Gordon Food Service Market Updates for July 20, 2018

Transcription

1 Gordon Food Service Market Updates for July 20, 2018 Dairy Cheese The CME Block and Barrel Markets have had most of its activity in the Barrel Category. The amount of trades have shown that a supplier or several is unloading a lot of barrel product on the trading floor. Providing a supply over demand environment driving the price down.speculators are unsurehow long this will lastbut the block market is holding in a tighter wheresupply is not that great over demand. Last week: Block-Down Barrel-Down This Week: Block-Down Barrel-Up Dairy Eggs

2 Retail demand fair at best. Supplies of extra large thru smalls readily available. Market weak Last week: Large - Down Medium - Down Small - Down This Week: Large - Down Medium - Down Small - Down Dairy Butter Butter supplies are more than adequate to meet the current demand.production seems to be slowing a bit but will soon again increase to meet upcoming school and holiday needs. Exports continue to be strong as pricing remains competitive. Last week: Butter - Down This Week: Butter - Up Grocery & Bakery Wheat

3 Winter wheat harvest is nearing completion and the spring wheat crop is looking great. Bread flour prices are back to last year's levels; pizza and pasta flour are now below where there were a year ago. Grocery & Bakery Soybean Oil This years soybean crop is also looking very good. Soybean processing is running flat out to keep up with soybean meal demandcreating surplus supplies of soybean oil. Soybean oil prices are at ten-year lows. Grocery & Bakery Sugar The USDA reduced its forecast for fall cane production which is supporting prices. Forward bookings continue at 10% discount to current beet sugar prices with processors now 50% sold for the 2018/19 crop. Meat Beef Mid-summer is often a period of slow demand as heat discourages cooking and grilling. After surging in June as importers raced to avoid upcoming tariffsexports have also slowed down. If boxed beef starts to back uppackers will reduceoutput to support prices. Ground Beef: Ample supplies of trimmings and round cuts continue to pressure ground beef prices lower. Ribs: Rib prices may be approaching mid-summer lows as retailers start loading up for Labor Day promotions. Briskets:

4 Brisket prices continue to adjust lower but we are seeing the large forward sales that often signal an upcoming price recovery. Rounds: Round prices appear to have made their lows with a significant new sales into export and ground beef channels. Strips: Packers forward sold strips and short loins for Labor Day at 5-10% discounts to the current market. Cash prices continue to slip. Tenders: Tenderprices are down so far this month but Labor Day features may provide some support. Thin Meats: Slower demand should begin to pressuresirloin prices, including ball-tips. Skirtandflank steak prices are starting to slip. Meat Pork Hog markets plummeted after the latest USDA survey showed larger-than-expected expansion. Tariffs on pork imports in China and Mexico have also been a pricedepressing factor. Butts: Butt prices often adjustlower as production increases later in July. Tariffs lower the cost level that will trigger foreign buying. Hams: Ham exports provide a home for a large percentage of U.S. output. New tariffs are slowing export sales and pushing ham prices to 5-year lows. Bacon/Bellies:

5 Belly prices are on the same uptrend as usual for this time of year. Prices peaked between mid-july and early August in each of the last three years. Ribs: Sparerib and backribprices dipped after July 4th. We should see prices recover when we get closer to Labor Day. Loins: Bone-in and boneless loin prices are coming under pressure as production increases and exports slow. Poultry Chicken Whole bird/cut-up chicken supplies have increasedbut are clearing now that prices have adjusted lower. Breast and Tenders: Jumbo breast meat prices dipped after July 4th but seem to be steadying out. Prices often strengthen as we get closer to Labor Day. Tenders are still being shown at small discounts. Wings: Processors are getting higher prices for limited offerings of jumbo wings. Medium and small wings are much more available, often at discounts to jumbos. Dark Meat: Jumbo leg quarters have leveled out after a banner month of exports to Mexico. Leg and thigh meat supplies continue to be limited by labor shortages; prices are well supported. Poultry Turkey

6 Whole turkey prices have inched higher as processors dial production back. Buyers are starting to come back to the market. Seafood Finfish Cod, Alaskan 1x: Alaskan A season opened in January but supply remains tight and costs have firmed, this is partly due to decreased quota in other regions of the world. Costs have remained elevated and are expected to remain this way through the end of the year. Cod, Atlantic 1x: The 1x frozen cod loins are firming on costs withthe announcement of a 25% reduction on quota compared to2017 out of the Newfoundland and Labradorregions in Canada. As the season resumed in Junethe first shipments are arriving biweekly.note the start of the season has yieldedmore of the largersizedloins,but withadded shipmentswill rampup supply to cover all needs as the seasonprogresses, especially theprime 4 oz loin. Cod, Atlantic 2x: Fishing in Northern Europe has concluded.total catch this season ispoor and raw material is in short supply for2018 until early 2019 when fishing resumes. Cod, Pacific 2x: Heavy restrictions on total allowable catch in certain Alaskan fishing grounds. Raw material is now more expensive than Atlantic Cod and expected to firm continuously for all of Pollock, Atlantic 1x: Costs have softened slightly on some sizesof the 1x fzpollock but mostremain steady as we are now in the summer season. Many anticipated with the rising cost of Cod that Pollock would be the next lower cost option.for the most part that "switch" has not materialized to the degree first thought.

7 Pollock, Pacific 2x: Slight firming of pricing. Starting to see substitution demand from cod users. Haddock: Raw material prices firming due to the cheapest ground fish compared to Pacific and Atlantic Cod. Continued substitutions from cod consumers driving up demand and cost.available raw material is in short supply. Domestic Lake Fish: The Lake Erie commercial fishery is well underway and costs have softened as supply is readily available.expectprices to levelout over the next few weeks for the rest of the summer. Euro Lake Fish & Zander: Supply is good and costs have been stable with only minoradjustments to market.this is a more cost effective substitute for the higher priced domestic lake fish items where applicable. Mahi Mahi: The S American Mahi Mahiseason began last fall and costs have softened compared to the same time last year.prices have adjusteddownward and are expected tostabilize for most of the summer grilling season where current supply is plentiful. Typically the springseasonbrings added containersfromtaiwan, but reportsnow indicate that they are having a poor start with reduced catches, yieldingless overall supply available to enter the market. Frozen Tuna, Swordfish : Frozen tuna harvests out of Vietnamare considered stable for this year with supply listed as normal. Productout of Indonesia has been slow to materialize and therefore has put added pressure on the product out of Vietnam.The Thailandseason has ended.expect prices to continueto be stable for the summer grilling season with only a uptick expected on the smaller 4 oz sizeof tuna with supply being tighter on thissize.swordfish has also started to firm on the 6 and 8 oz portions, supply has been tight.

8 Swai: Cost fingerlings increased after Chinese New Year instead when market expected a drop. US trade commission assesses preliminary higher duty rates in Swai. Prices firm with short supply until end of 2018/early Tilapia: Low production during this time of the year. Prices recently firmed. Seafood Shrimp Imported Black Tiger: Black Tiger shrimp prices are stable and supply is good on small and middle sizes. There are shortages of large sizes due to limited production (2-4 through 13-15) and heavy demand. Imported White: White shrimp supply is somewhat sporadic with shipments being late due to heavy demand overseas. Market values are good and offer great opportunities to menu shrimp this summer. Expect supply to be better as we roll into the late summer months as production catches up. Latin White: Latin White shrimp are firm with replacement prices firming. Supply is good for the time being. Domestic White & Brown: Domestic Brown shrimp are steady in price as we roll into the new season for Texas. Larger sizes of white and brown headless shrimp should begin to land over the next few months. Domestic PUD:

9 Domestic PUD production has slowed on smaller shrimp. While boats begin to target larger whites and browns where available, we should see better production in larger and middle size peeled shrimp. Domestic Rock & Pink: Rock & Pink shrimp are both in good supply. Seafood Lobster North Atlantic: The season for N AtlanticLobsters formally began May 1st outof Canada.Initially the expectationwas for costs to soften as supply became more readilyavailable but the harvest to date hasyielded the predominately smaller sizesof 3/4 and 4/5 with limited offeringsof the 5/6 tailsand larger. This in addition to less thanfavorable weather and the recent announcement of 10 fishing zones being closed to preserve the right whale, hasnow put pressure on supply as the Canadian fishing seasonwraps up on June 30.As a result of the closures impacting fishermen for both crab and lobster, the CanadianDept of Fisheries has offeredlobster-men innew Brunswick and Quebec a fall fishing season to make up for the right whale closures.for now costs are firmwith adequate supply. Note:It is still unclear what the ramificationof PresidentTrump's 25% tariff on US seafood sold to China will entailfor the Maine lobster fishermen,and the overall market,as they typically ramp up harvests in late July into August.As these go intoeffect this month,no one can be certain of the impact it will have on the volume ofproductbeing shipped to China.Only time will tell. Warm Water: Costs have adjusted slightly as the new season out of Brazil has resumed.first indications are that costs will befirm.due to the N Atlantic high prices this season, many switched to the lower cost WW tails.as a result they are keeping costs elevated to capture their market share.if this can sustain itself long term,will remain to be seen.

10 Seafood Crab Snow Crab: The global shortage of snow crab will continue in 2018 forthe Canadian season.prices recently have startedto see someleveling off.costsare still very firm and it does not look like there will be any relief in sight at least for the larger 8 up and 10 up sizes.it is hard to predict this year if there will be any settlingdown or concessionson costlater in the year. Some feel there could be a correction on the smaller 5/8 but that is uncertainas well. King Crab: Smallerking crab sizes remain very tight, especially on 14/17 ct, 16/20 ct and 20/+ ct. Thesethree sizes haveseen the biggest issue with availability and as a result costs are firming.they are still fishing for Russian crab but most is movingto theasian market.we do not expect any relief on supply or cost at least for the next 4-6weeks. Seafood Scallops The scallop season has begun one month later in April for the 2018 season and boats have made a mad dash to get started. With the announcement of newly opened restricted areas and an overall increase in quota,costs are continuing to adjustlower.supply is currently adequate on all sizes.