MARKET TRENDS

Transcription

1 FARMER S REPORT MARKET TRENDS This notice is subject to change. Information printed is based on last received market data. Subject to change without notification US Foods, Inc All rights reserved.

2 PRODUCE All wet vegetable suppliers have transitioned out of Yuma and into the Salinas growing region. Some vendors will continue to harvest in Huron for the next couple of weeks. The quality of wet veg commodities varies by item and supplier due to recent rain in the Salinas growing region, which has also significantly slowed harvesting. US Foods romaine lettuce suppliers have transitioned out of Yuma, and are no longer harvesting or processing product out of that growing region. KEY Anticipating an up market Anticipating a steady market Anticipating a down market VEGETABLES POTATOES Russet: The market on russets is up this week out of Washington/Oregon and Idaho on the Burbank variety. Most suppliers have transitioned out of the Norkotah variety and into the Burbank. Reds: The red potato market is steady this week out of all growing regions, including product out of Washington, North Dakota and Florida. Yellows: The markets out of both Florida and California are steady. Quality is good with moderate supply and demand. CABBAGE Round Green: The cabbage market is flat this week, with supplies lower. Demand is high. LEAF LETTUCE Green Leaf: The green leaf market is up this week, with supplies normal. Quality has been good, with no issues being reported. Demand is steady. Romaine: The romaine lettuce market is flat this week. Regarding romaine out of Yuma: Our romaine suppliers have transitioned out of Yuma, and are no longer harvesting or processing product out of that growing region. Romaine supplies out of Salinas are light to moderate with good demand. ICEBERG LETTUCE The iceberg lettuce market is up this week. Quality in Salinas is variable, with some reports of misshapen heads and light weights, which is limiting availability of our Cross Valley Farms branded product. With spring approaching, demand has started to pick up. GARLIC Orders have increased for California peeled garlic, as there is ample supply and good quality. Chinese peeled garlic pricing remains strong, and supplies are tight. Garlic out of Mexico is making its way into Texas, and garlic out of Spain has made it into larger markets. ONIONS The jumbo yellow onion market is up this week out of Washington/Oregon, Idaho and Mexico. Supplies are steady, with moderate demand out of both growing regions. 2 CHILE PEPPERS The chile pepper market is steady this week. Supplies continue to be on the lighter side for jalapeños and poblanos. Quality is being reported as good. CILANTRO The cilantro market is mixed this week. Product out of Oxnard is up while the product out of Central Coast (California) is down. There are lighter supplies this week. CUCUMBERS Cool temperatures and rain have slowed production in the East. In the West, markets are up due to demand rising from the short supply in the east. SQUASH Yellow Squash: Eastern squash prices are rising, as quality is suffering due to the weather conditions. Major wind and rain have overwhelmed the crop with wind scarring and bruising. Western squash has good supply, but the cooler temperatures are slowing production. Western quality is mostly good, with some scarring and scuffing. GREEN BEANS The green bean market is up this week out of all growing regions. Hand- and machine-picked product out of Florida is up. Supply and demand are lighter out of Florida. Imported haricot verts and hand-picked green beans out of Mexico are also up, with lighter supplies. EGGPLANT Supply has slowed in the East. Western supply is ramping up. Quality is good and prices are steady. BELL PEPPERS Green: Prices are coming down as supply increases and quality improves in the East. Both Mexico and California have good supply right now on green bells, and now is a good time to promote. Red: Red pepper supply is slowing down a bit in Mexico, which is driving the market up slightly. Quality is still good. TOMATOES Rounds: Round tomatoes are down on all sizes and growing regions this week. Florida supply is good, and Mexico is improving as spring crop ramps up. Baja will start around May. Quality is excellent. Cherry: Cherry tomatoes are steady to down this week. Florida supplies are plentiful, while Mexico has limited supply. West Coast vendors are purchasing from Florida due to the poor quality coming out of Mexico. Grape: Grape tomato supply is good, which is driving prices down this week. Good weather in Mexico has made transition very successful. Quality is excellent out of both growing regions. Romas: Romas are steady this week. Both Mexico and Florida have abundant supply and quality is excellent.

3 PRODUCE CARROTS The jumbo carrot market is mixed this week. Product out of California and South Georgia is steady while product out of Mexico is down. There continues to be a wide range in quality coming out of Mexico. CELERY The celery market is down this week, with supplies steady. Demand is steady, and quality is good. GREEN ONIONS The green onion market is mixed this week. Product out of South Carolina is steady, while product out of Mexico is down on medium size and up on small size. Supply and demand are moderate this week. CAULIFLOWER The cauliflower market is up this week. Crop is coming out of Salinas now, and quality is good. Supplies are down, and overall demand is decent. ASPARAGUS The asparagus market is down this week out of Mexico and especially California. Supplies and quality are better, with lighter demand. BROCCOLI The broccoli market is up, with moderate supplies and good demand. MUSHROOMS The industry as a whole is seeing better supplies on white mushrooms. TROPICAL PINEAPPLES Pineapple prices continue to be steady. There are still limited volumes for 7 ct. and 8 ct., which has caused a shift in demand to 6 ct. The 6 ct. saw the largest price increase. Quality of the fruit remains good, even during limited supplies. BANANAS The banana market is steady this week with strong supply. Quality is excellent. AVOCADOS Markets are steady to up this week. Demand is strong on 48s and 60s. California is expected to start increasing in supply for the next few weeks. Demand will steadily increase as we move closer towards Cinco de Mayo. MELONS CANTALOUPE The cantaloupe market is down this week. There are better supplies on 9 ct. and 12 ct. The market has adjusted to lower levels as supplies have increased. The overall market is steady. Quality is good. HONEYDEW The honeydew market is up this week. Supplies remain limited, and this has kept the market higher. Quality has been good, apart from the whitefly issue. Honeydew size profile has been split between 5 ct. and 6 ct., and will continue the same way for the entire month of April. 3

4 PRODUCE BERRIES RASPBERRIES Raspberries continue to be limited. The domestic harvest has yet to ramp up. Mexico remains the primary source, but they have passed their peak. Demand continues to exceed supply. Prices are higher. The shortage will continue until the California growing regions start up. STRAWBERRIES The strawberry market is down this week. Rain in the Salinas and Watsonville area caused late harvesting for some shippers. Oxnard is reporting good volumes with fair quality. Supply out of Santa Maria is good to fair, with good quality fruit. We are expecting better supplies next week. GRAPES The grape market is mixed this week, depending on the variety and size. Crimson seedless, white seedless and Autumn Royal are down on XL and large. White seedless are up on XL and large. Red Globes are down. Quality on red seedless is good. Green seedless quality has stabilized. BLUEBERRIES Domestic blueberry production continues to improve gradually. There are better supplies from California. Quality is being reported as good, and there is a consistent demand. Prices have stayed on the higher side. Mexico has remained consistent with good quality, and prices are lower. BLACKBERRIES Production has slowed down. Mexico is now past the spring peak production period, and volume is lower. Supplies are slowly declining until the start of domestic harvest. There may be a supply gap. Market prices will be higher. CITRUS LEMONS Market prices are stable and there are good supplies of 165 s and larger. There is better supply of Choice grade. ORANGES Navel 113 s and smaller are extremely tight. There are good supplies of 72 s and larger in the Choice grade. Navels will be available until mid-june. Valencias will pick up in mid-may. LIMES Larger-sized fruit supply is very tight, while the 200, 230, and 250 dropped more than last week. Expect the price to continue to decrease on those sizes. So far, quality is very good. HANGING FRUIT APPLES & PEARS Apples: The Northwest crop remains steady. Gala and Golden Delicious markets are steady to slightly down this week, depending on the growing region. All other varieties are stable. Demand is moderate and quality is good. Pears: The pear market remains stable. Green and red D Anjou and Bosc are available. The small end of pears remains tight, while larger sizing remains constant. 4

5 BEEF Cattle exchanged hands in the South Region at $1.17, while the North Region reported cattle bought at $1.22. The live cattle market is being viewed as mostly steady this week. Federally inspected slaughter was reported at 605K head, which is down 10,000 head from the previous week, and production levels for this week are expected to climb back up between 614K to 620K head. Out-front slaughters are expected to be in the levels around 640K head range by the end of May. Cattle continues to grade very well, with carcass weights trending about even. Heavy discounting continues to spill over to this week as packers continue to move out supplies, making space for the expected rapidly increasing slaughter levels. The cutout is expected to stabilize in the coming weeks, as demand increases for middle meats as we approach the grilling season. GRINDS GROUND BEEF 81/19: Blended grinds reversed course this week, with modest declines from the previous week. The market remained soft this week, but is expected to exhibit seasonal gains as we enter May, just in time for grilling season. GROUND CHUCK: Ground chuck held steady this week, as raw material becomes more abundant on soft demand. Better weather in advance of the grilling season should support pricing as we enter May, with modest gains anticipated. ROUNDS PEELED KNUCKLES: Peeled knuckles advanced slightly, with modest increases across all grades. It is not out of the question for more declines to occur seasonally, with further retracement expected into late spring/early summer. INSIDE ROUNDS: With heavy demand in place, we saw a moderate increase on the Choice grade, while the Select grade reported down slightly. Excellent forward orders on XT Insides indicate retailers are going to feature this item heavily, and this should provide some seasonal support to pricing late spring/early summer. BOTTOM ROUND FLATS: Bottom round flats continue to report modest declines, and the market remains soft, with further retracement into mid/late May. EYES OF ROUND: Eyes continue to trade lower and will remain soft, with retracement anticipated into mid/late May. RIBS RIBEYES: Discounts were needed to clear inventories on Choice and Select light ribs. Ungraded garnered a higher price on limited supplies, while the select grade continues to be an issue for the beef supplier, with excessive inventories leading to moderate declines. Modest advances are expected moving into summer. As with the light ribs, all grades of heavy ribs were discounted to move burdensome supplies. Downside risk is limited, with market advances expected the closer we get to Memorial Day. CHUCKS CHUCK ROLLS: All grades of chuck rolls declined on greater supplies, due to cattle grade and declining exports. Modest declines are anticipated through summer. TERES MAJORS: Teres Major ended the week mixed, with the market firm this week on good demand, even though the chuck market is falling. Teres Major is expected to eventually drift off well into summer. BRISKETS: Briskets declined as expected, as more product becomes available to the spot market. Modest to moderate declines are anticipated into the beginning of May. THIN MEATS BALL TIPS: Ball tips were discounted heavily on the Choice grade to move supplies. The market remains weak, with peak seasonal demand concluded. Pricing should stabilize after the big market correction. FLAP MEAT: Flap is starting to soften, with most of the shipments concluded for Cinco de Mayo, but pricing is still well above expectations. The market remains soft, with more product becoming available to the market, and discounts are noted as of this report. FLANK: All grades of flank steaks reported down modestly, and the market remains soft. Further retracement remains a possibility into mid-may. SKIRT STEAK: Outside skirt rebounded from last week s close and reported moderately up in price. Moderate declines are expected into and through summer. LOINS STRIPS: Choice strips rebounded from the previous week s low with moderate increases, while Select grade strips continue to struggle, with lower costs based on supplier availability. The BBQ demand will improve, which will support higher pricing in the coming weeks. There remains some downside risk, but it is considered limited. Pricing is at a level which should garner interest from buyers seeking product for early spring. TOP BUTTS: Choice grade top butts continue to move modestly higher, while the Select grade moved lower with a modest decrease. Sirloins are viewed as having some downside risk in the coming weeks. Lower price levels could entice buyers back into the market as the other middles gain value seasonally. TENDERLOINS: Packers, out of alignment on inventory, continue to discount tenders of all grades substantially to move supplies. The market remains soft, with further discounts seen this week. The market is very close to the bottom, and we should see higher prices as we enter May. 5

6 PORK Last week the USDA reported harvest levels of almost 2.38 MM hogs, well above year-ago levels, due to the timing of the 2017 Easter holiday. This week, with daily hog slaughter numbers reaching record levels, weekly harvest is projected to come in about 3.5% above year-ago levels. Analysts expect weekly harvest numbers to begin their seasonal move lower starting late April through August. In addition, hog weights are expected to move lower, week over week, from late April through August. Commodity pork demand was nonexistent last week, but is expected to pick up this week, as retailers look to book product for May features. Export demand remains fairly steady and is running above year-ago levels; however, export business tends to taper off during the spring and summer months. In general, as May approaches, domestic pork demand is expected to ramp up in anticipation of warmer temperatures and grilling season. Overall, expect higher commodity pork prices during May. Lastly, the trade war with China remains in the headlines, especially with pork being a key bargaining chip. Chinese tariffs were already in effect at 12-20%, but now they have increased an additional 25%. While impacts are likely, keep in mind that only slightly over 1% of all US pork production, specifically muscle-cuts, are shipped to China. Also, with regard to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), sources indicate that a deal with Canada and Mexico may be possible by early May if participants come to an agreement. This is important because Mexico imports more hams from the US than any other country. For 2017, Mexico represented 32% of total US pork exports. LOINS Last week, due to lack of demand, loin prices, both bone-in and boneless, traded lower for the seventh week in a row. Prices have firmed and are moving higher in early-week trades, as retailers book pork loins to feature in their May promotions. Loin prices are expected to continue moving higher during May, as retailers ramp up their pork chop promotions for grilling season. TENDERS Pork tenderloin prices took significant declines last week, as ample supplies and nonexistent demand pressured prices to their seasonal lows. Overall demand for tenderloins is typically erratic this time of year, and heavily dependent on retail features. Prices are higher in early-week trade, and are expected to continue moving higher during May, as retailers ramp up for Memorial Day promotions. BUTTS Pork butt prices came in lower last week, pressured by ample supplies and a lack of both domestic and export demand. Prices have firmed and are moving higher in early-week trade as retailers line up product for May and Memorial Day promotions. As warmer temperatures and summer demand kick in, pork butt prices may show significant week-over-week price increases. Pork butt prices are projected higher through late May. RIBS Pricing for the rib complex was mixed last week, with back ribs moving higher and spareribs trading lower. Prices remain mixed in early-week trades, with back ribs moving higher, supported by retail features, foodservice demand, and packer freezer programs. Meanwhile, spareribs are trading lower early-week, as packers have fulfilled their freezer commitments and supplies of fresh product are available for immediate ship. Heavier hog weights continue to impact the availability of light ribs. Rib pricing is expected to trade steady to higher through May as warmer temperatures accelerate demand. BELLIES/BACON Belly prices continued to move lower last week and are continuing to plunge. Seasonally, belly prices move lower through late April to early May, as demand is typically very weak for this timeframe. Belly prices are well below year-ago levels, so this may entice retail buyers to book some product for May and early summer promotions. Prices appear to be poised for an upturn, as bellies are trading higher early week. HAMS Ham prices traded slightly higher last week, with prices gradually increasing for earlyweek trades. Ham prices are expected to trade steady to slightly higher, as attractive price points strengthen domestic demand and prompt export buyers to move back in the market. Heavier hog weights have resulted in tighter supplies of light hams, which may cause volatile price scenarios during May. The long-range forecast shows ham prices moving higher through mid-july. TRIMMINGS Trades on pork trimmings moved lower last week. Fat 42% trimmings are still coming down off the unforeseen price spike from a few weeks ago, so that market is cooling down, and should recalibrate to a more seasonal, gradual increase. Lean 72% trimmings also moved lower, but only slightly. Directionally, trimming prices are expected to move consistently higher through summer. Early reports indicate that retailers will feature ground beef items over hot dogs in Memorial Day features, and this will keep downward pressure on trimming prices. PICNICS Demand for the picnic complex was lackluster last week, as cheaper alternatives, such as hams, presented themselves and drove lower pricing in the picnic complex. This market will likely see a slow turnaround with the approaching warmer weather as retail demand ramps up. Early reports indicate that retailers will feature ground beef items over dinner sausage in Memorial Day ads, which may result in lower-thananticipated prices for boneless picnics. 6

7 TURKEY BONELESS, SKINLESS TURKEY BREASTS Turkey breasts were up this week. We should expect this market to trend flat to upward for the near term. WHOLE FROZEN TURKEYS Whole turkeys were flat this week as there seems to be ample supply. We expect this market to trend flat to upward in the near term. CHICKEN BROILER-TYPE EGGS SET IN THE UNITED STATES UP 3% Hatcheries in the United States weekly program set 229 million eggs in incubators during the week ending April 14, 2018, up 3% from a year ago. Average hatchability for chicks hatched during the week in the United States was 82%. Average hatchability is calculated by dividing chicks hatched during the week by eggs set three weeks earlier. Note: Starting in 2018, the 19 State totals have been discontinued. BROILER-TYPE CHICKS PLACED IN THE UNITED STATES UP 1% Broiler growers in the United States weekly program placed 182 million chicks for meat production during the week ending April 14, 2018, up 1% from a year ago. Cumulative placements from the weeks ending January 6, 2018 through April 14, 2018 for the United States were 2.73 billion, up 1% from the same period a year earlier. Note: Starting in 2018, the 19-State totals have been discontinued. WHOLE CHICKEN & CUT-UP PARTS Small bird demand is still very strong, and supply continues to be tight. We can expect this trend to continue through BONELESS, SKINLESS BREASTS & CHICKEN TENDERLOINS Select small and medium boneless breast markets were flat this week, with supply and demand continuing to be in good balance. We can expect this market to trend flat to upward in the near term. The jumbo boneless breast market was down this week, with less than average demand. We can expect these markets to trend flat to downward in the near term. The select small and jumbo tenderloin markets were up this week. Both categories continue to receive a good call from further processors looking to replenish inventories. We can expect this market to trend flat to upward in the near term. WINGS The small and medium wing markets were down this week. Wing demand continues to be less than average, and has put the market into an oversupply situation. We can expect these markets to trend flat to downward in the near term. The jumbo wing market was flat this week, and we should expect this market to trend flat to downward in the near term. BONELESS, SKINLESS THIGHS This market was flat this week and we can expect it to trend flat to upward in the near term. As seasonal and export demand ramp up, labor shortages will heavily come into play. 7

8 COMMODITY OIL SOY, CANOLA & PALM OIL The soybean complex closed mixed last week, with soybeans taking the upside leadership role on solid export business, while meal and oil prices remained basically range-bound. Soybean oil did see some minor underlying support coming from new highs in the crude oil market, at just under $68 per barrel. Argentina booked its largest volume of U.S. soybeans (240,000 MT) in 20 years last week. This would seem to confirm that their soybean crop is most likely near the lower end of trade expectations. China also bought some U.S. soybeans, tempering the trade war rhetoric, at least for now. Last Tuesday s USDA supply/demand report contained no major surprises. The 2017/2018 soybean ending stocks were down 5 million bushels from April on a bigger crush number. 2017/2018 soybean oil ending stocks were raised 215 million pounds on a higher crush and lower biodiesel use. Exports were raised 100 million pounds. SOY: The May soybean oil futures contract finished another quiet trading week. Shortterm technical indicators still point lower, but both flat price and share of product value remain deeply oversold at current levels. The prospects for finding any common ground on biodiesel program reform have been put on hold for three months, as recent meetings among the EPA, USDA, farm groups and oil industry representatives failed to produce meaningful results. In the meantime, both Chevron and Exxon are now asking regulators for exemptions to the nation s current biofuels policy. CANOLA Canadian canola acreage could move up to 24 million acres in 2018, according to analysts, as the trade tensions between the U.S. and China may lead to additional opportunity. That would be the highest canola acreage on record, and some 4.5% over last year if it is actually achieved. PALM OIL The Malaysian Palm Oil Board updated their end-of-march palm oil stocks, down again from February and now the lowest level in five months. Despite the monthto-month decline, the number was still higher than trade expectations, and one widely followed analyst is calling for a $50 per ton break in prices between now and August, based on rising global production. Malaysia also announced that they will raise their palm oil export tax from 0% to 5% for May. US EXPORTS Year-to-date soybean oil sales are now only 10% behind a year ago, but well ahead of current year USDA expectations. DAIRY BUTTER Production is strong, with increased milk and cream supplies flowing. Demand is steady, and inventories are sufficient. Export interest is growing, which may cause an increase in pricing. Market forecasters predict pricing to be up over the next 60 to 90 days. SHELL EGGS As many of you know, Rose Acre announced a recall due to a possible salmonella outbreak impacting over 200 million eggs at their Hyde County facility in North Carolina. No other suppliers or facilities are affected. The recall impacted 7 USF markets in the Southeast Region. The affected markets are being supplied by Rose Acre s facility in Canon, GA. No supply issues have been reported at this time. After a severe market correction post-easter, the shell egg market has stabilized for the past few trading days, and should remain around this current level. CHEESE Cheese production is strong, with demand being reported as good. Milk prices are reported to be discounted, which has prompted some cheese makers to take advantage and increase production. Sales for Italian cheese are up, while traditional cheeses are flat. CME block prices have moved up in recent weeks. MILK & CREAM Milk output is steady to high across the country, with warmer weather increasing volumes. Supplies are steady, and inventory is balanced. For April: FMO markets were all up except Class II skim. Flat to increased pricing this month is expected this month for FMO markets. California markets were down except for Class I skim. Flat to decreased pricing is expected this month for California. 8

9 SEAFOOD SHRIMP, DOMESTIC (WHITES AND BROWNS): Shell-on Browns: Inventories are getting tight. Shell-on Whites: Markets are steady as there are still a few boats out, with average landings for this time of year. Overall outlook is for higher pricing as we move into early spring. DOMESTIC PUDS: Inventory positions are now reporting tighter than initially thought from last week. Prices are rising and will continue to do so. Inventory is extra tight on 90/110 s and 130/150 s. SHRIMP, IMPORTED (BLACK TIGER AND WHITES): Production on tigers continues to be very low. Larger sizes are extremely tight. Farmed Asian White shrimp are showing some signs of weakening, but the feeling here is that inventory levels in the US are causing vendors to lower prices. Latin Whites remain steady. (MEXICAN BROWNS AND WHITES): Some larger sizes will be hard to come by through the summer season. Browns will be in tight supply for the season. CATFISH DOMESTIC: Production of farmed domestic catfish has slowed somewhat, as colder water temperatures are having an impact on feeding. The overall outlook for 2018 is positive, however. IMPORTED: We are seeing stable pricing on imported catfish. New-season fish is starting to hit the US. The long-term outlook is still uncertain. SALMON ATLANTIC FARMED SALMON: Pricing and supply have become stable. Fresh fillet supply has firmed following high demand. MAHI MAHI Fishing is coming to an end in Central and South America. Catch has been better than in the past two years. The outlook for the spring and summer is for good supply. SCALLOPS SEA: Pricing has started to take some declines now that fishing is underway. We will see pricing decline as things get going. Expectations are for a good yield of U-10 s and s especially on s. BAY: Pricing has turned steady overseas. TILAPIA Inventory in the US seems to be good. Outlook for the second quarter of the year is for higher pricing. Demand is increasing with other species struggling. PANGASIUS Pricing remains high and inventory on 5-7 s and 7-9 s is very tight. Inspection of imported product is a slow process, causing delays on product moving out of cold storage. Pricing continues to increase. WHITEFISH COMPLEX COD: We expect the overall market to remain very firm with short inventory and high prices. We expect the trend to continue. POLLOCK: The fishery for Pacific pollock has produced only smaller fish, just 2-4 oz. fillets. This could cause an inventory issue for frozen loins if they don t start catching larger fish. Larger fillets of 4-6 oz. and 6-8 oz. are very tight. HADDOCK: Pricing on skin-on fillets and skinless loins is starting to see increases. We expect pricing to continue to increase following high demand. FLOUNDER: Product from China will remain tight, as the catch has been very slow, and Q2 pricing will be moving up significantly. The Argentine season is underway now, with inventories slowly making their way into the States. TUNA, YELLOWFIN (FROZEN STEAKS & LOINS): Tuna is fairly stable in pricing and inventories are good. SWORDFISH Swordfish pricing is very stable. Inventory levels are in very good shape. KING CRAB (RED & GOLDEN): Product is very short in the marketplace across all sizes. The outlook is for pricing to be higher with lower inventory. CRABMEAT (BLUE & RED, PASTEURIZED): Blue swimming crab pricing is up. The overall catch in Indonesia, which is the heaviest overall producer of crab, is currently off by 42%. Weather is a main contributor; as well, the overall catch is producing much smaller crabs. Only 15% of the total catch is falling into JL and COL. This will be another record setting year in blue crab. Red swimming crab pricing will be moving up for next week. Inventory is extremely tight, and we expect to see this continue through the summer season.mexico blue crab season is in full production with stable pricing. Inventory positions are very good at this time. SNOW CRAB ALASKAN: The majority of the 2018 crabbing fleet are on the fishing grounds, with poor results to date. With the cut in the quota, there is still a dark cloud hanging over how much inventory will be available for US consumption. There have been a few loads quoted. CANADIAN: Fishing in Canada is very close to underway. Ice flow will be the deciding factor as to when the fishermen can go fishing. Ice breakers have moved into the fishing grounds so boats can launch soon. Pricing is expected to open higher than it did last year, due to less raw material. Large size crab is going to be a major concern. LOBSTER TAILS NORTH AMERICAN LOBSTER: Tails are in very bad shape. The category as a whole saw limited catch, so they will be an issue now until May/June. We do expect to see pricing surge and inventory firm as we go forward. LOBSTER TAILS WARM WATER: Supply on warm water tails is in a good place; however, pricing is heating up, as the shortages in the cold water market continue to put pressure on larger-sized warm water tails. LOBSTER MEAT: The Maine season has wrapped up. As inventory depletes, we will see prices rise accordingly. Be careful not to get subpar meat quality. We are seeing some poor quality meat on the market. 9