FIFTH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON AGRICULTURE STATISTICS

Transcription

1 FIFTH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON AGRICULTURE STATISTICS Kampala, Uganda October 2010 Overview of methodological issues for research to improve agricultural statistics in developing countries (based on the research component of the implementation plan for Africa of the Global Strategy) Naman Keita, Senior Statistician, FAO Elisabetta Carfagna, Professor, University of Bologna, Italy 1

2 Overview of the presentation Introduction Challenges for agriculture data collection in developing countries Importance of methodological research for improving agricultural statistics Prioritisation of the research topics Project framework: Impact, outcomes, outputs and activities Sustainability Implementation and management arrangements Communication and visibility Concluding remarks 2

3 1. INTRODUCTION The purpose of the global strategy is to provide a framework and methodologythat will lead to the improvement of national and international food and agricultural statistics to guide policy analysis and decision making in the 21st century Common problems in many developing countries include and particularly in Africa: -> Lack of adequate technical tools; -> Lack of adequate statistical methodology; -> Lack of adequate survey framework to support data production efforts 3

4 2. CHALLENGES FOR AGRICULTURAL DATA COLLECTION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES Agriculture is an integral part of the complex rural economy. Specific challenges for rural and agricultural data collection in many developing countries, particularly in Africa DATA ON CROP(1) dual production system in many countries with a growing commercial and modern farms sub-sector in parallel with small subsistence farms sub-sector the bulk of agricultural production (particularly food crop) still comes from the small subsistence farms sub-sector; wide variety of agricultural practices in small farmers subsector: mix-cropping, continuous planting and harvesting on small and irregular shaped plots, etc... 4

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6 2. CHALLENGES FOR AGRICULTURAL DATA COLLECTION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DATA ON CROP(2) Lack of record keeping and non use of standard measurement units Most producers are also consumers (importance of self consumption) Wide regional diversity in the importance of crops grown in different countries and sub-regions: cereals, root crops, fruits and vegetables -> Consequence: specific methodological challenges to accurately measure, basic variables: crop area, yield and production, and collecting relevant data for understanding the decision making of smallholder producers. 6

7 2. CHALLENGES FOR AGRICULTURAL DATA COLLECTION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DATA ON LIVESTOCK enumeration of nomadic and semi-nomadic livestock, social constraints to obtaining accurate numbers on livestock in pastoral societies estimation of livestock products, especially with regards to small animals. DATA ON FISHERY AND FORESTRY estimation of fish production for in-land, traditional fishery and marine fishery. estimation of edible forest products, fire wood production etc, raise additional methodological challenges. DATA FOR EMERGING ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES Data to explain to what extent agricultural activities are determined by the environment and the impact of external events Data to measure the use of agricultural products for bio-fuel etc CONSEQUENCE:Quality of data on agricultural sector in many countries, particularly its accuracy, recurrently been questioned by data users. 7

8 3. IMPORTANCE OF METHODOLOGICAL RESEARCH FOR IMPROVING AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS PAST EFFORTS In the 50 s up to end 80 s important efforts were made to develop tools and methods to address some of the specific challenges above FAO was at the forefront of this effort with the World Bank [Sukhatme, Panse, Leslie Kish, Narain, Petricevic, Zarkovich, Casley...etc..] Methods and tools for estimating crop area, yield and production were largely inspired by research conducted in India in the 40 s and 50 s on objective measurement and crop cutting [teams of Mahalanobis and Sukhatme], with continuous efforts for updating and improvement The efforts resulted in publication of some basic methodological guidelines and practical handbooks on collecting agricultural statistics in developing countries and framework for integrated agricultural statistics systemstill widely used by agricultural statisticians in African countries In 90 s and 2000 s: decline in efforts for methodological research but still some important publications were produced: Decennial World Programme for Census of Agriculture, Multiple Frame methodology, working documents on crop forecasting, enumeration of nomadic livestock, estimation of root crop production etc However, methodological research effort was not at the level of challenges of changing data requirements and data needs to inform emerging issues Many basic publications were not updated to integrating new advances. 8

9 3. IMPORTANCE OF METHODOLOGICAL RESEARCH FOR IMPROVING AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS CURRENT SITUATION AND NEED FOR RENEWED INVESTMENT IN RESEARCH New opportunities in recent years: technological advances (geo-spatial/remote sensing information, geopositioning /mobile computing devices such as GPS, PDA, CAPI etc.) successful methods and experiences in countries in Africa and other regions alternative and more efficient methods and tools relevant to African context can be developed. Sound and cost-effective methodologies and tools are cornerstones for building effective and sustainable agricultural statistics systems in Africa. There is a need for a comprehensive and integrated methodological research programme which can support efforts to improve agricultural statistics in Africa. The results of the RESEARCH COMPONENT will serve as inputs for both the training component and the technical assistance component 9

10 4. PRIORITISATION OF RESEARCH TOPICS (Implementation Plan for Africa) Aim of the research component:to address specific methodological challenges faced by statisticians and data users in collecting and using agricultural statistics in Africa Mains steps for defining priority topics for methodological research in the implementation plan for Africa Stakeholders Conference in Tunis in February 2010 Survey of selected key Stakeholders Review Meeting in Rome September

11 4. PRIORITISATION OF RESEARCH TOPICS (Implementation Plan for Africa) The Tunis Conference proposed: An initial list of research topics based on recommendations from the African Commission on Agriculture Statistics and other expert knowledge Criteria for prioritization of the topics 11

12 4. PRIORITISATION OF RESEARCH TOPICS (Implementation Plan for Africa) SURVEY OF KEY STAKEHOLDERS Questionnaire developed and sent to: Senior African agricultural statisticians Senior International consultants with long experience in Africa and other developing countries, International and Regional Institutions with experiences relevant to Agricultural Statistics in Africa Academic and training institutions with experience relevant to Africa, Selected Development Partners Questionnaire 12

13 4. PRIORITISATION OF RESEARCH TOPICS RESULTS Of THE SURVEY OF KEY STAKEHOLDERS (30 respondents) PRIORITY LEVEL 1 Improvement of estimation of crop area, yield and production PRIORITY LEVEL 2 "Use of GPS in the production of agricultural statistics"; "Development of master sampling frames" PRIORITY LEVEL 3 Methodology for the compilation of food security statistics ; Methods for estimating crop area, yield and production of mixed and/or repeated cropping ; Methods for estimating yield of root crops, edible forest products, etc. PRIORITY LEVEL 4 Development of an integrated survey programme 13

14 4. PRIORITISATION OF RESEARCH TOPICS RESULTS Of THE SURVEY OF KEY STAKEHOLDERS PRIORITY LEVEL 5 Linking area frames with list frames ; Estimation of food stocks ; Estimation of farm gate prices PRIORITY LEVEL 6 Reconciliation of census data with survey data PRIORITY LEVEL 7 Use of remote sensing Determination of user s information needs for decision making PRIORITY LEVEL 8 Use of small area estimation methods for improving agricultural statistics PRIORITY LEVEL 9 Estimation of informal cross border trade data ; Use of administrative data for improving agricultural statistics 14

15 4. PRIORITISATION OF RESEARCH TOPICS RESULTS Of THE SURVEY OF KEY STAKEHOLDERS Additional research topics suggested (1) Reconciliation of households survey (user) with farm structure survey (producer); Improved sample design for areas with low population densities; Estimation des coûts de production des principales filières agricoles; Estimation of key environment indicators ; Integrated sample surveys for estimation of livestock products; Sample survey for estimation of fisheries statistics (both inland and marine); Connection between the statistical methods for national statistics, and those for the agricultural research community. Automatic data processing; 15

16 4. PRIORITISATION OF RESEARCH TOPICS RESULTS Of THE SURVEY OF KEY STAKEHOLDERS Additional research topics suggested (2) Conducting agriculture census with complete enumeration using remote sensing; Management of the sample in the case of annual agricultural surveys in the framework of a permanent system for agricultural statistics Livestock sub-sector statistics; Methods for estimating agriculture productivity; Methods of estimating livestock by number and type; Methods of estimating livestock production (meat, milk, etc.); Method of estimating horticulture production (fruits and vegetables); Crop forecasting methods. 16

17 4. PRIORITISATION OF RESEARCH TOPICS Outcome of Review meeting of Rome Following final criteria for selecting and ranking research topics: Contribution of topics to implementation of Global Strategy recommendations Thematic grouping of topics using expert knowledge Use results of stakeholder surveys Identify topics specific to Africa Region and topics also relevant to other regions 17

18 Rank of the thematic domains and of the corresponding research topics (1) Pillar I: establishment of a minimum set of core data Pillar II: integration of agriculture into the national statistical system Thematic domain Research topic Pillar of the Global Strategy Relevant to Africa mainly Relevant also to other regions Reference framework Framework for development of an integrated agricultural statistics programme II pillar Mainstreaming agriculture into NSDS II pillar Implementation of an Integrated Survey Framework II pillar Master frame for integrated survey Use of GPS in the production of agricultural statistics II pillar Linking area frames with list frames II pillar Use of remote sensing II pillar

19 Rank of the thematic domains and of the corresponding research topics (2) Thematic domain Data collection methods Research topic Improvement of estimation of crop area, yield and production Methods for estimating crop area, yield and production of: mixed crops repeated cropping continuous cropping Methods for estimating yield of root crops Pillar of the Global Strategy I pillar I pillar I pillar Relevant to Africa mainly Cost of production I pillar Methodology for: enumerating nomadic livestock estimating livestock products I pillar Adoption of new technologies I pillar Forestry and deforestation I pillar Crop forecasting and early warning I pillar Inland fishery, aquaculture I pillar Interaction between climate, environment, global worming and agriculture II pillar Land cover monitoring II pillar Relevant also to other regions

20 Rank of the thematic domains and of the corresponding research topics (3) Thematic domain Food security Research topic Methodology for the estimation of: supply utilization account food balance sheets food stocks edible forest products Pillar of the Global Strategy II pillar Relevant to Africa mainly Nutrition indicators II pillar Use of households surveys / LSMS for food security indicators II pillar Market information Estimation of farm gate prices I pillar Collecting data on agriculture rural and border market prices Collecting data on factors and product markets affecting agricultural activities I pillar I pillar Data analysis Reconciliation of census data with survey data II pillar Improvement and use of administrative data Determination of user s information needs for decision making Use of small area estimation methods for improving agricultural statistics II pillar II pillar Improvement of administrative data II pillar Use of administrative data for improving agricultural statistics II pillar Estimation of informal cross border trade data II pillar Relevant also to other regions

21 Project framework: Impact, outcome Overall objective (Impact): support the implementation of the Global Strategy for Agricultural and Rural Statistics in Africa, through: establishment of a minimum set of core data to meet current and emerging demands integration of agriculture into the national statistical systems improved governance of agricultural statistics systems and capacity building. Purpose (Outcome): prepare technical guidelines, and handbooks on advanced methodologies, standards and tools related to the pillars of the Global Strategy to Improve Agriculture and Rural Statistics in the prioritised research topics. 21

22 Project framework: outputs Report with final list of criteria and priority research topics validated by main stakeholders during a regional workshop back-to back with AFCAS For each priority topic, reports on the: ongoing or already completed research activities on the selected priority topics review of relevant literature («état des lieux» and «state of the art») gaps analysis and remaining methodological issues identified potential partner technical institutions Empirical studies designed, and field tested by relevant technical partner institutions Technical reports on findings and recommendations for possible solutions to methodological issues prepared, peer reviewed and validated by experts Guidelines and handbooks prepared and disseminated Training material prepared on the basis of guidelines and handbooks 22

23 Milestones/benchmarks by the end of year 2015 and annual performance indicators Milestones/benchmarks by end of 2015 Annual performance indicators Final list of priority research topics identified Status of art concerning selected topics analysed, gaps analysis performed, remaining methodological issues identified Report with final list of prioritised topics prepared by October 2011 Report, prepared by March 2012, on the survey made by FAO and on the status of art and gaps analysis Partner technical institutions selected Partner technical institutions selected by March 2012 Empirical studies designed and field tested by relevant technical Empirical studies carried out by the March 2013 partner institutions Technical reports on findings and recommendations for possible solutions to methodological issues prepared, peer reviewed and validated by experts Technical reports on findings and recommendations for possible solutions to methodological issues prepared, peer reviewed and validated by experts by the end of 2013 Guidelines and handbooks prepared and disseminated Training material prepared on the basis of guidelines and handbooks Guidelines and handbooks prepared and disseminated by June 2015 Training material prepared on the basis of guidelines and handbooks by the end of 2015

24 Number of senior African agricultural statisticians, institutions, international experts which declare they have experience in the research topics Number of African agricultural statistician, institutions, experts which declare they have experience in the research topics RESEARCH TOPICS 16 Improvement of estimation of crop area, yield and production 15 Estimation of farm gate prices 13 Use of GPS in the production of agricultural statistics 11 Use of remote sensing 11 Methods for estimating crop area, yield and production of mixed and/or repeated cropping 11 Determination of user s information needs for decision making 10 Estimation of food stocks 10 Use of small area estimation methods for improving agricultural statistics 9 Methodology for the compilation of food security statistics 9 Reconciliation of census data with survey data 9 Development of an integrated survey programme 8 Methods for estimating yield of root crops, edible forest products, etc. 6 Development of master sampling frames 6 Use of administrative data for improving agricultural statistics 5 Linking area frames with list frames 5 Estimation of informal cross border trade data

25 Example of collaboration and synergy between FAO and World Bank in LSMS project FAO and World Bank are planning to collaborate in the following activities in order to take advantage from a synergic approach: Improving productivity estimate Improving measurement of income and its components Linking population and area-based sampling for livestock statistics Climate change 25

26 SUSTAINABILITY Stakeholder ownership promoted Existing structures used whenever possible African Statistical System African research institutes Project activities implemented as part of current activities Donor support for Production of guidelines Decreasing support in implementation withthe increase of the experience Over time, producing the minimum core data will constitute routine activities of NSSs in the countries 26

27 Implementation and management arrangements Research component will be coordinated, supervised and financially managed by a centralized Unit (3 staff) located at FAO Implementation will be done through decentralised and regional structures and academic institutions with proven expertise. Special attention to: supervision and coordination; transparency; coordinating structure; assignment of subcontracts on tender basis on basis of comparative advantage and expertise use of existing good models 27

28 Communication and visibility Communication and sharing results with allow: The stakeholders to meet their requirements Strengthen sustainability of actions and results To strengthen overall statistical development Reporting system will help to: track the progress of the project provide stakeholders with regular status updates 28

29 Concluding remarks The research component on the implementation plan has ambitious goal of having a significant impact on the methods and the processes used for producing agricultural statistics in order to improve their reliability. The improvement of agricultural statistics will be particularly evident in developing countries which generally have specific challenges and difficulties to put in place cost-effective, up timely and reliable surveys as well as effective data analysis methods. The main results of the research will be the preparation of updated and peer reviewed guidelines and handbooks which will be disseminated and used in training and technical assistance. This goal can be achieved only if the various institutions, the donors and the users will strongly collaborate and support the activities, since their viewpoints and support will ensure to produce useful results. 29

30 Thank you for your attention! Naman Keita FAO, Statistics Division Elisabetta Carfagna University of Bologna 30