Food Security Challenge in the Context of Climate Change

Transcription

1 Food Security Challenge in the Context of Climate Change Bruce Campbell, Director CGIAR Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)

2 Outline 1. The global challenges 2. Looking for solutions 3. Conclusions

3 Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change Business as usual in our globally interconnected food system will not bring us food security and environmental sustainability The window of opportunity to avert a humanitarian, environmental and climate crisis is rapidly closing Beddington et al. (2012) Science 335:

4 Food security challenge

5 A billion people go hungry Another billion suffer nutrient deficiencies Another billion over-consume In 15 years there will be another billion people to feed

6 Major shifts in diet as the world gets wealthier Meat 5 consumption (log per 4 capita) Wealth (log per capita GNP) 10 IFPRI, FAO, ILRI: Livestock to 2020

7 100% (+/- 11%) more food by 2050 with current trajectories of diets & populations Tilman et al 2011 Proc. National Academy Science

8 Adaptation challenge

9 Thornton et al. (2010) Proc. National Academy Science Length of growing season is likely to decline.. To 2090, taking 14 climate models Four degree rise Length of growing period (%) >20% loss 5-20% loss No change 5-20% gain >20% gain

10 % price increase Nelson et al., 2010 Food prices are likely to increase Maize Rice Wheat

11 % price increase Nelson et al., 2010 IFPRI Climate change will add greatly to price increases Maize Rice Wheat

12 Impact of weather shocks Oxfam (2012) based on D. Willenbockel (2012)

13 Historical impacts on wheat ( ) Changes in growing season temperature % Yield impact for wheat China India US Russia France Global Lobell et al (2011)

14 ource: Munich RE NatCatSERVICE Weather catastrophes US$ billion (2010 values) Overall losses Insured losses

15 Environmental challenge

16 Vermeulen et al Annual Review of Environment and Resources (in press) 19-29% global GHGs from food systems

17 80-86% of GHGs from food systems come from agriculture UK China 2 6 Agriculture Transport & packaging Primary & secondary processing Retail & catering 686 Domestic food management 18 Waste disposal Fertilizer manufacture Vermeulen et al (UK data from Garnett 2011) Annual Review of Environment and Resources (in press)

18 Emissions by agricultural activity 3500,0 3000,0 2500,0 2000,0 1500,0 1000,0 Other, largely burning Rice cultivation Manure management Enteric fermentation Agricultural soils Indirect emissions 500,0 0,0 USA & Canada Latin America Sub-Saharan Africa China South and Southeast Asia Vermeulen et al Annual Review of Environment and Resources (in press)

19 Role of Agriculture Ocean acidification Nitrogen cycle Safe operating space Climate change Phosphorous cycle Biodiversity loss Change in land use Global freshwater use Current status Rockström et al. (2009); Bennett et al. (in prep.)

20 2) Looking for solutions

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22 Identify and develop pro-poor adaptation and mitigation practices, technologies and policies for agriculture and food systems. Support the inclusion of agricultural issues in climate change policies, and of climate issues in agricultural policies, at all levels. Commit to partnerships, data availability, cross-center cooperation, and making an impact from global to local levels.

23 The CCAFS Framework Adapting Agriculture to Climate Variability and Change Technologies, practices, partnerships and policies for: 1. Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change 2. Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk 3. Pro-poor Climate Change Mitigation 4. Integration for Decision Making Improved Environmental Health Improved Rural Livelihoods Improved Food Security Linking Knowledge with Action Assembling Data and Tools for Analysis and Planning Refining Frameworks for Policy Analysis Enhanced adaptive capacity in agricultural, natural resource management, and food systems

24 A Regional Approach:

25 Some examples from CCAFS in our quest for solutions 1. Ensuring that the research is user driven 2. New approaches to partnership and collaboration 3. Focusing on women farmers 4. Farms of the future 5. Breeding for 2030 climates 6. Scaling up climate information services 7. Measuring GHGs in smallholder systems 8. Incentives for smallholder mitigation 9. Working with global policy makers 10.Regional scenarios

26 1. User-driven agendas: East Africa Regional Learning Partnership Platform launched in April, National workshops - Setting policy and research priorities Participatory action research across 5 sites

27 2. Partnership/collaboration: the baseline Household, village and organisational 36 sites, 252 villages, with 5,040 households in 12 countries and 3 regions Better understanding of local and regional differences to guide selection of best-bet technologies and institutional options Clarifies social differentiation of access to natural resources and infrastructure through participatory interpretation of satellite imagery Formal baseline for future program assessment More than 20 partners Six CGIAR organisations Open access data six months after field collection Dataverse:

28 Months of food shortage per yr Rainfall, food shortages, enterprise diversity How far can adaptation go in such systems when will other livelihood strategies be needed under particular scenarios? Then, what are the implications for GHG emissions? Rufino et al. (2012)

29 3. Focussing on women farmers Climate-related shocks have had much greater negative impacts on women than men Women have less access to climate information than men Women crucial for food security when have more power, access and earnings, then more income allocated to food, child nutrition and education

30 4. Farms of of the future The Analogue tool

31 Farms of the future Run Analogues Protocol Beora (Nepal) Journey to Beora s plausible futures Blog story:

32 5. Breeding for 2030 climates Changes in Beans Suitability Average global area of suitability for growing beans may be reduced by 6.6% by 2020 But wide range of change in suitability across regions.

33 Potential breeding strategies Breeding drought resistance into bean 3.9 million ha of current bean area more suitable 6.7 million ha currently not suitable would be suitable Breeding heat tolerance into bean 7.2 million ha of current bean area more suitable Increase highly suitable areas by some 54%

34 Agtrials: Assembling public data in a common portal 20 crops 2483 trials Calibrates and validates crop models Indicates adaptation options: Genetic improvement, on-farm management, etc. Improves access to technology transfer options

35 6. Scaling up climate information services Climate information to farmers in Mali National Met Service, WMO, ACMAD Forecasts provided for three days, ten days, and seasonal (inc. crop health...) Major increases in yields for participating farmers

36 Learning lessons from Mali agri-met services South-South learning Scaling up across the Sahel

37 7. Measuring GHGs in smallholder systems (Kitale Kenya Ag. C Project) tco ABMS/ SALM Methodology EX-ACT (project values) EX-ACT (default values) Cool Farm Tool Trees - biomass Trees - SOC Residue Composting - management - SOC Seebauer 2012 SOC 37

38 Developing a shared protocol for GHG emissions Scale and boundaries Landscapes Farming systems Knowledge generation & information exchange Management & activity data Plot Linking to yields and food security Mixed production systems Measurement equipment ICRAF, ILRI, IRRI, FAO, University of Hohenheim, Global Research Alliance for Agricultural Greenhouse Gasses CP

39 GHG & Ecosystem Service Markets Policy Assessments Inventories Geographic Databases Measurement Networks Remote Sensing Data Models

40 Climate, food and farming research network (CLIFF) Call for proposals PhD research grants on climate change mitigation in smallholder agriculture

41 8. Incentives for smallholder mitigation e.g. Carbon market benefits (Action research with 4 NGOs, E. Africa) Real benefits from yields, not selling C credits, only US$2-10; mitigation is co-benefit Women better able to benefit where contracts were signed with small groups, did not require land ownership, trainings targeted at women. Farmers need suites of enabling conditions and larger institutional frameworks to support start-up costs

42 9. Linking with global policy processes Bringing together 500+ policy-makers, farmers, scientists and development experts Reaching 600,000 through social media Not a stand-alone event

43 Qualitative: narratives, conceptual models, images, videos Quantitative: graphs, maps, interactive models 10. Regional scenarios & visioning Exploring interacting socio-economic and climate uncertainties regarding food, environments and livelihoods with regional policy makers, private sector, civil society, media, researchers Scenarios: alternate plausible futures to help understand key uncertainties we need to deal with and evaluate the feasibility of policies, strategies, technologies to do with adaptation, risk management, pro-poor mitigation

44 Proactive governance Reactive governance Industrious Ants + Wide range of benefits for food security, environments and livelihoods - difficult international relations; costly battle with corruption, challenges of being competitive with crops and products aimed at domestic markets Regional integration Herd of Zebra + Region reaches out to international markets: economic boom - Trade-off with food security and environment, not sustainable economically; dependency on service and industrial markets; new vehicles for corruption sap effectiveness + Visionary action by individual orgs, initiatives facilitated by governments - Winners and losers world, uncoordinated trade and shared resources, instability, selfishness, fallings out; corruption prevents coordination Lone Leopards + Massive public mobilizations, international investments, informal trade, personal and community psychological resilience - No win-win, latent capacity and wasted opportunities, revolutions that lead nowhere. Leaders making money through crises. Sleeping Lions Fragmented status quo

45 Proactive governance Reactive governance Regional integration Fragmented status quo

46 Strategic futures: scenarios Example: National sovereignty fears holding back achievement of a vision of a more integrated and competitive East African Community Quantified for each scenario using IMPACT and GLOBIOM: GDP Yields, production costs, prices, trade measures for crops and livestock Area change for a range of arable land types and livestock production systems Forest and other non-agricultural land cover change Various indicators for quantity and quality of water systems Infrastructure change Effects of IT developments Indicators for livelihoods and social capital

47 An example: cassava under one East African scenario Industrious Ants Scenario: EA moves towards regional political and economic integration State and non-state actors take a proactive stance towards food security, environment and livelihoods Cassava: Could be an important crop for adaptation more productive under rising temperatures and has unrivalled drought resistance. Under the Ants scenario, cassava production costs decrease by 50% and yields increase by 30% plus high demand - a climate smart crop, compared to scenario with no regional integration and a reactive stance ( sleeping lions ) low demand, and cassava functions as a food security crop

48 Household & community-level modelling Impact-household Data collection protocol Climate Family structure Land management Livestock management Labour allocation Family s dietary pattern Farm s sales and expenses Mitigation practices Broad context provided by the regional scenarios Impacts on key outcomes of different adaptation options Hybrids of systems dynamics, mathematical programming, agent-based models Some development work needed: moving towards a small community of practice

49 3) Conclusions

50 For food insecure people, need actions on Rights & entitlements Economic opportunities Food availability Safety nets Access to services Political voice

51 Adaptive capacity Income & assets Technology Infrastructure Governance & institutions Knowledge & skills Social capital Access to information

52 Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change Global food demand (Peta cal/day) Reducing the demand Improving production Avoiding food losses and waste Supply could go down if no action, combined with climate change Brian Keating, 2010, pers comm.

53 PhD Network (?) Common topic: E.g. Institutional arrangements for enhancing adaptive capacity E.g. Transforming food systems c. 30 PhD students from institutions (>50% developing country) Research grants (c. $5000) and logistical support Networking possibilities (supervision, peer support, min. 2 face-to-face meetings) Practical outcomes CCAFS sites

54 Incremental change insufficient

55 Thank you (sign up for bulletins)