Future of Forestry Sector and Innovations

Transcription

1 Future of Forestry Sector and Innovations Dr Anssi Niskanen Director Future Forum on Forests of Finland Socrates/Erasmus IP INNO-FOREST May 2005 Iisalmi, Finland

2 The future success of the finnish forest sector depends on: - innovations in the processes of the traditional forest sector (forestry, wood processing) - innovations on new products and services THE CAVALIER BUTTERFLY THEORY

3 Content PART 1 PART 2 PART 3 PART 4 PART 5 Future Forum on Forests: A new innovation in finnish forest policy design Why knowledge on futures may not facilitate innovations? Main drivers for the future of forest sector in Finland Does the big picture support the idea of innovatism? Two main innovation-based strategies for the finnish forest sector

4 PART 1 Future Forum on Forests: A new innovation in finnish forest policy design

5 Administration Forum sturucture and organisation Ministry of Agricuture and Forestry, Department of Forestry Nominate to follow NFP Report National Forest Council (stakeholders)

6 Administration Forum sturucture and organisation Ministry of Agricuture and Forestry, Department of Forestry Nominate to follow NFP Report Private sector National Forest Council (stakeholders) Particip. Forest sector & non forest sector organisations

7 Administration Forum sturucture and organisation Ministry of Agricuture and Forestry, Department of Forestry Nominate to follow NFP Report Private sector National Forest Council (stakeholders) Particip. Forest sector & non forest sector organisations Foresight University of Joensuu Nominate Implementation group Invite Co-operate Academics Expert group

8 Forum sturucture and organisation Administration Ministry of Agricuture and Forestry, Department of Forestry Nominate Nominate to follow NFP Report Private sector Nominate National Forest Council (stakeholders) Particip. Forest sector & non forest sector organisations Report Co-operate Participate Foresight University of Joensuu Nominate Implementation group Report Guide Steering group Invite Co-operate Academics Expert group

9 Foresight & Futures Research Private sector Forward planning NFP 2010 Foresight Enterprises Administration Participatory networking Future Forum on Forests Futures research Academics Trend extrapolation Delfoi Scenario techniques Systems dynamics

10 Four key activities in the Forum implementation Futures studies of four working groups - Forest technology - Silviculture -Environment -Forest industry - Social sustainability Implementation group Contracted futures studies Internet: Organised futures seminars

11 PART 2 Why knowledge on futures may not facilitate innovations?

12 Signal of change. Environment Data Only part of the signals are more closely considered. Surveillance filter Cognitivity/ mentality filter Perception The role of filters in transferring signals of change into desicion making (after Igor Ansoff 1984) Power filter Information Action Is the signal relevant for the process in question? Risk that only those signals supporting existing views survive. The role of power in deciding which signals are finally accepted. Change of action. New innovation.

13 Curse of a winner Forest sector traditionally a strong player in finnish economy - devaluations of finnish currency prior to state support for forestry, industry, education, R&D - highly developed institutional infrastructure - similar values, trust, state support => high social capital Wood products growth in Europe slow - decreasing forest income & wood supply Need for structural changes in the sector + new innovations BUT: Curse of a winner ---dueto successin the past, the sector is incapability to undergo a transformation & there is a threat to a loss of competitiveness The high social capital is an obstacle for innovativeness.

14 PART 3 Main drivers for the future of forest sector in Finland: - Globalisation -Ageingof population

15 Investments of forest industries USA 1980 Investments in P&P industries Finland and Sweden 1990s Innovations R&D Russia Far-East China 2020? Investments in P&P industries Growing markets and fast-growing plantations in South-America Growing markets in Asia

16 GDP growth (% annually) 12,0 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0, China Russia BUL and ROM USA New EU member states EU 15 EU 15 New EU members Bulgaria&Romania USA China Russia Lähde: Tilastokeskus

17 Employment and employees in Finland (1000 people) Labour force Unemployed Potential number of employees Employees Impacts: - State budget decreasing - Availability of employees - The role of public sector under pressure - Entrepreneurship increasing - Rural under-development Source: Työministeriö Työvoima 2020 loppuraportti.

18 Population, 1000 inhabitants Labour force development in North-Karelia province in Eastern Finland age class : -32 % = inhab a a 65 a Source: Tilastokeskus, Väestöennuste kunnittain

19 Availability of labour in forestry Kysyntä: henkilötyövuotta Tarjonta: henkilöä ! Väestön kehitykseen perustuva tarjontaennuste Selitysmalliin perustuva tarjontaennuste Ammattimaisen työvoiman kysyntä (todennäköinen skenaario) Työvoiman kysyntä sisältää metsänhoitotyöt, manuaalisen hakkuun, koneellisen puunkorjuun (ml. metsäenergian korjuu ja haketus) ja puutavaran autokuljetuksen. Työvoiman tarjonta sisältää kokopäiväisessä ja ympärivuotisessa työsuhteessa olevat metsurit ja metsäkonekuljettajat sekä metsäkoneyrittäjät ja kaikki puutavaran autokuljetuksen työllise t. Lähde: Jaakko Pöyry Management Consulting.

20 Forest industry development * Wood availability from the finnish forests probably decreasing + risk that wood import from Russia will face difficulties = it is not realistic to expect that forest industry will make green field investments in Finland * Despite the maintenance investments, the industry capacity gets older (some areas where forest industry will make disinvestments, emphasise of forestry will differ in different parts of the country?) Investments in the future elsewhere than in Finland Maintenance investments in Finland, which increase the wood use by one million m3 annually. * Companies has to grow elsewhere. This is usefull for Finland as far as this supports R&D development and innovations in Finland. Wood availability: -forest policy: to support wood flow to the markets at reasonable price (extension, taxation, ) -forest policy: to support more efficient wood production, but how acceptable this goal is in the society today?

21 PART 4 Does the big picture support the idea of innovatism?

22 Previous technology replaced Technology established Incremental development Interruption Established technology Time Products innovations Process innovations

23 YES!

24 Tulevaisuudentutkimus Mika Mannermaa Oy

25 YES!

26 Industrial society: - industrial rationality - more out of more Information society: - post-industrial transition - more and better out of less Global networking-/ talent-/ experience-/ dream society? - post-industrial rationality - more and different in different ways CRISIS, C R I S I S Current information society represents late industrial crisis between two stable periods in societal development Futures Research Academy

27 YES!

28 MAINLY INCREMENTAL INNOVATIONS Energy Coniferos sawnwood Plywood The cavalier butterfly -theory INCREMENTAL & RADICAL INNOVATIONS Coniferos sawnwood Plywood Wood construction Energy Wood construction Wood chemistry Paper and paperboard Pulp and paper Paperboard Food industries Services Yet unknown opportunities

29 Logging residues for energy Logging residues m3/ha Logging residue potential m3/km2 > <5 Cumulative amount (%) Contour area class Cumulative % 10 % 25 % 50 % 75 % 100 %

30 Wood chemistry for health products MeO O O HO HO Lignan from spruce inner branches OH OMe

31 Birch sap Aurinkolehto Oy (InnoSuomi Award 2002)

32 Wood for ethanol & ethanol for cars

33 Forests for recreation and tourism

34 PART 5 Two main innovation-based strategies for the finnish forest sector - maintain the technological advantage of the traditional forest sector - invest in new products and services

35 MAINLY INCREMENTAL INNOVATIONS Energy Coniferos sawnwood Plywood The cavalier butterfly -theory INCREMENTAL & RADICAL INNOVATIONS Coniferos sawnwood Plywood Wood construction Energy Wood construction Wood chemistry Paper and paperboard Pulp and paper Paperboard Food industries Services Yet unknown opportunities

36 Consulting Value chain Enterprises (existing & new) End-users: citizens, consumers SECTOR BORDER Labour, raw material, other resources Foresight Research Education Development Actors Innovation supporting actions and programmes Value chain Customers Corporations Governance SECTOR BORDER

37 Thank you!