On-farm and Off-farm Strategies for

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1 On-farm and Off-farm Strategies for Managing Seasonal Hunger C. Leigh Anderson, Margaret Beetstra, Pierre Biscaye, Josh Merfeld, Katie Panhorst Harris, & Travis Reynolds Evans School Policy Analysis & Research Group (EPAR) Seasonal Hunger and Public Policy: Intersectoral Solutions Needed Consortium of Universities for Global Health 2016 Research Committee Breakout Session

2 Defining and Measuring Seasonal Hunger Consequences of Seasonal Hunger Seasonal and Chronic Hunger in Tanzania and Malawi Empirical Results Conclusions Presentation Plan

3 Defining & Measuring Seasonal Hunger

4 Time period preceding the harvest (Vaitla et al., 2009; Zug, 2006) Time after food stocks from previous harvest are exhausted (Mburu et al., 2015; Milgroom & Giller, 2013; Paxson, 1993) Defining Seasonal Hunger Approximately 2-6 months, depending on weather and number of harvests/year (Daie & Woldtsadik, 2015; Hadley et al., 2007; Hart, 2009; Lambrechts & Barry, 2003; Rademacher-Schulz, 2014) Defining & Measuring Seasonal Hunger

Measuring the Seasonally Hungry 795 million people globally are hungry (FAO, 2015) 70% of the world s poor live in rural areas (World Bank, 2014) Seasonal

5 Measuring the Seasonally Hungry 795 million people globally are hungry (FAO, 2015) 70% of the world s poor live in rural areas (World Bank, 2014) Seasonal hunger is likely not just a rural phenomenon Defining & Measuring Seasonal Hunger

Seasonal v. chronic hunger is driven largely by weather patterns Prevalence of severe food insecurity decreases during the rainy season but increases during the dry season (M Kaibi et al.

6 Seasonal v. chronic hunger is driven largely by weather patterns Prevalence of severe food insecurity decreases during the rainy season but increases during the dry season (M Kaibi et al., 2015) Food security is sensitive to rainfall fluctuations (Generoso, 2015) Seasonal v. Chronic Hunger If chronic and seasonal hunger affect different populations and have different drivers, policy solutions may differ Defining & Measuring Seasonal Hunger

Urban & Rural Seasonality Calorie availability changes in both urban and rural areas based on the season (Garrett & Ruel, 1999) Food prices are higher in the months preceding the harvest (Vaitla et

7 Urban & Rural Seasonality Calorie availability changes in both urban and rural areas based on the season (Garrett & Ruel, 1999) Food prices are higher in the months preceding the harvest (Vaitla et al., 2009) Those living in urban areas are less likely to experience seasonal hunger (Barrett, 1996; Becquey et al., 2012) Defining & Measuring Seasonal Hunger

8 Consequences of Seasonal Hunger

Consequences of Seasonal Hunger Eating less (Edeh & Gyimah-Brempong, 2015; Hadley & Patil, 2008; Maxwell, 1996; Mayanja et al., 2015; Rademacher-Schulz et al.

9 Consequences of Seasonal Hunger Eating less (Edeh & Gyimah-Brempong, 2015; Hadley & Patil, 2008; Maxwell, 1996; Mayanja et al., 2015; Rademacher-Schulz et al., 2014) Eating differently (food substitution) (Daie & Woldtsadik, 2015; Edeh & Gyimah-Brempong, 2015; Hadley & Patil, 2008; Maxwell, 1996; Mayanja et al., 2015) Agricultural borrowing Harvest immature crops (Mayanja et al., 2015) Prematurely slaughter livestock (Mayanja et al., 2015) Financial borrowing Borrow food or money to buy food (Edeh & Gyimah- Brempong, 2015; Hadley & Patil, 2008; Maxwell, 1996; Mayanja et al., 2015; Morris et al., 2013; Zug, 2006) Sell assets to purchase food (Mayanja et al., 2015; Rademacher-Schulz et al., 2014; Zug, 2006) Changing household composition (Mayanja et al., 2015) Consequences of Seasonal Hunger

On-Farm Strategies for Reducing Seasonal Hunger Off-season crops (Arimond et al., 2011; Krishnal & Weerahewa, 2014) Early-maturing varieties (Herforth, 2010; Keding & Cogill, 2013; Mburu et al.

10 On-Farm Strategies for Reducing Seasonal Hunger Off-season crops (Arimond et al., 2011; Krishnal & Weerahewa, 2014) Early-maturing varieties (Herforth, 2010; Keding & Cogill, 2013; Mburu et al., 2015; Powell et al., 2015) Crop diversification (Abdalla et al., 2013; Afifi et al., 2015; Bacon et al., 2014; Devereux, 2009; Wispelwey & Deckelbaum, 2010; Vaitla et al., 2012) Consequences of Seasonal Hunger

Crop Diversity, Dietary Diversity, & Nutritional Outcomes Crop diversity is associated with dietary diversity (Benfica & Kilic, 2015; Carletto et al., 2015; Cordero Frison et al., 2011; Graham et al.

11 Crop Diversity, Dietary Diversity, & Nutritional Outcomes Crop diversity is associated with dietary diversity (Benfica & Kilic, 2015; Carletto et al., 2015; Cordero Frison et al., 2011; Graham et al., 2007; Herforth, 2010; Jones et al., 2014; Keding & Cogill, 2013; Salas & Chen, 2015; Snapp & Fisher, 2015; Tasciotti & Wagner, 2014; Torheim et al., 2004; Wispelwey & Deckelbaum, 2010) Dietary diversity is associated with nutritional outcomes (Arimond & Ruel, 2004; Frison et al., 2011; Graham et al., 2007; Hunter & Fanzo, 2013; Johns & Eyzaguirre, 2006; Kirsten et al., 1998; Torheim et al., 2004) Seasonality is associated with nutritional outcomes (Chambers et al., 1981; Devereux et al., 2008; Devereux, 2009; Hillbruner & Egan, 2008; Lambrechts & Barry, 2003; Milgroom & Giller, 2013; Sahn, 1989; Vaitla et al., 2009; Vaitla et al., 2012) Consequences of Seasonal Hunger

12 Income diversification Working in a nonagriculture job (Afifi et al., 2015; Daie & Woldtsadik, 2015; Rademacher-Schulz et al., 2014; Sibhatu et al., 2015a; Zug, 2006) Trading labor for money or food (Mayanja et al., 2015; Zug, 2006) Temporarily migrating in search of work (Afifi et al., 2015; Hadley & Patil, 2008; Maxwell, 1996; Rademacher-Schulz et al., 2014) Off-Farm Strategies for Reducing Seasonal Hunger Consequences of Seasonal Hunger

13 Seasonal and Chronic Hunger in Tanzania and Malawi

LSMS-ISA Data World Bank Living Standards Measurement Study - Integrated Surveys

Integrated Household Panel Survey Panels 1 (2010) and 2 (2013) Panel survey with

Livestock & Fisheries http://siteresources.worldbank.

14 LSMS-ISA Data World Bank Living Standards Measurement Study - Integrated Surveys on Agriculture Tanzania National Panel Survey Panels 2 (2010) and 3 (2012) Malawi Integrated Household Panel Survey Panels 1 (2010) and 2 (2013) Panel survey with detailed data collection on: Household characteristics Agriculture Community Livestock & Fisheries Seasonal and Chronic Hunger in Tanzania and Malawi

15 LSMS Survey Design Tanzania: Multi-stage stratified random sample Primary sampling unit: enumeration areas (EAs) based on 2002 Census Random selection of 8 households per EA Representative at national, urban/rural, and agroecological zone levels 3 panels (2 used in analysis) Panel 2: 3924 households, surveyed between October 2010 and November 2011 Panel 3: 5010 households, surveyed between October 2012 and November 2013 All members of panel households tracked and interviewed Malawi: Two-stage stratified random sample Primary sampling unit: enumeration areas (EAs) based on 2008 Census Random selection of 16 households per EA Representative at national, urban/rural, and regional levels 2 panels Panel 1: households, including 3247 panel households, surveyed between March 2010 and March 2011 Panel 2: 4000 households, surveyed between April 2013 and October 2013 All members of panel households tracked and interviewed Seasonal and Chronic Hunger in Tanzania and Malawi

16 Research Questions In Tanzania and Malawi: 1. Is there seasonal hunger distinct from chronic hunger? 2. Does the prevalence of seasonal hunger differ between urban and rural populations? 3. What explains the variation in seasonal hunger among farmers in these countries? Seasonal and Chronic Hunger in Tanzania and Malawi

17 Results

18 Study Regions Tanzania Malawi % Hungry - Farm 8 (T = 32.1) 63 (T = 20.7) % Hungry Non-Farm 5 46 # Hungry - Farm 519,136 1,808,796 # Hungry Non-Farm 153, ,322 Tanzania Malawi # of Poor People 21,959,317* 10,471,805* % Poor in Population 46.6* 70.9* # of Rural People 35,808,913 14,006,983 % Rural in Population Seasonal and Chronic Hunger in Tanzania and Malawi

19 Tanzania 2012 Hunger by Month Results

20 Malawi 2013 Hunger by Month Results

21 Malawi 2010 Malawi 2013 Tanzania 2010 Tanzania 2012 Hunger Prevalence Farm Non-farm Farm Non-farm Farm Non-farm Farm Non-farm 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Chronic hunger only Both seasonal and chronic hunger Seasonal hunger only No hunger Source: LSMS, Results

22 Methods - Regressions To explore the relationship between seasonal hunger and household farm and non-farm activities, we run following model: Seasonal Hunger ijt = α jt + Marg ijt + X ijt + ε ijt Marg is the Margalef Index, defined as: Marg = (count i 1)/ln(a i ), where count i is the crop count for household i and a i is total land area for household i. Month ijt = α jt + Hunger ijt + X ijt + ε ijt Results

23 Regression Results Seasonal Hunger (Defined at Household) Malawi Tanzania b se b se Margalef index in previous season (planted acres) (0.000) Adult males (0.011) (0.005) Adult females * (0.011) (0.006) Children (age<15) 0.029*** (0.006) 0.006** (0.003) Age of household head (0.001) 0.001*** (0.000) Male household head *** (0.027) ** (0.012) Remittances and gifts (log of total cash received) 0.004* (0.002) (0.001) Acres (log) *** (0.013) (0.005) Value of crops sold (hundred thousands) *** (0.004) ** (0.000) Number of permanent/fruit crops (excluding cassava) 0.014* (0.007) (0.004) Household grows cassava (0.032) (0.010) Number of non-farm enterprises operated (0.016) 0.013** (0.006) Number of wage workers 0.069*** (0.008) (0.005) Bovine (count) * (0.005) (0.001) Goat (count) *** (0.002) (0.001) Pig (count) (0.006) ** (0.002) Poultry (count) (0.001) (0.000) R N Results

24 Malawi Month of First Harvest By Region Results

25 Malawi Regression Results Month of First and Last Harvest Month of first harvest Month of last harvest b se b se Seasonal hunger * (0.046) (0.050) Adult males (0.027) (0.020) Adult females (0.027) (0.027) Children (age<15) *** (0.013) * (0.014) Age of household head 0.003** (0.001) (0.001) Male household head * (0.049) (0.052) Acres planted (log) (0.028) 0.147*** (0.031) Crop count *** (0.023) 0.320*** (0.028) Number of crops sold *** (0.035) (0.029) Value of crops sold (hundred thousands) *** (0.028) *** (0.008) Number of permanent/fruit crops (0.018) 0.091*** (0.025) Remittances and gifts (log of total cash received) (0.005) (0.006) Number of non-farm enterprises operated (0.042) (0.049) Number of wage workers (0.020) (0.020) R N Results

Takeaways: 1. Measurement 2. Difference in what is measured (malnutrition v. hunger), though may be only a temporal distinction 3. Seasonal hunger applies to urban populations also 4.

26 Takeaways: 1. Measurement 2. Difference in what is measured (malnutrition v. hunger), though may be only a temporal distinction 3. Seasonal hunger applies to urban populations also 4. Early harvesting does appear to be a short-run coping strategy 5. Increasing yield may be a less effective strategy than smoothing consumption for the seasonally hungry Preliminary Conclusions arch-portfolio/production-marketing-ofbananas-tree-crops/ Conclusions

27 Evans School Policy Analysis & Research Group (EPAR) Professor C. Leigh Anderson, Principal Investigator Professor Travis Reynolds, co-principal Investigator Margaret Beetstra, Pierre Biscaye, Katie Panhorst Harris, & Josh Merfeld EPAR uses an innovative student-faculty team model to provide rigorous, applied research and analysis to international development stakeholders. Established in 2008, the EPAR model has since been emulated by other UW schools and programs to further enrich the international development community and enhance student learning. Please direct comments or questions about this research to Principal Investigators C. Leigh Anderson and Travis Reynolds at

28 Summary Statistics - Weighted Malawi Tanzania Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 2 Wave 3 b/se b/se b/se b/se Seasonal hunger (excluding chronically hungry) (0.012) (0.011) (0.003) (0.004) Margalef index in previous season (planted acres) ( ) ( ) Adult males (0.023) (0.022) (0.028) (0.026) Adult females (0.022) (0.023) (0.021) (0.021) Children (age<15) (0.042) (0.048) (0.055) (0.055) Age of household head (0.503) (0.379) (0.474) (0.431) Male household head (0.013) (0.011) (0.012) (0.011) Acres (log) (0.036) (0.038) (0.045) (0.048) Value of crops sold (hundred thousands) (0.019) Number of permanent/fruit crops (0.051) Remittances and gifts (log of total cash received - MK) (0.148) Number of non-farm enterprises operated (0.015) Number of wage workers (0.035) (0.031) (0.017) (0.026) Bovine (count) (0.064) (0.032) (0.101) (0.114) Goat (count) (0.096) (0.096) (0.206) (0.168) Sheep (count) (0.008) (0.010) (0.234) (0.095) Pig (count) (0.059) (0.053) (0.041) Poultry (count) (0.196) (0.172) (0.382) (0.365) Equine (count) (0.000) (0.003) (0.041) Observations (0.053) (0.053) (0.141) (0.021) (0.164) (0.055) (0.028) (0.019) (0.219) (0.050) (0.138) (0.019)

29 Hunger Defined Dec-Mar Malawi Tanzania b se b se Margalef index in previous season (planted acres) (0.000) Adult males (0.011) (0.008) Adult females * (0.012) (0.009) Children (age<15) 0.029*** (0.006) 0.012*** (0.004) Age of household head (0.001) 0.001** (0.001) Male household head *** (0.026) *** (0.020) Remittances and gifts (log of total cash received) (0.002) (0.002) Acres (log) *** (0.013) (0.007) Value of crops sold (hundred thousands) *** (0.004) *** (0.001) Number of permanent/fruit crops (excluding cassava) (0.008) (0.007) Household grows cassava (0.032) * (0.016) Number of non-farm enterprises operated (0.016) (0.010) Number of wage workers 0.085*** (0.007) 0.060*** (0.009) Bovine (count) * (0.006) (0.002) Goat (count) *** (0.003) *** (0.001) Pig (count) (0.006) ** (0.005) Poultry (count) (0.001) ** (0.000) R N

30 Postharvest Loss (Dec-Mar) Percent of maize farmers experiencing postharvest loss of maize, by hunger status No hunger Seasonal Chronic Both Malawi Tanzania Results

Productivity Gains and Cropland Allocation at the Extensive and Intensive Margins: Maize Yields and Land Use Choices in Tanzania

Productivity Gains and Cropland Allocation at the Extensive and Intensive Margins: Maize Yields and Land Use Choices in Tanzania Travis W. Reynolds & Joanna Keel Environmental Studies Program Colby College