International Trends and paradigm bends in Utilities in response to increased risks, regulation and technology innovation

Transcription

1 International Trends and paradigm bends in Utilities in response to increased risks, regulation and technology innovation 5th November 2003 Tokyo Japan Richard Simpson Executive Consultant (Asia Pacific) Intergraph Mapping & Geospatial Solutions GITA-JAPAN'S XIVTH ANNUAL CONFERENCE AND EXHIBITION

2 Topics for discussion Environmental factors Network Failure Regulatory Drivers Unexpected Events Terrorism The Utility Future Trends? (Physical, Cyber, Bio) Software Systems Business Drivers Paradigms (Automation & Industry reforms)

3 What are Unexpected Events? Low-probability, high-impact events embedded within dynamic human environments Impossible to anticipate all such possibilities Have system-wide effects Impact multiple stakeholders, organisations, systems, technologies, resources and people Impacts vary and may compound as events unfold Overwhelm existing capabilities Pre-existing plans and organizations are often inadequate Response may depend on heroic efforts Elements of response system may be destroyed

4 Potential Examples Natural Earthquake, hurricane, tornado, flood, fire, tsunami, epidemic, volcano, environmental disaster Man-made (Accidental) Nuclear, biological, chemical, blackout Software system failure Man-made (Intentional) Nuclear, biological, chemical, bomb Software viruses

5 The Mission Save lives Reduce suffering Protect property Save businesses/livelihoods and Protect information

6 Some of the challenges Early detection of threat (hijacking, anthrax) is key to saving lives, reducing suffering, and protecting property Must reduce likelihood that a major disaster (natural or manmade) could be worsened by terrorist acts Situation assessment must be quicker and more thorough Current and relevant information must be readily available to many people. In some cases this may need to be live information to control disaster In an emergency these people may not be trained in the software and so access to information must be easy. Information is a key and must be disaster proofed The software systems are very complex must be robust and deliver quality information. Commercial Off the Shelf (COTS) greatly reduces risks and implementation time of these complex systems.

7 GIS has a key role to play Quicker and more targeted map production Faster public notification Improved team notification, response times and capabilities Ability to combine spatial information together eg. Weather map as backdrop to facility map Need to build counter terrorism response into all emergency planning Scenario modeling provides more contingency plans for a wider range of terrorism threats and natural disasters Interfacing with sensors and cameras for damage and vulnerability assessment Growing need to maximize use of geospatial technology in improving readiness, response, and recovery

8 There are often many systems Historic Work Order Archives Financial Accounting Supply Chain Management Document Workflow Systems Document Management System Satellite Images Photo Images DM Assessor s Records Spatial Analysis Sales & Distribution ERP Materials Management ROW/ Easement Information LIS/ GIS Demographic Information Plant Maintenance Production Maintenance Planning Work Asset Scheduling Management /Registry Human Resources Job Workflow Management Compatible Units Management Land Base Spatial Analysis CAD, Photos & Detail Drawings WMS Crew Management WMS Design Engineering GMS Facilities Maps & Schematics Plant Tax Reporting WMS Job Scheduling Job Estimating Geofacilities Model O&M Management Network Analysis Asset Management & Reporting Maintenance Work Dispatch GRM Outage Analysis Operational Facilities Model CIS/CCS Customer Voice Information Response Unit Automated Meter Reading Trouble Call Taking OMS OMS Crew Management / Scheduling CIS Customer Call Handling SCADA Full Crew Management Full Job Scheduling Computer Aided Dispatch OMS Dispatch WFMS Routine Work Dispatch Routine Work Scheduling DMS GPS/AVL Mobile Data Computing

9 But Industry and Responsibilities are restructuring!! Vertically Integrated Unbundled Wholesale Competition Full Customer Choice Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Malaysia Philippines 2007? 2004? Lao PDR Myanmar Vietnam Thailand Singapore Eg. ASEAN Electric Industry Dynamic Flexibility in data model and data handling

10 and software systems fail too!! Standish Group found that 51% of projects failed 31% were partially successful Main causes were poor user requirements: 13.1% Incomplete requirements 12.4% Lack of user involvement 10.6% Inadequate resources 9.9% Unrealistic user expectations 9.3% Lack of management support 8.7% Requirements keep changing 8.1% Inadequate planning 7.5% System no longer needed Rapid implementation and Commerical Off The Shelf (COTS)

11 Life Cycle of an Event Preparedness (w/post-action review & learning) Recovery Unexpected Event Detection & Understanding GIS/GRM Focus Response

12 Geospatial Resource Management (GRM) Moving well beyond Traditional Point Solutions

13 Information Considerations Access Emergency policies and protocols for information access Temporary authentication and validation process for sensitive information Live data and satellite imagery access Infrastructure asset connectivity model Presentation Visualization and automatic creation of plots, maps and summaries Fusion and Validation Typing, conversion, standardisation, recognition, validation and interpretation Exploitation Identification and extraction guided by nature and circumstances of event Organizing collected information as events unfold Simulation combined with data extraction Enhanced/combined GIS + extraction tools, data/text mining and link analysis Focusing Automated filtering based on needs, tasks and priorities Attention management under stress in crisis situations Metadata representation Security and privacy (classification status, ownership, property and use rights) Freshness/staleness, quality, trustworthiness, completeness, pedigree Consequences of information creation, storage and use Economic and policy implications

14 Networking Considerations Resilience Rapidly deployable, self-assembling/configuring and adaptive Reconfiguration to sustain and contain disaster impacts Uninterruptible Power Supply Commercial Off The Shelf ( COTS ) Telemetry and sensor networks (including SCADA) Ad hoc networks composed of surviving and added nodes Activated-on-demand, embedded, pre-deployable sensors Rule-based systems security Quickly adaptable policies for necessary unplanned access Grid technologies Uniform access to distributed, heterogeneous computational resources Heterogeneous and ad hoc wireless infrastructure Integrating diverse services into one transparent communication system

15 Some examples Geospatial Resource Management (GRM) Asset Management Outage Management Systems Mobile Workforce Management Emergency Dispatch and call taking Spatial analysis Web publishing Automated response Automated notification (spatially determined) Location based services

16 The US Blackout 15th August 2003

17 The US Blackout 15 th August 2003

18 The Blackout Faults Were In Transmision Grid, Not Distribution InService & Most Framme Systems Address Distribution Distribution Customers Did Not Use InService For TA & Dispatch Vermont & PECO Unaffected DECO Severely Affected Lost Redundant Substation Power Lost Power To Data Center Lost Most IT Systems Including InService Once Power Restored, System Worked Great For Subsequent Work

19 Niagara Falls Hydro Serve Canada Side Of Canada/New York Niagara Falls Maintained Power During Outage Period Challenge Came When Grid Was Being Restored With Load Shedding Had To Determine If Customer Outages Were Due To Rolling Outages or New Outage Events Decided To Begin Early Launch of G/Netviewer For Analysis Tool User Customer To Transformer To Feeder Link, Determined Whether Outage Was Rolling Blackout Or New Outage Event "Rolling G/NetViewer out in the midst of a Provincial state of emergency was a difficult decision, but really worked out for us. Without any specialized training, our staff was able to perform their necessary job responsibilities and keep our customers informed. This is really a testament to how simple this tool is to access our vital geofacilities asset information." Kevin Carver, Information Systems & Standards Engineer at Niagara Falls Hydro.

20 Paradigm Shifts Induced by change: Regulation Industry Information Technology Business opportunity Market place Or Unexpected event

21 Product Life Cycles, Generations, and Paradigms DATA MIGRATION G4 G3 * IBM enters the PC business * Xerox invents the built-in mouse IBM and Motorola introduce RISC chip for PCs * Microsoft introduces Windows 3.1 * Internet use tops 100,000 * Compaq unveils 386-based PCs * IBM develops a one-million bit RAM * COTS * President signed a Y2K bill Real-Time GIS * Intel makes settlements with Intergraph * Geospatial Resource Management * Worldwide semiconductor sales exceed $200 billion G2 * Hewlett-Packard introduces the first scientific pocket calculator Internet takes off G1 * IBM invents the floppy disk Intel introduces DEC PDP11 Minicomputer Windows 3.1 the first 1k RAM IGDS FIDS (IGDS + DMRS) FRAMME G/Technology

22 Solution Domains & Paradigms Regulation Business outcomes Business & process model G4 Combinational Workflow and functionality Outsource, Insource, Service Delivery System Architecture & Data Repository G1 G2 G3 Each generation tasked more wider and deeper.

23 Strategy and Operational Alignment Benefit/Cost Ratio :1 2:1 0 Automated Mapping Automated Design Enterprise Application Network Operations Application of Network Model

24 A 75kVA ABC 45 /5 45 /5 25kVA A 2 15kVA A /S3 U 1 45 / /S3 3 A U ABC A E A C C A 1/0 CU 1/0 CU A 6 CU HD G E 4 CU HD ABC Automated Design

25 Automated Analysis Network Trace SynerGEE

26 Strategy and Operational Alignment Benefit/Cost Ratio :1 2:1 4:1 0 Automated Mapping Automated Design Enterprise Access Network Operations Application of Network Model

27 Information For The Masses Generation Substation Transmission Primary Transformer Service Customer Secondary Main Street Land Base

28 Strategy and Operational Alignment exponential Benefit/Cost Ratio :1 2:1 4:1 0 Automated Mapping Automated Design Enterprise Application Network Operations Application of Network Model

29 Crew Management & Auto Dispatch Geographic crew monitoring with GPS Optimized routing & Auto-monitoring Automatic Scheduling Reduction in work assignment time Reduction in crew driving times Generation Substation Transmission Less clerical overhead & Lower service costs Increased crew efficiency Primary Transformer Reduced overall crew costs Secondary Service Customer Main Street Land Base

30 Mobile Computing Eliminate paper in the field Eliminate voice traffic on radio Eliminate duplication of work/data updates Increase crew efficiency Generation Substation Transmission Primary Transformer Secondary Service Customer Main Street Land Base

31 Outage Analysis & Restoration Effective, customer focused restoration planning Faster determination of dispatch destinations Revenue increase Generation Substation Transmission Improved customer satisfaction Primary Transformer Secondary Service Customer Main Street Land Base

32 Switch Plan Management Generation Substation Transmission Validation of switching plans All transactions saved for analysis, liability protection Consistent practices in switch plan management Primary Transformer Secondary Service Customer Main Street Land Base

33 Thank you Richard Simpson Executive Consultant (Asia Pacific) Intergraph Mapping & Geospatial Solutions