Socio-Economic Analysis Report for Travel Management

Transcription

1 United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service Southwestern Region Socio-Economic Analysis Report for Travel Management Questa Ranger District Carson National Forest Prepared by: /s/ Jack D. Carpenter September 5, 2011 JACK D. CARPENTER Natural Resource Planner/IDT Leader for Travel Management

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3 Summary There are immeasurable economic effects by managing the transportation system (road and trails open to public use) of the Questa Ranger district. The economic center of the entire study area is Taos, New Mexico outside the boundaries of the Carson National Forest. Within the study area two communities, Questa and Red River have distinct economic bases. Economic models work better at a larger landscape level rather than at a small more isolated community level. Neither Questa nor Red River have diverse economies allowing resilience in tough economic times. Each of these communities is forced to focus on the known strengths such as tourism or the mining industry. Changes in the known strength sectors could lead to increased tensions within the local economy resulting in a stagnant economy. The small change, 15 miles of road and trail added and 15 miles of road and trail removed in alternative 1, for example, does not show a measurable change in the economic structure of the either of the communities. A change in the hundreds of miles of added or removed roads and trails for public use would likely show an increase or decrease in economic measures at the local level. The changes at the study are level would likely show no change in economic measures due to size of the larger economy. The social aspects may be changed by management of the transportation system. For example, the location of fuelwood collection areas may change necessitating changes in retrieval of the fuelwood resource. The number of homes using wood for fuel is larger percentagewise than the United States. The changes in the transportation do not preclude obtaining fuelwood. There is no impact other than a possible restriction in timing and change of locations for the removal of fuelwood. Fuelwood permits would still be issued to requestors. Roads and trails would still be available for use by the recreating public, outfitter guides, and permittees. The Questa community is more tied to use of the national forest and private lands to produce needed products such as wood resources, plant resources (medicinal for example), and local family recreation including hunting. The Red River community is more tied to the use of national forest lands to provide opportunities for tourists to travel within the national forest and provide services for the tourists. Economics Social/Economic Analysis Study Area The study area for the social analysis is the Questa Ranger district which lies in Taos County. Economic data is readily available at the country level with some data available at the zip code level. Where possible economic data for communities within or adjacent to the district will be displayed. Comparison with state and national data will be displayed. The Questa travel management area data comprises several communities from Taos, New Mexico north to the Colorado state line, east and west roughly the Rio Grande on the west and the county line on the east. Communities within this analysis include Amalia, Costilla, Questa, Red River, Lama, San Cristobal and Taos, New Mexico. Several of these communities are unincorporated such as Lama, Costilla, and San Crisobal; others are incorporated such as Questa and Red River. The communities are limited in population with estimated resident population of Red River of approximately 520, Questa approximately 2,700, Other local communities near the Questa Ranger District include Costilla, Amalia, La Lama and San Cristobal The majority of these small communities contain few local stores and other infrastructure. The larger communities such as Questa and Red River contain local community stores and increased infrastructure such as water and sewer systems. Taos is the nearest community with larger chain stores, and increased Socio-Economic Effects Report for Travel Management on the Questa RD 1

4 infrastructure. The smaller communities tend to be rural and dependent on the larger nearby communities such as Taos, New Mexico or Alamosa, Colorado. The study area data compares Census data from 2000 and 2010 where available Some of the data sources include the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, state and local governing bodies, and non government organizations. The communities within the study area have varying economic bases with ranching/farming being a predominate use in many and others based on tourism. Others depend heavily on mining which fluctuates due to market conditions beyond the state and even national level. The majority of the communities are rural in nature with limited diversity in the economic structure. Models Available Several computer models are available to convert raw economic/employment information into comparisons more visually understood. The raw data consists of tables of numbers, comparison charts, and graphs. Economic data is generally collected at the county level. Community wide data is sometimes available at the zip code level. The smaller the geographic area the data usability becomes suspect or easily identifiable to specific individuals or businesses. Models often combine similar industries to prevent this identification. Governmental data follows definitions which preclude identification of specific industries and or individuals in the economic spectrum of the data collection area. These are known limitations in the models. Economic Profile System Community (EPSC) The Economic Profile System Community (EPSC) is designed to allow users to automatically and efficiently produce detailed socioeconomic profiles at a variety of geographic scales, county, state, and national, using the spreadsheet program Microsoft Excel. Databases used for EPSC profiles are obtained from the Bureau of the Census. Profiles contain tables and figures that illustrate long-term trends in population; employment and personal income by industry; average earnings; business development; retirement and other nonlabor income; commuting patterns; agriculture; and earnings by industry. ESPC was developed in partnership with the Bureau of Land Management by the Sonoran Institute, and continues to be refined and improved under the auspices of Headwaters Economics as contracted by the several government agencies which includes the Forest Service. This model and the following model have been combined into a single model. The new model, EPC-HDT is available through Headwaters Economics ( This model was not used due to the difficulty in combining/aggregating data to produce a meaningful analysis. The data was compared on a county to county basis with the EPS data. The use of data collected nearly a decade past while more recent data is available can give skewed results. Model profiles constructed with this data are included in the project record for comparison purposes. 2 Socio-Economic Effects Report for Travel Management on the Questa RD

5 Economic Profile System (EPS) The economic profile system (EPS) was designed to allow users to produce detailed socioeconomic profiles automatically and efficiently at a variety of geographic scales, county, state, geographic areas, national, using the spreadsheet program Microsoft Excel. Profiles contain tables and figures that illustrate long-term trends in population; employment and personal income by industry; average earnings; business development; retirement and other nonlabor income; commuting patterns; agriculture; and earnings by industry. Databases used for EPS profiles are from: Bureau of the Census including County Business Patterns; Bureau of Labor Statistics; and the Regional Economic Information System (REIS) of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. EPS was developed in partnership with the Bureau of Land Management the Sonoran Institute and continues to be refined and improved under the auspices, Headwaters Economics as contracted by the several government agencies which includes the Forest Service. This model and the above model have been combined into a single model. The new model, EPC-HDT is available throught Headwaters Economics ( IMPLAN (IMpact analysis for PLANning) It has long been recognized that even localized economic, socio-political, or resource management changes can have widespread ripple effects on a region's employment, production, income, and natural resource base. "IMPLAN", short for IMpact analysis for PLANning, is one of the analysis tools. It is designed to assist the analyst in tracing these ripple effects through an affected region. The IMPLAN system consists of: A rich database of socio-economic information, Software which constructs a model of an economy delineated by U.S., county, and/or zip code boundaries, and An analysis program that estimates the impacts of projects, programs, policies, and economic changes on a region. Features of IMPLAN include: Detailed reports on a model region can be produced describing trade, production, consumption, taxes, welfare and social security payments, savings and investment, debt, employment, and income. A flexible analysis scale. Model scale can vary anywhere from the level of a community up to the nation as a whole. Complex economic interactions are clearly modeled and reported. Multifaceted economic impacts can be modeled efficiently and inexpensively. This facilitates with- or without analysis, and the comparison of alternatives. The modeling process is flexible. Data, production functions, and trade relationships can all be edited by the analyst. The outputs from IMPLAN are often difficult to understand and interpret. The size of the inputs and outputs generally run in the millions of dollars and tens of thousands of items. Use in a small area may exaggerate or simple not show any change from the current levels. Socio-Economic Analysis Report for Travel Management on the Questa RD 21

6 The IMPLAN model is used for regional/forest level estimations. The travel management analysis process does not lend itself to use of this model. The lack of industrial output (conversion of raw materials), the rural character of the area, and centralized location of larger population centers with larger more established infrastructure skews the results. Chamber of commerce data was collected where possible. This data was then compared to a sample IMPLAN model run. The model results indicated the ranger district involved and the local communities within or adjacent to the boundaries would not show any economic changes. QuickSilver (An Application for Economic Efficiency Analysis) Quick-Silver is a fast, flexible program for financial and economic analysis of resource management and capital investment projects. It provides a convenient and consistent way to figure the dollars and cents criteria needed to determine if one management action costs less or has a better payoff than another. Quick-Silver helps standardize economic analysis methods through sharing of project files and a comprehensive set of user-defined management activities so that the same costs and benefits can be used for similar projects. While Quick-Silver doesn't project the consequences of management -- timber yields or other forest outputs -- users have plenty of flexibility to build project alternatives by including costs, revenues, and non-market benefits that occur now and are expected in the future. Once all the project alternatives and their costs, revenues, and benefits are defined, Quick-Silver takes over to calculate a variety of financial and economic measures, such as: Present Net Value (PNV) Net Annual Equivalent (NAE) Annual Cash flows Since 1984, Quick-Silver has been used by private industry, consulting foresters, and government agencies to analyzed projects and programs. Economic Impact Decision Support System (DSS), Version (Central Oregon Recreation Services, CORS) This model was developed to estimate the economic impact of outdoor recreation visits and associated expenditures. This model uses the Forest Service National Visitor Use Monitoring results. In the case of the Carson national forest the first round results are used. The model is a forestwide model and has some difficulty at smaller scales. The model does not go below the ranger district due to the input data. The model inputs can be adjusted to account for differences based on local knowledge of the recreational opportunities. The model does not account for areas lacking recreational facilities or communities lacking support facilities. Nor does the model adequately include costs of area recreational opportunities. Model outputs are in the project record New Mexico Gross Receipt Tax The gross receipt tax collected in the incorporated communities was used when readily available. The business categories amounts were converted to percentage of receipts for the month. These percentages were graphed to display the economic sectors of the local economy. The available data is included in the project record. 4 Socio-Economic Effects Report for Travel Management on the Questa RD

7 Models Used This analysis looked at each of the above models and interfaces. The IMPLAN model was chosen as the best model to represent the study area. This model permits aggregation of data, and individualized data by state, county, and zip code.. The model outputs are included as appendices to this report. IMPLAN The IMPLAN model is used for regional/forest level estimations. The travel analysis process does not lend itself to use of this model. The lack of industrial output (conversion of raw materials), the rural character of the area, and centralized location of larger population centers with larger more established infrastructure skews the results. Chamber of commerce data was collected where possible. This data was then compared to a sample IMPLAN model run. The model results indicated the ranger district involved and the local communities within or adjacent to the boundaries would not show any economic changes. DSS (CORS) This model gives estimated at a forest scale. This model does not easily lend itself to use at a district level. The input data is at the forest level Where possible a district area can be modeled if the recreational activity breakdown versus the forest level is known. An example would be ski area located on one district within the forest. All ski area activities could be attributed to the single district. A series of model runs are included in the project record for the analysis area. Differences between alternatives are small. This model used data collected by the Forest Service. This model examines the data from the Forest Service and does not look at information at the community level data as does robust models such as IMPLAN. New Mexico Gross Receipts Tax This model effort to graph the different sectors of the local economy gives a visual picture of the Red River economy. Areas lacking a manufacturing sector often on based on an economy more dependent on influences from outside the locality. See attached charts in Appendix A. Demographics Table 1 provides a summary of population information for the United States, New Mexico, Taos County, and some local communities. The table indicates the population of some local areas. For example, Taos County s population in 1990 was nearly 23,000 and has increased to over 31,000 in Normally data releases are behind about 2 to 3 years. The combined data show the county population growth at about the same as state growth, while the community data show an overall increase in population. Population growth is not uniform across the county or particular communities. Socio-Economic Analysis Report for Travel Management on the Questa RD 21

8 Table 1. Population data for study area, New Mexico, and United States from 1990 to 2009 Area Average Annual Growth 1990 to 2009 (percent) Red River, NM Questa, NM 1,707 1,864 1, Taos County 23,118 29,979 31, New Mexico 1,515,069 1,819,046 2,009, United States 248,709, ,421, ,006, Source: US Census American Factfinder 2010 Housing A summary of housing and vacancy rates in 2000 for the study area, the state, and the nation is provided in Table 2. The data indicates housing units available in the study area. The data indicates available housing units above the state and nearly twice the national levels. Table 2. Housing and Vacancy Rate, 2000 Area Housing Units Housing Vacancy Rate Red River, NM Questa, NM Taos County 17, New Mexico 780, United States 115,904, Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 Income Change 1970 to 2006 The income levels of the study area have increased over time. Using 1970 as a base year with a value of 100 (does not equal actual income) and comparing the change over time against the 1970 level, Table 3 shows an increase of nearly 3.5 times the income levels in This roughly equates to a per capita income level of $26,000. The income levels have increased over time. The recent downturn in the economy is not shown, as data collection has not been completed. The data should be available in the next 2 to 3 years. In summary, the income levels have grown in the 1 The Town of Red River receives a high number of visitors during the winter and summer; therefore, seasonal populations can substantially increase from these figures for year-round residents. 6 Socio-Economic Effects Report for Travel Management on the Questa RD

9 aggregated area about 3.5 times, with the majority of the growth at the county level, primarily Taos County. However, data are not readily available for the Red River and Questa communities. In 2000, the last data (USCB 2000) collected from these communities show the per capita income in Red River, NM to be $17,883 and in Questa, NM to be $13,393. Using the increase for Taos County from 2000 to 2006, a rough estimate is per capita income increased to $25,420 and $19,039, respectively. Table 3. Income growth since 1970 (index year) Area Income Growth Compared to 1970 (index level of 100) Taos County New Mexico United States Source: Economic Profile System 2008 Aggregate County Wages and Employment Table 4 gives a snapshot of Taos County s industry sector and employment levels as a percentage of total employment in The data indicate nearly 66 percent of the employment is located in the service sector, while about 14 percent is in the goods producing (e.g., manufacturing) sector. The long term implication is the money coming into the localized economy leaves the local area fairly quickly. This is not to say the monies do not circulate within the economy, but many of the needs (supplies) for a service sector based economy are purchased outside the area (money migrates out), which gives an indication of the local economy. The majority of jobs are located in the population centers and not within the boundaries of the Questa Ranger District. Estimates from the New Mexico gross receipts for Red River indicate about 180 to 244 returns for gross receipts taxes, with an average of 213 for 26 different months from 2008 to Using the 2000 Census data, an estimate of a little over 400 individuals are either business owners or employees of local businesses or government agencies. Table 4. Aggregated county employment in 2006 Employment Percent of Total Total private and public 11, Total private 9, Goods Producing 1, Natural resources and mining Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting 16 0 Mining Construction 1,054 9 Manufacturing (incl. forest products) Socio-Economic Analysis Report for Travel Management on the Questa RD 21

10 Employment Percent of Total Service Providing 7, Trade, transportation, and utilities 1, Information Financial activities Professional and business services Education and health services 1, Leisure and hospitality 2, Other services Unclassified Total Public 2, Federal government State government Local government 1, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) Table 5 displays changes in employment in the top 10 industries of Taos County. The data indicate a small downturn in employment of about 2 percent from 2007 to This coincides with an upturn in fuel prices, which is beyond the control of the local area. The data also indicate an economy dependant on outside incomes from visitors or tourists, as many business sectors are non-manufacturing sectors. The overall decline in employment was not accountable to travel management on NFS lands. The transportation system on the Carson National Forest was the same in time period of the data. Employment fluctuates based on income to businesses and the expected financial future. Table 5. Change in employment from 2007 to 2008 in top 10 industries of Taos County Description Employment Total change in county (426) Retail stores - miscellaneous (35) Food services and drinking places (57) Retail nonstores - direct and electronic sales (16) * Employment and payroll only (state & local govt, education) (188) * Employment and payroll only (state & local govt, non-education) 233 Retail stores - food and beverage 3 Hotels and motels, including casino hotels 1 Real estate establishments (114) Mining gold, silver, and other metal ore Socio-Economic Effects Report for Travel Management on the Questa RD

11 Description Employment Construction of new nonresidential commercial and health care structures 33 Offices of physicians, dentists, and other health practitioners (17) Total change of top 10 industries in 2008 from 2007 (178) Economic Effects Direct The economy of the study area, Taos County, New Mexico, is driven by the larger population centers such as Taos. Questa, Red River, and Taos Ski Valley are important economic centers within the study area but are dwarfed by the population and economic power of the Taos, New Mexico area. Red River has an aggressive Chamber of Commerce working to bring visitors to the community throughout the year with many activities showcasing the community. The Red River economy is driven by the service sector. The service sector depends heavily on incoming monies from outside the local area. Taos and Questa benefit from Red River activities since many access the Red River area from the south and the west.. Red River has businesses using the forest lands under special use permits during the summer and winter months. Some roads on the Questa ranger district are built to a high standard with gravel surfacing giving a 3 season road; others have native surfaces giving a fair weather road and are difficult to travel. The following tables give information concerning differences in mileage open to public travel using the existing condition and the proposed action alternatives. The information below shows the changes in proportion to the total currently existing system. Motorized trail changes range from no change to additions of 6 miles. The roads open to public travel change from the current 214 to an additional 5 miles or loss of up to 28 miles. The changes indicated are percentagewise of the existing system in the range of an increase of 2 percent to a decrease of 13 percent. The proposed decreases include road mileages that have already been closed but due to a change in reporting are included now. These types of changes in actuality are no real change to the transportation system except in a database (paper change)the proposed changes are spread across the entire district. The information noted in the tables below indicates no direct measurable effects to the regional nor the Red River economy due to proposed changes in the transportation system on the Questa ranger district. Table 6. Mileage changes for Questa Ranger District by alternative Item Miles of existing roadbed (level1) converted to motorized trail 50 and less in width Existing Condition Alternative 1 (proposed action) Alternative 2 (motorized) Alternative 3 (non motorized) Approx. total Socio-Economic Analysis Report for Travel Management on the Questa RD 21

12 Item miles of transportation system on NFS lands (rounded) Existing Condition Alternative 1 (proposed action) Alternative 2 (motorized) Alternative 3 (non motorized) Recreation and Tourism The economy of the study area, Taos County, New Mexico, is driven by the larger population center. Questa, Red River, and Taos Ski Valley are important economic centers within the study area, but are dwarfed by the population and economic power of the Taos area. Red River has an aggressive Chamber of Commerce working to bring visitors to the community throughout the year, with many activities showcasing the community. Since Red River is surrounded by the Carson National Forest, many of the visitors who come during the summer recreate on the national forest. Visitors, as well as, local residents, drive their motor vehicles along NFS roads and trails to sightsee, camp, access fishing areas and wilderness trailheads, or just to be outdoors. The Town of Red River s website ( includes a list provided by the Forest Service of roads and trails on the Questa Ranger District open to jeeps, ATVs, and motorcycles. The website also offers a list of eight businesses that rent jeeps or ATVs or provide jeep tours associated with using the national forest. Four of the Red River businesses (e.g., ATV/Jeep rentals, outfitter/guides) have special use permits authorizing them to use NFS roads and trails to generate income. A list on the website, entitled What to Do In and Around Red River, NM, identifies 36 summer activities. Most of the activities require the use of public highways to access various locations around Red River, Questa, Taos, Eagle Nest, Cimarron, Angel Fire, and Costilla. Red River is the hub, where many sites and events can be easily accessed. The first bullet states, Go Hiking and [mountain] biking on one of the many Carson National Forest trails. Further down the list are: take an ATV tour to Greenie Peak or Bobcat Pass rent a jeep and tour high mountain 4x4 trails take a guided jeep tour to see the area and learn about Red River history The Red River economy is driven by the retail trade, accommodation and food service, and the construction sectors (appendix A and C). The retail trade and accommodation and food service sector depend on incoming monies from outside the local area. Taos and Questa benefit from Red River activities, since many visitors access the Red River area from the south and the west. The Town is concerned the changes to the Questa RD s transportation system may limit or negatively impact local businesses or its visitors who are attracted to Red River because of its easy access to the national forest. After the first 30-day comment period for the Questa RD s proposed action (7/16/2009), the Town issued Resolution , A Resolution for Transportation Management, Carson National Forest on the Questa Ranger District (8/31/2009). The resolution includes, the Town recognizes the need and endorses responsible recreation use 10 Socio-Economic Effects Report for Travel Management on the Questa RD

13 in the Carson National Forest. The resolution recommended alternative 2, with changes. The changes were included in the resolution. Since the Town of Red River promotes a number of roads and trails open to on the Carson National Forest as a part of its marketing, the effects analysis described in the Recreation section ( Motorized Recreation in the Red River Area ) and the table in Appendix B of this report addresses how each alternative would affect these roads and trails. Under all the alternatives would not change the vast majority of the existing roads and trails on the Questa Ranger District (Table 7). The alternatives would affect motorized access to NFS lands in local areas, but would not prevent rs from recreating, gathering forest products, or accessing traditional areas of cultural or spiritual significance. The specific effects of each alternative on recreation, traditional uses, and cultural resources are discussed in more detail in specific sections of chapter 3. Middle Fork Lake Road has been closed to vehicular traffic since April There would be no discernable effects in the gross receipts tax tables from keeping the road closed to in alternatives 1 and 3. None of the alternatives would create a noticeable change in traffic volume on NFS roads and trails on Questa Ranger District roads. Motor vehicle use would still be heaviest between Memorial Day and Labor Day to access certain areas for sightseeing, viewing wildlife, camping, hiking, horseback riding, picnicking, family reunions, off-highway vehicle use, and recreational fishing. Non-commercial activities such as gathering firewood, digging up seedlings and saplings, collecting plants, or for other forest product uses would still occur under any alternative and roads would continue to be used by hunters during turkey (April-May) and deer and elk (September- December) hunting seasons and to cut a Christmas tree in December. Motor vehicle use on several roads that connect to private property would be restricted to administrative use only under alternatives 1, 2, and 3 (Table 8). This would reduce the potential for motorized trespass onto adjacent private lands. Private landowners in these areas would still be able to access their lands on these roads. Table 7. Roads where would be restricted to administrative use only, due to private land issues Road Description FR 490 Upper end of FR 77 Upper end of FR 54B & FR 54E FR FR 7C1 A portion of FR 490 would be rerouted around private land in the Foster Park area. FR 77 leads to private land at the upper end of Bitter Creek Canyon. Both roads lead onto private land in the Cabresto Park area. Only access to this NFS road is through private property in the El Rito area, north of Questa. Short road leading onto private land from FR 7A, in the Cerro Negro area. Socio-Economic Analysis Report for Travel Management on the Questa RD 21

14 Road Description FR 132A Upper portion of FR 7 Short road leading onto private land from FR 132, in the Lama area. Leads onto D.H. Lawrence Ranch in San Cristobal Indirect Effects The communities of Questa and Red River are both located in the study area. Both depend on transportation into and out of the communities for many aspects of their localized economies. State highways bisect both communities providing access to and from the communities. Access to the national forest is via the Forest Service system of roads and/or trails. These Forest Service roads are not available for year round use. They are used seasonally for resource removal (firewood) or visiting areas of the national forest. Many visitors to the area use the roads for recreational opportunities. The Questa Ranger District transportation system has been restricted to use of existing designated open roads since implementation of the Forest Plan in Off road travel has been restricted since the Some other roads have been closed to vehicular travel due to resource protection issues. The proposed are spread across the study area and are not concentrated in one area. Any indirect effects to the economy of the study are contraindicated. The economy of these areas, based on data obtained, do not depend solely on the lands within the Carson National Forest. While the Red River community might be expected to depend solely on the national forest lands, the data indicates tourism is a large percentage of the economy. The setting of the community within national forest lands draws many tourists. In addition, Red River has many activities designed to draw people to the community without actual interaction with national forest lands. Tourism based economies are subject to many factors outside the immediate community such as fuel prices, changes in the larger economy, weather both in the immediate community and the larger regional area, and a change in the type of individuals and families visiting the area (motorized enthusiasts to hikers for example) The proposals for travel management on the Questa Ranger District have no discernable indirect effects on economies of the local communities. Summary of Motorized Recreation Northern New Mexico communities depend on into and out of the Carson National Forest to support some of the local economies. State highways and some NFS roads bisect the national forest providing access to and from communities. Most of the NFS roads and trails are not available for year-round use, but are used seasonally for resource removal or visiting areas of the national forest. Table 7 displays the differences in miles of road and trail open to between the existing system and alternatives for the Questa RD. These proposed changes are spread across the entire Questa RD. 12 Socio-Economic Effects Report for Travel Management on the Questa RD

15 Table 7. Mileage changes between existing transportation system and alternatives, Questa RD Item Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3 Existing Condition Resulting transportation system in miles of road and trail Change in percent from the existing condition With the exception of permanently restricting to administrative use only on FR 487, alternative 1 would likely not have a noticeable effect on motorized recreation on the Questa RD. Most of these roads currently access private land, where the Forest Service has no legal access. Restricting to administrative use only on these roads would discourage the public from trespassing on private land. Alternative 1 would add 36 unauthorized route segments to the road system for any type of purpose. Most of these segments are user-created two-track routes within existing corridors. It is unlikely recreationists would notice a change in their camping and big game retrieval experience under alternative 1. When compared to alternative 1, alternative 2 would provide additional terrain for recreational. With 92 2 miles of corridor along designated roads, alternative 2 would provide more opportunities for camping out of a car or truck off a designated NFS road. However, the added corridors would not be in areas where conditions are the most favorable for motorized campers in the summer. Alternative 3 would reduce the number of miles of system roads and trails and eliminate corridors. This would have a negative effect on motorized recreation and the experience it provides for some people. The proposed changes from any alternative are spread across the entire Questa RD, while all of the changes to the motorized trail system are in the vicinity of Red River. The changes to both the roads and trails would not be noticeable to the average visitor to the national forest in alternatives 1 and 2; however, visitors to the Red River area would notice fewer miles of road and motorized trail that would be available for in alternative 3. Summary The economy of surrounding communities, based on data obtained, do not depend solely on the lands within the Carson National Forest. While the Red River community might be expected to depend on NFS lands, the data indicate tourism is a large percentage of the economy. The setting 2 The purpose for on 34 miles of existing corridor would change to dispersed camping and big game retrieval. The total includes removing existing corridor along 2 miles of road where would be restricted for administrative use only. Socio-Economic Analysis Report for Travel Management on the Questa RD 21

16 of the community, surrounded by the national forest draws many tourists. In addition, Red River has many activities designed to draw people to the community without actual interaction with NFS lands. Tourism based economies are subject to many factors outside the immediate community, such as fuel prices, changes in the larger economy, weather both in the immediate community and the larger regional area, and a change in the type of individuals and families visiting the area (motorized enthusiasts to hikers, for example). The proposals for travel management on the Questa Ranger District have no discernable indirect effects on economies of the local communities. The location of fuelwood collection areas may necessitate changes in retrieval of the fuelwood resource. However, the changes in the transportation system would not preclude obtaining fuelwood. There is no impact other than a possible restriction in timing and change of locations for the removal of fuelwood. Fuelwood permits would still be issued to anyone who wants to cut their own fuelwood on the national forest. Roads and trails would still be available for use by the recreating public, outfitter guides, and permittees. Cumulative Effects A travel management decision on the Questa RD would not change the social makeup of the study area nor preclude access to NFS lands. The public would still be able to visit the Questa RD to recreate, collect wood, hike the wilderness, camp, and hunt. Additionally, there are no proposed projects planned that would affect the social and economic environments of Taos County; therefore, there would be no cumulative impacts on the social or economic environments. 14 Socio-Economic Effects Report for Travel Management on the Questa RD

17 Environmental Justice Regulatory guidance for the evaluation of environmental justice includes both Executive Orders and Executive Order Federal Actions to Address Environmental Justice in Minority Populations and Low-Income Populations states each Federal agency shall make achieving environmental justice part of its mission by identifying and addressing, as appropriate, disproportionately high and adverse human health or environmental effects of its programs, policies, and activities on minority populations and low-income populations in the United States (U.S. 1994). Executive Order Protection of Children from Environmental Health Risks and Safety Risks - addresses the vulnerability and sensitivity of children stating, each Federal agency shall make it a high priority to identify and assess environmental health risks and safety risks that may disproportionately affect children; and shall ensure that its policies, programs, activities, and standards address disproportionate risks to children that result from environmental health risks or safety risks (U.S. 1997). The Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) defines a minority as individuals belonging to one of the following groups: American Indian or Alaskan Native; Asian or Pacific Islander; Black, not of Hispanic origin; or Hispanic (CEQ 1997). The Questa RD is located within Taos County. Percentages of Hispanics and American Indians comprise considerably higher proportions of Taos County, compared to New Mexico and the United States. The population center of the Questa RD is located within Taos County. Taos County has a large Hispanic and American Indian population. Both of these population groups are listed as minorities by the CEQ. Taos County includes Taos and Picuris Pueblo lands. Executive Order 12898, a low-income population is determined using annual statistical poverty thresholds from the U.S. Census Bureau (CEQ 1997). Estimates from 1999 indicate that a higher percentage of the populations of Taos County lived below poverty level as compared with the United States and New Mexico. The percentage of children under the age of 18 below poverty level in Rio Arriba County (23 percent) is higher than for the United States (17 percent). In addition, the proportion of children under 18 years of age in Rio Arriba and Taos Counties is either the same or slightly higher than the entire state of New Mexico, and 6 to 8 percent higher than the United States. Race and Ethnicity Census data indicate the majority of the population of the study area is Hispanic. 3 The Hispanic ethnicity exceeds the national level, with nearly 3 of 5 individuals identifying themselves as Hispanic. The majority of the remaining 2 of 5 individuals identify themselves as white or American Indian. Although the area is predominately Hispanic, it is comprised of three different ethnicities. 3 This analysis uses the definition from the 2000 Census. Socio-Economic Analysis Report for Travel Management on the Questa RD 23

18 Table 8. Race and ethnicity of the study area Ethnicity Red River Questa Taos County New Mexico United States Total % Total % Total % Total % Total % White alone , , , ,907,852 6 Black or African American alone American Indian and Alaska Native alone , , , , Asian alone , Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone Some other race alone Two or more races Not Hispanic or Latino Hispanic or Latino (of any race) , , , ,891, , ,224, , ,053, ,116, , , , ,305, Source: US Census Bureau, Census Socio-Economic Analysis Report for Travel Management on the Questa RD

19 Appendix A. Gross Receipts for Town of Red River Figure 1. Gross receipts tax by sector for the Town of Red River in 2008 Socio-Economic Analysis Report for Travel Management on the Questa RD 23

20 Figure 2. Gross receipts tax by sector for the Town of Red River in 2009 Figure 3. Gross receipts tax by sector for the Town of Red River in Socio-Economic Analysis Report for Travel Management on the Questa RD

21 Appendix B. Comparison of Alternatives Based on Roads/Trails Promoted by Red River Tourism Table 9. Roads and trails on the Questa RD, comparison of alternatives Road Cabresto Canyon (FR 134) Cabresto Lake Road (FR 134A) 4 th of July Canyon (FR 490) Garrapata Ridge (FR 9709R0) Existing Condition Motor vehicle use on FR 134 only. Seasonal designation in upper Cabresto Canyon motor vehicle use from late May to Dec 31. FR 134A (requires high clearance) accesses Cabresto Lake, Cabresto Lake Campground, and Lake Fork Trail trailhead into Latir Peak Wilderness. Motor vehicle use on FR 134A only. Motor vehicle use on FR 490 only. FR 970R0 extends 1.8 mi to Rio Grande Gorge rim. No existing corridor. Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3 Would add 9 unauthorized route segments (for any type of use, including motorized access to historic dispersed campsites) to the system. No change in seasonal designation. No change. No change. NOTE: This road is currently closed during the reconstruction of Cabresto Dam. Implementation is estimated to take 2 years. Would reroute FR 490 around PVT land and convert (4 th of July Canyon) to motorized trail for vehicles <50 wide and add seasonal designation from May 1 - Dec 31. Would restrict to administrative use only on the lower portion within drainage (0.9 mi) and add seasonal designation Would reroute FR 490 around PVT land. Maintain as an NFS road and add seasonal designation from May 1 - Dec 31. Would add 100 corridor to allow motor vehicle use for dispersed camping or big game retrieval and seasonal designation Would restrict on FR 490 to administrative use only and add seasonal designation from May 1 - Dec 31. Would restrict to administrative use only on entire FR 9709R0 (1.8 mi) and add seasonal designation from May 1 - Dec Socio-Economic Analysis Report for Travel Management on the Questa RD 23

22 Road Goose Lake (FR 486) Largo Lake Mallette Canyon (FR 597 and FR 491) Old Red River Pass (FR 488) Existing Condition Includes 100 corridor for camping, parking, & fuelwood gathering. Private land holding in San Cristobal area. Access via state, and county roads FR 597 connects with Cabresto Canyon Road from Red River. Provides access to private lands and FR 491. No corridors. Seasonal designation from late May to Dec 31. Portion of road on steep slope. No existing corridor. Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3 from May 1 - Dec 31. Would remove 100 corridor & add 4 unauthorized route segments (for any type of use, including motorized access to historic dispersed campsites) to the system and add seasonal designation from May 1 - Dec 31. from May 1 - Dec 31. No change to corridor. Would add seasonal designation from May 1 - Dec Would restrict on FR 486 to administrative use only and close motorized trail to Pioneer Road (FR 485). No change. No change. No change. Would add 3 unauthorized route segments (for any type of use, including motorized access to historic dispersed campsites) to the system and seasonal designation from May 1 - Dec 31. Would add 3 unauthorized route segments (for any type of use, including motorized access to historic dispersed campsites) to the system and seasonal Would add 3 miles of unauthorized route connecting FR 491 with FR 54C, 100 corridor along FR 597 and FR 491, and seasonal designation on FR 491 motor vehicle use from May 1 - Dec 31. No change to system. Would add seasonal designation from May 1 - Dec 31. Restrict motor vehicle use on FR 491 to administrative use only. Same as alternative Socio-Economic Analysis Report for Travel Management on the Questa RD

23 Road Pioneer Creek (FR 485) Cerro Negro (FR 7C) Trail Canyon (FR 54K) Middle Fork Lake Road (FR 487) Existing Condition Includes 100 corridor for camping, parking, & fuelwood gathering. Takes off from FR 7 in San Cristobal area. No existing corridor. No seasonal designation except by forest order. Road on steep slope and open seasonally in winter for oversnow use. No existing corridor. Seasonal designation from late May to Dec 31. Includes 100 corridor. Special order has not allowed motor vehicle use for safety reasons. Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3 designation from May 1 - Dec 31. Would remove 100 corridor. Canyon is too steep to add route segments. Would add seasonal designation from May 1 - Dec 31. Would add approx. 1 mile of unauthorized route to create a loop road off FR 7C and seasonal designation from May 1 - Dec 31. No change in system. Would add seasonal designation from May 1 - Dec 31. Would add 100 corridor along FR 7C for dispersed camping & big game retrieval and seasonal designation from May 1 - Dec 31. Would restrict on FR 485 to administrative use only and close motorized trail to Goose Creek Road (FR 486). Would restrict on FR 7C to administrative use only. No change. No change. No change. Would restrict on FR 487 to administrative use only and add 4 unauthorized route segments (for any type of use, including motorized access to historic dispersed campsites) of FR 487, near Middle No change. Same as alternative 1. Socio-Economic Analysis Report for Travel Management on the Questa RD 21

24 Road Greenie Peak/Midnight (FR 54 series 4 ) Existing Condition Includes 100 corridor for camping, parking, & fuelwood gathering. Seasonal designation (Jan 1- June 15). Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3 Fork Lake Trailhead. Would remove 100 corridor & add 10 unauthorized route segments (for any type of use, including motorized access to historic dispersed campsites). No change. Would remove 100 corridor. Motor vehicle use would be limited to designated road. Would change seasonal designation from July 1 to Dec series refers to a group of roads off FR 597 in the Greenie Peak area. Each road is numbered 54 followed by a letter (ex. 54C ). 22 Socio-Economic Analysis Report for Travel Management on the Questa RD

25 Appendix C United States IMPLAN Model US Copyright 2011 Minnesota IMPLAN Group, Inc. Model Information Model Year 2009 Value Added GRP $14,119,100,022,110 Employee Compensation $7,813,139,005,981 Total Personal Income $12,015,530,000,000 Proprietor Income $1,011,899,999,148 Total Employment 172,400,746 Other Property Type Income $4,269,361,007,462 Indirect Business Taxes $1,024,700,009,519 Number of Industries 436 Land Area (Sq. Miles) 3,536,278 Total Value Added $14,119,100,022,110 Area Count 1 Final Demand Population 307,006,600 Households 10,126,747,286,093 Total Households 117,178,100 State/Local Government $2,226,099,998,118 Average Household Income $102,541 Federal Government $1,149,402,629,490 Capital $1,837,803,019,836 Trade Flows Method Supply/Demand Pooling Exports $1,463,807,376,299 Model Status Multipliers Imports $1,850,107,338,900 Institutional Sales $834,652,931,929 Economic Indicators Shannon Weaver Index Total Final Demand: $14,119,100,039,007 Top Ten Industries Sector Description Employment Labor Income Output 413 Food services and drinking places 10,428,660 $224,703,600,000 $605,955,000, * Employment and payroll only (state & local govt, education) 10,261,000 $570,762,000,000 $648,393,800, * Employment and payroll only (state & local govt, noneducation) 8,316,000 $483,179,000,000 $548,898,200,000 Socio-Economic Analysis Report for Travel Management on the Questa RD 23

26 IMPLAN Model US Copyright 2011 Minnesota IMPLAN Group, Inc. 360 Real estate establishments 7,298,913 $105,985,800,000 $1,054,313,000, Wholesale trade businesses 5,889,220 $445,627,400,000 $1,166,098,000, Offices of physicians, dentists, and other health practitioners 4,570,333 $344,719,300,000 $580,323,400, Private hospitals 4,526,887 $302,391,000,000 $622,634,500, Construction of other new nonresidential structures 3,487,749 $173,585,900,000 $412,974,300, Employment services 3,427,707 $100,674,000,000 $146,838,000, Nursing and residential care facilities 3,121,963 $106,291,800,000 $183,462,200,000 Areas In the Model United States 22 Socio-Economic Analysis Report for Travel Management on the Questa RD