AnalysIng Resilience for better targeting and action

Transcription

1 AnalysIng Resilience for better targeting and action FAO resilience analysis report No RESILIENCE INDEX MEASUREMENT AND ANALYSIS II y RIMA II

2 Cover picture: FAO \ Marco Letta

3 ANALYSING RESILIENCE FOR TARGETING AND ACTION FAO Resilience Analysis report No. 11 Resilience Analysis in JO r d a n Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Rome, 2018

4 The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers, whether or not these have been patented, does not imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The views expressed in this information product are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of FAO. ISBN FAO, 2018 FAO encourages the use, reproduction and dissemination of material in this information product. Except where otherwise indicated, material may be copied, downloaded and printed for private study, research and teaching purposes, or for use in non-commercial products or services, provided that appropriate acknowledgement of FAO as the source and copyright holder is given and that FAO s endorsement of users views, products or services is not implied in any way. All requests for translation and adaptation rights, and for resale and other commercial use rights should be made via or addressed to copyright@fao.org. FAO information products are available on the FAO website ( and can be purchased through publications-sales@fao.org. This publication has been produced with the assistance of the European Union. The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of FAO and can in no way be taken to reflect the views of the European Union

5 iii CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS... v ACRONYMS... vi 1 KEY MESSAGES BACKGROUND MAIN FINDINGS; POLICY AND PROGRAMMING IMPLICATIONS METHODOLOGY AND COVERAGE NEXT STEPS REFERENCES ANNEX I RESILIENCE MEASUREMENT ANNEX II DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS FIGURES 1 Location of Jordan Pillars share of the RCI Whole sample AC pillar variables share of AC Whole sample RCI heterogeneity by governorate Heterogeneity in Food insecurity between governorates (DoS, 2016) Share of RCI pillars by governorate Share of RCI pillars by gender of the household head Share of RCI pillar by nationality of the household head Share of RCI pillars by nationality of household head in Amman Share of RCI pillars by nationality of household head in Mafraq A1 RIMA-II Methodology A2 Share of ABS variables in Jordan A3 Share of AST variables in Jordan A4 Share of SSN variables in Jordan... 37

6 iv RESILIENCE ANALYSIS IN JORDAN, 2013 TABLES A1 Definition of resilience pillars and food security indicators A2 Variables emloyed in the RIMA-II model A3 MIMIC regression results A4 RCI and shocks A5 Food expenditure and shocks A6 FCS and shocks A7 Food expenditure and pillar variables A8 FCS and pillar variables A9 Descriptive statistics - Pillar variables A10 RCI heterogeneity... 44

7 v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report has been prepared by the Resilience Analysis and Policies (RAP) team of FAO s Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA). Special thanks go to Marco Letta, Stefania Di Giuseppe, Marco d Errico, Rebecca Pietrelli, Doussou Traore and Genevieve Theodorakis, and to Luca Russo from the Resilience Programme Management Team (SP5), for their contributions of technical information. Tomaso Lezzi and Giorgia Wizemann worked on the formatting and layout of the publication. Alecia Wood completed the editing. The team acknowledges Rene Verduijn, Craig Von Hagen, Ahmad Hiyari and the Regional Food Security Analysis Network (RFSAN) (a joint FAO and immap initiative), as well as Nasredin Hag Elamin and the whole FAO Jordan team, for their invaluable support. Thanks are also extended to the Jordanian Department of Statistics for sharing the Household Expenditure and Income Survey (HEIS) 2013 data upon which this analysis is based.

8 vi RESILIENCE ANALYSIS IN JORDAN, 2013 ACRONYMS ABS AC ASI AST CSI DoS ESCWA FA FCS FHH GDP GIEWS HEIS HH JRP JRPSC MENA MHH MIMIC MOPIC NDVI OLS PoU RAP RCI RFSAN RIMA RSM SEM Access to Basic Services Adaptive Capacity Agricultural Stress Index Assets Coping Strategy Index Department of Statistics of Jordan United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia Factor Analysis Food Consumption Score Female-Headed Household Gross Domestic Product Global Information and Early Warning System Household Expenditure and Income Survey Household Head Jordan Response Plan Jordan Response Platform for the Syria Crisis Middle East and North Africa Male-Headed Household Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation of Jordan Normalized Difference Vegetation Index Ordinary Least Squares Prevalence of Undernourishment Resilience Analysis and Policies (team) Resilience Capacity Index Regional Food Security Analysis Network Resilience Index Measurement and Analysis Resilience Structure Matrix Structural Equation Model

9 Acronyms vii SSN TLU UNDP UNHCR UNICEF UNRWA USD WASH WFP Social Safety Nets Tropical Livestock Units United Nations Development Programme United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees United Nations Children s Fund United Nations Relief and Work Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East United States Dollar Water, sanitation and hygiene Word Food Programme

10 FAO \ Marco Letta

11 1 1 KEY MESSAGES This section summarizes the main results of the analysis and related implications for policy and programming. KEY MESSAGE 1 Promoting access to education, productive assets and water services are the three strongest policy avenues for boosting resilience to food security in Jordan. Adaptive capacity, assets and access to basic services are strongly linked to household resilience capacity in Jordan. This is reflected in the resilience pillar 1 of Adaptive Capacity (AC), in particular, which accounts for almost half of the resulting Resilience Capacity Index (RCI) for the overall sample. In turn, AC is almost completely determined by its variables related to the education level of household members (both the average level of education of household members, and of the household head (HH)). Similarly, resilience to food insecurity is reinforced when households have access to productive assets and water services, which are variables that form key elements of the Assets (AST) and Access to Basic Services (ABS) pillars. Therefore, the key driver of resilience capacity in Jordan is primarily education, followed by productive assets and safe and stable access to water. The importance of education in building resilience is consistent with previous findings by the Department of Statistics of Jordan (DoS), which found that food security is linked to a large extent to the education level of the HH (DoS, 2016). Non-productive assets and a higher number of working age household members also positively contribute to the resilience of households. Conversely, the Social Safety Nets (SSN) pillar (which comprises both public and private transfers as variables) plays a very small and negligible role in determining resilience to food insecurity in Jordan at the national level. 1 The resilience pillars form part of the RIMA-II methodology, which is used in this report. The resilience pillars selected for this analysis are: Access to Basic Services (ABS), Assets (AST), Social Safety Nets (SNN), and Adaptive Capacity (AC). Further information on the variables that comprise each resilience pillar, how they are estimated, and the full RIMA-II methodology can be found in Annex 1.

12 2 RESILIENCE ANALYSIS IN JORDAN, 2013 These results indicate the need for policies to be designed for the least resilient areas of Jordan to foster higher education levels, and to promote investments aimed at improving water infrastructure and water availability at the household level, since such services play a decisive role in determining households ability to withstand shocks and stressors. The commitment of the Jordanian government to increase access to inclusive education, as outlined in the Jordan Response Plan (JRP) (MOPIC, 2017), is a step forward in this direction. However, a more disaggregated approach is needed to better target vulnerable categories (such as female-headed households (FHHs) see Key Message 3) and geographic areas. Regarding water policies, the main recommendation to improve access to basic social services for households is through ongoing water health programmes, as outlined by the Jordanian government in the JRP (MOPIC, 2017). In this respect, UN agencies (namely the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the United Nations Children s Fund (UNICEF), and the World Food Programme (WFP)) and partners should play a key role in essential activities such as water quality monitoring, and project management and technical support in wastewater reuse. These policies should especially focus on the least resilient governorates 2 (see Key Message 2). Policies aimed at building the productive and non-productive asset base of households in Jordan should also be a key area of collaboration and intervention by FAO and partners together with the Government of Jordan. KEY MESSAGE 2 Closing gaps in access to water services at the regional level could play an important role in diminishing regional inequalities in household resilience capacity. Regional disparities are the most important source of inequality with reference to household resilience capacity in Jordan. There are in fact large differences in resilience capacity at the governorate level. Irbid is the governorate with the highest RCI of 68.3 out of 100, while Zarqa has the lowest RCI (54.2), followed by Mafraq (54.7). These results are again consistent with previous findings by the DoS with regard to vulnerability to food insecurity (DoS, 2016). While education is shown to be the main determinant of resilience capacity in all governorates, there is considerable variation between governorates in access to basic services. This is mainly driven by inequality in safe and stable access to water. Finally, transfers play a negligible role in almost all governorates, with partial exceptions where social safety nets seem to matter more (namely in the governorates of Karak and Tafiela). Addressing regional inequality should be considered a top priority by national and international policymakers. In this respect, policies on water services in the least resilient governorates should be coupled with an increase in public investment in particularly vulnerable geographic areas and pockets of food insecurity in the country. 2 A governorate (known as a muhafazah in Arabic) is the first-level administrative division of Jordan. The country is currently divided into twelve governorates: Amman, Balqa, Zarqa, Madaba, Irbid, Mafraq, Jarash, Ajloun, Karak, Tafiela, Ma an, Aqaba. All of them are included in the analysis carried out in this report.

13 Chapter 1 Key messages 3 KEY MESSAGE 3 Although FHHs are significantly less resilient than MHHs, encouraging increased access to basic services and education could reduce disparities in resilience capacity between genders. FHHs have lower access to basic services and are less educated (and hence they have lower figures for the AC pillar) compared to MHHs. Furthermore, monetary transfers are significantly more relevant to FHHs than to MHHs for influencing resilience capacity. Therefore, there is evidence that while transfers (especially public ones, given these are the main driver of the SSN pillar) make up in part for the gap in resilience capacity between MHHs and FHHs, these only partially offset the significant variation in resilience capacity between MHHs and FHHs. Consequently, FHH access to higher levels of education and to essential services must be increased. Investment targeting these issues is thus key, while public transfers for FHHs are and will be an important tool for policymakers until the gender gap in resilience capacity is eventually closed. KEY MESSAGE 4 Although Jordanian-headed households excel in resilience capacity relative to non-jordanianheaded households, improving access to public services and transfers can help enhance the resilience capacity of non-jordanian-headed households. Jordanian-headed households are significantly more resilient than non-jordanian-headed households. 3 Non-Jordanian-headed households have fewer assets and lower access to services, such as water. As in the case of the above-mentioned gender gap, these deficiencies are partially compensated for by the more significant role of public transfers and subsidies from the National Aid Fund for non-jordanian-headed households. These findings are true for both the least resilient, rural governorates (namely, Mafraq) and the most resilient and urbanized ones (namely, Amman), suggesting this heterogeneity is widespread throughout the country. Even though the dataset employed in this analysis is not representative of the share of non-jordanian nationalities in the country (see Section 2 Methodology and Coverage), which prevents a more in-depth analysis, these findings point to the need for targeted interventions to reduce inequality within the key drivers of resilience capacity (in particular assets and access to basic services) between nationalities at the national, governorate and district levels. KEY MESSAGE 5 Food shortages, household illnesses and droughts are the most significant shocks impacting resilience to food insecurity in Jordan, prompting the need for policy tools such as early warning mechanisms and initiatives to boost household income. Food shortages, illness of household members and droughts (especially if prolonged over time) are the types of shocks that most significantly and negatively affect the resilience to food insecurity of households in Jordan. 3 Non-Jordanian-headed households include all households whose household head is not Jordanian and falls into one of the other nationality categories available in the survey, namely Syrian, Egyptian, Iraqi, Other Arab and Non-Arab. See Section 2, Methodology and Coverage for more detailed information.

14 4 RESILIENCE ANALYSIS IN JORDAN, 2013 FAO together with other international actors should prioritize investments to target food stability, which in this instance is the most important of the four dimensions of food security, 4 as well as sanitation and medical services. In this respect, the fact that the JRP presents specific objectives regarding food security (for instance, Specific Objective 1 of the food security section) and sanitation (for instance, Specific Objective 2 of the water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) section) present appropriate solutions for the medium term, and should be attributed technical assistance and support by international actors in the implementation phase. However, more comprehensive and long-term interventions are also needed to foster diversification of income sources at the household level, so as to make households less vulnerable to unpredictable shocks and stressors. Furthermore, contingency plans and early warning mechanisms for recurring exogenous shocks, such as droughts, and provision of timely information to Jordanian households to assist in disaster preparation and mitigation are also key in reducing risk exposure. This is especially the case in view of the future impacts of climate change in the region. 5 4 The other three dimensions of food security are food availability, access and utilization. For food security to be achieved, all four dimensions must be fulfilled simultaneously. 5 The impacts of climate change in Jordan are predicted to be severe, especially because they will exacerbate issues such as water stress and desertification, which already represent serious challenges for the country (World Bank, 2016). See the Background section of this report for further detail on water stress in Jordan.

15 FAO \ Riccardo Gangale

16 FAO \ Marco Letta

17 7 2 BACKGROUND This section introduces background information on Jordan. The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan referred to hereafter as Jordan is an Arab country in West Asia (see Figure 1), with a population of approximately 9.5 million people (World Bank, 2017a), of which the vast majority (84 percent), live in urban areas (World Bank, 2017b), and a significant share (more than two million people, according to the United Nations Relief and Work Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) (2017)), are registered Palestinian refugees. Jordan is an upper middle-income country, ranking 86 th in the Human Development Index (UNDP, 2017). Despite this, the country currently faces significant challenges to its socioeconomic system; economic growth in recent years has been sluggish, and the rate of unemployment reached a historic high of 15.3 percent in 2016 (World Bank, 2017c). The geopolitical situation is also very delicate. As of August 2017, Jordan is home to more than UN-registered Syrian refugees 6 (WFP, 2017). While Jordan has traditionally been able to maintain its stability despite being located in one of the most unstable regions in the world, regional tensions especially considering the operational requirements and socioeconomic impacts of the influx of Syrian refugees into Jordan are placing strain on the Jordanian economy (UNDP and UNICEF, 2015). Jordan is located in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, often considered one of the most food insecure regions in the world. Pockets of persistent food insecurity in the country are present, especially in communities and areas that were affected by the 2008 economic crisis and those that are now hosting refugees (WFP, 2017). These factors likely contributed to a rise in the Prevalence of Undernourishment (PoU), which increased by more than 50 percent from 2009 to (World Bank, 2017d). 6 The influx of Syrian refugees entering Jordan started at the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in As of 2017, 21 percent of registered refugees in Jordan are living in refugee camps. Almost 90 percent of refugees in Jordan are concentrated in four governorates, namely Amman, Irbid, Mafraq and Zarqa. This refugee crisis has been a source of political tension and increasing pressure on the Jordanian socioeconomic system, as well as a strain on the country s already scarce water resources. 7 Authors calculation from World Bank data (World Bank, 2017d).

18 8 RESILIENCE ANALYSIS IN JORDAN, 2013 Jordan also faces extreme water scarcity, being among the world s four most water-stressed countries (WFP, 2017). As reported by the Jordan Response Platform for the Syria Crisis (JRPSC), by the start of the Syria crisis the demand for water resources had increased by as much as 40 percent in areas heavily populated by Syrian refugees (MOPIC, 2017). On top of this, the country is faced with a steep increase in water demand as a result of rapid population growth, income growth and urbanization (World Bank, 2016). According to World Bank (2017d), value-added agriculture only accounts for less than 4 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Jordan. This, coupled with frequent and prolonged droughts and desertification, makes Jordan a net importer of food. Despite this, in some rural areas, especially in governorates that are traditionally the poorest, agriculture still represents the main source of income at the household level. This analysis has been conducted using the 2013 Household Expenditure and Income Survey (HEIS) dataset provided by the DoS. The 2013 HEIS survey covers the whole country, making the sample representative not only at the national level, but also at the governorate, district and sub-district levels. The RIMA-II 8 econometric analysis was carried out using a sample of households taken from the 2013 HEIS survey. This subsample is still representative thanks to the use of sampling weights provided by the DoS, which were consistently applied across the entire analysis. Figure 1. Location of Jordan Source: Own elaboration. 8 Annex I includes an explanation of the RIMA-II methodology, and details of how the RCI and resilience pillars are estimated from observed variables.

19 FAO \ Riccardo Gangale

20 FAO \ Marco Khalil Mazraawi Letta

21 11 3 MAIN FINDINGS; POLICY AND PROGRAMMING IMPLICATIONS This section presents the main findings of the RIMA-II analysis and provides related policy and programming implications. MAIN FINDING 1 Of the four pillars, AC represents the most important pillar in determining household resilience capacity in this sample; within this, the variables related to education levels are the most important component of the RCI. The importance of education in determining resilience capacity in Jordan can be further understood by examining the share of household RCI attributed to the AC pillar (see Figure 2) which is by far the most important of the four pillars and the share of AC pillar variables that make up the pillar itself (see Figure 3), in which the education level (both the average education level of household members and the education level of the HH) accounts for the majority of that pillar. This is not a surprising result, since generally more educated people are also usually wealthier on average, which consequently makes them more resilient. Furthermore, Jordan is a highly urbanized country that has reached a relatively high average level of education and has successfully achieved universal primary education for its population; statistically the variables related to education have proven to play a primary role in determining people s ability to cope with shocks in Jordan. Indeed, this finding is consistent with previous DoS findings that employed the same dataset: Food insecurity is linked to a large extent to the education level of the head of household. Households whose heads are illiterate or barely literate are more at risk of food insecurity and vulnerability (DoS, 2016). As the most important determinant of resilience capacity, the variables that make up the AC pillar could be further strengthened by investments in factors aside from education, such as the dependency ratio (the number of employed people per household compared to the number of unemployed people). Looking at Figure 3 above, in fact, the data suggests that improvements in the dependency ratio (ie. a higher number of employed people relative to unemployed people) could further bolster resilience.

22 12 RESILIENCE ANALYSIS IN JORDAN, 2013 Figure 2. Pillars share of the RCI Whole sample ABS AST SSN AC Source: Authors own calculation, based on HEIS (2013). Figure 3. AC pillar variables share of AC Whole sample Average education HH Education Dependency ratio Participation Index Source: Authors own calculation, based on HEIS (2013). The relatively low contribution of the dependency ratio to the AC pillar for Jordan could be a product of the country s young population in 2017, half of the Jordanian population was under the age of 22.

23 Chapter 3 Main findings; policy and programming implications 13 Provided that Jordan s economy can continue to generate jobs for new entrants to the labour market, the dependency ratio will likely play a growing role in promoting household adaptive capacity, and food security resilience more broadly. Similar logic can also be applied to the participation index, which is based on the number of income-generating activities undertaken by a household. This currently makes a marginal contribution to the AC pillar, and thus consequently to household resilience capacity as well. POLICY AND PROGRAMMING IMPLICATIONS hh Given the preeminent role played by education in determining households resilience to food insecurity in Jordan, the primary recommendation for policymakers that stems from this analysis is to increase access to education for the least resilient populations (see Main Finding 2 below) in order to empower them to cope with shocks and reduce their vulnerability by improving the main driver of resilience capacity. In particular, enhancing access to education will be crucial for improving the performance of other variables such as the participation index. hh The section regarding education in the JRP (MOPIC, 2017) mainly focuses on the improvement of education authorities and facilities; while this is indeed positive, a more targeted approach is needed in order to enhance education opportunities for the least resilient populations (e.g. young women). hh In order to enhance food security, specific programmes should target an increase in income diversification at the household level, especially for vulnerable categories, which would boost adaptive capacity and consequently household resilience capacity. MAIN FINDING 2 Heterogeneity in household resilience capacity is detected at multiple levels: governorate, gender of the HH, and nationality of the HH. Resilience capacity inequality is thus very high in Jordan. Households with male and Jordanian HHs that are located in the most affluent governorates are better off in terms of resilience capacity; FHHs and non-jordanian-headed households located in the poorest governorates are the worst off groups. This sharp and widespread heterogeneity in resilience capacity is very statistically significant and mostly driven by a divergence in education levels of household members, productive and non-productive asset ownership, and access to essential services such as water.

24 14 RESILIENCE ANALYSIS IN JORDAN, HETEROGENEITY AT THE GOVERNORATE LEVEL Figure 4 below shows resilience heterogeneity by governorates. Irbid and Ajloun are the governorates with the highest household resilience capacity, while Zarqa, Balqa and Mafraq are the least resilient ones. Figure 4. RCI heterogeneity by governorate Resilience Capacity Index Amman Balqa Zarqa Madaba Irbid Mafraq Jarash Ajlun Karak Tafiela Ma an Aqaba Source: Authors own calculation, based on HEIS (2013). These findings are consistent with previous analyses by the DoS, which also detected strong regional heterogeneity in vulnerability to food insecurity (see Figure 5). Figure 5. Heterogeneity in Food Insecurity between governorates (DoS, 2016) 10 8 Food insecure HHs Vulnerable HHs Ajloun Amman Aqaba Balqa Irbid Jarash Karak Ma an Madaba Mafraq Tafiela Zarqa Source: Author s reproduction from DoS (2016).

25 Chapter 3 Main findings; policy and programming implications 15 This discrepancy in resilience capacity across governorates can be explained by a number of factors. Figure 6 below shows a comparison between the share of resilience pillars for the RCIs of each governorate. While the evidence suggests that education variables within the AC pillar are the most important component of household resilience in all governorates, the roles of the other pillars (AST, ABS and SSN) in determining resilience capacity exhibit a large degree of variation between governorates. Figure 6. Share of RCI pillars by governorate 100 Components share (%) ABS AST SSN AC 0 Amman Balqa Zarqa Madaba Irbid Mafraq Jarash Ajlun Karak Tafiela Ma an Aqaba Source: Authors own calculation, based on HEIS (2013) Assets (both productive and non-productive, agricultural and non-agricultural) are an important component of resilience capacity in all governorates, but their contribution to resilience is much higher in some governorates (Ma an and Ajlun) than in others (Amman and Tafiela). However, despite this strong heterogeneity in terms of the importance of the AST pillar, this heterogeneity does not correspond to the division between the most resilient and least resilient governorates, and there is not a clear pattern that can be discerned to explain the variation of this pillar in determining the RCI. There is a significant discrepancy in access to basic services across governorates. The figures for the ABS pillar (represented in blue in Figure 6) are very low in some governorates (Ma an, Irbid, Jarash and Zarqa) and highest in Amman, the most populated and urbanized governorate; the most significant variable within the ABS pillar is safe and stable access to (public) water (see Figure A2 in Annex I). Despite being the most resilient governorate, Irbid likely has limited access to basic services relative to other, more urbanized governorates due to the fact it is located in the north of the country, where water stress and increased demand for water have increased as a consequence of the influx of Syrian refugees, according to the Jordanian government (MOPIC, 2017). The SSN pillar is the lowest contributor to household food security in all governorates, irrespective of their level of resilience capacity. The only governorates where public transfers are a relevant driver of resilience capacity are Karak and Tafiela (which score below average in terms of resilience capacity see Table A10); in the most resilient governorates Irbid, Ajloun and Amman the role of transfers in determining resilience capacity is very close to zero, due to the fact that households in these governorates are more resilient and thus there is less or no need for safety nets.

26 16 RESILIENCE ANALYSIS IN JORDAN, 2013 In contrast to the heterogeneity seen at the governorate level, the rural-urban resilience capacity gap is low (see Appendix 2, Table A10), which is consistent with findings from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), which suggests that inequality between governorates is markedly higher than inequality between urban and rural areas (UNDP and UNICEF, 2015) HETEROGENEITY BY GENDER OF HOUSEHOLD HEAD FHHs are significantly less resilient than MHHs. Figure 7 below, which depicts the share of the RCI pillars for these two categories, sheds some light on the reasons for this discrepancy. FHHs have lower access to basic services such as water and are on average less educated compared to MHHs. Conversely, assets seem to matter more for FHH resilience than for MHHs. There is evidence that transfers, especially public transfers and subsidies from the National Aid Fund (which are the key drivers of the SSN pillar see Appendix I, Figure A4) partially compensate for this gap. This can be appreciated by looking at the discrepancy in the shares of the SSN pillar in Figure 7. For MHHs, transfers do not contribute to resilience capacity at all, suggesting that they have a relatively low need for safety nets, while for FHHs, transfers are almost as important in explaining resilience capacity as access to basic services. However, the increased role of transfers for FHHs is not enough to completely offset this resilience capacity inequality between HH genders. These findings hold at the national level as well as at the sub-national one: the proportion of FHHs compared to MHHs is extremely similar across each governorate (with MHHs representing the vast majority of households overall) and there are no clusters in the distribution of FHHs in some governorates, which may be driving the results or the heterogeneity at the governorate level. Figure 7. Share of RCI pillars by gender of the household head 100 Components share (%) ABS AST SSN AC 0 Male Female Source: Authors own calculation, based on HEIS (2013)

27 Chapter 3 Main findings; policy and programming implications HETEROGENEITY BY NATIONALITY OF HOUSEHOLD HEAD Households with a Jordanian HH are significantly more resilient than households with a non-jordanian HH. Looking at the share of RCI pillars for these two categories (see Figure 8), the main sources of inequality between Jordanian-headed households and non-jordanian-headed households are assets, which are lower for the latter, and transfers, which conversely are close to zero for the former and account for about 20 percent of the resilience capacity of non-jordanianheaded households. Figure 8. Share of RCI pillar by nationality of the household head 100 Components share (%) ABS AST SSN AC 0 Jordanian HH Non Jordanian HH Source: Authors own calculation, based on HEIS (2013) This picture is very similar to the determinants of the heterogeneity detected for the household head gender gap; it appears transfers are crucial for non-jordanian-headed households to at least partially compensate for the deficiencies in resilience capacity due to gaps in other pillars. Due to representativeness constraints within the data employed for this analysis, analyses of specific nationalities (eg. Syrian) was not possible. However, it is still possible to investigate whether this heterogeneity between Jordanian-headed households and non-jordanian-headed households also persists within each governorate or if it only exists on average across the whole of the country. Figures 9 and 10 show the share of pillars of the RCI between Jordanian-headed households and non-jordanian-headed households in two governorates: firstly, in Amman, the most populated governorate, which is also among the richest and most resilient governorates and arguably less affected by the impacts of the Syrian crisis; secondly, in Mafraq, a predominantly rural northern governorate that is among the least resilient regions and has received one of the highest numbers of refugees.

28 18 RESILIENCE ANALYSIS IN JORDAN, 2013 Figure 9. Share of RCI pillars by nationality of household head in Amman 100 Components share (%) ABS AST SSN AC 0 Jordanian HH Non Jordanian HH Source: Authors own calculation, based on HEIS (2013) Figure 10. Share of RCI pillars by nationality of household head in Mafraq 100 Components share (%) ABS AST SSN AC 0 Jordanian HH Non Jordanian HH Source: Authors own calculation, based on HEIS (2013) It is evident that heterogeneity between Jordanian-headed households and non-jordanianheaded households is the case for both governorates. However, there are a few additional insights that emerge from this comparison that deserve to be mentioned. First, the discrepancy between Jordanian-headed households and non-jordanian-headed households for the ABS pillar, and consequently in access to water, is more evident for these two governorates compared to the national average. Second, while non-jordanian-headed households have fewer assets and rely much more on public transfers for their resilience capacity (consistent with the national picture depicted in Figure 8), there are significant regional disparities between Amman and Mafraq even between households

29 Chapter 3 Main findings; policy and programming implications 19 with the same HH nationality. Indeed, transfers matter much more for non-jordanian-headed households than for Jordanian-headed households both in Amman and in Mafraq, however transfers matter more for Jordanian-headed households in Mafraq than for Jordanian-headed households in Amman (where households receive essentially no transfers). Similarly, transfers play a bigger role in boosting resilience capacity for non-jordanian-headed households in Mafraq, where the SSN pillar accounts for approximately 40 percent of the total RCI for Mafraq, compared to the role of transfers for non-jordanian-headed households in Amman. The same goes for ABS and water services, where both Jordanian and non-jordanian-headed households in Mafraq are worse off than non-jordanian-headed households in Amman. These results suggest that regional differences, rather than differences between the nationalities of household heads, are by far the most important source of resilience capacity inequality in Jordan. POLICY AND PROGRAMMING IMPLICATIONS hh Resilience capacity inequality in Jordan should be addressed by national and international policymakers at multiple levels, with a particular focus on regional heterogeneities, as this is the most important driver of inequality in household resilience capacity. hh It is essential to improve water services and guarantee stable access to water in Ma an and in the least resilient, northern governorates (Mafraq, Balqa, Zarqa) where water demand has increased due to the influx of Syrian refugees (MOPIC, 2017). hh Public transfers should predominantly target these least resilient governorates, as well as the least resilient categories, such as FFHs and non-jordanian-headed households, so as to partially make up for the above-mentioned resilience capacity gaps. hh Specific policies on education for women should address inequality in access to education between genders. hh Investments should target the increase of the productive asset base of households in Jordan, and in particular of non-jordanian-headed households. MAIN FINDING 3 Resilience to food insecurity of households in Jordan is strongly and negatively affected by food shortages, illness of household members and prolonged droughts. Evidence for this finding is presented in Table A3, which shows the results of an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, which suggest that households in Jordan are vulnerable to both idiosyncratic shocks (shocks that only affect individuals or single households), such as food shortages 9 and illness of household members, and to covariate shocks (which affect groups of households or even entire communities) such as droughts, 10 especially if these are prolonged over time. 9 Measuring food shortages takes into account the number of days in a year in which members of the household did not eat food. 10 Droughts impacts are captured using anomalies in the NDVI and ASI. See Annex I, Causal Resilience Analysis Section for technical details.

30 20 RESILIENCE ANALYSIS IN JORDAN, 2013 POLICY AND PROGRAMMING IMPLICATIONS hh In the medium term, UN agencies and international actors should provide technical support in the implementation phase of the JRP , in particular for the programme s food security (Food Security sector, Specific Objective 1) and sanitation (WASH sector, Specific Objective 2) goals. hh From a long-term perspective, comprehensive interventions are needed to increase food stability at the household level by fostering the diversification of income sources at the household level, so as to reduce the vulnerability of households in Jordan not only to internal and environmental shocks, but also to exogenous stressors, such as the severe negative impact of the global food price crisis 11 (ESCWA, 2010), to which the country is heavily exposed given its heavy reliance on food imports. hh As for recurring exogenous shocks such as droughts, FAO and other actors should assist the Jordanian government in the preparation of contingency plans and early warning mechanisms and in the development of adaptation strategies for coping with the impacts of climate change at the household and community levels. 11 The global food price crisis saw dramatic increases in the prices of most food commodities (wheat and rice in particular), and this in turn led to economic instability and social unrest in many countries. Given Jordan s above-mentioned dependency on imports and its consequent exposure in international food markets, the country was particularly affected by the crisis and experienced soaring food prices, which led to protests and demonstrations.

31 FAO \ Riccardo Khalil Mazraawi Gangale

32 FAO \ Sylvain Cherkaoui FAO \ Marco Khalil Mazraawi Letta

33 23 4 METHODOLOGY AND COVERAGE This section introduces the FAO RIMA-II approach employed for estimating household resilience capacity. This section describes the dataset employed in the resilience analysis, based on the HEIS Some data limitations are introduced as well. This report defines resilience as the capacity that ensures stressors and shocks do not have long-lasting development consequences (RM-TWG, 2014). Building on this definition, resilience capacity is estimated through the FAO RIMA-II approach (FAO, 2016). The RIMA-II methodology employs both latent variable statistical techniques for estimating the RCI and the four resilience pillars (ABS, AST, SSN and AC) at the household level and regression models. Annex I provides details on the RIMA-II methodology. The data employed for this RIMA-II analysis were obtained from two main sources the household data are from the 2013 HEIS by the DoS, 12 while data for climatic shocks, namely the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Agricultural Stress Index (ASI) time series are from the FAO Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) Database (FAO, 2017). Food security generally depends on food availability, accessibility, sustainability and utilization (FAO, 2008). In this analysis, two variables have been employed to capture food security: food consumption per capita and the Food Consumption Score (FCS). FCS is a composite indicator that captures both the household variability of the diet (looking at the number of food groups consumed), food frequency (looking at the number of days each food item is consumed out of the last seven days prior to the interview) and the amount of calories consumed during the last seven days prior to the interview (each food group has a different weight depending on its specific caloric intake). A limitation of the data used in this analysis is the non-representativeness of non-jordanianheaded households in the sample. Indeed, this feature prevented a more in-depth analysis of resilience capacity for households belonging to specific nationalities (that are not Jordanian) As already stressed above, the RIMA-II econometric analysis was based on a partial sample of households from the total of the 2013 HEIS survey, but the results of the analysis are representative thanks to the use of sample weights (included in the original dataset shared by the DoS) which have been applied to correct the estimates taking into account the probability of selection into sample. 13 This refers to the nationality of the entire household, based on the assumption that the nationality of the household head usually is representative of the nationality of all households members.

34 24 RESILIENCE ANALYSIS IN JORDAN, 2013 For Jordanian-headed households, the sample is representative. Thus, this only allowed for a broad comparison between Jordanian-headed households and non-jordanian-headed households. There is a forthcoming data collection due to take place this year by the DoS, which will be the first HEIS survey to be representative for all nationalities in Jordan. The main drawback of the analysis is represented by the fact that in using only this household survey, namely a cross-sectional dataset, it is only possible to observe resilience capacity in a single point in time (ie. in 2013). A dynamic approach would be particularly interesting and relevant from a policy point of view in a country such as Jordan, given the pressure on its socioeconomic system over the last few years caused by the huge influx of Syrian refugees fleeing the Syrian conflict. Unfortunately, exploring the dynamics of resilience capacity in Jordan over time is not possible using only this cross-sectional survey. Thus, this investigation of resilience dynamics and the related policy questions about the impact of the Syrian refugee crisis on household resilience in Jordan must be deferred in anticipation of a possible second wave of data from the HEIS surveys becoming available to FAO s RAP team in future.

35 FAO \ Khalil Mazraawi

36 FAO \ Sylvain Cherkaoui FAO \ Marco Khalil Mazraawi Letta

37 27 5 NEXT STEPS This section provides the criteria for prioritizing the recommendations resulting from stakeholder consultations. It includes the needs and time frame for action plans, further consultation, the development of a monitoring and evaluation framework, and the next RIMA-II analysis. This analysis has provided an overview of the factors affecting households resilience capacity for coping with food insecurity in Jordan, and has highlighted significant levels of inequality in resilience capacity at multiple levels. However, being a static exercise based on a 2013 dataset, this analysis should be seen as a promising starting point; it should be followed soon by other analyses investigating the evolution of resilience capacity over time, using further panel set data. It would be particularly useful to focus on the relationship between resilience capacity in Jordan and the huge socio-economic shock represented by the Syrian refugee crisis. Resilience capacity, in fact, is an intrinsically dynamic concept of which this analysis has only provided a snapshot. In the meantime, the JRP offers short-term solutions for the Jordanian government to address the most urgent needs and emergencies caused by the Syrian refugee crisis. However, in order to address the aftermath of the Syrian refugee crisis in the long-term, a quantitative and evidence-based assessment of the determinants of resilience capacity and its dynamic relationship with shocks and stressors is urgently needed. In light of the above-mentioned remarks, it is particularly recommended to: hh reinforce the technical collaboration between FAO and the Jordanian DoS through the support of RFSAN and the FAO Jordan office; hh repeat the RIMA-II econometric analysis on future HEIS datasets, and compare the new findings with the core results emerging from this report; h h incorporate different HEIS surveys in a single unified dataset covering a time span of several years, in order to explore the dynamics of resilience capacity by exploiting either repeated cross-section data sets or longitudinal data, and focus on the causal relationship between the evolution of household resilience capacity in Jordan and the shock represented by the Syrian refugee crisis; and

38 28 RESILIENCE ANALYSIS IN JORDAN, 2013 h h integrate the FAO RIMA-II methodology with the resilience approach of the Jordanian government and other international actors in the country in order to provide a comprehensive framework for studying the determinants of household resilience capacity, and to promote a more quantitative and evidence-based approach to resilience capacity measurement and analysis in Jordan.

39 29 REFERENCES DoS The State of Food Security in Jordan ( ) Analytical Report [online]. Jordan. [Cited 5 December 2017]. documents/ena/wfp pdf ESCWA Food Security and Conflict in the ESCWA Region [online]. New York, USA. [Cited 5 December 2017]. publications/files/e_escwa_ecri_10_1_e.pdf FAO An Introduction to the Basic Concepts of Food Security [online]. [Cited 4 December 2017]. FAO RIMA-II: Resilience Index Measurement and Analysis II [online]. [Cited 4 December 2017]. FAO Data & Tools. In: FAO [online]. [Cited 5 December 2017]. giews/data-tools/en/ MOPIC Jordan Response Plan for the Syria Crisis Executive Summary [online]. Jordan. [Cited 5 December 2017]. static/522c2552e4b0d3c39ccd1e00/t/595689aef5e231fdd546f0ad/ / Executive+Summary+-+%28June+30%29.pdf RM-TWG Resilience Measurement Principles Toward an agenda for measurement design [online]. Rome, Italy. [Cited 4 December 2017]. upload/fsin/docs/resources/fsin_29jan_web_medium%20res.pdf UNDP Table 1: Human Development Index and its components. In: UNDP Human Development Reports [online]. [Cited 5 December 2017]. HDI UNDP & UNICEF Socio-economic inequality in Jordan [online]. In: UNDP Jordan [Cited 4 December 2017] UNRWA Where we work. In: UNRWA [online]. [Cited 5 December 2017]. unrwa.org/where-we-work/jordan WFP WFP Jordan Country Brief [online]. Jordan. [Cited 4 December 2017]. ga=

40 30 RESILIENCE ANALYSIS IN JORDAN, 2013 World Bank Jordan - Country partnership framework for the period FY17-22 [online]. [Cited 4 December 2017] Jordan-Country-partnership-framework-for-the-period-FY17-22 World Bank. 2017a. Population, total. In: The World Bank [online]. [Cited 5 December 2017]. World Bank. 2017b. Urban Population (% of total). In: The World Bank [online]. [Cited 5 December 2017]. World Bank. 2017c. Jordan s Economic Outlook April In: The World Bank [online]. [Cited 4 December 2017]. World Bank. 2017d. Jordan. In: The World Bank [online]. [Cited 5 December 2017]. data.worldbank.org/country/jordan All links were checked on 5 December 2017.

41 31 ANNEX I RESILIENCE MEASUREMENT Resilience is a latent variable that cannot be directly measured. In this study, resilience measurement is carried out in the context of a framework provided by the FAO, under a tool called Resilience Index Measurement and Analysis-II (RIMA-II). This tool estimates resilience following the definition of resilience as provided by the Resilience Measurement Technical Working Group (RM-TWG): 14 the capacity that ensures adverse stressors and shocks do not have long-lasting adverse development consequences. Following the RIMA-II approach (FAO, 2016), the estimation of the RCI is based on a two-stage procedure. 1. First, the resilience pillars are estimated from observed variables through Factor Analysis (FA). 2. Second, the RCI is estimated from the pillars, taking into account the indicators of food security using the Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model. The food security indicators are considered outcomes of resilience. The definitions of each pillar of resilience and the related variables are reported in Table A1 and A2. The choice of the employed variables for each pillar is based on consultations with the RFSAN team, the DoS and other local experts, literature review and previous analyses (FAO, 2016). 14 The RM-TWG has been established under the Food Security Information Network.