Used Values Update. Dealer Webinar presented by EDA and Machinery Pete

Transcription

1 Used Values Update Dealer Webinar presented by EDA and Machinery Pete

2 Used Values Index Through 3 rd Quarter 2017 (Index rating includes all types of farm equipment)

3 Used Values Index Through 3 rd Quarter 2017 Key Drivers This slight dip is seasonal in nature. In the prior five years Overall Index Rating fell during the 3 rd Quarter. Average drop in the past 4 years 3 rd Quarter = So to only fall 0.1 here is another win for holding used equipment values. If I did this Index report in August the Overall Index rating would have been lower, but auction pricing seemed to strengthen in September 2017 and into early October. What is becoming more pronounced is solid buyer demand for very good condition used equipment, even the late-model large equipment. Overall Index Rating 6.5 (compared with 2 nd Quarter 2017)

4 Used Values Index Through 3 rd Quarter 2017 Key Drivers The trend of smaller equals hotter holds true. Numerous dealers are reporting stronger-thanexpected sales of used combines one model series older. There are more farm auctions with the stated purpose from the farmer of stopping the equity drain. Despite the higher number of machinery auctions, overall auction pricing is basically holding after accounting for softer seasonal 2 nd and 3 rd Quarters. Based on local crop conditions, I began to see geographic difference in auction sale pricing. The lease return issue is becoming less of a thing. Overall Index Rating 6.5 (compared with 2 nd Quarter 2017)

5 Buyer Demand-Search Traffic Here s the search traffic from MachineryPete.com for the major categories with increased searches in 3 rd Quarter 2017 compared to 2 nd Quarter 2017 and 3 rd Quarter 2017 compared to 3 rd Quarter MachineryPete.com features 105,000 listings of equipment for sale from dealers across the country.

6 Tractors: Four-Wheel-Drive (Index rating includes all types of farm equipment) THIRD QUARTER RESULTS Used values dipped late June through August with a bit of bounce back in September 2017 Seeing stronger auction pricing on good condition used track tractors

7 Tractors: Four-Wheel-Drive NOTE: Machinery Pete s analysis is based on entire categories, not specific brands. Slightly Strong Pricing Seen Late 3 rd Quarter John Deere WD (made 2007 through 2011, 475 hp) with only 578 hours This is highest auction sale price on 9530 in the U.S. in 34 months. Phone buyer was from Canada. Used 4WD values been higher up in Canada for eight plus years now. $175,000 price in line on wholesale front given the super low hours. For comparison, the five highest price dealer 9530s listed for sale at ranged from $195,000 to $230,000 and had between 1,600 and 3,965 hours. Sept. 25, 2017, farm auction, southwest Michigan

8 Tractors: Four-Wheel-Drive NOTE: Machinery Pete s analysis is based on entire categories, not specific brands. Strong Auction Prices on Good Condition Used Track Tractors 2013 Case IH 550 Quad Trac with 917 hours This is the highest auction sale price on a 550 Quad Trac in 21 months. Sept. 19, 2017, online farm auction, west-central Minnesota

9 Tractors: Four-Wheel-Drive NOTE: Machinery Pete s analysis is based on entire categories, not specific brands. Softer Auction Pricing Seen Earlier in 3 rd Quarter 2001 John Deere 9100 with only 1,419 hours Auction firm was hoping for much higher dollars given the very low hours and very good condition. Aug. 29, 2017, farm auction, west-central Minnesota

10 Tractors: 200+ hp (Index rating includes all types of farm equipment) THIRD QUARTER RESULTS Basically holding values here, slight dip but that is historically normal for 3 rd Quarter Solid search traffic in this category signals continued buyer demand

11 Tractors: 200+ hp

12 Tractors: 200+ hp NOTE: Machinery Pete s analysis is based on entire categories, not specific brands. Solid Auction Price Not High or Low 2011 Versatile 305 (305 hp) with 1,063 hours Another 2011 model Versatile 305, this one with 647 hours, sold for $90,000 on consignment auction Jan. 28, 2017 in northeast Missouri. Sept. 12, 2017, farm auction, north-central Iowa.

13 Tractors: 200+ hp NOTE: Machinery Pete s analysis is based on entire categories, not specific brands. Pretty Good Buy on John Deere 8345R 2014 John Deere 8345R (345 hp) with 401 hours Good buy compared to $202,500 for 2015 model 8345R with 667 hours (same configuration) on June 27, 2017 online auction in southeast South Dakota, or $187,000 for 2014 model 8345R (same configuration) with 1,231 hours on June 12, 2017 farm auction in west central Kansas. July 18, 2017, farm auction, northwest Iowa

14 Tractors: 200+ hp NOTE: Machinery Pete s analysis is based on entire categories, not specific brands. Stronger Values on Slightly Older/Smaller Hp Tractors 2009 model John Deere 8130 (225 hp) with 1,071 hours This is tied for the highest auction sale price on an 8130 in 40 months. July 18, 2017, farm auction, northwest Iowa

15 Tractors: 130 to 200 hp (Index rating includes all types of farm equipment) THIRD QUARTER RESULTS Category Index rating been between since 1 st Quarter 2015 Used late model inventory situation on dealer lots much leaner versus higher horsepower used tractors Auction pricing for nicest condition/low-hour used tractors in this horsepower range closer to retail pricing level

16 Tractors: 130 to 200 hp

17 Tractors: 130 to 200 hp NOTE: Machinery Pete s analysis is based on entire categories, not specific brands. Record Auction Price 2012 Case IH Maxxum 140 (139 hp) with 501 hours and loader This is the highest auction price ever on Maxxum 140 sold with loader. Sept. 7, 2017, farm auction, north-central Iowa

18 Tractors: 130 to 200 hp NOTE: Machinery Pete s analysis is based on entire categories, not specific brands. Strong Resale on Used Kubota Tractors Kubota M135GX (135 hp) with 197 hours Record price for M135GX sold at auction without loader. Note this was a consignment auction as well, not a farm auction, but still the record price. Sept. 1, 2017, consignment auction, west-central Ohio NOTE: Kubota announced plans on Sept. 23, 2017 to build new $90M logistics hub in Kansas to deliver repair ag parts on next day basis beginning in 2019.

19 Tractors: 100 hp and Under (Index rating includes all types of farm equipment) THIRD QUARTER RESULTS Strength in general economy (low unemployment, rising 401K balances) fueling buying interest for new and used tractors in this lower horsepower range from hobby farm owners Very strong search traffic signals continued strong buyer demand Auction pricing remains at high, steady level. Index rating 8.0 or above since 4 th Quarter 2015

20 Tractors: 100 hp and Under

21 Tractors: 100 hp and Under NOTE: Machinery Pete s analysis is based on entire categories, not specific brands. Used Values & Buyer Demand Remain High During the months of July and August 2017 the most clicked on sub category of farm equipment at was: <40 hp Kubota Tractors

22 Combines (Index rating includes all types of farm equipment) THIRD QUARTER RESULTS Tiny slip in auction sale pricing on used combines during 3 rd Quarter is actually a sign of solid market as 3 rd Quarter is historically soft Slight increase in number of later model used combines sold at wholesale auction during 3 rd Quarter Auction pricing hurt by USDA Crop Reports in August that hurt commodity prices Dealers reporting solid sales of used combines one model series older, 4- to 8-year-old models Solid search traffic figures in combine category 3 rd Quarter, 102.9% jump in search traffic to combines For Sale By Dealer category at versus 2 nd Quarter Up 18.3% versus 3 rd Quarter 2016

23 Combines

24 Combines NOTE: Machinery Pete s analysis is based on entire categories, not specific brands. Some Strong, Some Soft Prices Gleaner S77 with 546 sep. hours Bidding almost stopped shy of $100K. $108K just barely crept up into bottom end of prices of recent comparable S77 combines sold at auction around North America. The rest of this auction saw solid to strong auction prices. Sept. 25, 2017, farm auction, southwest Michigan

25 Combines NOTE: Machinery Pete s analysis is based on entire categories, not specific brands. Higher Price Here John Deere S660 with 404 engine hours This was the highest auction sale price on a 2013 model S660 in 29 mo. September 3, 2017, farm auction, east-central Illinois

26 Combines NOTE: Machinery Pete s analysis is based on entire categories, not specific brands. Solid Buyer Demand & Pricing on Nice Older Model Combines 2006 Case IH 2377 with 2,197 engine hours (no heads) Sept. 17, 2017, farm auction, western Minnesota Case IH 2377 with 1,754 engine hours (no heads) Sept. 8, 2017, farm auction, west-central Ohio

27 Combines NOTE: Machinery Pete s analysis is based on entire categories, not specific brands. Dealers Moving out Older Late Model Used Combines Nine-store John Deere dealer in eastern Kansas/western Missouri reported that 2017 was a surprisingly strong year in terms of moving out excess used combine inventory, particularly buyers were after the one series older model used combines, so 5 to 10 years old. They got aggressive in their pricing and found buyers were there. I have heard similar echoes from other large (very) central U.S. dealers. The market sweet spot has been in these 5- to 10-year-old used combines in very nice condition. Buyer demand is stronger than anticipated, which makes sense given sales of new combines and large ag equipment have been slower now for 3+ years. Farmers still have to farm and these slightly older nice condition machines don t cost as much as later model used units.

28 Grain Handling Equipment (Index rating includes all types of farm equipment) THIRD QUARTER RESULTS Similar to large equipment categories, same Index rating here since 1 st Quarter 2016 Bit softer pricing seen on larger capacity size grain carts Stronger auction pricing seen on used gravity wagons (smaller capacity versus grain carts) Increasing buyer interest/demand on grain carts with tracks Used values holding steady in equipment categories where most items sell for < $20K range

29 Grain Handling Equipment

30 Grain Handling Equipment NOTE: Machinery Pete s analysis is based on entire categories, not specific brands. Steady Buyer Demand for Good Condition Used Equipment < $20K Brent 744 gravity wagon Highest auction price on 744 in 36 months. Aug. 26, 2017, farm auction, east-central Iowa

31 Hay and Forage Equipment (Index rating includes all types of farm equipment) THIRD QUARTER RESULTS Continued strong buyer interest/demand for good used hay equipment Softer auction pricing on large capacity later model forage harvesters and large square balers Continued strong auction pricing seen on smaller used hay equipment

32 Hay and Forage Equipment

33 Hay and Forage Equipment NOTE: Machinery Pete s analysis is based on entire categories, not specific brands. Big Square Balers See Softer Prices 2014 Massey Ferguson 2250 big square baler, done 1,460 bales, no applicator This is far away from advertised retail price on used lots. Sept. 27, 2017, online auction, Wisconsin

34 Tillage Equipment (Index rating includes all types of farm equipment) THIRD QUARTER RESULTS Used values remaining flat overall Somewhat softer prices seen in general on larger size used tillage equipment items Somewhat strong prices seen on good condition smaller size used tillage items Buyer demand/search traffic falling in tillage category Softer pricing on average condition used tillage, better pricing on good to excellent condition tillage Location/geography playing more important role in used tillage values First time tillage category Index rating slipped below 7.0

35 Tillage Equipment

36 Tillage Equipment NOTE: Machinery Pete s analysis is based on entire categories, not specific brands. Strong Auction Price on Disk from Texas Landoll ' disk, like new This is a strong price, and I ve been seeing strong auction pricing from Texas in 2017 (rain, stronger yields). Sept. 30, 2017, farm auction, east-central Texas

37 Planting and Seeding Equipment (Index rating includes all types of farm equipment) THIRD QUARTER RESULTS Flat Index rating here a sign of solidifying used planter market as prior three years Index rating slipped lower in 3 rd Quarter not this year Dealers expressing strong local farmer interest in buying new planters. Farmers want the technology Softer auction pricing remains on older used planters and also on average condition used planters Solid pricing seen on nice condition later model used planters

38 Planting and Seeding Equipment

39 Planting and Seeding Equipment NOTE: Machinery Pete s analysis is based on entire categories, not specific brands. Solid Price Indicates Buyer Demand 2013 John Deere 1770NT planter, 16R-30, done 2,000 acres, like new Aug. 19, 2017, farm auction, southeast Nebraska

40 Self-Propelled Sprayers (Index rating includes all types of farm equipment) THIRD QUARTER RESULTS Continued rise of used self-propelled sprayer values, Index rating up to 6.4 form 5.4 back in 2 nd Quarter 2016 Search traffic on used self-propelled Sprayers Up 50.8% 3 rd Quarter 2017 versus 3 rd Quarter 2016 Solid auction pricing seen

41 Self-Propelled Sprayers

42 Self-Propelled Sprayers NOTE: Machinery Pete s analysis is based on entire categories, not specific brands. Strong Hard Cash Auction Price Realized Miller Nitro 5300 with only 201 hours Here s a strong price pushing past $225K on a hard cash basis. I talked with the buyer. He was very happy and had been looking for this quality of used sprayer for some time. Sept. 25, 2017, farm auction, southwest Michigan

43 Trends in Used Tractor, Combine and Sprayer Values & Outlook

44 Machinery Pete: The No. 1 expert for used equipment values. Network of Sources. Greg Peterson, known as Machinery Pete, has built a network of 1,000 regional auctioneers, 600 ag lenders, 2,000 implement dealers and thousands of farmers throughout the U.S. and Canada. Auction Data. Since 1989, Machinery Pete has compiled more than 500,000 auction prices on all types of used farm and construction equipment sold throughout North America. Trusted Commentator. A widely sought-out speaker, Peterson regularly presents to farmer and investor audiences. He has more than 100,000 social media followers, and in 2016, his YouTube videos were watched for more than 10.8 million minutes. Marketing Partner. In 2015, Machinery Pete launched a dealer listings site with 105,000 listings and analytics and marketing services for equipment dealers. National Media. Peterson is the multimedia expert on used equipment values for Farm Journal Media, including print and broadcast. Now in its fourth season, Machinery Pete TV, a weekly 30-minute show, launched on RFD-TV in November youtube.com/machinerypete