SEEA & REDD+ A mutually beneficial collaboration? Bruno Hugel REDD+ global technical advisor National REDD+ Strategies 25 September 2017

Transcription

1 1 SEEA & REDD+ A mutually beneficial collaboration? Bruno Hugel REDD+ global technical advisor National REDD+ Strategies 25 September 2017

2 Aspects explored in this presentation 1. Contributions from SEEA land/forest accounts in integrating forest values into planning 2. Contributions from national REDD+ processes to land/forest accounts

3 Forests and Climate Change Land (incl. Forests) play important role reg. climate change, NDCs/SDGs, providing livelihoods etc Forest cover Bhutan, Gabon, Suriname ECONOMIC GROWTH but threatened Myanmar Indonesia Cameroon REDD+ Stabilization China, Costa Rica, Vietnam 0 % India, Bangladesh

4 How can countries reduce their deforestation while developing?? REDD+ = Approach to incentivize (financially) developing countries reducing forest cover loss Under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Relying particularly on Results-based payments through Green Climate Fund (GCF)

5 4 elements required to access REDD+ Results-Based Payments What can we do to reduce deforestation AND contribute to development? (meta-strategy) REDD+ National Strategy or Action Plan National Forest Monitoring System How much forest/carbon, where? Changes over time? How do we ensure that we minimize negative impacts / maximize positive? Safeguard Information system Forest Reference Level How is it likely to evolve in a BAU scenario?

6 What can we do to reduce deforestation AND contribute to development? 1. Contributions from SEEA to REDD+ REDD+ National Strategy or Action Plan National Forest Monitoring System Safeguard Information system Forest Reference Level

7 Drivers of Deforestation and forest Degradation relative importance (per region) of drivers of: a. Deforestation: Agriculture: Commercial Subsistence 80% deforestation worldwide b. Degradation: 70% increase in the demand for food by 2050 (FAO) Intensification + extension of surfaces (-> Need Optimisation!) AP Logging: >70% forest degradation in Latin America & (sub)tropical Asia AP

8 (Indirect vs. Direct) Drivers of DD 8 Case Study: The Philippines DIRECT DRIVERS INFRASTRUCTURE EXTENSION AGRICULTURAL EXPANSION WOOD EXTRACTION Transport (roads, rail) Markets (public & private) Settlements (rural & urban) Public service (water, electric) Private company (hydro, mining) Permanent cultivation (commercial vs subsistence) Shifting cultivation Cattle ranching Colonization (resettlement, transmigration) Commercial (state-run) Fuelwood (mainly domestic use) Polewood (mainly domestic use) Charcoal production (domestic & industrial uses) OTHER FACTORS Environmental factors (land characteristics soil quality, topography) Biophysical drivers (triggers, e.g. fires, droughts, pests) Social drivers (conflict, social disorder, economic shocks) DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS Natural increment Migration Population density Population distribution Life cycle features ECONOMIC FACTORS Market growth and commercialization Economic structures Urbanization & industrialization Special variables (e.g. price increases) TECHNOLOGICAL FACTORS Agro-technical change Applications in the wood sector Agricultural production factors POLICY & INSTITUTIONAL FACTORS Formal policies (e.g. on economic development) Policy climate (e.g. corruption) Property rights CULTURAL FACTORS Public attitudes, values & beliefs (e.g. unconcern about forests, frontier mentality) Individual & household behavior (e.g. rentseeking) INDIRECT DRIVERS

9 How can countries reduce their deforestation while developing?? Improving/optimizing: Use of land/forests through: Conservation of natural forests Forest restauration (natural/plantations) Through: Incentives Regulatory framework (policies, monitoring, enforcement) Integrated Land Use Planning (LUP) Strategic Environment Assessment Envt. & Social impact Assessment Greening agricultural subsidies Agri intensification (with LUP) etc

10 So, SEEA-Land/Forest accounts & REDD+??? How to integrate the real (many) values of Forests into (land use) planning? Better valuation of forest & contributions from forests: to GDP More widely (national balance sheet,?) Consistent, systematic, nation-wide Systematization of forest stats integration into national statistical framework: to facilitate integrated planning(?) SEEA-Land/forest accounts helping?

11 E.g. Ethiopia - Contribution of forests to national income Forest contribution to GDP strongly undervalued: 12.86% of GDP (cash & in-kind / compatible with SNA): o About half ( only ) from forest industries (undervalued by 38%) o Largest market income benefits: fuelwood & livestock fodder (62% of forest use benefits together) Non-market benefits (willingness to pay): 2.4B ETB Reported separately from GDP

12 Forest valuation study - Results - Ethiopia

13 2. Contributions from national REDD+ processes to land/forest REDD+ accounts (?) National Strategy or Action Plan National Forest Monitoring System How much forest/carbon, where? Changes over time? Safeguard Information system Forest Reference Level How is it likely to evolve in a BAU scenario?

14 National Forest Monitoring System How much forest/carbon, where? Changes over time? Related GHG emissions / removals OUTPUTS Monitor REDD+ outcomes NATIONAL FOREST MONITORING SYSTEM MONITORING MRV Satellite Land Monitoring System OUTPUTS Forest area changes Data sharing, transparency Local knowledge, data & validation Integrate with existing systems Web Interface Community Monitoring Other Forest- Related Monitoring Systems National Forest Inventory GHG Inventory Forest carbon stock changes Forest-related GHG emissions / removals

15 Land change matrix (Includes Sustainable Management of Forests) Conservation of forest carbon stock Following IPCC guidance Used to define Forest Reference Level submitted by countries to UNFCCC (goes through Technical Assessment ) Results reported periodically through BUR (Biennial Update Reports) = Base for results-based payments) 1 possible national interpretation of Deforestation, Degradation, Conservation, SMF, enhancement 15

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17 Questions Can GSOs use data from NFMS? Which definition of forest? Consistent with NSO data? UNFCCC vs others What mechanism to systematically integrate forest stats into national statistics? How to link Min/Dept of Forestry & GSO? Which datasets used for planning? Which forest accounts to prioritize? Use of National wealth rather than just GDP in planning? Comments/ answers most appreciated!

18 20 MERCI!

19 India

20 Landscape change + high emissions 70 Mha forests - 24% national land territory (FRA 2015) Implementation of National Forest Policy = Declining revenue from forests in some states E.g ban on green felling by Supreme Court in many States Some States considering forests a net liability rather than source of revenue (no agriculture expansion & no logging )

21 Reform of intergovernmental fiscal transfer system India s Finance Commission recognized: Importance of Forests Perverse incentives that state & local governments had to undervalue & mismanage forests th Commissions - grants allocated according to Forest cover & Forest quality 14 th - Tax devolution - Forest Cover 1 of 5 criteria for tax revenue allocation from Central govt to States Tax revenue $200 billion/year Tax devolution to States $6 billion/year to States based on forests Amounts to $120 per hectare per year and is competitive with agriculture production earnings More RBF for forest conservation than any other country in the world (incl. Norway) Is revenue neutral! (no cost for the central govt)