths group 40.60% adapted compared wth 4.90% who dd not. Among those lvestock farmers who owned -00 cattle and sheep 64.00% adapted to clmate change as opposed to 3.80% who dd not adapt. Out of the total of 0 lvestock farmers who adapted 63.40% had no access to formal extenson servces whle out of the total of 4 lvestock farmers 9.50% had access. Those lvestock farmers who adapted to clmate change 69.30% ndcated that the dd not beneft from nformaton about clmate change n terms of lvestock mprovement and among those who dd not adapt 88.0% dd not beneft. From those who adapted 50.50% perceved an ncrease n temperatures compared wth 69.00% who perceved an ncrease n temperature but dd not adapt. From those who adapted 75.0% perceved a decrease n ranfall whereas 7.40% were those who perceved a decrease but dd not adapt. A hgh percentage of those who adapted and those who dd not adapt dd not own land. The percentages were 3.70% and 5.40% respectvel. 4

15 Table : Descrptve statstcs (Adaptaton to clmate change) Dependent varableadaptaton to clmate change (dumm: takes the value of f adapted and f dd not adapt): N43 Descrpton of varables Adapt N 0 (7%) Not Adapt N 4 (9%) (%) (%) Sze (sze) Gender (Gen) Male Female Age group (Age) Martal status (Mar) Sngle Marred Wdowed Separated Educatonal status (Educ) Pre School Standard Std Std Hgher None Total cattle and sheep owned: (Total) Formal extenson servces access (Exten) Yes No Informaton on lvestock (Infstock) Yes No Not applcable Aware of drought (Awaredr) Yes No Temperature perceptons (Temps) Increased Decreased Same Unpredctable Rans percepton: (Rans) 5

16 Increased Decreased Same Floods Not observed an changes Erratc How acqured land (Howacq) Own fnance Bond Land reform Inhertance Not applcable Table 3 presents percentages of adaptaton measures selected b lvestock farmers who were aware of clmate change and those who were aware and adapted to clmate change. For those lvestock farmers who were onl aware of clmate and those who were aware and adapted dppng and dosng were common adaptaton measures. The percentages were 38.7% and 38.5% respectvel. The least common adaptaton measure was exchange of lvestock for the two groups. A stud b Ima (003) confrmed that lvestock farmers n rural Kena used lvestock as lqud assets. Other adaptaton measures were selected at dfferent percentage levels. Table 3: Adaptaton measures Aware: Measures (N 43) Aware and adapt: Measures (N 0) % % Supplementar feed Dp and Dose Feed supplement Sell stock to bu medcne Exchange stock Fence camps Portable water No adaptaton Total The results of the Heckman probt model were presented n Table 4. The results ndcated that the model had good overall predctve power as ndcated b the overall 76.0% predcton for the selecton model and 7.4% for the outcome model. The lkelhood rato 6 χ model. The lkelhood rato test was for selecton model and for the outcome χ tests were used to test the null hpothess for each of

17 the model that all coeffcents were zero. Gven the p-value of 0.0for both the tests the null hpothess for each model was rejected. The results from the selecton model whch predcted factors that affected awareness to clmate change ndcated that martal status level of educaton formal extenson temperatures and the wa n whch land used for farmng was acqured sgnfcantl affected awareness of clmate change. Varables that sgnfcantl affected adaptaton were: gender formal extenson nformaton receved about clmate change to mprove lvestock producton temperatures and the wa n whch land was acqured. χ Table 4: Results of the Heckman probt selecton model Awareness: Selecton model (N 50) Adaptaton: Outcome model (N 43) Β Sg B Sg Sze Gen * Age Mar 0.9** Educ 0.9* Total Formal extens 3.80*** * Infstock *** Awaredr Temps 0.436*** ** 0.04 Rans Howacq 0.3*** * Constant 7.580*** * Classfcaton: Yes 83.9% 84.% No 59.8% 5.% Overall 76.0% 7.4% Log lkelhood (df) (df) χ test (P<0.0) (P<0.0) P values are for slopes; ***P<0.0; ** P<0.05 and *P<0.0 Sgnfcant at % 5% and 0% probablt level respectvel 7

18 5. DISCUSSION The sgnfcant varables n the predcton of awareness and adaptaton were gender martal status educaton formal extenson nformaton on clmate change that mproved lvestock producton temperatures and also the wa n whch land for farmng was acqured. Gender had no sgnfcant effect on awareness but on adaptaton to clmate change. The stud showed that male farmers were more responsve to adaptaton measures (Table 4). A smlar stud that was conducted b Baard et al. (007) dscovered that male farmers were more responsve to adaptaton to envronmental degradaton b plantng alle crops n Hat. Other smlar studes conducted b Hassan and Nhemachena (008) and b Deressa et al. (009); Deressa et al. (00) ndcated that males were more responsve to adaptng to clmate change. The marred lvestock farmers were more aware (Table ) and adapted to clmate change (Table ). The possble reason was that those lvestock farmers ntervewed had famles who had staed n the area of stud for a reasonable amount of tme to observe clmate change. 8

19 The group wth standard 6 level of educaton showed more awareness (Table ) and adaptaton (Table ) to clmate change. Level of educaton sgnfcantl but negatvel affected awareness to clmate change and dd not have an sgnfcant effect on adaptaton (Table 4). The results ndcated that educaton dd not have a postve contrbuton to awareness. Although lvestock farmers n the area of stud adapted to clmate change educaton appeared not to be the contrbutng factor to adaptaton. Prevous research (Baard et al. 007) ndcated smlar results whereb educaton sgnfcantl but negatvel affected awareness to clmate change. A stud b Kabubo- Marara (008) dscovered that educaton was negatvel correlated wth adaptaton to sheep and goats rearng. The reason gven was that educated farmers had alternatve ncome earnng opportuntes. Ths s n contrar to a stud b Apata et al. (009) whch ndcated that educaton nfluenced adaptaton postvel. Besdes the stud b Deressa et al. (009) and Deressa et al. (00) ndcated smlar results that educaton of head of household ncreased the probablt of adaptng to clmate change. A hgh percentage (7.70%) n the whole sample dd not receve formal extenson servces and nformaton on lvestock (74.80%). Even from those who adapted to clmate change a small percentage (36.60%) receved formal extenson servces and 30.70% receved nformaton about clmate change. Formal extenson postvel and sgnfcantl affected awareness to clmate change and adaptaton. The more the farmers had access to extenson servces and nformaton about clmate change the more the adapted to clmate change (Luseno et al. 003). Formal extenson must 9

20 have plaed a role n nformng lvestock farmers about clmate change. Formal extenson servce b government seemed to be a good tool that could be used to ncrease awareness about clmate change to lvestock farmers n the stud area. Smlar research conducted b Hassan and Nhemachena (008) Apata et al. (009) Deressa et al. (00) and Bran et al. (009) ndcated that access to extenson servces had a strong postve nfluence on adaptng to clmate change. Smlar research conducted b D Emden et al. (008) ndcated that extenson attendance had sgnfcant effect on adopton of conservaton tllage n the croppng regons of Australa. Chen et a. (00) also terated that nformaton sharng about percepton about clmate change led to adaptaton n Chna and the results proved that the farmer s perceptons were correct. Access to nformaton about clmate change postvel and sgnfcantl affected adaptaton although t dd not have a sgnfcant effect on awareness. The results showed that meda plaed an mportant role n nformng lvestock farmers about clmate change as ths has ncreased the tendenc of adaptng to clmate change (Kandlnkar and Rsbe 000). A stud b Deressa et al. (009) dscovered that nformaton on clmate change ncreased adaptaton. Farmers used of dfferent crop varetes to reduce rsk. A hgh percentage of lvestock farmers (aware and not aware) were of the opnon that there was ncrease n temperatures durng the stud perod (Table ). Those who adapted also saw an ncrease n temperatures (Table ). Changes n temperatures had sgnfcant but negatve effect on awareness to clmate change and adaptaton thereof. Changes n temperatures dd not affect adaptaton to clmate change. On the contrar 0

21 n the stud conducted b Kabubo-Marara (008) farmers n Kena would reduce ther lvestock to reduce rsks and mnmse losses when temperatures ncreased. Agan a stud conducted b Galvn et al. (00) ndcated that lvestock owners would move ther lvestock n areas wth hgh clmate varablt. Hassan and Nhemachena (008) also ndcated that farmers shfted awa from mono-croppng and rrgated as a wa of adaptng to clmate change durng changes n temperatures. A smlar stud that was conducted b Apata et al. (009) ndcated that temperatures postvel affected adaptaton to clmate change. Fnall lvestock farmers who dd not own land had hgh frequenc of adaptaton measures although t was the same group that was aware and got land through nhertance. The wa n whch land was acqured sgnfcantl and postvel affected clmate change awareness and adaptaton. Both lvestock farmers who were aware and those who were aware and adapted acqured land through nhertance (Kabubo-Marana 005). 6. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION Ths paper nvestgated the extent of awareness of clmate change b cattle and sheep farmers n the Eastern Cape Provnce of South Afrca. It further explored adaptaton measures that the followed and factors that affected adapton measures. The stud was based on a cross-sectonal household surve data collected from 50 respondents of 500 households durng the farmng season. The Heckman s two step model was used to determne factors that affected awareness and adaptaton of

22 lvestock farmers to clmate change. The results from the selecton model whch predcted factors that affected awareness to clmate change ndcated that martal status formal extenson and the wa n whch land used for farmng was acqured sgnfcantl affected awareness of clmate change. Level of educaton and temperatures affected awareness sgnfcantl but negatvel. The results from the adaptaton model ndcated that the varables that sgnfcantl affected adaptaton were: gender nformaton receved about clmate change to mprove lvestock producton and the wa n whch land was acqured. Formal extenson and temperatures sgnfcantl affected adaptaton but negatvel. The stud suggests that the postve and sgnfcant varables that affected awareness and adaptaton whch were marred lvestock farmers formal extenson the wa n whch land was acqured gender nformaton on clmate change to mprove lvestock producton be consdered when adaptaton strateges are mplemented. It further suggests that government awareness programmes about clmate change awareness should focus more on marred lvestock farmers. It further suggests the need to provde tmel and approprate nformaton on clmate change through extenson programmes. The fact that the wa n whch land that was acqured was postve and sgnfcant n both selecton and adaptaton models ndcate ts effectve role n creatng awareness and adaptaton to clmate change. Gender whch postvel and sgnfcantl affected adaptaton suggested selecton of adaptaton strateges depends on males possbl because the are the ones who make decsons n the household farmng actvtes. Fnall nformaton on clmate change to mprove lvestock producton appeared to pla a sgnfcant role n the selecton of adaptaton

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26 Kandlnkar M and Rsbe J Agrcultural mpacts of clmate change: If adaptaton s the answer what s the queston? Clmatc Change Vol 45: Luseno W.K. Mcpeak J.G. Barrett C.B. Lttle D. Gebru G Assessng the value of clmate forecast nformaton for pastoralsts: Evdence from Southern Ethopa and Northern Kena. World Development 3(9): Turpe J Wrnkler H. Spaldng-Fecher R. and Mdgle G. 00. Economc mpacts of clmate change n South Afrca: A prelmnar analss of unmtgated damage costs. Southern Waters Ecologcal Research and Consultng and Energ and Development Research Centre Unverst of Cape Town Research paper: -56. Yesuf M. D Falco S. Deressa T. Rngler C. and Kohln G The mpact of clmate change and adaptaton on food producton n Low ncome countres. Evdence from the Nle basn Ethopa. IFPRI Dscusson Paper 0088 December