Jim Skea, IPCC WG III Co-chair. CIRED, Nogent sur Marne 12 January 2017

Transcription

1 Brainstorming session on IPCC Special Report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems Jim Skea, IPCC WG III Co-chair CIRED, Nogent sur Marne 12 January 2017

2 Special Report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems (currently SR2 for short)

3 Builds on three country proposals for Special Reports Algeria: Climate Change and Desertification Ireland: Special Report on Climate Change, Food and Agriculture Saudi Arabia: Special Report on Desertification with Regional Aspects

4 Precursors IPCC Expert Meeting on Climate Change, Food, and Agriculture, Dublin, May 2015 IPCC-FAO co-sponsored expert meeting on Climate Change, Land Use and Food Security, Rome, January 2017 IPCC-FAO-ITPS co-sponsored expert meeting on Soil Organic Carbon, Rome, March 2017

5 In parallel IPBES Thematic assessment on land degradation and restoration Deliverable 3(b)(i)

6 Under the scientific leadership of: WG I (Physical science) WG II (Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability) WG III (Mitigation) Task Force on Inventories Operational support WG III

7 Scientific steering committee Chair: Youba Sokona (Mali) Vice-chair: Andy Reisinger (New Zealand) Background documentation Meeting design Stakeholder consultation Nominations Pete Smith (UK) Carolina Vera (Argentina) Taha Zatari (Saudi Arabia) Eduardo Calvo (Peru) Mark Howden (Australia) Ko Barrett (US) Jan Fuglestvedt (Norway) Diana Urge-Vorsatz (Hungary) Thelma Krug (Brazil) Nagmeldin Goutbi Mahmoud (Sudan) Nouredddine Yasaa (Algeria) Panmao Zhai (China) Valerie Masson-Delmotte (France) Carlos Mendez (Venezuela) Ramon Pichs-Madruga (Cuba) Debra Roberts (South Africa) Cheikh Mbow (Senegal) Sergey Semenov (Russia) Jim Skea (UK) PR Shukla (India) Andy Reisinger (New Zealand) Hans Pörtner (Germany) Pep Canadell (Australia)

8 Stakeholder consultation Questionnaire to governments and IPCC observer organisations Original deadline 25 November 2016 extended to 13 January 2017 In-depth consultation meetings with: UNCCD FAO (IPBES)

9 The questionnaire

10 Questionnaire word cloud

11 Question 2: What are the highest priority questions, in the context of climate change, that this report should address What is the current state of land degradation? (~15% of responses) What are the drivers of desertification, land degradation, changes in GHG fluxes and food security? and how do they relate to climate change? (~40% of responses) What mitigation actions can be taken? What practical steps can ensure they are effective? (~25% of responses) How can mitigation contribute to food security and resilience? (~30% of responses) What is the role of water management in tackling desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and GHG gas fluxes? (~25% of responses) What is the extent of feedback between sustainable land management choices and impacts on desertification, land degradation, food security, and GHG fluxes? (~20% of responses)

12 Question 4: Please highlight any gaps in previous IPCC assessments or emerging knowledge since the IPCC AR5 (including scientific, technological, policy) that you consider highly relevant for this Special Report. How best to advise policy makers on viable solutions. Examples of policy instruments that realise greenhouse gas abatement in the land sector. How to capture and act upon local and indigenous knowledge. Importance of social capital in transformational scenarios. Improvements in remote sensing. Tipping points and non-linear processes. Assumptions on negative emissions need to be critically examined.

13 Question 5: What should be the distinctive features of this report that are not captured by other reports planned or under preparation by other international organizations? The key distinctive feature is the opportunity to integrate knowledge across traditional boundaries to provide an interdisciplinary perspective on how climate change relates to anthropogenic land use change and sustainable development goals.

14 Question 7: Should this Special Report be organised according to the five areas that will be covered (desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems)? If not, how would you propose organising the report so that the five areas are covered? One chapter for each theme (supported by ~24% of stakeholders). One chapter for each theme plus cross cutting chapters (supported by ~6% of stakeholders) Adopt a structure that emphasises the interlinkages between themes (supported by ~32% of stakeholders).

15 Other suggested structures Structure according to: "Drivers (to include desertification and land degradation), "Impacts" and "Solutions" or Problems, solutions, interactions Have a report structure more related to impacts and adaptation on one side and fluxes, scenarios and mitigation on the other side. Greenhouse gas fluxes cuts across all other areas so could be better placed as a defined sub-section within each area. There is significant overlap between the topics of desertification and land degradation, it would be preferable to combine these two areas explicitly.

16 Timeline Scoping meeting: Dublin,13-16 February 2017 Plenary approval of outline: March 2017 Call for author nominations: 10 April 21 May 2017 Selection of authors: 7 July 2017 LAM 1: 9-13 October 2017 LAM 2: March 2018 LAM 3: 3-7 July 2018 LAM 4: February 2019 Approval session: 2-6 September 2019

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