What drives deforestation and what stops it?

Transcription

1 What drives deforestation and what stops it? Jonah Busch, Ph.D. Transatlantic Dialogue on Reducing Deforestation in Supply Chains of Agricultural Commodities Chatham House-World Resources Institute Washington, DC October 23, 2014

2 What drives deforestation and what stops it? A review of spatially explicit econometric studies Kalifi Ferretti-Gallon and Jonah Busch Working paper: Policy brief: CGD Wonkcast: WWF Webinar: Article in The Economist: Open-access database Revise and resubmit at an academic journal Book: Why Forests? Why Now? (Seymour and Busch, 2015)

3 Main messages Agriculture is among the strongest and most consistent drivers of deforestation Insulating forested areas from the price signal created by demand for agricultural commodities is a promising approach for reducing deforestation (as are protected areas, payments, road planning) Which policies can muffle the agricultural price signal at the forest frontier most effectively remains an open question Supply-chain measures are part of a package to reduce deforestation 7 January

4 Commercial agriculture is a big driver of deforestation 52% 71% 55% >33%*

5 but it s not the ONLY driver of deforestation Biophysical characteristics Built environment Community characteristics Governance regimes

6 Spatially explicit econometric studies can disentangle multiple causal factors Spatial patterns of deforestation Spatial data layers of potential driver variables and covariates Multivariate analyses (regression or matching) 7 January

7 Growth of spatially explicit econometric studies, Europe (n=3) Cross-National (n=4) North America (n=2) Asia (n=27) Africa (n=11) Latin America/Caribbean (n=70)

8 Purpose of open-access database and meta-analysis Compile studies from across disparate scientific literatures Systematically review evidence in a way that literature reviews alone do not Compare the relative influence of drivers quantitatively Reconcile seemingly contradictory findings Arrive at general conclusions Identify understudied topics Suggest effective policies to stop deforestation Make data and studies easily available to future researchers 7 January

9 Methods Identified candidate studies from keyword searches and literature reviews Screened candidate studies based on 5 inclusion criteria Included 117 studies, 557 regressions, 1159 unique variables, 5605 coefficients Coded each co-efficient as +, -, or n.s. at 95% confidence level Polarized signs based on direction of dependent or independent variable Categorized 1159 uniquely named explanatory variables 40 meta-variables For each meta-variable, counted how many times the relationship with deforestation was observed to be positive, negative, or not significant. 7 January

10 Caveats Caveats to component studies Often conditional correlation, not causality Can t compare across countries Some important variables aren t mapped (e.g. political freedoms; corruption) Understudied variables (e.g. law enforcement; gender) In-depth site-specific understanding require case studies Caveats to meta-analysis Selection bias or publication bias? (results by focus) Overweighting prolific studies? (results by study) Geographical bias? (results by continent) Study quality? (results by journal) Meta-analysis does not investigate effect size 7 January

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12 Agriculture is among the most consistent drivers of deforestation

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14 Which policies can muffle the price signal to convert forests to agriculture? Supply chain commitments? Eco-labeling or certification? Moratorium on concessions? Credit restrictions? Agricultural subsidy reform? Land title reform? Bans on agricultural conversion? Deforestation-free jurisdictions? Increased value of standing forest? Increased production away from the forest frontier? 7 January

15 Consumer pressure and advocacy Positive incentives Responsible supply chains Deforestation-free Jurisdictions

16 Main messages Agriculture is among the strongest and most consistent drivers of deforestation Insulating forested areas from the price signal created by demand for agricultural commodities is a promising approach for reducing deforestation (as are protected areas, payments, road planning) Which policies can muffle the agricultural price signal at the forest frontier most effectively remains an open question Supply-chain measures are part of a package to reduce deforestation 7 January

17 Thank you! Thanks to WRI and Chatham House Questions and feedback 7 January

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20 Journal disciplines 7 January

21 More than half of 117 studies from just six countries 7 January