Yasso07 soil carbon model and user-interface

Transcription

1 Yasso07 soil carbon model and user-interface Jari Liski 1, Mikko Tuomi 1,2 and Jussi Rasinmäki 3 1 Finnish Environment Institute 2 Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, University of Helsinki 3 Simosol Oy

2 Acknowledgements Data Mark Harmon and LIDET working group (USA and Central America) Tony Trofymow and CIDET working group (Canada) Björn Berg and Maj-Britt Johansson (Sweden) Raija Laiho, Petra Vavrova, Timo Penttilä, Marjo Palviainen (Finland) Other collaboration Heikki Järvinen, Tea Thum, Petri Räisänen (FMI) Tommi Bergman (CSC) Sanna Sevanto, Timo Vesala (UH, Department of Physics) Aleksi Lehtonen, Mikko Peltoniemi, Raisa Mäkipää, Hannu Fritze (Metla) Kristiina Regina, Taru Palosuo (Agrifood Research Finland) Kristiina Karhu, Stefan Fronzek (SYKE) Christian Reick, Thomas Raddatz (Max Planck Institute) Funding Academy of Finland Nessling Foundation Minstry of Agriculture and Forestry European Commission Swedish Environment Protection Agency National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, University of California, USA

3

4 Outline 1. Applications of Yasso07 2. Soil organic carbon model Yasso07 3. User-interface of Yasso07 4. Results from a study on Swedish forest soils

5 Examples of Yasso07 applications Global scale: Earth System Modelling Regional scale: National greenhouse gas inventories Site scale: Land-use effects on soil organic carbon

6 Example of Yasso07 results: Change in litter decomposition rate (%) in response to climate change (A2) until 2100 Liski and Tuomi et al. Unpublished.

7 Example of Yasso07 results: Global CO 2 concentration using the original model (red) and the Yasso07 model (blue) in the MPI Earth System Model between years Thum et al EGU Conference.

8 Example of Yasso07 results: Soil carbon stock of Swedish forests 1922 to 2000 (Tg) Sweden Mean l. 95% u. 95 % Liski et al. Unpublished.

9 Example of Yasso07 results: Soil carbon stock at a forest site over a rotation period Soil carbon stock (tn ha -1 ) Annual change in the soil carbon stock (tn ha -1 year -1 ) Time (year) Time (year) A demonstration simulated using Yasso07 user-interface.

10 Example of Yasso07 results: Carbon of harvest residues: above ground residues left at the site (blue) or removed from the site (red) 7 Carbon left of harvest residues (kg m-2) Time since harvest (year) A demonstration simulated using Yasso07 user-interface.

11 Greenhouse gas emissions from the production and utilization of fuel chips collected from the final harvest of a forest Palosuo et al EFI Proceedings 39.

12 Outline 1. Applications of Yasso07 2. Soil organic carbon model Yasso07 3. User-interface of Yasso07 4. Results from a study on Swedish forest soils

13 Yasso07 soil carbon model 1. Background 2. Objective 3. Developing the model Data Assumptions Structure Parameter values Fit to data, validity of the assumptions 4. Features 5. Applications

14 Reasons for developing Yasso07 Other soil carbon models unsuitable for intended applications Description of soil carbon cycle insufficient or too detailed Area of applicability unclear Reliability estimates of results needed

15 Requirements set for Yasso07 Global applicability Feasible input data requirements Reliability estimates of results

16 Data used to develop Yasso07 Foliage and fine root litter decomposition Woody litter decomposition Soil carbon accumulation Soil carbon stock

17

18 Fine litter decomposition data

19 Mass loss of Scots pine needles at a Swedish site

20 Mass loss of Scots pine needles at a Swedish site

21 Soil carbon data

22 Chemical composition of litter Sugars 22 % (7-52) Jari Liski ME103: Orgaanisen Celluloses 46 % (27-73) Lignin 22 % (1-38) + Waxes etc. 9 % (2-19)

23 Decomposition process of litter Bacteria CO 2 Jari Liski ME103: Orgaanisen Fungi CO 2 Humus

24 Assumptions of Yasso07 1. Litter consists of 4 compound groups (AWEN), each decomposes at its own rate independent of origin 2. Decomposition rates are controlled by temperature and moisture (precipitation) 3. Decomposition of a compound group results in carbon fluxes 1) out of the system, 2) to another AWEN compound group or 3) to humus 4. Decomposition of woody litter is slower and sizedependent

25 Flow chart of Yasso07 Assumptions of Yasso07 1. Litter consists of 4 compound groups (AWEN), each decomposes at its own rate independent of origin 2. Decomposition rates are controlled by temperature and moisture (precipitation) 3. Decomposition of a compound group results in carbon fluxes 1) out of the system, 2) to another AWEN compound group or 3) to humus 4. Decomposition of woody litter is slower and sizedependent

26 Parameter values of Yasso07 24 parameters Decomposition rates (5) Transfer fractions (13) Climate effects (3) Size effects (3) Parameter values determined by fitting the model to all the data simultaneously and using Markov chain Monte Carlo method

27

28 Decomposition of sugar maple leaves across North and Central America: Differences between Yasso07 estimates and measurements Histogram of the residuals The residuals vs. time since the start of decomposition The residuals vs. mean annual temperature The residuals vs. annual precipitation

29 Decomposition of various litter types across North and Central America: Differences between Yasso07 estimates and measurements (67 % c.l.)

30 Assumptions of Yasso07 repeated 1. Litter consists of 4 compound groups (AWEN), each decomposes at its own rate independent of origin 2. Decomposition rates are controlled by temperature and moisture (precipitation) 3. Decomposition of a compound group results in carbon fluxes 1) out of the system, 2) to another AWEN compound group or 3) to humus 4. Decomposition of woody litter is slower and sizedependent

31 Features of Yasso07 Input information Carbon input to soil: quantity, chemical quality (AWEN), diameter of woody litter Climate: temperature and precipitation (annual or monthly) Output Variables: soil carbon stock, change in soil carbon stock, carbon flux out of soil Estimates: maximum likelihood and probability density

32 Applicability of Yasso07 Determined by the population represented by the calibration measurements Climate conditions: global Litter types: a wide variety Ecosystem types: a wide variety Soil types: a wide variety for the first 10 years of decomposition, small variety for the later phases Aerobic soil layers

33 Applications of Yasso07 National green house gas inventories Earth System Modelling Climate change effects on soil carbon Land management effects on soil carbon

34 Outline 1. Applications of Yasso07 2. Soil organic carbon model Yasso07 3. User-interface of Yasso07 4. Results from a study on Swedish forest soils

35 Yasso07 user-interface 1. Availability 2. Structure 3. Input data 4. Simulations 5. Output

36 [Yasso web page] Windows and Linux versions Manual Publications and manuscripts Source code (link to Google code)

37

38

39

40

41 Outline 1. Applications of Yasso07 2. Soil organic carbon model Yasso07 3. User-interface of Yasso07 4. Results from a study on Swedish forest soils

42 Example of Yasso07 results: Soil carbon stock of Swedish forests 1922 to 2000 (Tg) Sweden Mean l. 95% u. 95 % Liski et al. Unpublished.

43 Uncertainty sources and estimates 1. Parameter values of Yasso07 model Probability distributions of parameter vectors, obtained from calibration of Yasso07 using the Markov chain Monte Carlo method 2. Litter production SD = CV in Finnish data a * Litter production 3. Chemical composition of litter SD of AWEN fractions in Yasso07 data bases Yasso07 user-interface took samples from these probability distributions and used them in the calculations Uncertainty related to the structure of Yasso07 model? a Peltoniemi et al Forest Ecology and Management 232: 75-85, Monni et al Climatic Change 81:

44 Uncertainty in R1 pine forests: Soil carbon stock (kg m -2 ) 10 9 Y07 parameter error 10 9 Y07 parameter error + climate variability Mean l. 95% u. 95 % Mean l. 95% u. 95 % Y07 parameter error + litter input error Y07 parameter error + litter input error + climate variability Mean l. 95% u. 95 % Mean l. 95% u. 95 % Liski et al. Unpublished.

45 Uncertainty in R1 pine forests: Annual change in soil carbon stock (kg m -2 year -1 ) Y07 parameter error Y07 parameter error + climate variability Mean l. 95% u. 95 % Mean l. 95% u. 95 % Y07 parameter error + litter input error Y07 parameter error + litter input error + climate variability Mean l. 95% u. 95 % Mean l. 95% u. 95 % Liski et al. Unpublished.

46