RTB progress, priorities and planning for climate resilience. Jan

Transcription

1 RTB progress, priorities and planning for climate resilience Jan

2 RTB PROGRAM

3 A COLLABORATION OF: Broad based collaborative platform Around 200+ research-for-development stakeholders & partners Including private sector

4 Our Crops Banana Plantain Cassava Potato Sweetpotato Yam Other R&T 300 million small holder farmers and processors depend on RTB crops Buffering role in food systems

5 Why Roots, Tubers and Bananas? RTBs share Genetic complexity Vegetative propagation, similar seed systems Perishability, bulkiness and post harvest/value chain options

6 Biological constraints to breeding Breeding complexity Banana Cassava Potato Sweet potato Yam Multi-species Polyploidy Clonal propagation Heterozygosity Multiplication rate/year 1:10 1:5 1:10 1:15 1:20 Other constraints: Low seed setting Low germination Crossing difficulties Long generation time

7 RTB ACHIEVEMENTS

8 1. Adding value synergistic research: breeding Sequencing and phenotyping data Support genomic analyses (GWAS, GS) for complex traits (eg. potato tuberization and early bulking, fertility and fruit quality in banana) Common Vision RTB data management and bio-informatics Promote linkages CassavaBase, SweetpotatoBase, MusaBase etc with Integrated Breeding Platform and multiple crop/center tools January 2015, Ithaca August 2015, Bioversity Montpellier

9 1. Adding value synergistic research: breeding Integrating End User Preferences in RTB Breeding Workshop Kampala (Feb 2015) Critical gaps: working across disciplines to fill gaps in knowledge and technical support to bring greater end-user awareness to public sector

10 1. Adding value: seed, pests and diseases and post harvest Biological and socio-economic surveys pests and diseases along altitudinal gradients Modelling to understand degeneration of planting material and design cost effective interventions Improvement of energy efficiency in cassava processing & adding value to RTB waste products Collaboration with ILRI and CRP Livestock & Fish and CRP Humidtropics

11 1. Adding value: example Seed degeneration and modelling seed systems Yield loss viruses and seed system major shared constraint Knowledge gap on actual losses and degeneration Common framework: banana, cassava, potato, sweetpotato, yam CG centers, KSU + NARS

12 General procedure: Field trials linked to modeling Sara (KSU)

13 Building a Culture of Collaboration Implementing Planning Data management Publishing Evidence based policy

14 2. Platform for engaging partners RTB part of GCP21 governance Enthusiastically supports GCP21 and ISTRC as partnership organizations

15 2. Platform for engaging partners Co-constructed impact pathways: Results frameworks validated at national/regional level Basis for defining roles, synergies and coordination mechanisms Cassava processing, Nigeria Potato seed system, Kenya

16 3. Integrating gender into core research Targeted and linked up approach for gender research: Gender and breeding RTB & NEXTGEN Cassava project pilot study on gender differentiated preferences for cassava traits in Nigeria Critical gaps and building capacity with RTB-University Partnership Gender Integration initiative 9 universities and 6 students in 2015

17 4. Outstanding external review - IEA 1. Notable progress in past 4 years 2. RTB strongly warrants continuing 3. Well directed, achieving reasonable # of milestones 4. Adding value across crops and centers 5. Science sound 6. NARs appreciative

18 5. RTB led projects RTB-ENDURE: Expanding utilization of roots, tubers and bananas and reducing their postharvest losses Product differentiation in cooking banana value chain Sweetpotato and RTB crop residues for pig feeds Postharvest innovations for better access to specialized ware potato markets Extending shelf-life of fresh cassava roots

19 Nigeria Cassava Value Chain & project Seed Quality & Protocols Breeder Seed Foundation seed Commer cial seed growers Farmers / Seed Users Consumer Demand & Money M&E Seed & Information

20 Cassava seed value chain workshop NRCRI NASC RTB facilitated IITA Context Network Fera SAH

21 CGIAR AND RTB CHANGES UNDERWAY!

22 3 System Level Outcomes Programmatic Intermediate Development Outcomes (IDOs) 30 Programmatic sub-idos Cross-cutting IDOs 16 Cross-cutting sub-idos Global Challenges

23 Global integrating programs Portfolio of CGIAR Research Programs Dryland Cereals and Legumes systems Fish agri-food systems Forest and Agroforestry systems Livestock agri-food systems Maize agrifood systems Rice agri-food systems Roots, tubers and bananas systems Wheat agri-food systems N U T R I T I O N & H E A L T H P I M W L E C L I M A T E C H A N G E Agri-food systems programs G e n e b a n k s

24 Total number of beneficiaries (2022) 1 20,000,000 people (50% women) increased their income 30,000 small and medium enterprises operating more profitably in RTB seed and processing sectors 8,000,000 farm households increased RTB yield through adoption of improved varieties and sustainable management practices 10,000,000 people (50% women) improved their diet quality (measured by dietary diversity score) 800,000 ha of farm land with soil carbon and nutrients content improved 1,700,000 ha of current RTB production area converted to sustainable cropping systems Primary target countries Africa: Burundi, Cameroon+, Congo, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)+, Ethiopia++, Ghana+, Ivory Coast, Kenya+, Malawi+, Mozambique+, Nigeria++, Rwanda+, Tanzania++, Uganda+, Zambia+ Americas: Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Haiti, Peru Asia: Bangladesh++, China, India+, Indonesia, Nepal+, Thailand, The Philippines, Vietnam++

25 CRP Second Phase Pre-proposal submission and review 2015 Highly collaborative writing team! Close engagement Humidtropics CRP Submission of full proposal and review 2016 Writing process underway

26 RTB New Program Structure

27 Six big achievements of RTB! 1. Adding value through synergistic, cross crop research 2. Platform for engaging broad range of partners: ARIs, national programs, private sector and NGOs 3. Integrating gender into core research activities 4. Outstanding external review! 5. RTB led projects in Uganda on post harvest innovation and Nigeria on cassava seed 6. Successfully transitioning to a new agri-food system CRP as part of CGIAR reform

28 RTB PLANNING FOR CLIMATE RESILIENCE: POVERTY IMPACTS

29 Sub-Saharan Africa most vulnerable: price rises and climate change World Bank 2016 Shock Waves: Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty

30 Food price rises could lead to big increases in poverty World Bank 2016

31 Per-capita food demand Cereals Roots & tubers Oilseeds Pulses Fruits & veg Meat WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa; IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, 8 September 2015

32 Population at risk of hunger: different climate change scenarios EAP = East Asia and Pacific; SAS = South Asia; FSU = Former Soviet Union; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, 8 September 2015

33 Technological change dampening increased food costs: esp SSA Increased food costs World Bank 2016

34 Climate change, poverty and roots and tubers 1. Climate change will increase food prices 2. Increasing food prices worsens extreme poverty 3. Per capita demand for roots and tubers in SSA significantly higher than cereals in High global emissions scenario, population at risk of hunger declines markedly in most of world, but only slightly in SSA 5. Technological change in roots and tubers essential to dampen food price increases and risk of hunger under any climate change scenario World Bank 2016

35 RTB PLANNING FOR CLIMATE RESILIENCE: CROP MODELLING

36 Is cassava the answer to African climate change adaptation? A. Jarvis et al 1. Projections Cassava positively impacted many areas 3.7% to +17.5% changes climate suitability 3. Other staples ( 16% ± 8.8), potato ( 14.7 ± 8.2), banana ( 2.5% ± 4.9), and sorghum ( 2.66% ± 6.45) 4. Ecological niche modeling: cassava mosaic disease, whitefly, brown streak disease and cassava mealybug

37 Pest Risk Assessment and Climate Change Target Sites along Altitudinal Gradients Climate gradient Burundi, Rusizi Basin: 900 to 2600 m Rwanda, Ruhengeri: 1400 to 2600 m Rusizi Basin, Burundi

38 Altitude Effects on RTB Pest/Diseases BXW & Fusarium wilt CMD, CBSD & whiteflies

39 Native Potatoes shift to higher altitudes

40 Shift to higher altitudes of native potatoes 297m in 50 years Source: Juarez, Pasencia and De Haan

41 Climate change: potato tuber moth distribution Generation index [2000] [2050] `` Phthorimaea operculella `` generations / year 3-4 generations / year 5-6 generations / year 7-8 generations / year 8-9 generations / year Economic threshold >4 generations per year Increase from 25.9% to 37.0% total area by Kroschel, J., Sporleder, M., Tonnang, H.E.Z., Juarez, H., Carhuapoma, P., Gonzales, J.C. and Simon, R. (2013) Predicting climate change caused changes in global temperature on potato tuber moth Phthorimaea operculella (Zeller) distribution and abundance using phenology modeling and GIS mapping. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 170:

42 Monitoring Food Safety w/ Climate Change Total Glycoalkaloid concentration (TGA) advanced heat tolerant, disease resistant potato clones Normal versus high temperature conditions in Peru TGA (mg/ 100 g, FW) La Molina Winter San Ramon Max safe TGA 0.0 Breeder s goal max. TGA Source: Bonierbale, Zum Felde

43 RTB PLANNING FOR CLIMATE RESILIENCE: RESEARCH OPTIONS

44 Yields of storage roots vs. pencil roots represent an indicator for heat tolerance. Screening sweetpotato for heat tolerance Evaluation environments (N. Peru): -heat stress (summer): Ø soil temp. at night: 30 C -no-heat stress (winter): Ø soil temp. at night 24 C Plant material: 1973 germplasm accessions CIP genebank. Key prioritized traits: heat tolerance and early bulking, plant performance and yield related traits assessed. Remote sensing fast throughput method to screen effects of heat on biochemical and physiological processes Experimental site in Piura during winter.

45 Aerial picture: summer 2014 heat stress exposure at maximum storage root bulking. Thermographic image: of summer 2014 heat stress exposure at maximum storage root bulking.

46 Results Large fraction sweetpotato germplasm heat stress tolerant (i.e., 305 clones with yields >12.2 t ha-1 under stress). Considerable genetic variation heat stress Large pool favorable alleles to heat stress Large and sustainable genetic gains expected Bettina Heider 1, Elisa Romero 1, Raul Eyzaguirre 1, Wolfgang Grüneberg 1, Emile Faye 2, Stef de Haan 1,3 and Merideth Bonierbale 1 1= CIP, 2=IRD (Institut de recherche pour le développement), 3=CIAT

47 Root System Architecture and its Potential Role in Stress Tolerance in RTB Crops Awais Khan December 8, 2015

48 Root Traits are Positively Correlated with HI and Tuber Yield under Drought Stress

49 New paradigm of Genomics-Assisted Climate Sensitive Breeding Do what we were already doing but: Faster Better More intelligently Varshney et al Foresight, models and metrics for climate sensitive breeding

50 8. Wrap up 1. Climate change increase food prices and poverty 2. Largest effect SSA: roots and tubers primary staple 3. Complex picture of climate change impacts 4. Considerable scope adaptation roots and tubers 5. Very large unknowns and unexpected effects 6. Climate sensitive breeding priority 7. Breeding metrics: faster, better, more intelligent 8. High priority for RTB to support teaming up!