Status of forest biomass and carbon stock assessment in South and Central America

Transcription

1 Status of forest biomass and carbon stock assessment in South and Central America Matieu Henry (FAO) & Lars Gunnar Marklund (FAO) REDD+ For the Guiana Shield, 3 rd Working Group Meeting, Design of a Multipurpose National

2 Role of South American forests in global climate change LUCF sector contributes to 8% of global GHG emissions (Le Quéré et al. 2013) 1/3 of the tropical C sink results from the South America tropical forests (Malhi, 2010) Large source of uncertainties related to the combination of various sources of data and various methodologies, from bottom-up ecosystem inventories to land fluxes, biogeochemical models, and atmospheric inversions. Status of national communications to the UNFCCC (%) Nat. Com. Non-Annex I LA Countries 1st nd d th 1 5 5th 1 5

3 Reporting GHG estimates under the UNFCCC Under the UNFCCC there are 2 channels for GHG data acquisition: (1)GHG Inventory, annually submitted by Annex I Parties only (it is mandatory). A GHGI contains information on GHG emissions and removals. >> subject to review & accounting procedure under KP (2) National Communication, submitted by all Parties (however it is mandatory, every 4 years, for Annex I Parties only). >> subject to review The review procedure: Assists Annex I Parties in improving the quality Ensures that the COP has adequate and reliable information Future requirements under the UNFCCC (CP.16) Annex I Parties should submit a biennial report The first biennial report due by 1 January 2014 and then every 2 yrs >>subject to an International assessment and review process Non-Annex I Parties should submit a biennial update report The first biennial update reports due by December 2014 &then every 2 yrs >> subject to an international consultations and analysis

4 Data are published on the UNFCCC website; Data published are official data of the Party Their consistency with other official statistics prepared by the Party under other national (e.g. statistical yearbook) and international initiative (e.g. FRA) has to be ensured. Published data are used by the UNFCCC to assessing country progresses towards commitments and for assessing global trends of anthropogenic emissions and removals.

5 Guidelines for country reporting available at: National Forest Resources Assessment in South and Central America Data at national level FRA 2010 dataset data officially submitted by countries to FAO. Note that FRA data come from the countries, they are not FAO data. Countries are requested to provide best possible estimates: NFI or RS data on forest area; NFI data on stocks per hectare when available; National data / equations on volume and biomass whenever possible; If not available, best possible volume estimate and application of national BCEF or as a last resort, default BCEF values from IPCC The bottleneck is, and has always been, the availability of robust country data

6 How have the countries reported to FRA 2010? This brief analysis covers all LA countries excluding the Caribbean Islands In total 21 countries and territories. Of these countries, 17 reported on growing stock and 16 reported on biomass and carbon - the following analysis will focus on these 16 countries. Among those not reporting we find countries like Ecuador, El Salvador, Paraguay & Venezuela. The reason given is lack of information.

7 Forest area estimates Of 16 countries reporting on biomass and carbon, 3 have estimated total forest area from NFI data, remaining 13 from RS derived maps Several countries do not have trend data on forest area, and have assumed an annual deforestation rate a couple of countries even assumed zero deforestation

8 Growing stock estimates 7 countries have fairly recent NFI data, 1 more have very old NFI data. No any country reports using tree allometric equations in FRA reports, although they may have used tree AE. Two countries have estimated volume from biomass figures, applying a BCEF backwards. Remaining countries have estimated growing stock per hectare from other partial inventories, management plans, etc. It is unclear when equations have been used and when not.

9 Above-ground biomass estimates 3 countries (Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras) have applied biomass equations on NFI data 4 countries have applied nationally estimated stocks per hectare Remaining countries have applied either an estimate based on D x BEF or directly a BCEF. Of these, a few countries (Argentina, Brazil) have made more elaborated estimation of BEFs, by region or by biome. Some have used the equation by Brown to calculate BEF.

10 Below-ground biomass One country (Mexico) seems to have applied equations, but it is unclear how estimates were derived Two countries/territories have national estimates on BGB per hectare it is unclear how these were derived (Guyana / French Guiana) Remaining have used IPCC default values, usually A few countries have applied sub-national or biome values (Argentina, Brazil)

11 Carbon estimates Most countries have applied a carbon fraction of 0.47 as of IPCC (2006) A few countries have applied a carbon fraction of 0.5 (IPCC, 2003) Brazil is using different carbon fractions for different biomes (between 0.47 and 0.5)

12 Conclusions data reported to FRA Growing stock data still very weak. Some important countries (Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador) completely lack growing stock data useful for national estimates. Other important countries rely on partial inventory data for their growing stock estimates (Brazil, Peru, Bolivia). Biomass and carbon estimates are in most cases based on the growing stock figures. Only a few countries have used national biomass data, and it is uncertain how these data were obtained and processed.

13 Recent development Several countries in process of planning or implementing a national forest inventory Brazil Ecuador Panama Paraguay Costa Rica Many countries are updating or elaborating new forest maps, so better area and area

14 Other sources for national data Saacthi pantropical study on forest carbon stocks Satellite LIDAR data calibrated with ground plots Tabulated national estimates cannot be compared as is with FRA data, as areas are inconsistent Saatchi gives slightly lower carbon estimates per ha than what s reported to FRA, but likely due to different area figures Saatchi seems to include more bushland as forest. Typical example is Argentina.

15 Comparisons with the Saatchi study Country/area Carbon in AGB (million t) FRA Carbon in AGB (million t) Saatchi Carbon in AGB (t/ha) FRA Carbon in AGB (t/ha) Saatchi Forest area (1 000 ha) FRA Forest area (1 000 ha) Saatchi Argentina 2,396 1, ,400 79,000 Belize ,393 2,000 Bolivia 3,582 4, ,196 74,000 Brazil 52,745 47, , ,000 Chile 1,124 1, ,231 26,000 Colombia 5,488 8, ,499 84,000 Costa Rica ,605 4,000 French Guiana 1, ,082 3,000 Guatemala ,657 8,000 Guyana 1,348 2, ,205 19,000 Honduras ,192 9,000 Mexico 1,688 2, ,802 68,000 Nicaragua ,114 8,000 Panama ,251 6,000 Peru 6,903 9, ,992 80,000 Suriname 2,553 1, ,758 14,000

16 Final remarks It is essential to improve country data in many aspects, and in particular Better data on area and in particular area trends. Changes often assessed by comparing independent studies or maps, and can therefore have substantial errors National forest inventories are the basis for stock assessments. Still, many of the most important countries in the region do not have a NFI; however many countries are planning or have started the process of implementing a NFI.

17 Remarks NFI data need to be complemented with good allometric equations for volume and biomass. There is very little data on below-ground biomass. Airborne LIDAR is a promising technology for nondestructive estimation of biomass. Still quite expensive. Does not replace a NFI as the NFI covers many more aspects than just biomass and carbon.

18 Status of national forest inventory in the Guiana Shield Country/area Forest Pop. C stock t/ Density /km 2 ha % of ha land area % a % a % a Total C stock (Mt C) Suriname 3 14, ,158 French Guiana ** 3 8, ,649 Brazil ** , ,862 Guyana 4 15, ,627 Average LA 47 80, ,350

19 Status of national forest inventory in the Guiana Shield Suriname Guiana Brazil French_Guiana Maps of the Vegetable Cover of Brazilian Biomes PROBIO (MMA, Guyana Forestry Commission, FRIU Forest land area Map: NARENA SBB (But estimates for year 1999) 2007) NFI NA NA NA NA Deforestation NA NA Annual Classif.: Lindeman & Molenaa 1957, National Forest Guyana Forestry Policy 2003, Veg. Commission, Forest Class 1998, SBB Resources Information Unit Forest categories Recensement agricole, Direction de l Agriculture et de la Forêt, Granville et al., 1993, Recensement agricole, 2001, IFN 2008, Gond V., 2002, Eva, H., et al Linear Extrapolation based on 1990 and 2006 PortalBio/MMA 2002 ONF Afforestation/refore station NA NA ABRAF of 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009 & IBGE, 2008, Bracelpa 2002 Plantations ECEREX 1990, 2000, 2005 et 2010

20 Status of national forest inventory in the Guiana Shield Volume Suriname Guiana Brazil French_Guiana FELFILI (1994, 1997, 2001), PEREIRA,(1987), BRASILEIRO (1988), REZENDE 2002: ( ), Higuchi et al ( ), Andrade and Higuchi (2000, 2002, 2004, 2006) Silva (1994), Carvalho, Oliveira (1993), Sá (1998), Carvalho, Zákia (1994), Isaia, Verslype, Gariglio (1992) Growing stock: Surinam Forest Inventory 1973, Extraction: LBB yearly statistics Default ONF-CTFT 1970, ONF-CTFT 1972, ONF , Gazel 1983, ONF 1998 REZENDE (2002), SANTOS et al (2001), CASTRO (1996), FELFILI (1994), FELFILI, SILVA (2001), HIGUCHI et al (1994), HIGUCHI etal (1998, p ), HIGUCHI et al (1998, p ), HIGUCHI M (2004), FEARNSIDE (1994), HIGUCHI et al (1994) Biomas s Poels (1987), K. Tjon (1998) Default BCEF NA Default Specific NA RS Default Default Specific Specific Dead Wood Default Default Specific Specific Carbon content Default Default Specific Default Litter Default Default Specific Default SOC Default Default Specific Default Utilisation de données sources des années (inventaires papetiers)

21 Status of national forest inventory in the Guiana Shield Fires Suriname Guiana Brazil French Guiana Forest sector environmental assessment plan 2003 NA Perturbati ons NA NA Volume extracted SBB 2000 & 2005 IBAMA ( , , ), INPE ( , ) ONF, EMBRAPA FLORESTAS ( ) ONF, Forest Sector Information Report, Guyana IBGE ( ) ONF (annual)

22 The regional workshop is divided into 4 sessions: 22

23 Designing a NFI for REDD+ purposes Accounting & reporting objectives of REDD+ Report the anthropogenic impact on carbon-stock changes in, and other emissions from, forest carbon pools Account for the change, in carbon-stock changes and other emissions, associated with mitigation actions To ensure comparability among accounted quantities, we need to calculate estimates that are systematically neither over nor under the true value so far as can be judged and with an associated uncertainty reduced so far as practicable There is not any reference to conservativeness in COP decision related to REDD+ activities However, COP Decision taken in Warsaw on FRL ask for providing justification of why omitted pools and/or activities were deemed not significant; which means that nonsignificant pools may be excluded from accounting

24 Carbon stock assessment for REDD+ under the UNFCCC.requested developing country Parties aiming to undertake the REDD+ activities, [ ], to develop: A national strategy or action plan Elements requested to be developed The Cancun Agreements (Decision 1/CP.16) Forest reference emission level and/or forest reference level A robust and transparent national forest monitoring system for the monitoring and reporting REDD+ activities A system for providing information on how the safeguards are being addressed and respected establish, according to national circumstances and capabilities, robust and transparent national forest monitoring systems and, if appropriate, sub-national systems as part of national forest monitoring systems that: Use a combination of remote sensing and ground-based forest carbon inventory approaches for estimating, as appropriate, anthropogenic forest-related greenhouse gas emissions by sources and removals by sinks, forest carbon stocks and forest area changes; According to Decision 4/CP15: to use the most recent IPCC guidance and guidelines, as adopted or encouraged by the COP.

25 Linking the different elements/ functions of the national system for the preparation of the GHG inventory Establish & maintain IA Ensure Designate Make available Assign responsibilities Elaborate a QA/QC plan Establish processes Improvement plan Analyze Estimate in accordance with GL Complete data collection Assess quality Report Control Review Improvement based on review Archive Make accessible Transparency Security

26 Sustainability of the forest monitoring system Forestry Techno.& scientific progresses can support different sectors/national objectives Biodiversity BUT, they need to be ADOPTABLE ADAPTABLE FEASIBLE AND REQUIRE AN ADEQUATE INSTITUTIONAL & LEGAL FRAMEWORK Border Mapping National Defense

27 Cross-cutting issues Regional networking; Data availability and accessibility; Regional collaboration; Communication. Etc.