Introduction to Management Science

Transcription

1 GLOBAL EDITION Introduction to Management Science Eleventh Edition Bernard W. Taylor III

2 Editorial Director: Sally Yagan Editor in Chief: Donna Battista Senior Acquisitions Editor: Chuck Synovec Senior Acquisitions Editor, Global Edition: Steven Jackson Editorial Project Manager: Mary Kate Murray Editorial Assistant: Ashlee Bradbury Director of Marketing: Maggie Moylan Executive Marketing Manager: Anne Fahlgren Marketing Manager, International: Dean Erasmus Senior Managing Editor: Judy Leale Production Project Manager: Jane Bonnell Senior Operations Supervisor: Arnold Vila Operations Specialist: Cathleen Petersen Creative Director: Blair Brown Senior Art Director/Supervisor: Janet Slowik Art Director: Steve Frim Interior Design: Mike Fruhbeis Cover Design: Jodi Notowitz Cover Image: (c) Scanrail - Fotolia.com Associate Media Project Manager, Editorial: Sarah Peterson Media Project Manager, Production: John Cassar Pearson Education Limited Edinburgh Gate Harlow Essex CM20 2JE England and Associated Companies throughout the world Visit us on the World Wide Web at: Pearson Education Limited 2013 The right of Bernard W. Taylor III to be identified as the author of this work has been asserted by them in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act Authorised adaptation from the United States edition, entitled Introduction to Management Science, 11 th Edition, ISBN by Bernard W. Taylor III, published by Pearson Education All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without either the prior written permission of the publisher or a licence permitting restricted copying in the United Kingdom issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency Ltd, Saffron House, 6 10 Kirby Street, London EC1N 8TS. All trademarks used herein are the property of their respective owners. The use of any trademark in this text does not vest in the author or publisher any trademark ownership rights in such trademarks, nor does the use of such trademarks imply any affiliation with or endorsement of this book by such owners. Microsoft and/or its respective suppliers make no representations about the suitability of the information contained in the documents and related graphics published as part of the services for any purpose. All such documents and related graphics are provided as is without warranty of any kind. Microsoft and/or its respective suppliers hereby disclaim all warranties and conditions with regard to this information, including all warranties and conditions of merchantability, whether express, implied or statutory, fitness for a particular purpose, title and non-infringement. In no event shall Microsoft and/or its respective suppliers be liable for any special, indirect or consequential damages or any damages whatsoever resulting from loss of use, data or profits, whether in an action of contract, negligence or other tortious action, arising out of or in connection with the use or performance of information available from the services. The documents and related graphics contained herein could include technical inaccuracies or typographical errors. Changes are periodically added to the information herein. Microsoft and/or its respective suppliers may make improvements and/or changes in the product(s) and/or the program(s) described herein at any time. Partial screen shots may be viewed in full within the software version specified. Microsoft and Windows are registered trademarks of the Microsoft Corporation in the U.S.A. and other countries. This book is not sponsored or endorsed by or affiliated with the Microsoft Corporation. British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library ISBN-13: ISBN-10: Typeset in 10/12, Times New Roman by PreMediaGlobal Printed and bound by Courier Kendallville in the United States of America The publisher's policy is to use paper manufactured from sustainable forests.

3 Introduction to Management Science: Global Edition Table of Contents Cover Contents Preface Chapter 1 Introduction to Modeling The Management Science Approach to Problem Solving Time Out: for Pioneers in Management Science Management Science Application: Room Pricing with Management Science at Marriott Model Building: Break-Even Analysis Computer Solution Management Science Application:The Application of Management Sciencewith Spreadsheets Management Science Modeling Techniques Business Usage of Management Science Techniques Management Science Application: Management Science in the Asian AirlineIndustry Management Science Models in Decision Support Systems Chapter 2 Modeling with Linear Programming Model Formulation A Maximization Model Example Time Out for George B. Dantzig Management Science Application: Allocating Seat Capacity on Indian RailwaysUsing Linear Programming Graphical Solutions of Linear Programming Models Management Science Application: Improving Customer Service atamazon.com A Minimization Model Example Management Science ApplicationFinance, Investment, and Linear ProgrammingSolutions: Evidence from Dubai and Kuwait Irregular Types of Linear Programming Characteristics of Linear Programming s

4 Chapter 3 Solving Linear Programming Models Computer Solution Management Science Application: Optimizing Production Quantitiesat GE Plastics Management Science Application: Improving Profitability at Norske Skogwith Linear Programming Sensitivity Analysis Chapter 4 Solving Examples of Linear Programming Models A Product Mix Example Time Out for George B. Dantzig A Diet Example An Investment Example Management Science Application: A Linear Programming Model for Optimal Portfolio Selection at GE Asset Management A Marketing Example A Transportation Example A Blend Example A Multiperiod Scheduling Example Management Science Application: Linear Programming Blending Applicationsin the Petroleum Industry Management Science Application: Employee Scheduling with Management Science A Data Envelopment Analysis Example Management Science Application: Measuring Asian Ports Efficiency Using DEA Example ProblemSolution Chapter 5 Integer Linear Programming Models Integer Programming Models Management Science Application: Allocating Operating Room Time at TorontosMount Sinai Hospital Integer Programming Graphical Solution Computer Solution of Integer Programming with Excel and QM for Windows Management Science Application: Computer Waste Management in Delhi, India Management Science Application: Planes Get a Lift from Integrated Solutions 01 Integer Programming Modeling Examples

5 Management Science Application: Planning Next-Day Air Shipmentsat UPS Chapter 6 Linear Programming Transportation Models The Transportation Model Time Out for Frank L. Hitchcock and Tjalling C. Koopmans Management Science Application: Commercial Transportation TakingNew Roads with GPS Computer Solution of a Transportation Problem Management Science Application: Matching Buyers and Sellers in theaustralian Tourism Commissions Events The Transshipment Model Management Science Application: The Silk Road Once Again Unites East and West The Assignment Model Computer Solution of an Assignment Problem Management Science Application: Improving Financial Reporting withmanagement Science at Nestlé Management Science Application: Assigning Umpire Crews at ProfessionalTennis Tournaments Chapter 7 Shortest Route, Minimal Spanning Tree, and Maximal Flow Models Network Components The Shortest Route Problem The Minimal Spanning Tree Problem Management Science Application: Determining Optimal Milk Collection Routes in Italy The Maximal Flow Problem Time Out for E. W. Dijkstra, L. R. Ford, Jr., and D. R. Fulkerson Management Science Application: Distributing Railway Cars to Customersat CSX Chapter 8 Managing Projects with CPM/PERT Models The Elements of Project Management

6 Management Science Application: Managing Projects in China Time Out for Henry Gantt Management Science Application: An Interstate Highway Construction Project in Virginia CPM/PERT Time Out for Morgan R. Walker, James E. Kelley, Jr., and D. G. Malcolm Probabilistic Activity Times Management Science Application: The T5 Project at Heathrow Airport Microsoft Project Project Crashing and TimeCost Trade-Off Management Science Application: Reconstructing the Pentagon After 9/11 Formulating the CPM/PERT Network as a Linear Programming Model Chapter 9 Modeling Multicriteria Goal Programming Graphical Interpretation of Goal Programming Computer Solution of Goal Programming with QM for Windows and Excel Management Science Application: Determining Downloads: BBCs Decisionto Allow Content Download Time Out for Abraham Charnes and William W. Cooper The Analytical Hierarchy Process Management Science Application: Selecting Students for Graduate StudiesAbroad at Dar Al-Hekma Womens College Management Science Application: Analyzing Advanced-TechnologyProjects at NASA Management Science Application: Ranking Twentieth-CenturyArmy Generals Scoring Models Management Science Application: U.K. Immigration Points System s Chapter 10 Nonlinear Programming Models Nonlinear Profit Analysis Constrained Optimization Solution of Nonlinear Programming with Excel Management Science Application: Making Supplier Decisions at Ford with Nonlinear

7 Programming Table of Contents A Nonlinear Programming Model with Multiple Constraints Nonlinear Model Examples Chapter 11 Probabilistic Models Types of Probability Fundamentals of Probability Management Science Application: Treasure Hunting with Probabilityand Statistics Statistical Independence and Dependence Expected Value A Management Science Application: A Probability Model for Predicting Earthquakes in China The Normal Distribution Chapter 12 Decision-Making Models Components of Decision Making Decision Making Without Probabilities Management Science Application: Planning for Terrorist Attacks and Epidemicsin Los Angeles County with Decision Analysis Decision Making with Probabilities Management Science Application: Evaluating Electric Generator Maintenance Schedules Using Decision Tree Analysis Decision Analysis with Additional Information Management Science Application: The Use of Decision Analysis to Determine the Optimal Size of the South African National Defense Force Utility Chapter 13 Waiting Line Models Elements of Waiting Line Analysis The Single-Server Waiting Line System Time Out for Agner Krarup Erlang

8 Management Science Application: Cutting the Queues Undefined and Constant Service Times Finite Queue Length Management Science Application: Providing Telephone Order Service in the Retail Catalog Business Finite Calling Population The Multiple-Server Waiting Line Management Science Application: Making Sure 911 Calls Get Through at AT&T Additional Types of Queuing Systems Chapter 14 Simulation Models The Monte Carlo Process Time Out for John Von Neumann Computer Simulation with Excel Spreadsheets Simulation of a Queuing System Management Science Application: Simulation Techniques at Peugeot Continuous Probability Distributions Statistical Analysis of Simulation Results Management Science Application: A Monte Carlo Simulation Model for Managing Liquidity Risk at Merrill Lynch Bank USA Crystal Ball Verification of the Simulation Model Areas of Simulation Application Chapter15 Forecasting Models Forecasting Components Management Science Application: Forecasting Advertising Demand at NBC Time Series Methods Management Science Application: Forecasting at Goodyear Tire and Rubber Company Management Science Application: Forecasting at Heineken USA Forecast Accuracy Management Science Application: Forecasting at Bayer Consumer Care Time Series Forecasting Using Excel

9 Time Series Forecasting Using QM for Windows Regression Methods Management Science Application: An Airline Passenger Forecasting Model s Chapter 16 Inventory Models Elements of Inventory Management Inventory Control Systems Time Out for Ford Harris Economic Order Quantity Models The Basic EOQ Model The EOQ Model with Noninstantaneous Receipt The EOQ Model with Shortages EOQ Analysis with QM for Windows EOQ Analysis with Excel and Excel QM Quantity Discounts Reorder Point Determining Safety Stock by Using Service Levels Order Quantity for a Periodic Inventory System Glossary A B C D E F G H J L N O P

10 Q R S T U V W Z Index A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W Z