Strengthening National Capacities to Manage Water Scarcity and Drought in West Asia and North Africa

Transcription

1 UNITED NATIONS E UN-DESA Distr. LIMITED E/ESCWA/SDPD/20 13/WG.4 20 June 2013 ORIGINAL: ENGLISH Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) Strengthening National Capacities to Manage Water Scarcity and Drought in West Asia and North Africa THE ANALYSIS, MAPPING AND IDENTIFICATION OF CRITICAL GAPS IN PRE- IMPACT AND PREPAREDNESS DROUGHT MANAGEMENT PLANNING IN WATER- SCARCE AND IN-TRANSITIONING-SETTINGS COUNTRIES IN WEST AISA/NORTH AFRICA Note: This document has been reproduced in the form in which it was received, without formal editing.

2 Table of Contents Acronym List Summary of Figures and Tables 1. Executive Summary 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Purpose and objectives 1.3 Need of national action and drought mitigation strategy 1.4 Existing resources, capacities and dissemination systems in the region. 1.5 Assessment of drought management knowledge and practices and identification critical gaps 2. Review standard approaches in drought management 2.1 Standard approaches vulnerability and application 2.2 Impact of standard approaches on drought management effectiveness 3. Effective Drought Monitoring and Early Warning Systems in the region 3.1 Importance and need of early warning systems 3.2 Drought early warning systems in developed countries 3.2 Impact of application of early warning systems in the selected countries 3.3 Assessment of required resources and capacity for drought monitoring 4. Drought risk reduction programs 4.1 Review of international drought management programs (WMO, FAO, UNCCD,etc) 4.2 Drought risk management at multiple levels 4.2 Incorporating community involvement into drought risk management 4.3 State and community level conflict prevention by implementing drought management 4.3 Strategies for natural resource conflict prevention 4.3 Drought risk due to transboundary water issues 4.4 Experience in including micro-finance and index-based insurance in the region 5. Drought management national policy and response 5.1 Review of drought management policies in the region 5.2 Elements of effective drought policies and planning 5.3 Developing national strategies and action plans for drought preparedness 5.3 Interaction between current drought management polices and IWRM plans 5.4 Emergency response that reinforce national drought management policy goals 5.5 Capacity needs assessment of national policy makers in the region Annex A.1 Potential drought mitigation approaches in the West Asia North Africa Region Acknowledgements

3 CDD CDs CIHEAM DIS DMCSEE EDO EM-DAT EPA EROS FAO FAPAR FEWS NET GDP GEF GIS GWP HMNDP IAMZ ICARDA IPCC IUCN IWRM MARH Acronym List Consecutive Dry Days Compact Discs International de Hautes Etudes Argonomiques Mediterraneennes Desertification Information System (DIS) Drought Management Center for South-Eastern Europe European Drought Observatory Emergency Events Database Environmental Protection Authority Earth Resources Observation and Science Food and Agriculture Organization Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation Famine Early Warning Systems Network Gross Domestic Product Global Environment Facility Geographic Information System Global Water Partnership High-Level Meeting on National Drought Policy Mediterranean Agronomic Institute of Zaragoza International Center for Agricultural Research in Dry Areas Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change International Union for Conservation of Nature Integrated Water Resource Management Ministère de l'agriculture, de l'environnement et des Ressources

4 MEDROPLAN MOU NAP NAPA NDMC NDO NDVI NEMEDCA NGO's NOAA NPC PDSI RJGC SA SDC SMAS SPI SWI SWSI TNA TOT UN UN/ISDR UNCCD UN-DESA UNDP UNESCO UN-ESCWA USA USDA USGS WMO Hydrauliques/Ministry of Agriculture, Environment and Water Resources. Mediterranean Drought Preparedness and Mitigation Planning Memoranda of Understanding National Action Plan National Adaptation Program for Action National Drought Mitigation Center National Drought Observatory Normalized Difference Vegetation Index Network on Drought Management for the Near East, Mediterranean and Central Asia Non-Governmental Organizations National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Project Coordinator Palmer Drought Severity Index Royal Jordanian Geographical Center Standard Approaches Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation Maghreb Early Warning System to Drought Standardized Precipitation Index Standardized Water Indexes Surface Water Supply Index Training Needs Assessments Training of Trainers United Nations United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs United Nations Development Programme United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia United States of America United States Department of Agriculture United States Geological Survey World Meteorological Organization Tables and Figures Figures/Tables Title Page Figure 1 Countries Dry land Classification 8 Figure 2 Distribution of population affected by drought between 1990 to Figure 3 Distribution of population affected by natural disaster compared to drought between 1978 to Figure 4 Relation between various indicators 27 Figure 5 Drought impacts in Africa 28 Figure 6 Drought impacts in Asia 28 Figure 7 The European drought monitoring map 38

5 Figure 8 The U.S. drought monitoring map 39 Figure 9 China's drought monitoring map 40 Figure 10 Africa's drought monitoring map 40 Figure 11 Indicative list of Drought Risk Management activities 46 Table 1 Examples on effects of the Drought in some of the North Africa and West Asia countries 11 Table 2 Expert Group Meeting drought management checklist 12 Table Table 4 List of main drought indicators 26 Table 5 Vulnerabilities to drought impacts 30 Table 6 Vulnerable populations to drought 31 Table 7 Vulnerable economic sectors to drought Table 8 Standard Approaches in drought management Table 9 Drought monitoring indicators and drought monitoring means 42 Table 10 4 stages of drought 42 Table 11 Main objectives for natural resource conflict prevention 50 Table 12 Target groups for drought management 60 Table 13 Potential drought mitigation approaches in the West Asia/North Africa region 61

6 1. Executive Summary Drought has become an increasingly frequent and major threat to human security in most of the Arab countries in transition located in arid and semi-arid areas of North Africa and Western Asia. According to the centre of Research and Epidemiology (EM-DAT), the percentage of the population affected by drought alone is 51%, compared to 49% of all other disasters combined. This fact illustrates the severity of the issue of drought. It is also clear that the Middle East and Asia regions re the most affected regions in the world, being that 83% of the population in this area is affected by drought. This project aims to aid in minimizing the risk of drought through analysing, mapping and the identification of critical gaps in pre-impact and preparedness drought management planning, and also to strengthen the capacities of national planners, policy makers and stakeholders in West Asia and North Africa. This will lead to an increased awareness and knowledge of tools and methodologies for national planners, policymakers, institutions, and stakeholders in countries experiencing a transition to develop pre-impact and preparedness drought management plans. The study focuses on the following: - Existing resources and capacities of climate information and dissemination systems in the region - Standard approaches in drought management - Drought monitoring and early warning systems in the region. - Drought impact and severity - Vulnerable populations and economic sectors to drought - Drought risk management strategies - Drought risk reduction programs including micro-finance and index-based insurance in the region - Natural resource conflict prevention at various levels - Drought management, national policy, drought mitigation plans and response - Capacity of national planners and policy makers in West Asia and North Africa The assessment of country drought management status and gaps in knowledge is based on collected information from published studies, direct interviews with decision makers in some countries and collected information from the presentations and country representatives at the EGM meeting in Beirut, Lebanon that took place from 24 to 26 June The assessment results indicate that: - All countries are still employing a reactive approach in addressing drought. It is necessary that these countries start to move towards a proactive drought management approach. This proactive approach is based on short and long term measures and includes monitoring systems for a timely warning of drought conditions. - The countries rely on international organizations such as UN organizations, ICARDA and ACSAD for managing drought issues. Drought is not a part of their strategic planning. - Some countries formed a national committee or commission to be responsible for drought management, action plans, and dissemination systems. The committees include members from ministries, universities, NGOs, and research centers. International organizations,

7 mainly UN organizations and ACSAD, helped most of the countries in the North Africa and West Asia region to develop their own drought management strategy or action plans and provided them with the necessary expertise in this regard. Unfortunately, many of the countries lack the resources to implement the recommended actions. - In all countries except Egypt, the responsibility of drought is given to one ministry, such as ministry of water, environment or agriculture. This is because efficient drought management should be the responsibility of one body or unit. This unit will involve and coordinate ministries, research institutions, NGOs, and other stakeholders. - None of the countries involved have employed standard approaches to drought management. The adoption of standard approaches in drought management will minimize drought risk and impacts and will facilitate the decision making process. - Drought management requires regional cooperation and sharing of drought information. This cooperation remains at a very low level, and in many cases does not exist. In order to reduce the drought risk from transboundary water issues, it is recommended to encourage and strengthen the joint dialogue between riparian countries on all levels, including political and technical. This will provide a common reference and planning framework, and will increase information exchange and coordination between riparian countries. However, work is still needed in several fields, such as: Development of common systems for monitoring and data management. Exchange and share of information related to drought Establishment of joint management plans Resolution of disputes according to international laws and regulations - The countries do not have the capacity to do drought projections. Therefore, it is recommended to utilize the expertise of WMO by using their models for this purpose. - The countries lack an integrated drought management system with the following components: strategy, information systems, monitoring and early warning systems, and mitigation plans. - Monitoring and early warning systems are an integral part of efforts worldwide to improve drought preparedness. Timely and reliable data and information is the cornerstone of effective and proactive drought planning. However, the UN/ISDR (2006) recently completed a global survey and found that early warning systems for drought are more complex than those for other hydro-meteorological hazards and are, consequently, less developed globally. Monitoring drought presents unique challenges because of drought s distinctive characteristics (i.e., low onset, non-structural impacts, and large spatial extent). Therefore, choosing the appropriate indicators of drought and formulating those measurements into an effective early warning system can be challenging. There are several early warning and monitoring systems in more developed countries. The most popular ones are the United States (The U.S. Drought Monitor USDM), European Union (The drought early warning and monitor system developed by the Drought Management Centre for South-eastern Europe (DMCSEE)) and the European Drought Observatory (EDO) by the European Commission for Joint Research, China (The National Climate Center, which is in charge of the monitoring, diagnosing, and predicting the timing of

8 drought), and Africa (The Africa Drought Monitoring System). In the North African and Western Asian region, Morocco provides a good example with its National Drought Observatory (NDO). The NDO was launched in 2001 with the goal of collecting, analyzing, and delivering drought-related information in a timely manner, which includes assessing the frequency and severity of drought. Even though great strides have been made in these efforts in North Africa and West Asia, in general, there are still many challenges to overcome in developing effective drought monitoring systems. Some of the most pressing challenges include: - Enhancing data quality and collection network densities to measure the main drought indicators (rainfall, water level or supply, vegetation cover, livestock, and diseases) - Reducing the cost and increasing the sharing of data, - Making early warning information more accurate and user friendly, - Integrating physical and social drought indicators into systematic and comprehensive monitoring and early warning systems, - Providing support to create and maintain systems. - The countries currently do not conduct an impact assessment to link desertification, and migration and conflict together. - Tunisia and Morocco are the two most advanced countries in drought management, but their management systems still need more improvements. Other countries are either still in the strategy development stage or in the emergency stage (reactive approach) once droughts occurs. - As agreed in the Expert Group Meeting (EGM), five pilot countries will be selected to be covered under this project. A detailed capacity development plan will be developed in the next stage of this project to list the areas to be covered in each country. A realistic national training and capacity building program for drought management needs will be formulated and implemented. A program of resource enhancement encompassing all institutions, organizations, and individuals also will be developed. The capacity development/training programs require 1) The identification of the target group and 2) Capacity needs assessment for each country. Capacity development can take different forms, such as: - Supporting the countries in creating a responsible body on drought management - Providing necessary expertise and resources to develop a drought management system, or parts of the system, such as strategy, standards or monitoring and early warning systems in each of the covered countries. - Developing a standard approach to drought management - Organizing a special training session for policy makers or other groups - Organizing and conducting meetings, conferences and workshops on drought management - Creating manuals and standard procedures

9 1.1 Introduction Drought has become an increasingly frequent and major threat to human security in most of the Arab countries in transition located in arid and semi-arid areas of North Africa and Western Asia, as shown in Figure 1. Rainfall in this region is scarce, and its distribution is highly variable. This was especially apparent in the region during the last three decades. The responses to severe drought by countries in the region are primarily ex-post (reactive) and tend to emphasize emergency relief, take effect after or during drought events and do not incorporate methods that support water conflict prevention. In response, the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN-DESA), in cooperation with the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (UN-ESCWA), along with other United Nations cooperating agencies, are implementing a regional capacity development project entitled, Strengthening National Capacities to Manage Water Scarcity and Drought in West Asia and North Africa. The project also answers a call for urgent action from the Rio +20 Conference on Sustainable Development and the Outcome Document, The Future We Want, to take effective measures in dealing with drought and water scarcity, as well as developing disaster risk reduction and community resilience. The project s timing coincides with a a major UN-system wide effort, in particular the WMO, the UNCCD and the FAO, in organizing the High-Level Meeting on National Drought Policy (HMNDP) during March 2013, and the Final Declaration that encourage countries to develop and implement National Drought Management Policies. The declaration also urges related UN agencies and programmes to assist governments, especially the developing countries, in the development of National Drought Management Policies and their implementation. Figure 1- Dry land Classification

10 1.2 Purpose and Objectives The project s main objective is to analyse, map and identify the critical gaps in pre-impact and preparedness drought management planning and to strengthen the capacities of national planners, policy makers and stakeholders in Western Asian and North African countries. This project will lead to an increased awareness and knowledge of tools and methodologies for national planners, policymakers, institutions, and stakeholders in transition countries in order to develop proactive drought management plans. The study focuses on the following: 1. The existing resources and capacities of climate information and dissemination systems in the region. 2. The existing resources and capacities of drought monitoring and early warning systems in the region. 3. Experience with drought risk reduction programs, including micro-finance and indexbased insurance in the region. 4. Other pre-impact and preparedness measures and programs, including the application of drought resistant agriculture, and water resources conservation and management plans. 5. Current capacity of national planners and policy makers in West Asian and North African countries to prevent conflicts associated with water scarcity and drought. 1.3 Need for National Action and Drought Mitigation Strategy The Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters has an emergency events database (EM-DAT) 1, which includes statistics of the number of people killed or affected by natural disasters around the world. According to the published figures 2 and 3, the distribution of the population affected by drought alone is 51%, compared to 49% of all other disasters combined. This fact illustrates the severity of the issue of drought. It is also clear that the Middle Eastern and Asian regions are the most affected regions in the world, being that 83% of the population in these areas is affected by drought. Figure 2 - Distribution of population affected by drought between 1990 to Emergency Management Database (EM-DAT) (2008) The OFDA/CRED International Database, Universite Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium ( 2 Below, R., E. Grover-Kopec, and M. Dilley (2007) Documenting drought-related disaster: A global reassessment. The Journal of Environment and Development, 19(3):

11 Figure 3- Distribution of population affected by natural disaster compared to drought between 1978 to In addition, the database reported that in 1983, an especially severe drought in Sudan killed an estimated 150,000 people and affected another 8.4 million people over the next several years. 8.6 million people were again affected in Sudan when they were struck by drought in More recently, the drought from 1998 to 2001 was reported to be the worst in 50 years, affecting millions of people across the Middle East. According to EM-DAT, in 1999, nearly 40 million people were affected, including 37 million in Iran and another 3 million in Morocco, Jordan, Pakistan, and Syria. By 2000, the number had grown to nearly 50 million people as drought expanded across much of the Near East from Morocco to Tajikistan. The drought continued unabated through 2001 before beginning to lessen in most areas by A drought management strategy is needed because it directly impacts a great number of humans, ecosystems, and animal habitats. Drought often results in a shortage in water resources, crop failures, loss in livestock, an increase in diseases, a reduction in hydropower, increased soil erosion, an increase in fires, and an increase in social stress. All this leads to human losses, mass migration, reduced security, and potential violent conflict. Therefore, there is a great need to develop and implement drought management strategies and action plans in countries affected by drought in order to increase societal and environmental resiliency and to enhance drought response and recovery capabilities. Clear examples of the effects of drought various countries in the Middle East are listed below. 3 Ibid.

12 Region West Asia North Africa Country Jordan 180,000 farmers and herders affected, and food insecurity for 4.75 million people; 1% of cereals and 40% of red meat and milk harvested Lebanon Syria Yemen Egypt Sudan Libya Tunisia Algeria Morocco 47,000 nomadic households forced to liquidate their livestock assets Urban water shortages and hydropower reductions Sudan was struck by several droughts which resulted in famine across many parts and millions of people were affected. Agricultural losses and US$46 million in intervention actions (i.e., livestock vaccinations and nutrition products, subsidizing forage product prices, and attribution of yearly credit for farmers) 1 million hectares of cropland affected, resulting in 5 million tons of wheat imports in 2001 (US$500 million in total cereal imports) Table 1- Examples on Effects of the Drought in some of the North Africa and West Asia countries Drought action plans can help decision makers to identify sectors that are vulnerable to drought, investigate management options before a crisis, and increase readiness for the implementation of the most appropriate and cost-effective strategies available. This will foster a more informed decision-making process and the development of an efficient drought management program. In addition, drought management strategies and action plans can create opportunities for a broad range of stakeholders to participate in the decision-making process, which can foster capacity building, conflict resolution, and collaborative relationships. 1.4 Existing Resources, Capacities and Dissemination Systems in the Region. Most countries formed a national committee or commission to be responsible for drought management, action plans and dissemination systems. The committees include members from ministries, universities, NGOs and research centres. International organizations, mainly FAO, ESCWA, ICARDA and UNDP helped countries in North Africa and West Asia to develop their own drought management plans and provided them with expertise. Unfortunately, many of these countries lack the resources to implement the recommended action plans. In the EGM meeting a checklist form was distributed to the country representatives to collect information on the drought management status in each country. The summary of collected information is listed in the table below.

13 Region Country Drought Responsibility which Organization Drought Strategy Drought Action Plan Drought Standards Drought Monitroing & Early Warning System Drought Mitigation Plan IWRM Transboundary Water Jordan Ministry of Environment exist exist none none none exist surface water with Syria and Palestine, GW with SA West Asia Lebanon Ministry of Agriculture Ministry of Energy & Water none none none projects projects none surface and GW with Syria and Palestine Syria Yemen Ministry of Water and Environment none none none projects exist exist GW with SA and Oman Egypt Disasters Unit/Prime Minster Office none project basis none none project basis exist Nile basin/gw with Libya Sudan Ministry of Agriculture none none none none none exist Nile basin/gw with Libya Libya Ministry of Water Resources none exist none none none exist OSS/ GW with Sudan North Africa Tunisia Prime Minster & Ministry of Agriculture exist none exist exist exist exist SW with Algeria and OSS with Libya Algeria Ministry of Environment none exist none none exist but not active exist OSS with Tunis and Morocco Morocco Table 2- Expert Group Meeting drought management checklist

14 1.5 Assessment of Drought Management Knowledge and Practices and Identification of Critical Gaps The response to drought, drought management and practices varies between countries. Some countries are well advanced and have a drought management system, while others still lack drought management strategy or policy. On the regional level, there are several initiatives by UN organizations, ICARDA and ACSAD to develop a regional strategy for drought management and to link it to climate change risk strategy. Below is an assessment of the drought management knowledge and practices in some of the countries (Jordan, Syria, Yemen, Egypt, Tunisia, and Morocco) under this study. The collected information on countries drought management status from literature and EGM meeting are compiled and summarised in the table at the end of this section. 1- Jordan Jordan is one of the more vulnerable countries to drought. This is due to a reliance on groundwater and generated runoff from rainfall as the main sources of water supply. Some of the drought indicators in Jordan include: - Water supply shortages in the summer - Dried springs (decreased discharges in 850 springs) - Decrease of groundwater levels by 1 m/year on average over the last 30 years. - Decrease in the amount runoff - Change in agricultural patterns in the Jordan Valley and highlands due to drop in rainfall - Increase of imported fruits and vegetables from Syria, Lebanon, and Egypt - Jordan's southern highlands represent the country s poorest mainly farmers and women where communities are severely affected by cumulative impacts from extensive weather related disasters, such as flash flood and drought 4 The government of Jordan requested the FAO s technical assistance to help the country undertake a project to better understand drought and its management in Jordan, and to develop a framework for carrying out a national drought planning process. This project was authorized by the FAO in May 2005 under its Technical Cooperation Programme. One of the goals of the project was to create a National Steering Committee of relevant stakeholders to help oversee and lead the project. A National Project Coordinator (NPC) from the Ministry of Agriculture was first appointed to lead the project and assist in recruiting committee members. The NPC, a FAO representative, and an international drought consultant held meetings with as many Jordanian ministries, departments, and NGOs as time would permit. The members of the National Steering Committee included: Secretary General, Ministry of Agriculture, Chairman Hashemite University National Centre for Agricultural Research and Technology Transfer Meteorology Department Ministry of Water and Irrigation Ministry of Interior Ministry of Environment Royal Jordanian Geographic Centre 4 Jordan Rural Poverty Fact Sheet - International Fund for Agricultural Development, 2010

15 Jordanian Society for Desertification Control and Badia Development Directorate of Land and Water, Ministry of Agriculture Directorate of Projects, Ministry of Agriculture FAO Technical Cooperation Programme National Project Coordinator The Ministry of Environment then took the lead and created policies in cooperation with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the Global Environment Facility, a financial mechanism for United Nations (UN) conventions on environment. The policies also suggest amendments to Jordan's environmental protection laws to strengthen its compliance with three UN conventions on biodiversity, climate change and desertification. The Ministry of Environment formed a new committee to be responsible for the development of a national strategy for drought. The committee was led by the Ministry of Environment and reported to the Minster of Environment. This committee is comprised of 20 members from governmental ministries and institutions, universities, and NGOs. The full list of members is listed in Annex 1. The committee meets every three months to discuss a work agenda developed by the Ministry of Environment. The consultant met with some of the members from the national committee (listed in the index) as well as UNDP and FAO, and IUCN organizations to evaluate their programs on drought management in Jordan. The ministry of environment is working on implementation of the three Rio conventions: - National Strategy and Action Plan to Compact Desertification, under update 5 - National Policy on Climate Change, National Strategy on Biodiversity Under the desertification component, the immediate obligation from the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) is to prepare a national action plan to combat desertification. With support from UNDP, The Ministry of Environment developed a national strategy and action plan to combat desertification in The ministry is planning to update this strategy in the nearest future. The NAP includes six major programmes that are mainly project-based. However, these programs and the proposed projects provide a framework for an action plan to combat desertification. Each program has several projects with justification, activity, implementing agencies and initial budget. The proposed programs are: - Desertification information system (DIS), - Drought prediction and Desertification control, - Capacity building and institutional development, - Restoration of degraded ecosystems of rangelands and forests, - Watershed management, and 5 National Strategy and Action Plan to Combat Desertification, Ministry of Environment/UNDP, Jordan's Second National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), UNDP, gef, The National Climate Change Policy of the Hashemite Kingdome of Jordan, UNDP, gef,

16 - Human, social and economic development initiatives. The Ministry of Agriculture, in cooperation with the FAO, implemented a project entitled, Drought mitigation strategy in Jordan. This project ended in mid A national strategy and action plan for drought management was prepared and final recommendations and conclusions were discussed in a national workshop. Recommendations included: 1. Establishing a high committee headed by the Prime Minister and membership of several ministries and institutions such as Royal Jordanian Geographical Center (RJGC), Meteorological Department, Research Centers, Governmental and NGOs. 2. Formulation of the following sub-committees: technical, follow-up and evaluation of risk committees with membership of the mentioned institutions to supervise whatever effects drought occurrence, establishing standards for declaring drought and writing reports for the high committee. 3. Training programs on drought issues is vital for the sustainability of the work. It is also important to have an independent budget and train local communities so that they can be involved in decision-making and drought mitigation. 4. Signing of MOU s within different institutions in order to clarify duties and responsibilities of each party. 5. Training of Trainers (TOT) in order to clarify the concepts and the vision of drought issues The following gaps were identified in Jordan drought management system: - Independent body or unit responsible for drought management - Standard management approach - Regional sharing of drought information - Drought projection - The Drought National Action Plan (NAP) is still a new document that requires an effective awareness campaign and a resource mobilization strategy. It can be considered as a framework for action at the country level. A precise reference was made to it in the National Agenda - The link between desertification and poverty is missing - Monitoring and early warning or monitoring systems - Mitigation plan - Impact assessment (link between desertification, and migration and conflicts). - The Steering committee meets every 3 months. Members are absent frequently and the meeting s agenda items are not met within a timely fashion - The involved ministries and organizations do not include the actions stated in the NAP in their plans or projects. In each ministry, there is no unit specialized and responsible for drought issues, rather the responsibilities are scattered between various sections - The ministry of environment s role is limited to calling meetings and updating strategies and policies concerning drought. There is a need to expand this role in order to establish coordinate between various ministries so that the drought action plans are included in the ministries plans and projects 7 National Strategy and Action Plan to Combat Desertification, UNDP, 2006.

17 - The members in the steering committee changes frequently, which affects the follow up and understanding of the agreed upon issues - The Meteorological department is not a member of the steering committee 2- Syria Syria is a semi-arid country that has suffered from several drought events. The drought was the worst in four decades, seriously affecting crop and livestock production in the Syria, which, in turn, had serious repercussions on the food security of a large segment of the population as incomes fell sharply, particularly among the rural small farmers and herders. 8 9 For example, in 1999, drought played a role in forcing approximately 47,000 nomadic households (329,000 people) to liquidate their livestock assets, which was a primary source of long-term income. 10 Therefore, many families in the rangelands eventually required food aid during the drought years. 11 In addition, according to ESCWA, urban populations, particularly in the southern part of the Syria, suffer from water shortages due to decreases in the Euphrates River. This resulted in dry of irrigation canals and drop in hydro-powered generation. 12 Eventually, economic growth was affected as agricultural production fell sharply, reducing the contribution of agricultural income to GDP. Although the government made extensive efforts to reduce the effects of the drought, especially on herders, by providing extra resources, feed rations, water and veterinary supplies, they were inadequate given the drought s scale and severity and the country s limited resources. Between 2004 and 2006, FAO worked with the government of Syria to develop an effective early warning system for drought in the Syrian rangelands. 13 The project had the following objectives: training national staff in the collection, analysis, interpretation, and implementation of data in the Syrian Ministry of Agriculture and Agrarian Reform, and strengthening institutional capacity in drought early warning systems, with particular emphasis on pastoralists and agro-pastoralists of the Syrian Steppe and its margins. The Syrian project was completed in As a result, an early warning system office and a steering committee were organized; a series of drought indicators were identified. The early warning systems were implemented for the collection, organization, and processing of drought monitoring data (physical and social data); monthly drought bulletins have been 8 Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations (2004a) Syrian Arab Republic: Capacity Building in Drought Early Warning System for the Syrian Rangelands. Syrian Project Document, TCP/SYR/3002 (T), May. 9 Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) (2005) ESCWA Water Development Report 1: Vulnerability of the Region to Socio-Economic Drought, United Nations: New York. 10 De Pauw, E. (2005) Chapter 16: Monitoring Agricultural Drought in the Near East, In: V.K. Boken, A. P. Cracknell, and R.L. Heathcote, eds., Monitoring and Predicting Agricultural Drought, Oxford University Press: New York 11 Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations (2004a) Syrian Arab Republic: Capacity Building in Drought Early Warning System for the Syrian Rangelands. Syrian Project Document, TCP/SYR/3002 (T), May. 12 Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) (2005) ESCWA Water Development Report 1: Vulnerability of the Region to Socio-Economic Drought, United Nations: New York. 13 Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations (2007a) Capacity Building for a Drought Early Warning System in the Syrian Rangelands. Terminal Statement prepared for the 14 Government of Syria by The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Cairo, Egypt, TCP/SYR/3002

18 produced regularly since 2005 in both English and Arabic; and the technical capacity to operate a drought warning system in Syria was successfully developed. The main gaps in Syrian drought management can be summarised as follows: - Independent body or unit responsible on drought management - Standard management approach - Regional sharing on drought information - Weak coordination between various ministries and organizations - Mitigation plans are mainly for emergency and not updated regularly - Monitoring and early warning system 3- Yemen Yemen is highly vulnerable to drought. This is a serious concern as Yemen's economy largely depends on its rural natural resources. According to the Yemen Environment Authority, more than 75% of the population is rural-based and engages in farming and pastoralism, and is hence highly reliant on favourable climatic conditions for their livelihoods. Recently, Yemen suffered from increased drought frequency, increased temperatures, and changes in precipitation patterns leading to degradation of agricultural lands, soils and terraces. For example, the drought had a severe impact on the Yemeni economy and population. As agricultural production fell sharply, economic growth was affected by the reduction of agricultural income s contribution to GDP. The agricultural sector registered significant yield losses, resulting in widespread farm losses and increased poverty in rural areas. The drought highlighted the vital role that adequate rainfall and water resources play in keeping Yemen s economy profitable and sustainable, as Yemen has no perennial rivers, and depends on rainfall from water run-off and groundwater recharge. The drought had serious repercussions on the food security of a large segment of the population. According to the World Bank, a sizeable portion of the population remains economically vulnerable to falling into poverty due to drought, as the Yemeni agricultural sector provides employment for 58% of the population. The responsibility of drought and climate change issues in Yemen belongs to the Ministry of Water and Environment and the Environment Protection Authority (EPA). Some of the international organizations such as UNDP, GEF, and IUCN have helped Yemen in developing a strategy on climate change and biodiversity. However, there are still no sustainable land management strategies to combat desertification and land degradation. The primary goal of the Yemen National Adoption Program of Action (NAPA) is to identify priority measures to adapt to drought variability, and translate them into project based activities that can address Yemen s urgent needs for adapting to the adverse impacts of drought. Some of the key elements of the process include adequate stakeholder representation in all phases of the process. 14 The main weaknesses in Yemen related to drought management are as follows: - Independent body or unit responsible on drought management - Standard management approach - Regional sharing on drought information - Weak coordination between various ministries and organizations - Mitigation plans are mainly for emergency and not updated regularly - Monitoring and early warning system 14 Yemen National Adaptation Program of Action, Republic of Yemen Environment Protection Authority, 2009

19 4- Egypt The responsibility of drought management is under the Disasters Risk Unit at the Office of the Prime Minster. Recently, the unit engaged in projects with UN organizations in climate change risk management. This program is currently ongoing with the participation of six UN agencies (FAO, UNDP/UNRC, UNESCO, IFDA, UNEP, and UNIDO) and six ministries/national institutions (Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of International Cooperation, Cabinet of Ministers, Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency, Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation, and Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation). This program aims at helping Egypt align its climate risk management to the predicted threats the country faces. The Joint Program will include both mitigation and adaptation activities Meanwhile, IFAD and FAO will work jointly in the development of stress tolerant crops, identification of optimal cropping pattern, optimization of the use of shrinking water resources and information dissemination in response to the climate change risks. The expected outputs include: - Enhanced capacity to adapt to climate change - Adaptation strategies and practices integrated into climate-sensitive development policies, plans and programs - Pilot measures implemented and scaled up in support of adaptation Another main project is, Monitoring of Climate Change Risk Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Groundwater and Agriculture in the Nile Delta. The main objective of the project is to develop a decision support tool for predicting and mitigating likely impacts of climate change on agricultural production and the environment along the coastal areas of the Nile Delta. The outputs are: - Climate change impact monitoring (for soil and groundwater) sites identified, observation wells installed and geo-referenced - Likely impacts of SLR on groundwater table, and soil and groundwater - Action-oriented information systems for predicting likely impacts and adaptation measures of climate change along the coastal areas of the Nile Delta. The main gaps in Egyptian drought management can be summarised as follows: - Independent body or unit responsible on drought management - Standard management approach - Regional sharing on drought information - Weak coordination between various ministries and organizations - Mitigation plans are mainly for emergency and not updated regularly - Monitoring and early warning system As shown above Egypt lacks national drought management strategy and action plan, and all drought management actions are on project basis. Egypt requires assistance in developing a drought management system, drought projection, development of monitoring and early warning systems and adoption of standard approaches to drought management. 5- Tunisia In Tunisia, the Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Environment are responsible for drought issues. There has been a drought management system to reduce the effects of the drought since The system was adopted when drought events occurred during , and During 1999, Tunisia published the first guideline on drought management

20 entitled Guide Pratique de la Gestion de la Sécheresse en Tunisie. 15 The guideline was elaborated by referring to the drought management system and by analysing the data and information recorded during the drought periods of and This guideline consists of methodological approaches, identification of principal drought indices, description of drought preparedness and management processes, and maps of intervening parties. The drought management system in Tunisia has 3 major successive steps: 1. Drought Announcement: Referring to meteorological, hydrological and agricultural indicators as observed in the different regions affected by drought and transmitted by the agricultural, economic, and hydrologic districts relevant to the Ministry of Agriculture, Environment and Water Resources (MARH). A drought announcement is established by means of a circumstance memorandum. 2. Warning: This announcement, qualified as warning note, is transmitted to the MARH Minister, who proposes a scheduled operations plan to the National Commission (committee), which is composed of decision makers and beneficiaries. 3. Action implementation: The National Commission is in charge of supervision of the execution of all the operation actions, in strong collaboration with the regional and specialized committees. The National Commission also supervises all operations when the drought is over. According to the published studies and information on the Tunisian drought management system, the strengths and weaknesses of Tunisia drought management system can be summarised as follows: Strengths - A high Presidential interest and support is devoted to the drought mitigation system in Tunisia. - The approach based on three drought management phases (before, during and after drought), is a very important strategy and relevant to the basic elements of drought management theory. - Capital productive sharing and preservation. - Sustainability of farmers' incomes. - Integrated and optimized water resources management in Tunisia, especially during drought, depending on its intensity and duration. - Water saving as a national policy Weaknesses - Independent body or unit responsible for drought management - Standard management approach - Regional sharing on drought information - Drought projection - The financial incidences are supported by the State budget because of the absence of insurance systems linked to drought, and private sector contribution is limited. - Updating the drought mitigation from 2003, which is based on simple note-taking and observation findings, without any wide-spreading evaluation study. The latter would be realized by an in-process study The climatic changes and their impacts on the agricultural sector and the ecosystems. 15 Louati, M.H., Khanfir, R., Alouini, A., El Echi, M.L., Frigui, H.L. and Marzouk, A. (1999). Guide pratique de gestion de la sécheresse en Tunisie: Approche méthodologique. Ministère de l'agriculture de Tunisie, 94 pp.

21 - The deficiency in the relations between the different institutions that provide information and data about water, which should be resolved by the establishment of the Unified Water Resources National Information System in the near future. 6- Morocco Morocco suffered from several droughts that sharply affected the production of basic crops such as cereal. For example, as a result of drought in 2001, approximately 1 million ha of cropland was affected, which caused the country to import approximately 5 million tons of wheat and allocate more than $500 million for their cereal imports. 16 In addition, drought conditions in Morocco can lead to food shortages and rural malnutrition, herds perishing or being slaughtered for lack of forage, farmers temporarily abandoning their land and flocking to the cities, and increased wind erosion and desertification. 17 At the national level, the government of Morocco established a National Drought Observatory (NDO) in 2001 with the goal of collecting, analysing, and delivering drought-related information, which includes assessing the frequency, severity, and extent of droughts, as well as their various effects on crops, livestock, the environment, and living conditions of rural populations using objective, measurable scientific criteria. The NDO was placed within the Institute Agronomique et Veterinaire Hassan II, an academic institution, to facilitate interdisciplinary collaboration and give the centre a degree of neutrality in regard to policy decisions. Over time, the mandate of the NDO has broadened into playing a central role in drought planning activities in the country. The main gaps in Morocco s drought management systems can be summarised as follows: - Independent body or unit responsible on drought management - Standard management approach - Regional sharing on drought information - Drought projection - Weak coordination between various ministries and organizations - In each ministry, there is no unit specialized and responsible on drought issues, rather the responsibilities are scattered between various sections. - Mitigation plans are mainly for emergency and not updated regularly - Monitoring early warning system 16 Description of drought management actions [Part 1. Components of drought planning Methodological component] CIHEAM, Swearingen, W.D., and A. Bencherifa (2000) Chapter 21: An Assessment of the Drought Hazard in Morocco, In D. A. Wilhite, ed., Drought: Volume I A Global Assessment, Routledge: New York.

22 Region Country Responsible Organization Drought Management Gaps Assessment West Asia Jordan Ministry of Environment leading the National Steering Committee from ministries, NGO's, and Universities. FAO and UNDP helped the country to develop drought management strategy and action plan in 2006.The ministry of environment is working on updating the drought strategy in nearest future. Jordan needs help in the following areas: - Drought projection - Adoption of standard approach - Drought monitoring and early warning systems - Preparedness and mitigation actions - Impact assessment UNDP, and GEF funded a project to identify priority research topics in combating desertification, study is ready in Lebanon Ministry of Agriculture Ministry of Energy and Water Currently, there is no national drought management strategy. There are only drought management actions on a project basis. ACSAD will help in developing drought strategy. Lebanon needs help in the following areas: - Drought projection - National drought strategy and action plan - Adoption of standard approach - Drought monitoring and early warning systems - Preparedness and mitigation action - Emergency response and recovery measures - Impact assessment Syria Ministry of Agriculture There is no national drought strategy, drought actions on project basis. Since 2009, SDC supported the FAO project to reduce the vulnerability to drought in Syria through extended outreach of the national drought early warning system. The System focuses on the low rainfall 18 Policy Oriented National Priority Research Topics in Climate Change, Biodiversity, and Combating Desertification, UNDP, gef ( )

23 zones of the Badia and the marginal area. Monthly drought bulletins have been produced regularly since 2005 in both English and Arabic. Syria needs help in the following areas: - Drought projection - National drought strategy and action plan - Adoption of standard approach - Drought monitoring and early warning systems - Preparedness and mitigation action - Emergency response and recovery measures - Impact assessment Yemen Ministry of Water and Environment There are strategies for biodiversity and for Climate Change but not for combating desertification. There are drought mitigation plan and drought management actions on project basis. Yemen needs help in the following areas: - Drought projection - National drought strategy and action plan - Adoption of standard approach - Drought monitoring and early warning systems - Preparedness and mitigation action - Emergency response and recovery measures - Impact assessment North Africa Egypt Disaster Unit at Prime Minster Office The UN organizations helped in climate change risk management and impact assessment on agriculture in the Delta area. There is no national strategy for drought management and action planning. Drought management actions are on a local scale and on a project basis. ACSAD is planning to help in developing strategy. Egypt needs help in the following areas: - Drought projection - National drought strategy and action plan - Adoption of standard approach

24 - Drought monitoring and early warning systems - Preparedness and mitigation action - Emergency response and recovery measures - Impact assessment Sudan Ministry of Agriculture ACSAD and FAO are helping in climate change risk management and impact on agriculture. There is no national strategy for a drought management and action plan. Drought management actions are on a local scale and on a project basis. Sudan needs help in the following areas: - Drought projection - National drought strategy and action plan - Adoption of standard approach - Drought monitoring and early warning systems - Preparedness and mitigation action - Emergency response and recovery measures - Impact assessment Libya Ministry of Water Resources The ACSAD and FAO are helping in climate change risk management and impact on agriculture. There is no national strategy for drought management and action plan. Drought management actions are on local scale and on project basis. Libya needs help in the following areas: - Drought projection - National drought strategy and action plan - Adoption of standard approach - Drought monitoring and early warning systems - Preparedness and mitigation action - Emergency response and recovery measures - Impact assessment Tunisia Prime Minster Office, Ministry of Environment and Ministry of Agriculture leading the There is drought management and action plan since There is management system, which include database, and dissemination system. Tunisia needs help in the following areas:

25 National Commission from ministries, NGO's, and Universities, - Drought projection - Adoption of standard approach - Impact Assessment There are also regional commissions in all 24 governorates. Algeria Ministry of Environment There is drought action plan. Algeria needs help in the following areas: - Drought projection - National drought strategy and action plan - Adoption of standard approach - Drought monitoring and early warning systems - Preparedness and mitigation action - Emergency response and recovery measures - Impact assessment Morocco National Drought Observatory (NDO) There is drought strategy, action plan, and information and dissemination system. Morocco needs help in the following areas: - Drought projection - Adoption of standard approach - Drought monitoring and early warning systems - Preparedness and mitigation action - Emergency response and recovery measures - Impact assessment Table 3- Gaps in drought management by country

26 2. Vulnerability to Drought and Review of Standard Approaches in Drought Management Specific definitions of drought may vary across sectors and regions. Drought generally originates from a deficiency of precipitation over an extended period of time, resulting in a water shortage for some activity, group, or environmental sector. 19 More specifically, Wilhite and Glantz describe four types of droughts: 20 Meteorological drought: refers to a deficiency of precipitation, as compared to average conditions, over an extended period of time. Agricultural drought: is defined by a reduction in soil moisture availability below the optimal level required by a crop during each different growth stage, resulting in impaired growth and reduced yields. Hydrological drought: results when precipitation deficiencies begin to reduce the availability of natural and artificial surface and subsurface water resources. It occurs when there is a substantial deficit in surface runoff below normal conditions or when there is a depletion of ground water recharge. Socioeconomic drought: occurs when human activities are affected by reduced precipitation and related water availability. This form of drought associates human activities with elements of meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought. The following main indicators reflect impacts from the three types of drought. Figure 4 shows the relation between various indicators and table 3 shows the drought indicators: Shortage in Water Resources Increase in Diseases Agricultural Losses Livestock Losses Drop in Hydropower Soil Erosion Drop in income Stress on governments budgets Society Instability Table 4: List of main drought indicators 19Knutson, C., M. Hayes, and T. Phillips (1998) How to Reduce Drought Risk. Preparedness and Mitigation Working Group of the Western Drought Coordination Council, Lincoln, Nebraska ( 20Wilhite, D. A. and M. H. Glantz Understanding the drought phenomenon: The role of definitions. Water International 10:

27 2.1 Drought Impacts and Severity Figure 4 - Relation between various indicators The impacts of drought are manifold and have social, environmental, and economic consequences. Africa and Asia tend to have similar impacts, but the impacts that occur in Africa tend to be more severe. The figures below show the areas in which each continent is most severely impacted by drought and also show the comparison of impacts between Africa and Asia.

28 Figure 5- Drought impacts in Africa Figure 6- Drought impacts in Asia Based on information from the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), the major areas of drought impact in African and Asian regions are a decrease in crop yields, and thus a decline in food security; shortages in water suitable for human use; declining health; economic losses; a decrease in livestock; famine; migration and displacement; a decrease in water available for business and industry (e.g., hydropower); increases in community and national level conflicts and crimes, including violence against women in the household; fires; and forced sale

29 of land and household assets. 21 The decrease in water for human use refers to the water needed for such things as cooking, drinking, and cleaning and the decline in human health can occur because of unsafe drinking water and malnutrition. The top four areas most affect by drought impacts in Africa are decreases in water for human use, increases in food insecurity given the decline in crop yields, a decline in human health, and livestock losses. Similarly, Asia is most negatively affected by the decreases of water for human use and decreases in crop yields and food security, but is more greatly impacted in the economic sector and water use for business and industry compared to Africa. Given this information, when developing a drought risk management plan it is important to address all areas of drought impact, but to focus on areas of food insecurity, decline in crop yields and livestock, and the amount of water available for human use. By focusing on these areas, other impacted areas such as the economy and civil unrest should consequently be improved given the interconnectivity of these sectors. 2.2 Vulnerability to Drought Impacts A number of factors can contribute to a region s vulnerability to drought impacts. Many of these vulnerabilities stem from problems associated with poverty. There are four types of drought: meteorological, agricultural, socioeconomic and hydrological. When there is a meteorological drought, or lack of water availability, there needs to be enough economic security for communities to withstand agricultural, socioeconomic and hydrological droughts as well. In many circumstances, poor health, such as HIV and AIDS, limits household productivity and leads to vulnerability to disasters such as drought. Other factors that increase a community s vulnerability to drought in Asia and Africa include social inequalities; damaging cultural practices such as overgrazing; environmental degradation; poor governance systems; climate change; conflict; population increases causing stress on available natural resources; ineffective water resources management; societal inequalities and economic divides; and lack of access to information by communities concerning how to successfully combat drought. Out of these contributing causes of drought impact, both Africa and Asia rank environmental degradation, poor governance systems, and ineffective water resource management as the highest causes of vulnerability. Land degradation, mainly due to human activities, has become a problem all over the world, however in the arid areas of North Africa and West Asia, the issue is even more prominent. Overgrazing and unsustainable practices have allowed soil surfaces to become exposed to wind and water erosion, sand movement, salinization of irrigated lands, and waterlogging. 22 Wind erosion is most likely a product of the decrease in or complete lack of steppe and perennials on the landscape. 23 Water erosion, on the other hand, typically occurs near rivers that have been deeply incised or in areas that were cultivated after experiencing marginal rainfall. Examples of these causes of erosion in Syria are the Orontes near Hama and the regions south of Lake Jabboul, respectively. In many cases overgrazing of rangelands is permanent, resulting in soil that can no longer produce crops and vegetation. Land degradation also has a direct negative effect on groundwater-irrigated systems and results in aquifer depletion and contamination. 24 This degradation of land puts extra pressure current water resources as water from reserves and other sources must be allocated accordingly to mitigate this problem. 21 United Nations Development Programme (2012). Drought Risk Management: Practitioner s Perspectives from Africa and Asia. 22 Oweis, T., and Hachum, A. Improving Water Productivity in the Dry Areas of West Asia and North Africa. CAB International (2003) Pg 179. Retrieved from 23 CGIAR CRP1.1 North Africa and West Asia, Regional Inception Workshop, Draft Report Pg CGIAR (2003) CRP1.1 North Africa and West Asia, Regional Inception Workshop, Draft Report Pg. 28

30 Climate change and population increases also rank as high causes of vulnerability to drought in these regions. Oweis and Hachum assert that the annual population increase is approximately 3.6%. At this rate, the population is projected to more than double by the year 2020, approaching 930 million people. 25 According to Black, Brayshaw and Rambeau, the Middle East is facing climate change due to anthropogenic changes, which in turn is creating a major water shortage and lack of precipitation. This lack of precipitation has a significant negative impact on society in the Middle East. 26 In their study, Black and her colleagues create a climate model which suggests a decreased winter rainfall in southern Europe and the Middle East because of an anticipated pole ward shift in the North Atlantic storm. 27 According to a study by UNDP, government officials in Africa and Asia rank climate change as the primary root cause to drought impacts. Climate change is a global issue and cannot be attributed to any one country. This being said, it is crucial that drought risk management plans address making changes in human behaviour that are sustainable and environmentally friendly. UNDP also asserts that it is a common held belief that drought is inevitable, when this may in fact not be the case. By focusing on the root causes of drought, although complex, the West Asia and North Africa region, as well as other countries around the world, can adopt a more proactive approach to drought mitigation. The table below summarizes the areas in which the Africa and Asia region is most vulnerable to drought impacts: Vulnerabilities to Drought Impacts Environmental degradation Ineffective water resource management Poor governance Climate change Damaging cultural practices Conflict Poor health Population increases Social inequalities and economic divides Lack of access to information by communities concerning how to successfully combat drought Table 5- Vulnerabilities to drought impacts 2.2 Barriers in Combating Vulnerabilities to Drought Impacts 1. Lack of political will It is important to understand not only the factors that create drought risk, but the factors that are prohibiting the mitigation of these drought impacts. A major barrier in Africa and Asia in addressing the causes of drought impacts is a lack of political will. This lack of political will is often due to the complex nature of drought and the many aspects that need to be considered when addressing it. It also sometimes takes a while for the effects of drought to become apparent. Furthermore, the severity of the issue of drought often evolves very gradually. The 25 Oweis, T. & Hachum, A (2003). Improving Water Productivity in the Dry Areas of West Asia and North Africa. Water Productivity in Agriculture: Limits and Opportunities for Improvement. Pg Black, E., Brayshaw, D.J., Rambeau, C.M (2010). Past, present and future precipitation in the Middle East: insights from models and observations. Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 27 Ibid.

31 combination of these factors often results in a lack of political will to address the issues associated with drought. Another concern is that there is no direct relationship between the timely and precise prediction of drought through scientific data and the political will to act, implement mitigation, and provide resources for loss prevention. At times governments will allocate food aid to community members in order to increase governmental popularity, even when there is no apparent threat of drought. This calls into question whether or not drought resources are sometimes being used as a means to bolster political standing instead of providing relief to the public. 2. Other priorities Along the same lines as the lack of political will are the other priorities that take precedence over drought related issues. Many times suitable interventions are not implemented because other political issues are at the forefront of national attention. 3. Technical capacity at local and national levels In Africa and Asia there is a lack of national and local capacity, but the technological inefficiency is greater in Africa and at the local level. A major reason for this is that there is a lack of local awareness, another barrier that will be further discussed below. 4. Funding Funding is a severe barrier in combating drought in Africa in particular. Africa is, however, receiving funding from public and private sectors, the government, and private donors to address the need for drought-induced food insecurity. This raises the question of whether the funds allocated for drought are being used efficiently and effectively, and whether these funds are allocated towards proactive mitigation and prevention of drought relateddisasters and not just reactive measures. 5. Local awareness Often, local knowledge and practices of drought risk management are undermined, leading to capacity that is not developed to its full potential. Lack of local awareness also leads to increased drought impacts and the prevention of strategies that effectively reduce drought risk. 2.3 Vulnerable Populations and Economic Sectors to Consider Below are the populations and economic sectors vulnerable to drought as proposed by UNCCD, FAO and WMO at the High Level Meeting on National Drought Policy (HMNDP) in Geneva, March Vulnerable Populations Women Children The Elderly Invalid, Infirm and Sick Landless Farmers Pastoralists Marginalized Communities Indigenous communities and Populations 28 UNCCD, FAO, WMO (2012). High Level Meeting on Drought Policy (HMNDP) CICG, Geneva. Science Document: Best Practices on National Drought Management Policy.

32 Table 6- Vulnerable populations to drought Rain-fed agricultural production Vulnerable Economic Sectors Sector Impact Potential Mitigation Reduced or no crop yields; increase in extreme events Imports, sowing different and accelerating trends on crops, improved agronomic the productivity of rain-fed practices (i.e. no tillage), no agriculture sowing at all Irrigated agricultural production Livestock production Water Environment Transportation Health Reduced water quantity and quality; reduced or no yields Livestock weight loss, mortality, destocking, increase in incidence of diseases, lower fertility and reproduction rates Degraded water quality (Salinity, BOD/COD), surface water shortages, overdrawing and depletion of groundwater Ecosystem degradation, loss of biodiversity, species migration and extinction, landscape changes and wind erosion, increased risk of wildfires, fisheries impacts Reduced transportation and navigation on rivers and lakes Morbidity and mortality increases, increased incidence of suicides, degradation of sanitation, Water rationing, water allocation review, sowing dry-land crops, introduction of water banks for temporary transfer of water rights Destocking, feed distribution, cattle parking/relocation of herds, nomadic migration, use of special reserved areas (stock routes and stock reserves) Ex ante identification of supplemental and alternative sources of water, use of reserve sources of groundwater, technical optimization of water resources, water laws and policies for special circumstances, establish a water security plan for all rural and urban areas with respect to climate change, prediction of future water use to determine zoning, development of critical thresholds Maintenance of environmental flows Preparation of alternate transportation plans using rail and roadways Food supplements, stockpiling food, more robust social safety nets, improved access to mental and physical

33 decreasing levels of nutrition health care, access to counselling services Tourism and recreation Energy Society Education Cost of emergency response programs Secondary and tertiary impacts on economic productivity Loss of recreation areas, decline of tourism revenue, reduction in taxes collected Decreased hydropower production, brownouts and blackouts, increased demand, destruction of transmission lines Migration and loss of community, increased conflicts, increased theft and crime, migration of population of farm/rural areas to urban areas School dropout rates, lower school enrolment Amount spent on relief and response Loss of income and productivity, opportunity costs, higher personal debt levels Improved management of water reservoirs, reallocation of water supplies between user sectors Energy restrictions, improvements in efficiency, alternative energy supplies, diversification of energy sources Social protection and crashtransfer programmes, diversification of rural livelihoods, employment programs and schemes, provision of counselling services Targeted social protection, mid-day meal schemes to prevent dropouts Insurance schemes, better targeting of response programs, improved monitoring of impact sectors to identify when measures should be implemented to mitigate impacts Employment guarantee schemes and loan waivers Table 7- Vulnerable economic sectors to drought

34 2.4 Standard Approaches, Vulnerability and Application The standard approaches in drought management include two main approaches: - Reactive Approach - Proactive Approach Reactive Approach: This approach is based on the implementation of measures and actions after a drought event has started and is perceived. This approach is taken in emergency situations and often results in inefficient technical and economic solutions. This is because actions are taken with little time to evaluate optimal actions and stakeholder participation is very limited. Proactive Approach: This approach includes measures designed in advance, with appropriate planning tools and stakeholder participation. The proactive approach is based both on short term and long term measures and includes monitoring systems for a timely warning of drought conditions. It can be considered an approach to "manage risk". A proactive approach consists of planning the necessary measures to prevent or minimize drought impacts in advance. Such an approach includes preparedness of planning tools which enable the consequences of a possible water emergency to be avoided or reduced, as well as the implementation of such plans when a drought occurs. The proactive approach foresees a continuous monitoring of hydro-meteorological variables and of the status of water reserves in order to identify possible water crisis situations and to apply the necessary measures before a real water emergency occurs. Nevertheless, if it is not possible to avoid a water crisis that appears as a natural public calamity (after a government declaration), the Drought Contingency Plan is implemented until the establishment of normal conditions. It is evident that a proactive approach, even if more complex, is more efficient than the traditional approach, since it allows drought mitigation measures (both long term and short term) to be defined in advance, improving the quality of the interventions. Approach Characteristics Limitations Reactive Based on the implementation of actions after a drought event has occurred and is perceived. Taken in emergency situations but not based on a contingency plan. Often results in inefficient technical and economic solutions since actions are taken with little time for evaluating optimal actions. Limited stakeholder participation. Proactive Actions designed in advance, with appropriate planning tools. Includes stakeholder participation. Provides both short and long term measures and includes early warning systems. Includes a contingency plan for emergency situations. The ineffective coordination and cooperation between institutions and the lack of policy to support and revise the proactive plan may lead to an inadequate planning. Table 8: Standard Approaches in drought management

35 The implementation of a proactive approach implies drafting plans in which the mitigation measures are clearly defined together with the instructions for their implementation. The proactive approach is recommended for drought management and will reduce the drought impacts and risks. This implies the following standard steps below: - Establish a specialized unit or section which is responsible for drought management. It can be within one of the key ministries such as the Ministry of Agriculture, Environment, or Water. - Establish a Steering Committee from relevant ministries, NGOs, Universities, Research Institutes, Farmers Associations, and private sector. The committee needs to have competences at different levels of implementation of policy and expert analysis. It might be helpful to have two committees: a policy committee and a technical committee. - Classify and characterize the geographical area into drought zones according to vulnerability (High, Medium, and Low). Drought characterization should also include a previous diagnosis of the sources, scales and reliability of the data used in the analysis. The correct drought characterization provides decision makers with a measurement of the abnormality of historical weather variability and its effects on a region. A methodological component is also essential for stakeholders. - Develop a GIS based database to house maps and drought information - Collect meteorological, hydrological, biological and socioeconomic data within the geographic zones. - Collect and share transboundary and regional meteorological data through direct regional cooperation programs or WMO joint programs or database. - Project potential future droughts based on collected meteorological data using climate change projection models. - Analyze the hydrological data and identify the impact of changes in rainfall and temperature on the each zone based on the drought projection. - Develop a monitoring system regular monitoring at fixed stations in each zone. Drought monitoring has the objective to warn about a possible incoming drought, providing adequate information for an objective drought declaration and for avoiding severe water shortages. - Update and modify the drought management plan based on new information on regular basis. - Develop an early warning system that incorporates the drought projections in the classified zones and alerts the various stockholders on regular basis. The warning system can be categorized into 4 mains stages: alert, alarm, emergency, and recovery. - Measure the impact of droughts in each zone and estimate the losses in each of the above listed indicators Drought management depends on indices to detect drought conditions, and thresholds to activate drought responses. Indices and thresholds are important to detect the onset of drought conditions, to monitor and measure drought events, and to quantify the hazard. The appropriate drought index is selected according to the type of drought. Indices may be considered as general or specific depending on the utility for which they have been devised. It is understood that this distinction is difficult. Some of the indices, however, are more appropriate for monitoring and some for the analysis of historical drought events. The most commonly applied drought indices include the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Palmer (Drought Severity Index PDSI) and deciles, due to their simplicity. It was concluded that the easiest index to use for monitoring purposes is the SPI, which is based on a single meteorological parameter (precipitation) and the RDI that also includes evapotranspiration. Recent advances in remote sensing provide products that have a large potential as drought indices. The NDVI is widely used for monitoring and forecasting crop production world-wide and by agricultural insurance companies.

36 2.5 Impact of Standard Approaches on Drought Management Effectiveness The adoption of standard approaches (SA) in drought management will minimize drought risk and impacts and will facilitate the decision making process. This can be seen in several areas: - SA facilitates the step-by-step execution of drought management plans, which minimizes the risk of missing any part in the management process. - SA minimizes errors and makes the projections more efficient. - SA helps to improve the quality of data and analysis procedures, which reflects on the projections and actions to be implemented. - Standard approaches increase readiness to face drought in a short period of time, which will reduce drought impacts. - SA fosters implementation of standardized categories of alerts for different types of events. It also identifies the situations in which alerts should be sent, which prepares stakeholders for action. - SAs provide guidelines in a comprehensive manner. They provide a standard method for receiving reports and information about drought situations from the concerned Ministries/ Departments/Agencies and State Governments and thereafter issuing alert messages to all concerned. This will help in the case that there is a change of staff or committee members so all will follow the same procedures. - SAs also standardize the information requirements for various event categories. This will facilitate the communication between various ministries. - SAs establish protocols for alerting decision makers and the Cabinet Secretariat. They also outline procedures for receiving and analyzing reports and issuing alerts through various modes to the concerned authorities. - SAs are designed to specify actions that are required to be taken for reporting on drought events. - SAs specify duties and responsibilities for the personnel working on drought management. Using standard approaches in developed countries like Europe and the United States shows that the impact and risk from such events are much less than the countries that do not use standard approaches. This is clear in all disaster events in general, and droughts in particular.

37 3. Effective Drought Monitoring and Early Warning Systems in the Region 3.1 The Importance of and Need for Monitoring and Early Warning Systems Early warning is the provision of timely and effective information, through identified institutions, that allow individuals at risk of a disaster to take action to avoid or reduce their risk and prepare for effective response. As mentioned before, most countries in North Africa and West Asia suffered and will suffer from the impacts of drought on human life, livestock, agriculture, water resources, and environment. Furthermore, published results from climate change models indicate that this region will continue to face serious droughts in the future. The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report synthesized the simulation results from 21 models. Results indicated that West Asia and North Africa are likely to see a centigrade temperature increase in the last 20 years of this century compared to the temperature of the last 20 years of the 20th century (Fig. 2, top row). In terms of precipitation, most of this region probably has had less rain (up to 50% less) in the last 20 years of this century compared to that of the precipitation in The IPCC also depicts the global drought scenarios for and Standard deviation is used for the comparison, and it is likely that there will be more Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) and higher negative soil moisture anomalies (i.e. soil moisture deficit) in West Asia and North Africa in the latter half of the 21st century. 30 According to the FAO, future drought leads to the following: 31 - A decrease in water availability of up to 40 mm per year by An increase in the number of dry days in most portions of the region - A decrease in the number of frost days and an increase in heat waves in more continental areas - A decrease in growing seasons - A 3ºC rise in temperature could cause maize yields in North Africa to fall by 15-25% and crop yields in West Asia to fall by 25-35% - Less soil moisture in arid lands will exacerbate degraded lands even further - The mean cost of climate change in the region, especially the Middle East, is predicted to result in about a 2.5% and 1.9% loss in gross domestic product (GDP), respectively, compared to a world without climate change In light of the above projections and considering the current trend and future projections for drought situation in West Asia and North Africa, drought early warning systems at the global, regional and national level are necessary because these systems provide the timely and reliable information necessary to make decisions regarding the management of water and other natural resources. Preparedness and early warning are key factors for improved operational management and help to reduce social vulnerability to drought by: 29Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.). CambridgeUniversity Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. 30 Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor, and P.M. Midgley (Eds.). CambridgeUniversity Press, The EdinburghBuilding, Shaftesbury Road, CambridgeCB2 8RUENGLAND, 582 pp. 31 Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations (2007) AQUASTAT Main Country Database (

38 Establishing a drought plan Identifying alert mechanisms Establishing the links between drought, water and development policies Scientific advances in seasonal to inter-annual climate forecasts and monitoring systems create the possibility to implement early warning systems in many regions, especially where the data and information systems are in place. 3.2 Drought Early Warning Systems in Developed Countries Effective drought monitoring and early warning systems are an integral part of efforts worldwide to improve drought preparedness. Timely and reliable data and information is the cornerstone of effective and proactive drought planning. However, the UN/ISDR recently completed a global survey and found that early warning systems for drought are more complex than those for other hydro-meteorological hazards and are, consequently, less developed globally. 32 Monitoring drought presents some unique challenges because of drought s distinctive characteristics (i.e., low onset, non-structural impacts, and large spatial extent). Therefore, choosing the appropriate indicators of drought and formulating those measurements into an effective early warning system can be challenging. The drought early warning and monitor system developed by the Drought Management Centre for South-Eastern Europe (DMCSEE) and the European Drought Observatory (EDO) by the European Commission Joint Research Centre uses a combined drought indicator, which is based on SPI, soil moisture and FAPAR. A map of droughts in Europe for the 2 nd ten-day period of March 2013 is presented in Figure 7. The color scales represent different drought scenarios: Watch means a relevant precipitation shortage is observed; Warning means this precipitation translates into a soil moisture anomaly; and Alert signifies when these two conditions are accompanied by an anomaly in the vegetation condition. 32United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN/ISDR) (2006) Global Survey of Early Warning Systems: A Report Prepared at the Request of the Secretary General of the United Nations (

39 Figure 7 - The European drought monitoring map In the US, a partnership emerged in 1999 between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), and the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln with the goal of improving the coordination and development of new drought monitoring tools. The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) became an operational product on August 18, The USDM is maintained on the website of the NDMC ( This website has evolved into a webbased portal for drought and water supply monitoring. Figure 8 shows a drought monitoring map for the US released on Mar 26, 2013.

40 Figure 8- The U.S. drought monitoring map In China, the National Climate Center is in charge of the monitoring, diagnosing and predicting the timing of the droughts. Figure 9 shows a map on the website, which depicts the precipitation anomalies percentage national map on Apr 2 nd, For the widely used indicators, such as SPI and PDSI, there is no related information found on the website. Another example is the Africa drought monitoring system shown in Figure 10. It shows changes in rainfall and temperature on regular basis and in short durations. As we know, a single variable is not enough for monitoring drought. It is suggested that drought indicators should be introduced for better monitoring.

41 Figure 9- China s drought monitoring map. Figure 10- Africa drought monitoring map.

42 3.2 Impact of Application of Early Warning Systems in the Selected Countries The impact of early warning systems is highly significant in saving lives, livestock, crops and the environment. In Europe, it is estimated that hydro-meteorological information and early warning systems saved several hundred lives per year, between 460 million and 2.7 billion Euros of disaster asset losses per year, and creates billion additional benefits per year through the optimization of economic production in weather-sensitive sectors (agriculture, energy etc.). In North Africa and West Asia, the published surveys and studies on drought, indicated that most countries in the region do not have well-functioning drought monitoring systems that would allow them to take timely action to mitigate the effects of drought. Even though the meteorological networks in most countries are adequate and wellequipped, they are poorly prepared to function effectively as a drought early warning system because of inadequate analytical tools required for drought monitoring, unsuitable information products, and insufficient data sharing. However, there is an example from Morocco where they established a National Drought Observatory (NDO) in 2001 with the goal of collecting, analysing, and delivering drought-related information in a timely manner, which includes assessing the frequency severity of drought. 33 Even though great strides have been made in these efforts in North Africa and West Asia, in general, there are still many challenges to overcome in developing effective drought monitoring. Some of the most pressing challenges include: - Enhancing data quality and collection network densities, - Reducing the cost and increasing the sharing of data, - Making early warning information more accurate and user friendly, - Integrating physical and social drought indicators into systematic and comprehensive monitoring and early warning systems, - Providing support to create and maintain systems. 3.3 Assessment of Required Resources and Capacity for Drought Monitoring The required resources for drought monitoring include national resources and international support. On the national level, drought monitoring requires a functional observation network. The spatial and temporal variability of rainfall is very high in the semi-arid and arid areas prone to drought. It is recommended to establish an observational network as follows: - Automatic weather station - Automatic rain-gauge - Ground water table observations - Surface water flow measurements - Regular updated satellite data The rainfall data not only needs to be accurately measured but it must also be measured and transmitted on a realtime basis. Telemetric rain gauges are useful in recording real time rainfall data, which enables near time analysis. The availability of real/near real time rainfall/weather data makes it possible to develop early warning systems. 33 De Pauw, E. (2005) Chapter 16: Monitoring Agricultural Drought in the Near East, In: V.K. Boken, A. P. Cracknell, and R.L. Heathcote, eds., Monitoring and Predicting Agricultural Drought, Oxford University Press: New York

43 The digital data obtained from telemetric rain gauges enables not only efficient database management but also enables development of operational early warning systems. Automatic weather stations and rain gauges need to be distributed at appropriate places to enable micro level analysis and forecasting. The observation network can be established from the existing stations which belong to various ministries or meteorological departments in each country. In order to get proper monitoring, the observational network would require a reasonably dense observational network. It also requires a skilled and operational maintenance staff to run the network. Drought monitoring indicators based on climate data and remote sensing products are at present the best available tools to monitor drought over large regions and time periods. 34 The two most widely used indicators are the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). In addition, the surface water supply index (SWSI), the standardized water indexes (SWI), the field monitoring and remote sensing systems and the socioeconomic indicators. These indicators should be used in an integrative way to have a better idea of drought severity. Below is a list of the basic indicators and the measurement means. Monitoring Indicators Rainfall Water supplies (domestic, livestock) Vegetation Cover Livestock Monitoring Means Rainfall Gauging Stations Household Survey Satellite imagery (NDVI) Livestock's Survey Table 9- Drought monitoring indicators and drought monitoring means Based on these indicators, a system of drought status classification can be developed, which recognizes 4 stages of drought: Drought Stage Advisory Alert Alarm Emergency Indicators Indicators remain generally within the expected seasonal ranges Marked negative changes in environmental indicators, cumulative rainfall <70% of mean, and/or an unusually low asset status due to previous losses Marked negative changes in environmental and rural economy indicators and/or cumulative rainfall <50 of mean Strongly negative changes in environmental, economic, and human welfare indicators prevail Table 10-4 stages of drought 34 Vicente-Serrano S. M. et al. 2012: Challenges for drought mitigation in Africa: The potential use of geospatial data and drought information systems. Applied Geography, 34,

44 On the international level, there are several centres with advanced technology that can support and help the countries in drought monitoring by providing them with satellite images and climate conditions projections. Some of these resources include: - The Experimental African Drought Monitor operated by the Land Surface Hydrology Group at Princeton University with support from the UNESCO International Hydrology Program; - The Global Drought Monitor, developed by the Department of Space and Climate Physics of the University College London; - The US Geological Survey (USGS) Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Data Portal, which is probably the most comprehensive drought monitoring system available. This portal is provided by the USGS FEWS NET Project, part of the Early Warning and Environmental Monitoring Program at the USGS Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Centre. It provides access to geo-spatial data, satellite image products, and derived data products in support of FEWS NET monitoring needs throughout the world. 20 indices including SPI, Daily 10-day Moisture Index, etc. are mapped and easily accessed. The second important requirement is the GIS database to house the data from the observation network and international centres. This requires professional staff to operate the database, which comes primarily during the analysis part where the meteorological data will be linked with hydrological and socioeconomic data. The third requirement is the transfer of the monitoring results into action plans at all levels. This needs to have a drought management unit/committee with technical expertise to communicate monitoring outcomes with all stakeholders.

45 4. Drought Risk Reduction Programs 4.1 Review of International Drought Management Programs (WMO, FAO, UNCCD, etc.) International organizations are heavily involved in drought management programs in the region. The most active organizations are FAO, UNDP, ICARDA, WMO, UNCCD and ESCWA. Below is a brief description of the international organizations drought management programs. The FAO has contributed to agricultural improvement and rural development in arid, semi-arid and dry subhumid zones ravaged by drought and desertification, primarily in the form of technical assistance projects requested by member nations or within programs that group together projects with common priorities (e.g., soil conservation, pasture and livestock improvement, irrigation, etc.). The FAO has adopted drought mitigation" as a Priority Area for Interdisciplinary Action, and agreed to help initiate a Network on Drought management for the Near East, Mediterranean and Central Asia (NEMEDCA drought network), along with ICARDA and the International Centre for Advanced Mediterranean Agronomic Studies (CIHEAM). Furthermore, in 2004 and 2005, the FAO approved three technical cooperation projects to assist in drought monitoring and mitigation planning in Syria, Iran and Jordan. UNDP has worked in Asian and African countries to reduce drought risk by promoting sustainable development and poverty eradication through programs that support: policy development, capacity building, financial and technical support for program development and implementation, advocacy, and outreach and raising awareness. 35 These actions are carried out by providing technical and financial resources through country offices, regional centres like the UNDP Dry lands Development Centre in Kenya and funding programs like the Global Environmental Facility. These programs support a wide range of projects, including assistance in developing national action plan for the UN Convention to Combat Desertification. 36 ESCWA sponsored studies to better understand drought impacts, vulnerabilities, and mitigation options in West Asia. It has undertaken recent research to better understand the vulnerability of the region to drought. 37 Seeing a need for more research and information on water development and drought, the ESCWA secretariat initiated a series of development reports focused on water resources in the region from 2004 to The study focused on examining the various components of socioeconomic drought and identifying indicators and mapping socioeconomic drought vulnerability in the ESCWA region, and proposed guidelines and recommendations for including socioeconomic concerns in drought preparedness and mitigation activities in the region. The study utilized three case studies (Jordan, the Syrian Arab Republic, and Yemen) to investigate drought vulnerability and how countries in the region are currently mitigating and managing drought. For each country, the study investigated climatic, water resource, agricultural, environmental, and socioeconomic vulnerabilities, and drought early warning and mitigation strategies. In general, the studies found that there is a lack of understanding and awareness in terms of drought and its impacts, as well as a capacity to mitigate it, in the ESCWA region. The International Centre of Agriculture Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA) engages in drought management and mitigation of its effects through the development of technologies. ICARDA mitigation measures have centred 35 United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) (2006) Partnerships to fight Poverty through Sustainable Land Management. Report of the United Nations Development Programme to the fifth session of the Committee for the Review of the Convention (CRIC 5) ( 36 United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) (2005) Partnerships to fight Poverty in the Drylands, Report of the United Nations Development Program to the third session of the Committee for the Review of the Convention (CRIC 3), 2-11 May, Bonn, Germany ( 37Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) (2005) ESCWA WaterDevelopment Report 1: Vulnerability of the Region to Socio-Economic Drought, United Nations: New York.

46 on improvements in production and management of crops, land and water resources through various techniques (e.g. the development of crop varieties and breeds that tolerate drought, adapted livestock management, deficit and supplemental irrigation, water harvesting and no-till or minimum tillage systems). Through these means, ICARDA has supported national programmers and agricultural research systems in the region to promote better natural resource management to increase agricultural productivity and resilience to drought. With the omnipresent threat of drought in the region due to of climate change, the urgency to integrate drought management into long-term development is fundamental. ICARDA, as part of its efforts, hosts the Network on Drought Management for the Near East, Mediterranean and Central Asia (NEMEDECA), which was created in 2002 with ICARDA, the FAO and the Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes (CIHEAM). The Network serves to enhance technical cooperation among concerned national, regional and international organizations in the region. The Network s objectives include promoting risk, vulnerability and impact assessments of drought, preparing and creating drought-preparedness and mitigation plans and promoting cooperation in planning and implementing drought-mitigation programmes at national and regional levels. The NEMEDECA network involves nations in the Arabian Peninsula, Central Asia, the Mediterranean European region, North Africa, the Nile Valley and the Red Sea, and West Asia. NEMEDECA is a partner in the European Union-supported project on Mediterranean Drought Preparedness and Mitigation Planning (MEDROPLAN), which, under the coordination of the Mediterranean Agronomic Institute of Zaragoza (IAMZ), has recently developed guidelines for managing drought risk using preparedness plans and early warning systems. The MEDROPLAN guidelines provide a framework to move from a reactive to a proactive approach in fighting drought through a wide range of methodologies of drought analysis and management involving various stakeholders. In January 2008, ICARDA hosted a workshop about the applicability of these guidelines in Egypt, Gaza and the West Bank, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Syria and Turkey. ICARDA is actively involved in developing integrated approaches to enhancing drought and risk management measures and policies with partners and various stakeholders. For the Maghreb region, a network for the development of drought early warning systems (SMAS) which was established between Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia and it is coordinated by OSS. The plan of action was launched and some activities have started. 4.2 Drought Risk Management at Multiple Levels There are multiple levels of a drought risk management plan: immediate actions, short term actions, mid-term actions, and long-term actions. Immediate actions tend to be more reactive measures while the longer-term actions are more proactive, which is the main goal for providing drought mitigation. A drought risk management plan must be multifaceted enough to encompass the diverse and multileveled effects of drought as it occurs both at local and national levels, across sectors, and with differing severity. In the regions of Africa and Asia the focus tends to be on food security and water resource issues. As discussed in previous sections, land degradation and poor governance are among the top areas of vulnerability to drought in Asia and Africa, however these areas are among the least common addressed in drought management plans. That being said, drought management, especially in the West Asia and North Africa region, should therefore implement plans to combat poor governance systems and land degradation. As previously emphasized, is important that countries and communities adopt integrated water resources management (IWRM) in order to help improve and restore the hydrological cycle. The box below describes what mitigation can be implemented at each level of drought risk management.

47 Figure 11- Indicative list of Drought Risk Management activities 4.2 Incorporating Community Involvement into Drought Risk Management The most successful drought risk management practices incorporate community involvement and a community basis for action. Some of the key issues to address when creating a drought management plan include: