Introduction to Group Work

Transcription

1 Introduction to Group Work Young Leadership Programme on Forest-Based Bioeconomy: Focus on Russia December 7, 2015 Päivi Pelli

2 The groups

3 Group work task: December, 7-11 Define scenarios for the forest-based bioeconomy 2050, focus on Russia

4 Group Work, Dec Building scenarios on forest-based bioeconomy: 1 Group topic and a short description of the situation in 2015 Mon 2 Collecting information about developments affecting the future (i.e. notes from the presentations, site visits, discussions) 3 Summarizing a map of the developments, trends and drivers, possible change factors towards 2050 Tue-Thu Thu 4 Elaboration of alternative images of future Thu 5 Drafting scenario storyline(s) Thu Presentation and reporting of the group work Fri 01/12/2015 4

5 Future bioeconomy scenarios Futures in plural The future cannot be predicted: We can only create images and ideas of what events we will be facing in the future there are many alternative futures. Future is not pre-determined: We can assess what will probably happen; what the grades of probability are, when we consider the different options. We can affect the future through our actions and choices: It is important to know what is probable (plausible) and what is preferable. This requires consideration of values. Ref.: Amara, Roy (1981) The Futures Field: How to Tell Good Work from Bad, The Futurist, Communicating the Future, Vol. XV, No 2 April 1981.

6 Future-orientation in forestry and forest sector nothing new Silviculture, forest management plans, forest growth trends Forest products market analysis, outlooks Research and development agendas, technology roadmaps Governance issues, decision-support systems Forest sector foresight more about this on Thursday!

7 Example of Forest Products Markets: The Case of Newsprint Consumption in USA Hetemäki, L. Information Technology and Paper Demand Scenarios. In: Palo, M. & Uusivuori, J. (eds.). World Forests, Society and Environment. World Forests, Vol. 1. Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1999, p Hetemäki, L., Hänninen, R. & Moiseyev, A Markets and Market Forces for Pulp and Paper Products, pp , in Hansen, E., Panwar, R. & Vlosky, R. & (eds.). The Global Forest Sector: Changes, UEF Practices, // University and Prospects. of Eastern CRC Press, Finland Taylor and Francis Group, USA. 462 p. Hetemäki, L. & Nilsson, S. (eds) Information Technology and the Forest Sector. IUFRO World Series, Vol. 18, August 2005, Vienna.

8 Example of new products: wood-based pulp & biorefineries

9 Example of structural changes: services?

10 Group work on Tue-Thu: Collect information From the presentations collect multiple viewpoints and information about the past, present and future of bioeconomy in a STEEP template i.e. what are the Social Technological Economical Environmental Political etc. developments that affect the future: what kind of trends; what kind of uncertainties; what kind of change factors; what kind of possible surprises?

11 STEEP Template (modify for your own investigation) Factors: Social Technological Environmental Economic Political Cultural, Values... Legislation... 11

12 Group work today: What is your group s topic for elaborating scenarios? Acquaint with the example STEEP table; discuss in your group: What was most interesting today? What information and / or viewpoints are missing from the pre-filled STEEP table? Define your group s topic: What is the theme for your group s scenarios? Describe with a few sentences the situation as it is today (2015)

13 Success with your work!