How to Include Terrestrial Carbon in the Overall Climate Change Solution

Transcription

1 The Terrestrial Carbon Group How to Include Terrestrial Carbon in the Overall Climate Change Solution Presentation at Forests Day 2 Ralph Ashton, 6 December 2008, Poznan terrestrialcarbon.org

2 Climate Change: The Basics Climate change is caused by the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere Atmosphere Up to 25% of the climate change solution (emissions & sequestration) Greenhouse gases have only two other places to go: 1. The oceans 2. The terrestrial system (inc land and vegetation) Oceans Terrestrial System * In the developing world

3 The Terrestrial Carbon Group Science, Economics, Public Policy Ralph Ashton Jacques Marcovitch Chatib Basri Warwick McKibbin Rizaldi Boer Daniel Nepstad Peter Cosier Carlos Nobre Ruth DeFries Hugh Possingham Mohamed El Ashry Bernhard Schlamadinger Tim Flannery Hadi Soesastro Thomas Lovejoy Joseph Stiglitz Yadvinder Malhi Bernardo Strassburg With input from hundreds of people over the last year RIP 2008

4 Limitations of the International Response to Climate Change

5 1. Terrestrial Carbon is More than Forests Terrestrial Carbon Mitigation Potential Global (17.9 GtCO 2 e pa) Avoided Deforestation Forest Sequestration Agriculture Developing Countries (12.5 GtCO 2 e pa) Charts show mitigation potential at <US$100/tonne CO2 in 2030 based on forest carbon; agricultural sequestration; and avoidance of N 2 O and CH 4 emissions, mainly from livestock (< 0.1 Gt). Developing countries = Non OECD / Non EIT. Source: Smith et al., 2007 (Figure 8.5: Total technical mitigation potentials (all practices, all GHGs: MtCO2 eq/yr) for each region by 2030, showing mean estimates); Nabuurs et al, 2007 (Table 9.3: Potential of mitigation measures of global forestry activities. Global model results indicate annual amount sequestered or emissions avoided, above business as usual, in 2030 for carbon prices 100 US$/tCO2 and less); both from Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of working group III to the 4 th assessment report of the IPCCC

6 2. It s Messy, but Doesn t Have to Be Compliance markets Voluntary markets JI Deforestation Avoided deforestation LULUCF Peat AFOLU Afforestation and reforestation Election vs mandatory Sustainable forest management CDM Forest degradation Annex 1 and non Annex 1

7 3. Reducing Rates vs Avoiding Emissions % Year 0 Volume Carbon 120 Same Total Carbon Emissions Business as Usual BAU Total Emissions Paying for a Delay Reduced Rate Year Reduced Rate Total Emissions

8 4. Missing the Dynamic Links Population Demand for food, fibre, fuel, carbon, and land Prices for those commodities Land use decisions Vegetated land in developing nations will be increasingly threatened with conversion to: Agricultural and plantation use Human settlements and infrastructure

9 Framing a Solution

10 Guiding Principles for Effective Action 1. Maximise long term terrestrial carbon volumes 2. Maintain existing terrestrial carbon and create new terrestrial carbon 3. Include all types of terrestrial carbon (using a phased approach) 4. Use a mix of complementary approaches (market and non market, public and private) 5. Take action on terrestrial carbon in addition to reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from all other sources across the world 6. Recognise sovereignty over land management 7. Build appropriate national and international institutions 8. Avoid perverse outcomes 9. Adapt to best available information

11 Solution: A Simple Concept Create a new economic development option for nations and communities: carbon capture and storage in the terrestrial system The technology for this CCS exists today Governments and land owners can then choose between economic development based on: Existing options (oil palm, timber extraction, copra, infrastructure, etc); and Selling the service of carbon capture and storage in the terrestrial system

12 Solution: Defining the New Commodity Map a nation s terrestrial carbon into two categories: Not at Risk = Protected Effectively protected by law Protected by biophysical conditions Protected by economic constraints over next 50 years (dynamic) At Risk = Tradable Everything else See detail in Terrestrial Carbon Group s paper

13 Example: Indonesia (forests only) Forest area 86.2 million ha Carbon density 140 tonnes per ha Following the TCG proposal (based on Government land classifications): Protected Terrestrial Carbon 32.6 million ha 16,760 Mt CO 2 Tradable Terrestrial Carbon 53.6 million ha 27,500 Mt CO 2 Business as usual emissions from deforestation and forest degradation would be about 550 Mt CO2 per year (over 50 years) Assuming carbon price of US$20 / tco2, and that Indonesia halves forest emissions, Indonesia could earn: US$5.5 billion per year for the next 50 years for avoided emissions Plus the value of newly created terrestrial carbon Indonesia could decide not to sell all Tradable Terrestrial Carbon to: Pursue other social and / or economic development options Avoid price dampening caused by over supply

14 Proposed Market Solution: Advantages Voluntary to join the system Applies to developing nations with different terrestrial carbon circumstances Nations determine national level implementation Does not restrict economic use of land, but opens up a new economic development option carbon credits No need to sell underlying asset (land, forest, carbon) but sell service of sequestering carbon Sets a credible business as usual terrestrial carbon emissions scenario for a nation Based on a simple, robust methodology using easily compiled data

15 Proposed Market Solution: Advantages Addresses key concerns of additionality, leakage, permanence, and flooding Rests on national terrestrial carbon accounting and monitoring, but allows: National, sub national, and project level activities Private sector and civil society participation Builds on existing monitoring infrastructure Builds on existing methodologies and standards Provides certainty to buyers and sellers of credits Limits perverse outcomes

16 Proposed Market Solution: National Implementation Requirements Establish the infrastructure and expertise to collect (through remote sensing using satellites and through on the ground surveying) and analyse terrestrial carbon data Agree methods to determine how much carbon is stored in a particular type of landscape and what happens to that carbon under different land uses Create and audit national terrestrial carbon inventories Effectively engage those who depend on forests and those who depend on deforestation and forest degradation Undertake a transparent process of clarifying rights to ownership and use of land, vegetation and carbon credits Establish credible and transparent systems and institutions to: measure terrestrial carbon; certify, verify and audit project and national level outcomes; monitor changes over space and time; produce national terrestrial carbon accounts; facilitate and oversee the stable, long term disbursement of funds; and coordinate with international institutions Draft and enact regulations to establish terrestrial carbon registers, exchanges, dispute resolution and enforcement mechanisms, and regulatory oversight

17 What Next?

18 Critical Path to Success A B C National Scale Terrestrial Agree Demonstrations Copenhagen Carbon in Rules for Early Action & Early Action Agreement Early Action Implementation Poznan 2009 Copenhagen 3 Years Post 2012

19 A. Building Consensus on Early Action 2008 Analysis of all proposed mechanisms Prince s Rainforests Project Roundtable (princesrainforestsproject.org/news and articles/project activity) The Little REDD Book (littlereddbook.org) Consensus on core requirements for early action Poznan UN can agree early action rules without pre empting a final decision 2009 Learn and adapt Copenhagen UN agree final early action rules ( ) and post 2012 rules

20 B. Bringing All the Pieces Together to Break Chicken and Egg Deadlocks Technical capacity and lesson sharing Funding Coordination Standards setting Pooled risk management Inter Governmental Institutions Academics National terrestrial carbon inventory Clarify ownership rights Set rules for projects Structural adjustment Legislative framework Host Government National Scale Demonstration Technology transfer Start up funding and risk guarantees Training and staff swaps Demand for credits Developed World Governments Private Sector Technical capacity Scientific research Methodologies Civil Society Projects to generate credits Community engagement Optimising co benefits Land Owners and Local Communities Local development decision making Projects to generate credits Carbon measurement Monitoring systems Projects to generate credits Finance Risk management Commodity tracking

21 C. Economic Information to Support Decisions based on National Interest 1. Collaborative Modeling Initiative on REDD Economics: Consistent and comparable quantitative information to assist negotiations Conservation International, University of East Anglia, Woods Hole Research Center, Environmental Defense Fund, the Terrestrial Carbon Group, and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) New! Open Source Impacts of REDD Incentives Spreadsheet (OSIRIS): a free, transparent, and accessible open source spreadsheet, using standardized data and assumptions Initial country by country results available now More results ready for the IARU International Scientific Congress on Climate Change (C hagen, March 2009) 2. Working with The Nature Conservancy (TNC) on its modeling

22 Bolstering National Capabilities Co opted Experts and Systems Experts and Systems from Host Government, Academia and Civil Society Transition over Time

23 The Terrestrial Carbon Group s paper is now available in 5 languages at terrestrialcarbon.org Bahasa Indonesia English Español Français Português do Brasil Terima kasih! Thank you! Gracias! Merci! We re Hiring Obrigado!