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1 June 25,

2 The only thing that is constant is change! More competition than ever. Customers are very demanding, very fickle The need to adapt to changing marketplace conditions is greater than ever Thomas Freidman The World Is Flat & That Used to Be Us January 6,

3 Therefore, companies need to be very good a projects: creating new products and services that meet the demands of this changing marketplace. As project managers, we are agents of change, and key drivers of change. June 25,

4 Many of our key risks and challenges occur right at the beginning of the project. Agile provides a very different approach for the dealing with these risks There is no one perfect approach or methodology. Most projects are probably hybrid Project Managers must know traditional approaches, as well as Agile Agile is not just for project management. It can be used for product management, and even portfolio management All Rights Reserved Best Practices Team, LLC June 25,

5 January 6,

6 We start out behind schedule! With next to no budget! Unclear what resources we will be able to get Difficult Stakeholder Issues Customer and sponsor don t know what they really want! January 6,

7 January 6, 2015

8 Sometimes, projects are just thrown over the fence to us! We had little to no input into the sales process, but We have to make it work somehow! January 6,

9 January 6,

10 How to Manage the Impossible Project Michael Dobson, PMP August 16, 2011 Check out PMIWDC eviewlibrary January 6,

11 Traditional Project Management A Predictive Approach Agile Methodologies Iterative Approaches Scrum XP (Extreme Programming) Lean Software Development Crystal DSDM (Dynamic Systems Development Method) FDD (Feature Driven Development) Each provides a different approach for handling risk on our projects All Rights Reserved Best Practices Team, LLC June 25,

12 January 6,

13 #1) A poorly written Scope Statement which leads to Scope Creep. (Also called Requirements Creep. ) Missed requirements Misunderstood requirements Complexity -Requirements were not decomposed properly Missed key stakeholders in obtaining requirements A vague, ambiguous Scope statement with no boundaries or exclusions January 6,

14 #1) A poorly written Scope Statement which leads to Scope Creep. Also we need: Acceptance criteria well defined and SMART Specific Measurable Acceptable/Attainable/Agreed/Achievable Realistic/Reasonable Timebound January 6,

15 Requirements: Charter Scope Statement Communications Stakeholder Management

16 Use a Predictive Approach Push Concept First, exhaustively determine all the requirements Create a detailed Scope statement with SMART acceptance criteria Then Create WBS -> Develop Schedule -> Estimate Costs -> Determine Budget Protect the project against risks by calculating contingency reserves for the Schedule baseline and Cost baseline Use Earned Value January 6,

17 Project Lifecycle Kill Points Phases Conceptual Detailed Design Coding/ Development Unit Testing Integrated Testing Phase gates and Kill points occur as we move from phase to phase. January 6, 2015

18 French project led by Ferdinand de Lesseps who had just successfully directed building the Suez canal Initial Cost estimate -$200M with a schedule estimate of 12 years Attempted to build a sea-level canal across ~50 miles with no locks Almost none of the engineers supported this design! Completely underestimated effort of digging and moving earth in a very rainy environment After 10 years, $300M and not completing half of the canal, the project was cancelled 20,000 25,000 lives lost due to Malaria and Yellow- Fever. (Didn t understand cause of the disease.) Caused the French government in place at the time to fail January 6,

19 World s most expensive fighter airplane. Each plane was estimated to cost $138M, but actual costs were $412M each when production was stopped in Years behind schedule According to Dr. Stephen Meier, the program suffered from: Requirements creep Design by committee Over-zealous stakeholders advocating for including requirements. Especially untested, immature technologies Overly optimistic estimates of time and cost for adding numerous features Overly complex design January 6,

20 January 6,

21 January 6,

22 The Cone of Uncertainty A simple four phase sequential lifecycle approach for a software project - (SDLC) Conceptual Design Detailed Design Development Testing January 6,

23 Product Owner defines product backlog (requirements) Top priority requirements, most urgent requirements or most risky requirements are chosen for the first iterations Then very quickly (ideally, within 2-4 weeks) build first iteration/prototype and get customer feedback Identify fast failures! -Adapt and choose requirements for next iteration Pareto s law for requirements: 20% of the requirements fulfill 80% of the need Standish Survey 65% of requirements are never used So use a Lean approach: delay adding features until last feasible moment MMF Minimum Marketable Features Doug DeCarlo: If a picture is worth a thousand words, a prototype is worth a thousand pictures. January 6,

24 There must be more flexibility & trust; especially flexibility with the scope requirements Ken Schwaber Scrum is about the art of the possible, not you give me what I paid for, when you said you d deliver it. January 6,

25 Phases Conceptual Design Detailed Design Coding/ Development Unit Testing Integrated Testing Time January 6,

26 Cost Phases Conceptual Design Detailed Design Coding/ Development Unit Testing Integrated Testing Time January 6,

27 Iteration 1 Iteration 2 Iteration 3 Iteration 4 Iteration 5 Release Planning Conceptual Design Detailed Design Development Unit Testing Integrated Testing Acceptance Adaptive Planning Release Planning Conceptual Design Detailed Design Development Unit Testing Integrated Testing Acceptance Adaptive Planning Release Planning Conceptual Design Detailed Design Development Unit Testing Integrated Testing Acceptance Adaptive Planning Release Planning Conceptual Design Detailed Design Development Unit Testing Integrated Testing Acceptance Adaptive Planning Release Planning Conceptual Design Detailed Design Development Unit Testing Integrated Testing Acceptance Adaptive Planning Cost Time January 6,

28 As PMs, we must be versatile: Know how and when to use Traditional Project Management predictive planning method, and how and when to use Agile Project Management Must be able to explain to senior management and the customer the advantages and disadvantages of both January 6,

29 Requirements: Charter Scope Statement Communications Stakeholder Management

30 But it s not about processes and methodologies. It s really about people skills, and managing teams and other Stakeholders. This is really about Communications Which is really about good listening skills! It starts with Develop Charter, really understanding Who needs what and why? and then defining what product(s) best meet this business need. January 6,

31 If constraints seem impossible, an Agile approach would probably make a lot of sense. Or, -use our influence with the Kill Point decisions If there s a lot of uncertainty about the product or solution, and we re not sure if this is a half-baked idea, then again, an Agile approach could be very good. January 6,

32 Perhaps a Hybrid Approach would be best! Do the first 2-3 iterations to get the 20% of the requirements that will fulfill 80% of the need. Then, if the customer wants more precision, and a fixed price for the remaining part of the project, go with the traditional approach for this part. January 6,

33 Use the traditional project management approach if: Fixed-Price contracts There s a lack of trust There s a high-level of complexity You are using a virtual team You are using a number of subcontractors, and don t have a lot of past-performance data on them. January 6,

34 Can Help Define the Product Roadmap Can Help Define Portfolios and Programs Don t use a centralized, detailed planning approach for defining product roadmaps and portfolio. Instead, use a decentralized, iterative approach with Lean concepts. Many companies today especially in Tech like to describe how agile they are (how quickly they are turning over their product lines). All Rights Reserved Best Practices Team, LLC June 25,

35 That Used to Be Us: How America Fell Behind in the World It Invented - Thomas Freidman & Michael Mandelbaum Agile Estimating and Planning -Mike Cohn Agile Excellence for Product Managers -Greg Cohen Agile Project Management: Creating Innovative Products -Jim Highsmith Agile Project Management With Scrum-Ken Schwaber Extreme Project Management Doug DeCarlo Identifying and Managing Project Risk: Essential Tools for Project Managers Tom Kendrick All Rights Reserved Best Practices Team, LLC June 25,

36 Mark Tolbert, PMP Best Practices Team, LLC (703) January 6,

37 Webinar PDU Information Program Title: Thoughts on Agile, Hybrid Projects and Risk Management PDU Category (PMI Component): Category A PMIWDC s Component ID (Provider ID): C046 Activity Meeting Number:012215WB Date of Completion: 2015/01/22 PDUs Earned (Contact Hours): 1

38 January 6,

39 Many of our key risks and challenges occur right at the beginning of the project. Agile provides a very different approach for the dealing with these risks There is no one perfect approach or methodology. Most projects are probably hybrid Project Managers must know traditional approaches, as well as Agile Agile is not just for project management. It can be used for product management, and even portfolio management All Rights Reserved Best Practices Team, LLC June 25,

40 Panama Canal First Attempt Denver Airport Baggage System F22 (And numerous other very large DoD weapons systems) Motorola Iridium Project June 25,

41 77 low orbit satellites would provide global cellular phone coverage Launch of satellites started in Services commenced in Initial cost estimate - $7B Needed 1M subscribers to break even, and by mid-1999 had only signed up 55,000 Due to the power required for the battery, the phones were heavy and could not fit in a pocket They also would not work inside buildings Expensive to use: cost was $10 per minute 2G GSM phones that provided global service became available in the 90s. These were small, lightweight and much less expensive. There were several attempts to sell the company, but there were no buyers. June 25,

42 June 25,

43 June 25,

44 June 25,

45 June 25,

46 June 25,

47 Cost Baseline = A Classic S Curve Cost Baseline = PMB in Earned Value $180,000 Cost $$ $100,000 PV Budget at Completion (BAC) $180,000 7/01 Time 1/6 4/17 January 6,

48 Classic S Curve Cost Baseline = PMB in Earned Value So, on 1/6: CPI = EV/AC CPI = 90,000/110,000 CPI =.81 For every dollar we re spending, we re getting 81 cents of value! TCPI = 1.29 Cost $$ $110,000 $100,000 AC = $110,000 PV = $100,000 Budget at Completion (BAC) $180,000 $90,000 EV = $90, /01 Time On 1/6, we ve done 90% of the work that was planned 1/6 4/17 January 6,

49 Classic S Curve Cost Baseline = PMB in Earned Value So, on 1/6: CPI = EV/AC CPI =.81 SPI =.90 EAC = BAC/CPI EAC= $222, EAC = 180,000/.81 EAC = $222, Cost $$ $110,000 $100,000 AC = $110,000 PV = $100,000 Budget at Completion (BAC) $180,000 $90,000 EV = $90,0000 SV = EV - PV SV = 90, ,000 = -10,000 10/01 Time 1/6 4/17 January 6,

50 Classic S Curve So, on 1/6: CPI = EV/AC Cost Baseline = PMB in Earned Value CPI = 90,000/110,000 =.81 TCPI = (BAC-EV)/ (BAC-AC) = (90,000/ 70,000) = 1.29 Cost $$ $110,000 $100,000 AC = $110,000 PV = $100,000 Budget at Completion (BAC) $180,000 $90,000 EV = $90, /01 Time On 1/6, we ve done 90% of the work that was planned 1/6 4/17 January 6,

51 Classic S Curve So, if on 11/1: CPI = EV/AC Cost Baseline = PMB in Earned Value Cost $$ $110,000 Budget at Completion (BAC) $180,000 $15,000 $13,500 10/01 AC = $15,500 PV = $15,000 EV = $13,500 11/01 4/17 Time If - on 11/1, we ve done 90% of the work that was planned, but we ve spent $15,500. Now, CPI = EV/AC = 13,500/15,500 =.87 TCPI = (BAC-EV/BAC-AC) = 1.01 January 6,

52 Original plan was for opening the airport in October1993 Baggage system failures caused opening to be delayed until March 1995 at a cost of $560M. ($1M per day for 16 months) Plan was any piece of baggage could be moved to its destination in 10 minutes! Airport is ~50 square miles 88 airport gates in three concourses 17 miles of track and 5 miles of conveyor belts 3,100 standard carts and 450+ oversized carts 14 million feet of wiring Network of 100+ PCs to control flow of the carts 5,000 electric motors 2,700 photocells, 400 radio receivers and 59 laser arrays June 25,

53 It is a truism in systems design that as you increase the complexity, the difficulties in making the system work increase exponentially. If the system is 10 times as complex, the difficulties could be 100 times as great. The Denver baggage system was 100 times more complex than the system in Atlanta. June 25,

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