SARAH BAARTMAN DISTRICT MUNICIPALITY DISASTER RISK MANANAGEMENT PLAN

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1 SARAH BAARTMAN DISTRICT MUNICIPALITY DISASTER RISK MANANAGEMENT PLAN

2 Contents Part 1 Introduction Foreword Authority for Planning Amendments Setting the scene Definitions The Municipal disaster management framework setting out Responsibilities and co-ordination Who will implement the plan and the custodian of the plan? Part 2 Description of Sarah Baartman District Part 3 Risk Management Process Section 1: Section 2: Section 3: Section 4: Section 5: Section 6: Section 7: Section 8: Introduction Risk Assessment Assessing the Local Risk Summarised Risk Metrics Top Priority Risk Assessment Summaries Impact of relevant global risk conditions Recommended way forward Generic Municipal Information Part 5 Part 6 Part 7 External Liaison and Stakeholders Participation Operational Planning Disaster Management SOPs (standard operating Protocols)

3 PART ONE Foreword Whilst hazards are inevitable, and the elimination of all risks impossible, there are many technical measures, traditional practices and public experiences that can reduce the extent or severity of economic, environmental and social disasters. South Africa is susceptible to a range of hazards, both natural and technological, which have the capacity to impact significantly on national and municipal development strategies and initiatives. The sustainability of such initiatives will therefore depend very much on how successfully risks associated with these hazards can be managed. This Disaster Management Plan has been developed by Sarah Baartman District Municipality Disaster Management Centre, with significant input from the Sarah Baartman District Municipality Disaster Management Advisory Forum. The plan provides a framework through which a holistic and comprehensive risk management can be undertaken within the Sarah Baartman District. The focus, as required by the Disaster Management Act, 2002, and within the legislated disaster management framework, is on minimizing the effects of hazards on local communities by ensuring a co-ordinated effort in risk management within the Sarah Baartman District utilizing partnerships of Provincial Government, District and Local Municipalities, and non- governmental bodies with a responsibility or capacity in disaster risk management and emergency response. The Plan outlines the national disaster management framework. The plan further identifies the risk environment for Sarah Baartman District and outlines the key institutional and programming components relative to effective risk management and emergency response. The Plan is not designed to usurp the incident management responsibilities of the various emergency services or other organizations within the community that respond to events which fall within their normal daily activities. Instead the plan is designed to enhance the capacity of the emergency services to more effectively plan for and respond to emergency situations. This is achieved through the combined processes of hazard and risk analysis, which provides more realistic base information upon which to frame operational plans and procedures. The Plan is a dynamic document which may be extended in the future to incorporate any additional risk treatment options as they are identified following formal hazard and risk analysis. The Plan will also be amended in line with changes in the legislation and current best practice, and to reflect lessons learnt from the impact of hazards and other disaster situations that may rise. Disaster Risk Management Plan Objective To strengthen the capacity of the Sarah Baartman disaster risk management system to reduce unacceptable risks and improve response and recovery activities.

4 Strategic Focus Move disaster risk management programming efforts from a response and relief emphasis to comprehensive risk management culture. Authority for Planning and Authorisation of the Plan The Sarah Baartman District Municipality Disaster Management Plan has been prepared in accordance with the provisions of the Disaster Management Act, 2002, Section 52 & 53, the Sarah Baartman District Municipality Integrated Plan, within the framework for disaster management in the municipality, and is aimed at ensuring an integrated and uniform approach to comprehensive disaster management in the Municipality This Plan has been documented by the Disaster Management Center, Sarah Baartman District Municipality, with the support of the Sarah Baartman District Municipality Disaster Management Advisory Forum. Disaster Management Centre Sarah Baartman District Municipality Date: This Plan will be endorsed by the Executive Committee and recommended to Council for approval. Municipal Manager Date: This Plan is approved. Mayor Sarah Baartman District Municipality Date:

5 Amendment Sheet Amendment No: Section(s) Amended Date of Amendment Entered By Date

6 Setting the Scene South Africa is prone to a variety of natural and human-induced hazards, which occasionally lead to loss of property and lives. In the past decade, these hazard occurrences have become more frequent and severe. The National Government recognised a need to establish an institutional framework that allows for risk prevention and rapid action during an occurrence and has taken certain steps towards this end, such as: White Paper on Disaster Management: The White Paper introduced a new paradigm in the management of disasters, by placing an emphasis on risk reduction and preparedness. Disaster Management Act: The White Paper led to the promulgation of the Disaster Management Act, Act 57 of 2002, which is the regulatory framework for disaster management in South Africa. The Department of Provincial and Local Government (DPLG), through the National Disaster Management Centre (NDMC), administers the Act. National Disaster Management Framework: The NDMC is currently in the process of preparing a National Disaster Management Framework, which will aim to guide the development and implementation of disaster management in the country. National Disaster Management Centre Guidelines: The NDMC has developed guidelines for the establishment of disaster management centres (DMC s). National Disaster Management Planning Guidelines: The NDMC has requested proposals to prepare Guidelines for Preparing Disaster Management Plans that will assist Municipalities in the drafting of their disaster management plans. The Disaster Management Act The Disaster Management Act, Act 57 of 2002, requires that, inter alia, the three spheres of government prepare Disaster Management Plans (Sections 39 and 53 of the Act).

7 Section 39 of the Disaster Management Act addresses the disaster management planning requirements for Provinces, namely: (1) Each province must- (a) prepare a disaster management plan for the province as a whole: (b) co-ordinate and align the implementation of its plan with those of other organs of state and institutional role-players; and (c) regularly review and update its plan. (2) A disaster management plan for a province must- (a) form an integral part of development planning in the province; (b) anticipate the types of disaster that are likely to occur in the province and their possible effects; (c) guide the development of measures that reduce the vulnerability of disaster-prone areas, communities and households; (d) seek to develop a system of incentives that will promote disaster management in the province; (e) identify the areas or communities at risk; (f) take into account indigenous knowledge relating to disaster management: (g) promote disaster management research; h) identify and address weaknesses in capacity to deal with possible disasters: (i) provide for appropriate prevention and mitigation strategies; (j) facilitate maximum emergency preparedness; and (k) contain contingency plans and emergency procedures in the event of a disaster, providing for- (i) the allocation of responsibilities to the various role-players and (ii) prompt disaster response and relief; (iii) the procurement of essential goods and services: (iv) the establishment of strategic communication links; (v) the dissemination of information; and (vi) other matters that may be prescribed. (3) Municipal organs of state in the province, to the extent required by the province, may be requested to co-operate with the province in preparing a disaster management plan for the province. (4) A province must submit a copy of its disaster management plan and of any amendment to the plan to the National Centre and each municipal disaster management centre in the province.

8 Section 53 of the Disaster Management Act addresses the disaster management planning requirements for Municipal Entities, namely: (1) Each municipality must, within the applicable municipal disaster management framework- (a) prepare a disaster management plan for its area according to the circumstances prevailing in the area; (b) co-ordinate and align the implementation of its plan with those of other organs of state and institutional role-players; (c) regularly review and update its plan; and (d) through appropriate mechanisms, processes and procedures established in terms of Chapter 4 of the Local Government: Municipal Systems Act, 2000 (Act No. 32 of 2000), consult the local community on the preparation or amendment of its plan. (2) A disaster management plan for a municipal area must- (a) form an integral part of the municipality s integrated development plan; (b) anticipate the types of disaster that are likely to occur in the municipal area and their possible effects; (c) place emphasis on measures that reduce the vulnerability of disaster-prone areas, communities and households; (d) seek to develop a system of incentives that will promote disaster management in the municipality; (e) identify the areas, communities or households at risk; (f) take into account indigenous knowledge relating to disaster management; (g) promote disaster management research; (h) identify and address weaknesses in capacity to deal with possible disasters; (i) provide for appropriate prevention and mitigation strategies: (j) facilitate maximum emergency preparedness; and (k) contain contingency plans and emergency procedures in the event of a disaster, providing for- (i) the allocation of responsibilities to the various role-players and co-ordination in the carrying out of those responsibilities; (ii) prompt disaster response and relief; (iii) the procurement of essential goods and services; (iv) the establishment of strategic communication links; (v) the dissemination of information; and (vi) other matters that may be prescribed. (3) A district municipality and the local municipalities within the area of the district municipality must prepare their disaster management plans after consulting each other. (4) A municipality must submit a copy of its disaster management plan, and of any amendment to the plan, to the National Centre, the disaster management centre of the relevant province, and, if it is a district municipality or a local municipality, to every municipal disaster management centre within the area of the district municipality concerned.

9 The current understanding of the Act as it relates to Disaster Management Plans is that Municipalities must plan for the following: Disaster Risk Reduction (Disaster Mitigation) Planning: Disaster Risk Reduction Plans should reduce the risks to which vulnerable communities are exposed to acceptable levels (described in Sections 39 (2) and 53 (2) (a); (b); (c); (e); (f); (h) and (i) of the Act). In preparing their Risk Reduction Plans, Municipalities should apply their minds and come up with cost-effective and innovative risk reduction solutions. The majority of these plans will be linked to the Integrated Development Plan (IDP) as projects and programmes. Disaster Preparedness (Response & Relief) Planning: Disaster Preparedness Plans (described in Sections 39 (2) and 53 (2) (b); (e); (f); (h) (j) and (k) of the Act), should address response and relief actions to be implemented should a disaster hit a community that is not particularly vulnerable to risks and/or find it acceptable to live with such risks. Disaster Impact Assessment and Recovery Planning (Recovery, Rehabilitation & Reconstruction) Planning: Disaster Impact Assessment and Recovery Planning should focus on assessing the impact of a disaster; identifying appropriate reconstruction and rehabilitation measures; and monitoring the effectiveness of the reconstruction and rehabilitation measures. The State President, President Thabo Mbeki, has recently enacted the Disaster Management Act, Act 57 of The enactment of the Disaster Management Act states the following: National and Provincial Government Departments: All National and Provincial Government Departments MUST comply with the Act as from April District and Local Municipalities: All District and Local Municipalities MUST comply with the Act as from June Implementation Time Frame: All National and Provincial Government Departments, as well as, District and Local Municipalities have been given a two-year period for implementing all the requirements of the Act. After this time period, all National and Provincial Government Departments, as well as, District and Local Municipalities must fully comply with the Act.

10 Definitions /Terminology The following terminology 1 is used in this document: Development Planning: Development planning is an integrated, multisectoral process through which governmental institutions streamline social, economic and spatial growth. Disaster: A serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society causing widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses that exceed the ability of the affected community or society to cope, using its own resources. Disaster Risk: The possibility, or chance, of harmful consequences, or expected loss (of lives, people injured, property, livelihoods, economic activity disrupted or environment damaged) resulting from interactions between natural or human induced hazards and vulnerable conditions. Within this context, the following terms are often used in this document: Disaster Risk Reduction: The adage Prevention is better than cure has never been more applicable than in the case of disaster management. Disaster risk reduction is the science of reducing the risks to which vulnerable communities are being exposed. The Disaster Management Act consequently requires that Municipalities and Provinces should seek to mitigate or reduce the risk of disasters occurring in vulnerable communities as a first prize. Disaster Risk Reduction Goals are general guidelines that explain what you want to achieve. They are usually broad policy-type statements, long term, and represent global visions, such as: The economic vitality of the community will not be threatened by future flood events. The continuity of local government operations will not be significantly disrupted by disasters. Disaster Risk Reduction Objectives define strategies or implementation steps to attain the identified goals. Unlike goals, objectives are specific and measurable, such as: Protect structures in the historic downtown area from flood damage. Educate citizens about wildfire defensible space actions. Disaster Risk Reduction Measures are specific actions that help you achieve your risk reduction goals and objectives. For example: Elevate three historic structures located in the downtown district. Retrofit the police department to withstand high wind damage. Disaster Residual Risk Management: When the risks have been reduced to the extent that communities are not very vulnerable to risks and/or find it acceptable to live with these risks, the residual risk management phase kicks in. Residual risk management can be defined as the discipline of being prepared to manage any of the residual risks with the utmost speed and efficiency.

11 Hazards: A potentially damaging physical event, phenomenon or human activity, which may cause the loss of life or injury, property damage, social and economic disruption or environmental degradation. Impact: The terms Primary Impact and Secondary Impact are used to describe the different causes and scales of potential impacts from a hazard event: Primary Impacts are also called direct impacts. Secondary Impacts are often referred to as indirect or induced impacts. This does not imply that Secondary Impacts are of secondary importance ~ in many cases the effects on biodiversity and the environment from secondary impacts are much more significant than those of primary impacts. Manageability: The degree to which a community can intervene and manage the negative consequences of a hazard event. Preparedness: Readiness for the possibility of harmful consequences, or expected loss. See also Residual Risk Management. Preventative Measures: See Risk Reduction Measures. Resilience: The capacity of a system, community or society to resist or to change in order that it may obtain an acceptable level in functioning and structure. Response: See Residual Risk Management under Disaster Risk. Vulnerability: Vulnerability refers to a set of conditions resulting from physical, social, economical and environmental factors, which increase the susceptibility of a community to the impact of a hazard. Community safety as used in this document, refers to community safety in the broadest sense and is not confined to crime prevention and law enforcement issues. Consequence the likely negative effects on persons, society, the environment or the economy, that may eventuate as a result of a hazard impact. Disaster management - Disaster Management means a continuous and integrated multisectoral, multi-disciplinary process of planning and implementation of measures aimed at - - preventing or reducing the risk of disasters - mitigating the severity or consequences of disaster - emergency preparedness - rapid and effective response to disasters - post disaster recovery and rehabilitation Disaster disaster is a progressive or sudden, widespread or localised, natural or human caused occurrence, which causes or threatens to cause - death, injury or disease - damage to property, infrastructure or the environment; or - disruption of the life of a community; and is of a magnitude that exceeds those affected by the disaster to cope with its effects using only their own resources. Emergency preparedness - a state of readiness prior to the occurrence of a disaster or impending disaster, to enable organs of state and other institutions involved in disaster management, the private sector, communities and individuals to mobilise, organise and provide relief measures to deal with an impending or current disaster, or the effects of a disaster.

12 Hazard - something that has the potential to cause significant negative impact on community elements (such as social, environmental and economic) Integrated development plan in relation to a municipality, - a plan envisage in section 25 of the Local Government Municipal Systems Act.2000 (Act No 32 of 2000) Level of risk expression of the severity of a risk derived from consideration of likelihood the event will occur and the potential consequence that may arise. Likelihood - an expression of how likely it is that specific hazard will occur within a given time frame. It is used as a qualitative description of probably of frequency Municipal manager - a person appointed as such in terms of section 82 of the Local Government: Municipal Structures Act, 1998 (Act No. 117 of 1998) Risk - used to describe the likelihood of harmful consequences, arising from the interaction hazard, vulnerable elements (i.e. the community) and environment Risk treatment options (strategies) measures contained within mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery programs that aim to eliminate of drastically reduce the level of risk Vulnerability - the degree to which an individual, a household, a community or an area may be adversely affected by a disaster. Vulnerability refers to the susceptibility and resilience of the community environment to hazards. 1.2 THE SARAH BAARTMAN MUNICIPAL DISASTER MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK (SBDMF) The Sarah Baartman District Municipality in terms of Section 42 of the Disaster Management Act 2002 has established and implemented a framework for disaster management aimed at ensuring an integrated and common approach to disaster management in Council s area. The disaster management framework of the Sarah Baartman Municipality, which has been prepared in consultation with the nine local municipalities in Council s area, is consistent with: the provisions of the Disaster Management Act, 2002 the national disaster management framework the disaster management framework of the Province of the Eastern Cape The framework provides a clear, logical, transparent and inclusive policy on disaster management for Council s area as a whole, which ensures a focus commensurate with the types, severity and magnitude of disasters that occur or may occur in Council s area. Council s framework establishes vulnerability reduction, mitigation and prevention in areas, communities and households, which are at risk to disasters, as fundamental principles of disaster management. It provides for active participation of all relevant role-players, stakeholders, the community and volunteers, and promotes the concept of co-operative governance. The establishment of joint standards of practice to ensure an integrated and co-ordinated response to disasters which occur or may occur in Council s area is a key principle.

13 The facilitation of disaster management capacity building, training and education opportunities and programmes to ensure an alert self-reliant and aware community enjoy high priority. The framework includes key performance indicators to assess the status of disaster management in Council s area. 1.1 THE DISASTER MANAGEMENT CONTINUUM Early warning Emergency/ Disaster Rescue B A Preparedness Relief Mitigation Rehabilitation Reconstruction & Prevention 1.2 A = Pre-disaster risk and vulnerability reduction phase B = Post-disaster recovery phase PHASES OF A DISASTER Disasters can be viewed as a series of phases on a time continuum. Identifying and understanding these phases helps to describe disaster-related needs and to conceptualise appropriate disaster management activities. 1. The relief and rescue phase The relief and rescue phase is the period immediately following the occurrence of a disaster (or the late discovery of a neglected/deteriorated slow-onset situation) when exceptional measures have to be taken to search and find the survivors as well as meet their basic needs for shelter, water, food and medical care. In many instances a differentiation is made between rescue and relief. This will all depend on the extend and type of disaster.

14 2. Rehabilitation Rehabilitation and reconstruction is the operations and decisions taken after a disaster with a view to restoring a stricken community to its former living conditions, while encouraging and facilitating the necessary adjustments to the changes caused by the disaster. 3. Reconstruction Reconstruction is the action taken to re-establish a community after a period of rehabilitation subsequent to a disaster. Actions would include construction of permanent housing, full restoration of all services, and complete resumption of the pre-disaster state. 4. Prevention Prevention forms the first step in the pre-disaster reduction phase. Prevention encompasses such measure as to ensure than the effects of a disaster or the disaster itself is prevented. This can include aspects such as training and community awareness programmes or research on better building methods. 5. Mitigation Mitigation is the collective term used to encompass all actions taken prior to the occurrence of a disaster (pre-disaster measures) including preparedness and long-term risk reduction measures. (Mitigation has been used by some institutions or authors in a narrower sense, excluding preparedness). 6. Preparedness Preparedness consists of activities designed to minimise loss of life and damage, organise the temporary removal of people and property from a threatened location, and facilitate timely and effective rescue, relief and rehabilitation. 7. Early warning Early warning is the process of monitoring situations in communities or areas known to be vulnerable to slow onset hazards. For example, famine early warning may be reflected in such indicators as drought, livestock sales, or changes in economic conditions. The purposes of early warning are to enable remedial measures to be initiated and to provide more timely and effective relief including through disaster preparedness actions. 8. The emergency or disaster phase The emergency or disaster phase is the period during which extraordinary measures have to be taken. Special emergency procedures and authorities may be applied to support human needs, sustain livelihoods, and protect property to avoid the onset of disaster. This phase can encompass pre-disaster, disaster alert, disaster relief and recovery periods. An emergency phase may be quite extensive, as in a slow onset disaster such as a famine. It can also be relatively short-lived, as after an earthquake.

15 THE CUSTODIAN OF THE DISASTER MANAGEMENT PLAN The Head of Disaster Management is the custodian of the Disaster Management Plan for the Sarah Baartman District Municipality and is responsible to ensure the regular review and updating of the plan. The Head of Disaster Management is also responsible to ensure that a copy of the plan as well as any amendments to the plan is submitted to: the National Disaster Management Centre (NDMC) the Disaster Management Centre of the Province of the Eastern Cape (PDMC) the Sarah Baartman District Disaster Management Centre

16 Description of the Municipality PART TWO (Information sourced from the Sarah Baartman District Municipality Integrated Development Plan) OVERVIEW OF THE MUNICIPALITY The Sarah Baartman District Municipality (SBDM), is the largest ( km 2 ) of the six (6) District Municipalities in the Eastern Cape Province. The District is situated in the western portion of the Province, bordering the Western Cape, Northern Cape and two other District Municipalities in the Eastern Cape, namely Chris Hani District Municipality and Amathole District Municipality. The District consists of nine (9) local municipalities (Category B Municipalities)and three other portions that are National Parks, namely the Addo Elephant National Park, the Tsitsikamma National Park and Camdeboo National Park. These parks are managed by the South African National Parks Board 2. The district has the largest number of Category B municipalities in the country. The District wholly borders the Nelson Mandela Metropolitan Municipality (NMMM), and consequently, land access to the NMMM is via the SBDM. The nine local municipalities in SBDM and their respective towns are: MUNICIPALITY MAJOR SETTLEMENTS / TOWNS EC101 Graaff-Reinet, Aberdeen, Nieu-Bethesda EC102 Blue Crane Route Somerset-East, Cookhouse, Pearston EC103 Ikwezi Jansenville, Klipplaat, Waterford, Wolwefontein EC104 Makana Grahamstown, Alicedale, Riebeeck-East EC105 Ndlambe Port Alfred, Kenton-on-Sea, Bushmans River Mouth, Alexandria EC106 Sundays River Valley Kirkwood, Addo, Paterson, Glenconner EC107 Baviaans Willowmore, Steytlerville, Rietbron, Vondeling EC108 Kouga Jeffreys Bay, Humansdorp, Hankey, Patensie, St Francis Bay EC109 Kou-Kamma Joubertina, Kareedouw, Louterwater 2 The National Parks in the District do not form part of the 2010 demarcation exercise. All national parks are excluded from disestablishment.

17 Table 1: Local Municipalities, Major Settlements / Towns Sarah Baartman District Offices The Sarah Baartman District Municipality offices are located within the Nelson Mandela Bay Metro area, with disaster centers located throughout the district. There are plans to relocate to Kirkwood in the Sundays River Valley municipality area. 32 Govan Mbeki Avenue Port Elizabeth 6000 Tell: Website: Baartman.co.za Sarah Baartman Disaster satellite offices are located throughout the district: Serviced Municipalities Sundays River Valley And Blue Crane Route Ndlambe And Makana Jansenville: Ikwezi, Baviaans And Camdeboo Kou Kamma And Kouga Location of the Satellite Offices, Address & Contact detail Fire Station Middle Street Kirkwood Tel: Fax: Bathurst Street Port Alfred 6170 Tel: Fax: Boom Street Jansenville 6265 Tel: Fax: Keet Street Kareedouw Tel: /0303 Fax:

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19 SITUATION ANALYSIS 2.1 DEMOGRAPHICS The SBDM relies on the South African National census 2011 (StatsSA) data information on official population figures, assisting it to make informed decision relating to population challenges faced by the district. The census determined the country's population as 51.8 million and Sarah Baartman s population to be The SBDM has undertaken to access a number of alternative sources of data to provide a comparative analysis against the census 2011 figures and also assist in evaluating the growth trends within the district, namely: Information obtained from the 2003 the Eastern Cape Socio Consultative Council survey; Information obtained from the 2004 district economic growth and development strategy as undertaken by the Urban Econ Group; Information obtained from the Global Insight Group reflecting projected population estimates as per Table: 2.1 Population Estimates from different sources Source Estimated Population STATS SA 1996 Census STATS SA 2001 Census ECSECC Urban Econ. Group Global Insight Database STATS SA 2011 census

20 2.1.1 District and Local Population Distribution: EC area per km 2 OR TAMBO 7% ALFRED NZO 7% NMMM 1% JOE GQABI (Ukhahlamba) 16% CACADU 34% CHRIS HANI 22% AMATHOLE 12% Figure 2.1: Eastern Cape Area per km 2 BUFFALO CITY 1% The Sarah Baartman District covers approximately one third of the Eastern Cape s land area, however it only houses 6.8% of the provinces population, with the lowest average distribution of eight people per square kilometre in the Eastern Cape (table 2.2). Only 22% of houses are informal, and 2/3 of households have potable water and a flush toilet or pit latrine on site. Conditions are worse in the small towns of the interior where poverty can be severe, compounded by isolation from the mainstream economy 3. It must however be noted that poverty is defined not only by levels of unemployment, but also characterized by a lack of access to, for instance, education, health care, and basic services including water and sanitation. Table 2.2: Eastern Cape District Municipality Population Area Coverage & Densities MUNICIPALITY POPULATION AREA (Km 2 ) DENSITY SARAH BAARTMAN ,7 7.7 AMATHOLE , BUFFALO CITY CHRIS HANI , JOE GQABI (Ukhahlamba) , OR TAMBO , ALFRED NZO , NMMM , TOTAL EC , Source: POPULATION CENSUS FIGURES: 2001 & 2011 Sarah Baartman has the lowest population density of the Eastern Cape Districts and Metros, due to the area covered by the district. This result is high costs per capita of providing services in the district. 3

21 The Sarah Baartman area consists of a predominantly rural or agricultural base but differs from the mainstream rural definition that refers primarily to the former homelands. The Sarah Baartman scenario requires an alternative conceptualization of population placement that can be related to economic opportunity. Thus, it can be stated that the Sarah Baartman population distribution varies spatially based predominantly on coastal and inland placements, with the inland settlements of Graaff-Reinet and Grahamstown being the exception. Population concentrations are in Makana, Kouga and Ndlambe, with more than 50% of residents in the District residing in these Municipalities. The remaining Municipalities all have less than inhabitants per municipality. One explanation for this distribution is the variation in land types, agricultural practices and associated income generating opportunities that are characteristic of Sarah Baartman s inland and coastal areas Population Size per Local Municipality: In the efforts to understand the population growth dynamics of the area, the municipality has used different statistic sources to get estimates of information Table 2.3: Demographic Total Population Local Municipalities ( boundaries) Census 2001 GI 2002 GI 2003 GI 2004 GI 2005 GI 2006 GI 2007 GI 2008 GI 2009 GI 2010 Census 2011 Camdeboo 44,368 45,075 45,235 45,408 45,606 45,823 46,053 46,310 46,592 46, Blue Crane Route 35,015 35,784 36,045 36,321 36,624 36,956 37,324 37,726 38,156 38, Ikwezi 10,367 10,534 10,571 10,614 10,665 10,723 10,790 10,865 10,948 11, Makana 74,541 77,030 76,853 76,758 76,773 76,912 77,170 77,555 78,062 78, Ndlambe 55,480 58,435 60,365 62,182 63,925 65,618 67,282 68,917 70,526 72, Sundays River ,039 42,638 42,318 42,094 41,967 41,938 41,999 42,137 42, Baviaans ,515 15,666 15,814 15,964 16,113 16,265 16,419 16,576 16, Kouga ,004 76,967 78,820 80,588 82,286 83,935 85,530 87,088 88, Kou-Kamma 34,294 36,218 37,555 38,814 40,013 41,153 42,247 43,295 44,299 45, (IHS Global Insight, Stats SA Census 2001 & 2011

22 Figure 2.1: Demographic Total Population Cacadu total population Kou-Kamma Kouga Baviaans Sundays River Valley Ndlambe Makana Ikwezi Blue Crane Route Camdeboo Table 2. 4: Demographic Population by population group Census 2011 Local Municipalities ( boundaries) African White Coloured Asian Other Total Camdeboo 12,638 4,877 33, ,993 Blue Crane Route 21,247 2,453 11, ,002 Ikwezi 3, , ,537 Makana 62,702 6,974 9, ,390 Ndlambe 47,556 8,704 4, ,176 Sundays River Valley 39,116 3,209 11, ,504 Baviaans 2,128 1,244 14, ,761 Kouga 38,274 17,376 41, ,558 Kou-Kamma 12,434 3,333 24, ,663 Stats SA 2011 census

23 Figure 2.2: Demographic Population by population group Other Asian Coloured White African Table 2.5: Population Statistics per Local Municipality 2001, 2005 and 2010 Local Municipality Camdeboo Blue Crane Ikwezi Makana Ndlambe Sundays River Valley Baviaans Kouga Major Settlements Graaff-Reinet, Aberdeen, Nieu- Bethesda Somerset-East, Cookhouse, Pearston Jansenville, Klipplaat, Waterford, Wolwefontein Grahamstown, Alicedale, Riebeeck- East Port Alfred, Kenton-on- Sea, Bushmans River, Alexandria Kirkwood, Addo, Paterson, Glenconner Willowmore, Steytlerville, Rietbron, Vondeling Jeffreys Bay, Humansdorp, Hankey, Patensie, St Francis Joubertina, Kareedouw, Louterwater Census (2001) Comparable Statistics LM Global Insight Survey (2011) (2005) Census (2011) 49,039 50,993 39,344 36,002 11,332 10,537 79,258 80,390 73,523 61,176 42,574 54,504 19,879 17,761 90,333 98,558 Kou-Kamma ,479 40,663 TOTAL , ,584 The significant difference in Makana could be attributed to the amount of informal settlement taking place in the town as a result of general urbanisation and farm evictions. These numbers are a particular concern as they have a direct impact on Grant Funding allocations. The population variation in Makana is acknowledged.

24 2.5 SAFETY & SECURITY Crime Statistics and Trend Analysis The following graph and map represent the overall crime reports per policing district. The challenge with linking safety information with municipal information is the deference in municipal boundaries and Police Precinct. The analysis will identify the crime trend of the district municipal area between the period of April 2012 to March 2013 and also the change in crime stats between the 2012 and 2013 year. Crime Map The Heatmap displays all the precincts in South Africa to you. Each precinct is colour coded. The number of total crimes for the category or categories you have chosen are sorted numerically and then divided into 5 blocks, called quintiles. The first quintile contains the precincts in the bottom 20%, so they have the least crimes. They are shown in green. The fifth quintile contains the precincts that have are in the top 20% in terms of number of crimes, in other words they have the most crimes. They are shown in red. Therefore the colour of the precinct, from green to orange to red, indicates how many crimes it has in comparison to the others. LEGEND20% Percentile Station Grouping: 0-20% 20%-40% 40%-60% 60%-80% 80%-100%

25 Table 2.25: Crime Statistics per Precinct and LM Source: Crime stats sa, 2013 The SAPS statistics show low levels of crimes in the district compared to the overall provincial crime statistics. The urban police districts of Grahamstown, Graaff-Reinet and Humansdorp are areas of concern for the district,. Grahamstown in the Makana municipality is part of the top percentile of police stations grouping related to reported crimes,. This means crime is more prevalent in the Makana area of the district. This means greater focus should be placed on the Grahamstown area in providing support to victims of these offences. Contact or Violent Crimes According to the Statistics released by the South African Police Services, certain contact or violent crimes pose a more serious threat to communities than crime in general. Contact or Violent Crimes such as Murder, Attempted Murder, Sexual Offences, Aggravated Robbery and Common Robbery are not ranked amongst the Top Ten Crimes committed in the Sarah Baartman District. These crimes do however present a distinct threat to society and are an indication of social and socio-economic circumstances.

26 HEALTH ANALYSIS HIV and Aids The District Municipality in partnership with the Sarah Baartman Department of Health and the various non-governmental organizations located in Sarah Baartman conducted several HCT campaigns to educate people about HIV and Aids and to encourage them to test in order to know their status. Also several candle lights memorials were held across the district in commemorating those who have died because of HIV and Aids and the families that were/are affected by this disease. According to the Sarah Baartman Eastern Cape Department of Health, the HIV and Aids prevalence rate in Sarah Baartman District has fluctuated over the period of 2002 to It has been observed that the HIV prevalence rate is high for women than men and affects mostly women aged between years of age. Table 2.29: HIV and Aids Prevalence EC vs SBDM YEAR EASTERN CAPE SARAH BAARTMAN DISTRICT (DC10) Statistics as per Sarah Baartman Department of Health: 2011 The District target set for the region: Camdeboo LSA = Kouga LSA = Makana LSA = In Sarah Baartman in general the HCT testing rate is above 90%, and below are the results per Local Service Area. Table 2.30: HIV and Aids testing results ELEMENT CAMDEBOO MAKANA LSA KOUGA LSA LSA HCT tested positive rate 6.2 % 9.1% 11% HCT adult male tested positive rate 4.5% 10.6% 10.2% HCT adult female tested positive 8.1% 8.5% 12.4% rate HCT child tested positive rate 3.9% 4.8% 3.3% HCT client screened for TB rate 68% 89% 46% HCT client referred for clinical 11% 11% 6.7% diagnosis of TB rate ART HIV/TB co-infection rate 17.1% 24.6% 0% ART pregnant women initiation rate 17.2% 7.4% 0% ART infants under 1 year initiation rate 13.3% 1.7% 0%

27 Currently in Sarah Baartman accredited ART sites are as follows: 47 clinics, 9 hospitals 4 TB hospitals and 1 Psychiatric Hospital 7 Mobile Clinics 2.8 ENVIRONMENTAL ASPECTS The Natural Environment: The diversity of the District s vegetation is reflected in the highly variable mosaic of geomorphology, topography, soil types, climate and rainfall that occurs in the region. The Sarah Baartman District Municipality includes elements of six biomes, i.e. the Fynbos, Subtropical Thicket, Forest, Succulent Karoo, Savannah and Grassland, which occur along with coastal vegetation, wetlands, pans and riverine vegetation types. Thicket (arid thicket, valley thicket, thicket and dune thicket), with greater than 65% coverage, is the predominant vegetation type of the District. Large contiguous patches of Fynbos occur in the central mountainous areas and western coastal forelands of the region. Smaller isolated patches of coastal, afromontane and Thornveldt forests, Alexandria grassland, Thornveldt, karoo and broken veldt are widely distributed through the District. The biomes represented in the District contain biodiversity of high global and national significance. Three of these fall within globally recognized biodiversity hotspots, namely the Cape Floristic Region, the Succulent Karoo Hotspot and the Maputaland-Pondoland-Albany Hotspot. The National Spatial Biodiversity Assessment (2004) identified nine broad priority areas for conservation action in South Africa and three of these are represented within the SBDM Bioregional Planning and Programmes: The bioregional programmes Cape Action for People and the Environment (CAPE), Subtropical Thicket Ecosystem Project (STEP) and the Succulent Karoo Ecosystem Plan (SKEP) converge in the area of the Sarah Baartman District Municipality. The outcomes and products of these bioregional programmes and their associated projects provide the SBDM and the local municipalities in the District with environmental tools and guideline for planning and decision-making in their IDPs. These bioregional programmes specifically seek to align local economic and social development needs of the region with biodiversity conservation targets. Linked to these programmes, there are a number of landscape scale initiatives being implemented in the area of the Sarah Baartman District, including the Garden Route Initiative, the Baviaanskloof Mega Reserve Project and the Greater Addo Elephant Park Project. These projects have as their primary aim the conservation of critical biodiversity and ecosystems, but they also provide vehicles for addressing social and economic upliftment through community involvement.

28 2.8.3 Ecosystem status: According to the STEP Handbook and Mapbook, the Sarah Baartman District includes a number of areas of high conservation importance, including three priority river corridors and extensive areas along the coast and central interior that are considered critically endangered, threatened and vulnerable. According to the National Spatial Biodiversity Assessment (2004), all of the main river systems in the Sarah Baartman District are endangered or critically endangered and much of the region is highly susceptible to alien plant invasion. The temporary open estuaries and estuarine lakes that abound along the coast are either vulnerable or threatened and the permanently open estuaries are endangered. All of these estuaries are either hardly protected or not protected at all Protected areas in the Sarah Baartman District: The area of the Sarah Baartman District Municipality includes a wide range of formally protected areas that vary considerable in size and geography. These protected areas range from national parks (Camdeboo, Tsitsikamma and Addo), provincial reserves (e.g. Baviaanskloof which is also a world heritage site, Groendal, parts of the Great Fish River Reserve complex, and a number of smaller reserves, including Waters Meeting 1 & 2 and Thomas Baines) and numerous municipal reserves, e.g. Kap River, Loerie Dam, Gamtoos Coastal, Huisklip and Great Fish River Wetland. These reserves all contribute significantly to the protected area estate of the District and the Province.

29 PART THREE Risk Assessment Process A INTRODUCTION 5 Page Background 5 Scope 5 B RISK ASSESSMENT 9 Objectives of the Risk Assessment 9 Risk Assessment Process 10 What Should Be Included 10 Steps to Follow 10 C ASSESSING THE LOCAL RISKS 11 Baviaans Local Municipality 11 Blue Crane Local Municipality 18 Camdeboo Local Municipality 25 Ikwezi Local Municipality 31 Kouga Local Municipality 37 Kou Kamma Local Municipality 45 Makana Local Municipality 52 Nlambe Local Municipality 58 Sundays River Local Municipality 66

30 D SUMMARISED RISK MATRICES 73 E TOP PRIORITY RISK ASSESSMNENT SUMMARIES 78 F IMPACT OF RELEVANT GLOBAL RISK CONDITIONS 81 Climate Change Tidal Surges Diseases G RECOMMENDED WAY FORWARD 86 H GENERIC CONTACT INFORMATION - MUNICIPALITIES 87

31 A INTRODUCTION 1.1 Scope Rural Metro is aware that the primary purpose of the project is to review the existing Disaster Risk Management Assessment with a view to identifying Communities and Infrastructure at risk. In order to allow the Sarah Baartman District Municipality to present a comprehensive Disaster Risk Management Plan in terms of the Disaster Management Act, the proposed review will focus on the following areas: (a) A study of all existing documents and plans with a view to identifying any gaps that may exist. (b) Individually visit each of the 9 Local Municipalities and 1 District Management Area. (c) Conduct interviews with municipal staff, provincial and national departments, N.G.O s and local communities to determine local conditions and circumstances. (d) Develop a Disaster Risk Profile which is unique to Sarah Baartman District Municipality and which can be effectively used to inform the District s Disaster Management Plan; Development of Contingency Plans; Development of Emergency Response Protocols; Risk Reduction Planning; and Alignment with the Municipal I.D.P. BACKGROUND 1.2. Sarah Baartman District Municipality Sarah Baartman district municipality is situated in the western portion of the Eastern Cape. It is the largest district in the province, being approximately km² in size. Sarah Baartman s boundaries stretch from Bloukrans River in the west to the Great Fish River in the east, Nieu-Bethesda in the north to the Indian Ocean in the south. The majority of its people speak isihosa. English and Afrikaans are the next, most widely spoken, languages. Sarah Baartman District Municipality incorporates nine local municipalities and four portions called District Management Areas (DMAs). Sarah Baartman s nine local municipalities and their key towns are: Baviaans (Steytlerville, Willowmore) Blue Crane Route (Cookhouse, Pearston, Somerset East) Camdeboo (Aberdeen, Graaff-Reinet, Nieu-Bethesda) Ikwezi (Jansenville, Klipplaat) Kouga (Hankey, Humansdorp, Jeffreys Bay, Oyster Bay, Patensie, St Francis Bay) Kou-Kamma (Joubertina, Kareedouw) Makana (Alicedale, Grahamstown, Riebeeck East) Ndlambe (Alexandria, Bathurst, Boknes, Bushmans River, Cannon Rocks, Kenton-on-Sea, Port Alfred) Sundays River Valley (Addo, Kirkwood, Paterson)

32 Nelson Mandela Bay municipality, comprising Port Elizabeth, Uitenhage and Despatch does not form part of the Sarah Baartman District Municipality. The seat of Sarah Baartman District Municipality is however, located in Port Elizabeth. The Tsitsikamma and Baviaans parks lie in the west of the district close to the Western Cape. The interior of the Sarah Baartman District is mainly dry Karoo and grasslands comprised of commercial farms. In spite of the barren interior, the Sundays and Fish Rivers maintain large irrigated farming areas and these rivers are supplied by water from the Orange River. The only eco-system not found in the Sarah Baartman District is the true desert. The district is one of the finest game viewing areas in South Africa. Grahamstown is home to Rhodes University and the National Arts Festival. Sarah Baartman is home to the Addo Elephant Park. The district has a marine protected area stretching ha across the Indian Ocean, and acts as a southern extension of the Addo elephant Park, and so Sarah Baartman is home to the world s first big seven game reserve. Sarah Baartman is also home to the world s highest commercial bungee jump, the first tree top canopy tour in South Africa, and the highest narrow gauge railway bridge in the world. Sarah Baartman has a population of more than 363, 585, which is the second smallest population of the districts. There are only 6 people living in the rural district per square kilometer, as the people living on the coast and more inland are often 100 s of kilometers apart. The Sarah Baartman District constitutes less than 5,3% (census 2001 stats) of the population of the Eastern Cape Province. The district is dominated by a Karoo landmass resulting in low population densities and scattered, small inland towns. There are higher densities along the coast and in urban centers. The population in the Sarah Baartman District is concentrated in Makana, Kouga and Ndlambe, with more than 50% of residents in the District residing in these Municipalities. The remaining Municipalities all have less than inhabitants per Municipality. There is a correlation in the concentration of the population and the growth trends, with Makana, Kouga & Ndlambe experiencing the most significant increases between 1996 and Camdeboo and Sundays River Valley have also experienced increases over this period. Agriculture dominates the districts economy, and there is also small-stock farming in the interior. Sarah Baartman is the centre of the wool and mohair industry in the Eastern Cape. Cattle and dairy farming is strong around Grahamstown, Cookhouse, Alexandria and Humansdorp. There is citrus farming from the Sundays and Fish Rivers. From St. Francis there is a small fishing industry. Tourism is well developed in Sarah Baartman and there is a group of tourism routes established in the district. The climate sees winter rainfalls of 500mm to 700mm annually along the coast with the dry interior supported by the Sundays and Fish Rivers, fed by the Orange River Project allowing viable, irrigated farms. Geographically, Sarah Baartman consists of a narrow coastal plain with longitudinal mountains separating the coast from the Karoo.

33 1.3 District Location Map The Sarah Baartman District is extensively covered by a network of both road and rail, with road being the preferred mode of transport. The rail network that used to be a vibrant back-bone to the economy of the District has been neglected and is in a state of dilapidation resulting in the collapse of towns like Cookhouse (Blue Crane Route), Paterson (Sundays River Valley) and Klipplaat (Ikwezi). A passenger mainline that goes from Port Elizabeth to Johannesburg passes through Addo, Paterson, Alicedale, Middleton Manner and Cookhouse Stations in the District. The narrow gauge line, well known as the Apple Express, occasionally operates leisure tours to Thornhill and Van Stadens River Bridge. Limited activity is also experienced in the Langkloof (Kareedouw, Krakeel, Louterwater with a branch to Patensie in Kou-Kamma Municipality) used for rolling stock. A total of 8 420km of roads cover the Sarah Baartman District. A vast portion (82% - approximately 6 880km) of the total road network is gravel roads.

34 B RISK ASSESSMENT Objectives of the Risk Assessment During a risk assessment, hazards are evaluated in terms of the likelihood that a problem may occur and the damage it would cause if such an event did occur. Adequate safety and emergency preparedness requires considering all of the possible hazards that could be encountered. Some hazards, however, are more likely to cause problems than others at a given mine and some would result in greater damage than would others. These differences are identified by conducting a risk analysis. The outcome of the analysis can be used to target resources at the types of events that are most likely to occur and/or are most destructive. Emergency situations that are very likely to happen and would do considerable damage to people and property should be targeted for immediate remediation and/or plans should be made for effective response if remediation isn t possible. Potential situations that are less likely or that would have less severe consequences are identified for attention after the more serious hazards have been addressed. One way to accomplish this is to start by determining all of the sources of hazards in the study area. The attached form called Potential Hazards can help organize the sources. Across the top of the form are labels for general types of hazards, such as transportation and electrical. The items should be as specific as possible. A blank Potential Hazards is included should you choose to write in other hazard categories. Evaluate the risks. While there might be many ways of assessing risk, literature suggests using the two concepts of probability of occurrence and severity of effects [DeVaul 1992; Hau 1993]. For each hazard identified a judgment needs to be made about the probability of a hazard resulting in an emergency event and the severity of the consequences if the situation did happen. Hazard Any situation that has potential to cause damage. Probability Likelihood that the particular hazard will result in damage at this location. Severity An estimation of how serious the potential problem might be in terms of harm to people and/or damage to property. It should be kept in mind that secondary incidents can occur as a result of the initial incident. Secondary incidents should also be considered during the rating process. In summary, to assess risk: (a) identify potential hazards; (b) determine whether the probability is high, medium, or low that the source will actually cause damage; and (c) determine if the seriousness to life, property, and the environment of such a hazard would be high, medium, or low. Using this model, those hazards that would lead to situations with the greatest probability for occurring and the greatest severity to the operation would be considered as high/high-risk hazards. They would be the first priority for future training, mitigation, and/or response preparation efforts.

35 C ASSESSING THE LOCAL RISK BAVIAANS LOCAL MUNICIPALITY Baviaans (Steytlerville, Willowmore) Baviaans Municipality includes the two small towns of Willowmore and Steytlerville. Willowmore is slightly larger than Steytlerville and presents a slightly higher fire risk. It was noted that Willowmore has a small central business district whilst Steytlerville has very few commercial occupancies. Willowmore and Steytlerville were noted to be about 88 kilometers apart and are linked by a single lane road. A view of the Willowmore business area The Main Street in Steytlerville

36 The Baviaans Local Municipality includes the following towns and villages; Steytlerville, Willowmore. Map of Baviaans Local Municipality Area The estimated population is in the region of The most significant roads passing through the area are the; N9 and R329. The approximate distance between Willowmore and Steytlerville is 84 kilometers. Overview of Town Infrastructures Steytlerville : Description Yes No Low cost housing settlements Formal housing suburbs Central business district / area Light industrial area Heavy industry Hospitals / clinics Petrol stations Bulk fuel depots Schools Large Shopping Centres Railway lines National roads (e.g. N2) Airfields Summary of Steytlerville Town Risk Infrastructure

37 Willowmore : Description Yes No Low cost housing settlements Formal housing suburbs Central business district / area Light industrial area Heavy industry Hospitals / clinics Petrol stations Bulk fuel depots Schools Large Shopping Centres Railway lines National roads (e.g. N2) Airfields Methodology of Assessment: Both Steytlerville and Willowmore were visited. This visit was conducted on Saturday 07/03/09. Previous discussions had been held with the District Disaster Management Officer. Being a Saturday there were no Official offices open to the public in Willowmore, however an Official was found at the Steytlerville Municipal Offices who was able to provide valuable information concerning both towns and was also able to contact a Councillor who in turn confirmed the information already gathered. Discussions were also held with members of the public at the Willowmore Hospital and the Steytlerville petrol station. ECONOMIC BASE The economic base of this Municipality is centered around the following two aspects: Agriculture, primarily goats and sheep. Tourism The physical environment lends itself to the agricultural streams of goat and sheep farming. The areas lend themselves to wide open spaces and the appropriate type of grazing. This has always been a traditional farming area. POTENTIAL DISASTER EVENTS An on the ground assessment by our resources has revealed that there are certainly specific potential for disasters in this Local Municipality Area. The assessment revealed the following information: Drought This is a prevailing and existing threat that has been a continuous hazard in the area for as long as the people who were interviewed can remember. The area is sparsely populated and the annual rainfall is very low which would account for the Drought Conditions.

38 Fire The vast agricultural areas and the dry windy conditions that are continuously present make the rural areas extremely vulnerable to runaway veld fires. The private systems and equipment that the farmers have in place are not adequate for the effective management of fires. The urbanized residential and commercial trade centres are equally vulnerable the fires. Epidemic Although there is no record or recollection of epidemics in the area, the threat of diseases such as Cholera, H.I.V. Aids and Foot and Mouth, must always be seen as possible events that must be planned for. Hazmat Although hazardous materials are transported by road through the Municipality as well as to various destinations within the Municipality, this is not a regular occurrence. The probability of a Hazmat incident occurring is very low; however it must be noted that neither Steytlerville nor Willowmore have the resources to manage a Hazmat incident on their own. Wind Storms Wind storms that are of a velocity sufficient enough to cause extensive damages to buildings and infrastructure (telephone lines etc.) are a regular occurrence in the area of the Municipality. AVAILABLE RESOURCES In order to ensure that one is in a position to manage and deal with a disaster event in a logical and sequential manner it is important that key roleplayers are identified. These include District Disaster Management Officer Municipal Departments in Willowmore (Head office) and Steytlerville Hospital at Willowmore Clinic at Steytlerville EMERGENCY RESPONSE SERVICES The identification of the appropriate Emergency Response is essential in developing the most accurate base information in order to respond.these would be S.A.P.S. in both centres Hospital with Ambulance service in Willowmore Clinic with Ambulance service in Steytlerville

39 PROPOSED LOCATION FOR THE J.O.C It is widely accepted that the most Joint Operational Centres are often located at the premises of the South African Police Services. This make for more streamlined and focused co-ordination. In the case of this Municipality this would be: Willowmore S.A.P.S. Steytlerville.S.A.P.S. AVAILABLE STRUCTURES FOR USE AS AN EMERGENCY EVACUATION CENTRE Civic Centre Surrounding Farm Sheds IDENTIFIED VULNERABLE INFRASTRUCTURE There are a number and or variety of structures that can in terms of Disaster Management thinking be considered to be of a vulnerable nature. These can, in the case of this Local Municipality, include: The water supply system Municipal oxidation dams The established local electricity supply grid The municipal sewerage and related systems Telecommunications and other communications systems Networked roads and bridges within the Municipal area. COMMUNITIES AT RISK In all Municipalities there are often some communities that are more vulnerable to risks than others within a Municipal Area. In the case of this Municipality these have been identified as: The Baviaans Municipality area is dominated by agriculturural activities which are widely spread throughout the area with homesteads and farm villages being isolated by vast distances. These can be particularly prone to fires. With the exception of the two small trade centres of Willowmore and Steytlerville, there is very little available emergency services available to the largely farming community. In essence uncontrollable fires are the prime threats throughout the area of Baviaans Municipality with all communities (both urban and rural) being equally at risk.

40 PREVENTATIVE MEASURES In this point some direction is provided on preventative measures. The details of prevention will be enscapilated in the detailed contingency plans. Although the Farmers are dealing with Drought in their own manner and seem to have some sort of system in place to deal with fires, there is no real structures, systems or plans in place to manage any of the identified hazards or threats in a structured, coordinated manner BLUE CRANE LOCAL MUNICIPALITY Map of the Blue Crane Route Local Municipality Area The estimated population is in the region of The most significant roads passing through the area are the; N10, R61, R63, and R390, The approximate distance between the towns is; Somerset East to Pearston : 50 Km. Somerset East to Cookhouse: 25 Km. Cookhouse to Pearston : 25 Km.

41 Overview of Town Infrastructures Cookhouse Description Yes No Low cost housing settlements Formal housing suburbs Central business district / area Light industrial area Heavy industry Hospitals / clinics Petrol stations Bulk fuel depots Schools Large Shopping Centres Railway lines National roads (e.g. N2) Airfields Summary of Cookhouse Town Risk Infrastructure Pearston Description Yes No Low cost housing settlements Formal housing suburbs Central business district / area Light industrial area Heavy industry Hospitals / clinics Petrol stations Bulk fuel depots Schools Large Shopping Centres Railway lines National roads (e.g. N2) Airfields

42 Somerset - East Description Yes No Low cost housing settlements Formal housing suburbs Central business district / area Light industrial area Heavy industry Hospitals / clinics Petrol stations Bulk fuel depots Schools Large Shopping Centres National roads (e.g. N2) Airfields x Methodology of Assessment: The towns and villages of Somerset East, Cookhouse and Pearston were visited. Discussions were held with the District Disaster Management Officer, Municipal Officials and random members of the public. There were no Councillors available during the visits to the area. ECONOMIC BASE The economy of this Municipality is based, as are other Municipalities in this District, primarily on agriculture. In essence the activities that dominate are: Agriculture Cattle and Goat Farming Game Farming; and Tourism POTENTIAL DISATER EVENTS Fire There is no real effective fire service in The Blue Crane Route Municipal area of responsibility. Drought Drought is a continuous threat in this area. Severe Wind Storms High velocity winds are a regular occurrence in this region. Rain and hail storms are few and far between and are not regarded as threats. Epidemics The game, cattle and goat industries in the area are exposed to Foot and Mouth and other animal diseases. The poor living conditions of communities in this areas are conducive to the development of diseases such as Cholera and H.I.V.

43 Hazmat Road and Railway Hazardous materials are transported to and through the area of The Blue Crane Route on a regular basis by both rail and road transportation. AVAILABLE RESOURCES There are a number of identified resources that can assist and be accessed with regard to assistance. The details of these contacts can be contained in Contingency Plans. Points of contact are: Appointed Disaster Management Officials Municipalities (District and Locals) National Departments Provincial Departments Organised Agriculture Organised Business EMERGENCY RESPONSE SERVICES The provision of Emergency Response Team rests with a number of entities in this Municipality. These include: Protection Services (Fire and Traffic) Stationed at Somerset East but available for Cookhouse and Pearston S.A.P.S. Stations in all three towns Health Services o Hospitals At Somerset East only o Ambulance Somerset East only o Clinics At all three towns o Epidemic Outbreak Response Team Farmers Unions PROPOSED LOCATION FOR THE J.O.C. The proposed locations of a Joint Operations Centre can be located at: Somerset East Blue Crane Route Municipal Offices Cookhouse Blue Crane Route Municipal Satellite Offices in Cookhouse Pearston Blue Crane Route Municipal Satellite Offices in Pearston

44 EMERGENCY EVACUATION CENTRE In most cases of emergency or disaster the identification of an Emergency Evacuation Centre will be in most cases be a central location that can service the needs of large numbers of people. In addition it is advisable to identify a location where community members feel safe. These can be identified as: Town Halls Community Halls (including Farmers Halls) Churches Schools Sports Fields Hospital IDENTIFIED VULVERABLE INFRASTRUCTURE As in most Municipalities the following integral parts of the municipal infrastructure are vulnerable: Water reticulation and supply Sewerage treatment plants Electricity supply Storm water drainage Road infrastructure and bridges Railway infrastructure and bridges Communications COMMUNITIES AT RISK The Baviaans Municipal area is dominated by Agriculture which is widely spread throughout the area with homesteads and farm villages being isolated by vast distances. With the exception of the two trade centers of Willowmore and Steytlerville, there is very little Emergency Services available to the Farming community. Uncontrollable fires are the prime threats throughout the area of Baviaans with all communities (both urban and rural) being equally at risk. PREVENTATIVE MEASURES There are structures in place but they are fragmented and insufficient to effectively manage disaster incidents.

45 CAMDEBOO LOCAL MUNICIPALITY The Camdeboo Local Municipality includes the following towns and villages; Aberdeen, Graaff-Reinet, Nieu-Bethesda Map of Camdeboo Local Municipality Area Map of the Camdeboo Local Municipality Area The estimated population is in the region of The most significant roads passing through the area are the; N9, R63, and R61. The approximate distance between the towns is; Graaff Reinet to Aberdeen : 55 Km. Graaff Reinet to Neiu Bethesda : 52 Km. Neiu Bethesda to Aberdeen : 107 Km.

46 Overview of Town Infrastructures Aberdeen Description Yes No Low cost housing settlements Formal housing suburbs Central business district / area Light industrial area Heavy industry Hospitals / clinics Petrol stations Bulk fuel depots Schools Large Shopping Centres Railway lines National roads (e.g. N2) Airfields Summary of Aberdeen Town Risk Infrastructure Graaf Reinet Description Yes No Low cost housing settlements Formal housing suburbs Central business district / area Light industrial area Heavy industry Hospitals / clinics Petrol stations Bulk fuel depots Schools Large Shopping Centres Railway lines National roads (e.g. N2) Airfields Summary of Graaff - Reinet Town Risk Infrastructure

47 Nieu Bethesda Description Yes No Low cost housing settlements Formal housing suburbs Central business district / area Light industrial area Heavy industry Hospitals / clinics Petrol stations Bulk fuel depots Schools Large Shopping Centres Railway lines National roads (e.g. N2) Airfields Summary of Nieu - Bethesda Town Risk Infrastructure Methodology of Assessment: Discussions were held with the District Disaster Management Officer. The towns of Graaf-Reinet, Aberdeen and New Bethesda were visited. Discussions were held with the Municipal Manager, Councilors and Officials of Camdeboo, the Head of Camdeboo Protection Services, members of the S.A.P.S. and random members of the public in all three centres. ECONOMIC BASE The economic bases and primary economic activities of this Municipalities are centred around: Agriculture Tourism Urbanised Industrial and Trade Centres POTENTIAL DISASTER EVENTS Drought Drought is historically a continuous threat in this area. Fire The vast agricultural areas and the dry windy conditions make the rural areas extremely vulnerable to runaway veld fires. There is an established Fire Brigade service stationed at Graaf-Reinet which provides a response service to Aberdeen and New Bethesda but the distances make response times difficult.

48 Flood The main threat of flooding is to the urbanized commercial trade centre and residential areas of Graaf-Reinet. The Protection Services have contingency plans in place to manage flooding in Graaf-Reinet. Storms Storms, mainly wind storms are a regular occurrence in the Camdeboo area. Hazmat Hazardous materials are transported to and through the area of responsibility of Camdeboo Municipality by both rail and road on a regular basis. The Fire Brigade service at Graaf-Reinet is equipped to manage Hazmat incidents in its area. AVAILABLE RESOURCES District Disaster Management Officer Municipal Disaster Management Officer Camdeboo Disaster Management Advisory Forum Municipal Protection Services S.A.P.S. Provincial Departments (Health / Ambulance Services /Traffic / Social Services) Hospital and Clinics EMERGENCY RESPONSE Municipal Protection Services S.A.P.S. Ambulance Services Hospital and Clinics EMERGENCY EVACUATION CENTRES S.A.P.S. Training Centre Town Halls Community Halls Schools VULNERABLE INFRASTRUCTURE. Storm water drainage systems Sewerage systems Electricity supply Communications Roads and bridges

49 IDENTIFIED COMMUNITIES AT RISK The town of Graaf-Reinet is situated at a level that is lower than the Dam above the town. The river below the dam flows a natural course through parts of both the Commercial and the Residential areas of the town. Flooding is a prime threat that has been identified by the Municipality who have developed an effective contingency for the evacuation of communities at risk if required to do so. The villages of Neu-Bethesda and Aberdeen are mainly trade centers for the vast, wide spread agriculture industry. Emergency Services in these areas are limited to the S.A.P.S. and thereafter they are reliant on assistance and support from Graaf- Reinet. Uncontrolled fires are the main threat in these areas. Farmers deal with incidents on their own, using their own resources, with the result that there is a fragmented response. PREVENTATIVE MEASURES Camdeboo Municipality does have an established Disaster Management Advisory Forum and does have an active Municipal Protection services. The only obstacle in the efficient implementation of the Municipality s disaster management plans is the vast distances between the three towns. IKWEZI LOCAL MUNICIPALITY The Ikwezi Local Municipality includes the following towns and villages; Jansenville, Klipplaat. Map of Ikwezi Local Municipality Area The estimated population is in the region of The most significant roads passing through the area are the;

50 R75, R329, and R338. The approximate distance between the towns is; Jansenville to Klipplaat : 35 Km. Overview of Town Infrastructures Jansenville Description Yes No Low cost housing settlements Formal housing suburbs Central business district / area Light industrial area Heavy industry Hospitals / clinics Petrol stations Bulk fuel depots Schools Large Shopping Centres Railway lines National roads (e.g. N2) Airfields Summary of Jansenville Town Risk Infrastructure Klipplaat Description Yes No Low cost housing settlements Formal housing suburbs Central business district / area Light industrial area Heavy industry Hospitals / clinics Petrol stations Bulk fuel depots Schools Large Shopping Centres Railway lines National roads (e.g. N2) Airfields Summary of Klipplaat Town Risk Infrastructure

51 Methodology of Assessment: ECONOMIC BASE The towns of Jansenville, Klipplaat and the village of Waterford were visited. Discussions were held with the District Disaster Management Officer, Municipal Officials and Councilors of Ikwezi, member of the S.A.P.S. and random members of the public. The economic base of this Municipality is largely agriculture but there strong elements of tourism: Agriculture (Goats, Sheep & Game) Tourism POTENTIAL DISASTER EVENTS Drought Is a serious threat, especially in the rural agricultural sector. Fire There is a Volunteer Fire Service at Jansenville which services the whole Ikwezi Municipal area. Vast distances adversely affect response times. Wind Storms Ikwezi is one of the Local Municipality within the Sarah Baartman District that describes the Wind Storms in its area as Tornadoes. Severe wind storms are a regular occurrence in this area. Epidemic This is a low priority threat which has no record of occurrence in this area but which must none the less be recognized as a possibility and must therefore be planned for. Hazmat Hazardous materials are transported to and through the area of jurisdiction of Ikwezi on a regular basis. The Municipality is, however, not adequately equipped to manage a Hazmat incident.

52 AVAILABLE RESOURCES There are a number of resources that can assist with any potential disasters: District Disaster Management Officer Municipal Disaster Management Officer Ikwezi Disaster Management Advisory Forum Fire Station One at Jansenville (will respond to Klipplaat & Waterford) Hospitals and Clinics:- o JANSENVILLE One Hospital and two Clinics o KLIPPLAAT One Clinic o Waterford One Mobile Clinic EMERGENCY RESPONSE SERVICES The emergency response teams are located and can be dispatched from the following locations: FIRE BRIGADE SERVICES Jansenville only S.A.P.S. Jansenville and Klipplaat AMBULANCE SERVICES Jansenville and Klipplaat PROPOSED LOCATION OF THE J.O.C. As a result of discussions with a number of role-players and stakeholders there is agreement that the Joint Operations Centre could well be situated at : JANSENVILLE At the Municipal Offices KLIPPLAAT At the Municipal Offices WATERFORD At the Community Hall EMERGENCY EVACUATION CENTRES TOWN HALL Jansenville only COMMUNITY HALLS Jansenville, Klipplaat and Waterford CHURCHES Jansenville, Klipplaat and Waterford SCHOOLS Jansenville and Klipplaat only IDENTIFIED VULNERABLE INFRASTRUCTURE Storm water drainage systems Sewerage systems Electricity supply Communications Roads and bridges

53 IDENTIFIED COMMUNITIES AT RISK The villages of Jansenville and Klipplaat are trade centers for the community of Ikwezi which is mainly focused on agriculture. The limited emergency services stationed in the two villages do not have the capacity to provide an effective response service to wide spread farm homesteads and villages in the area. Uncontrolled fires are the priority threat in this municipality due to the limited resources and equipment. PREVENTATIVE MEASURES There are no real structures or systems in place to manage any of the identified hazards or threats in a structured, co-ordinated manner. KOUGA LOCAL MUNICIPALITY The Koega Local Municipality includes the following towns and villages; Hankey, Humansdorp, Jeffreys Bay, Oyster Bay, Patensie, St Francis Bay, Cape St Francis. Map of Kouga Local Municipality Area

54 The estimated population is in the region of The most significant roads passing through the area are the; N2, R62, R330, and R331. The approximate distance between the towns is; Humansdorp to Hankey : 28 Km. Humansdorp to Patensie : 42 Km. Patensie to Hankey : 14 Km. Humansdorp to Jeffreys Bay : 17 Km. Humansdorp to Oyster Bay : 19 Km. Humansdorp to C S Francis : 24 Km. Hankey Description Yes No Informal squatter settlements Low cost housing settlements Formal housing suburbs Central business district / area Light industrial area Heavy industry Hospitals / clinics Petrol stations Bulk fuel depots Schools Large Shopping Centres Prisons Railway lines National roads (e.g. N2) Airfields Summary of Hankey Town Risk Infrastructure Humansdorp Description Yes No Low cost housing settlements Formal housing suburbs Central business district / area Light industrial area Heavy industry Hospitals / clinics Petrol stations Bulk fuel depots Schools Large Shopping Centres Railway lines National roads (e.g. N2) Airfields x

55 Jeffrey s Bay Description Yes No Low cost housing settlements Formal housing suburbs Central business district / area Light industrial area Heavy industry Hospitals / clinics Petrol stations Bulk fuel depots Schools Large Shopping Centres Railway lines National roads (e.g. N2) Airfields x Oyster Bay Summary of Jeffreys Bay Town Risk Infrastructure Description Yes No Low cost housing settlements Formal housing suburbs Central business district / area Light industrial area Heavy industry Hospitals / clinics Petrol stations Bulk fuel depots Schools Large Shopping Centres Railway lines National roads (e.g. N2) Airfields Patensie Description Yes No Low cost housing settlements Formal housing suburbs Central business district / area Light industrial area Heavy industry Hospitals / clinics Petrol stations Bulk fuel depots Schools Large Shopping Centres Railway lines National roads (e.g. N2) Airfields

56 St Francis Bay / Cape St Francis Description Yes No Low cost housing settlements Formal housing suburbs Central business district / area Light industrial area Heavy industry Hospitals / clinics Petrol stations Bulk fuel depots Schools Large Shopping Centres Railway lines National roads (e.g. N2) Airfields Summary of Various Town Risk Infrastructure ECONOMIC BASE The economic base of this Local Municipality is largely centred around tourism. There is also a fair degree of agricultural activities. Tourism Agriculture (Dairy, Timber and Citrus) Urban Commercial trade centres POTENTIAL DISASTER EVENTS Flood Flooding is seasonal and is part of the severe storms of the area. Fire There is a Fire Brigade Service with stations at Humansdorp, Jeffreys Bay and St. Francis bay. These services have, however, limited resources. Drought Although drought does occur in the area it is not regarded as a high priority risk. Storms (Wind and Hail) Kouga is a Coastal Municipality and is exposed to all types of severe storms. Epidemic Beef and dairy farming is a huge industry within the Kouga municipal area, therefore Foot and Mouth is a real threat to the industry and also to the economy of the area. Cholera and H.I.V. cannot be discounted.

57 Tidal Surge Being a Coastal Municipality Kouga is vulnerable to the effects of abnormal tidal surges. Most of the Tourism industry of Kouga is situated along the coast line. Hazmat Hazardous Materials are transported to and through Kouga by both road and rail on a regular basis. There is a limited capacity to manage a Hazmat incident. Accidents (Maritime, Railway and Aircraft) Irrespective of the low priority risk, every municipality, including Kouga, is vulnerable to the possibility of a major aircraft accident. The Koga coast line forms part of the main shipping lanes on the East Coast of Africa and is therefore vulnerable to Maritime accidents. AVAILABLE RESOURCES District Disaster Management Official Municipal Disaster Management Official Established Disaster Management Advisory Forum Municipal Fire Department Municipal Traffic Department Municipal Health Department Established Municipal Departments Organised Agriculture Organised Business EMERGENCY RESPONSE SERVICES The identification of places that would be origins of emergency response teams: S.A.P.S. (4 Stations) Municipal Fire Department State aided Hospital (including Clinics and Ambulance Service)) Municipal and Provincial Traffic Departments Private Ambulance Services F.P.A. PROPOSED LOCATION OF THE J.O.C The following locations are the proposed locations of the Joint Operations Centres: Jeffreys Bay S.A.P.S. Humansdorp Fire Station (Alternative Ambulance CCC.) Hankey S.A.P.S. Patensie S.A.P.S. Thornhill S.A.P.S. St. Francis Bay S.A.P.S.

58 EMERGENCY EVACUATION CENTRE The identification of venues that are central and accessible to communities are normally identified as the following type of vehicles: Town Halls Community Halls Farmers Halls Sports Fields Churches Schools IDENTIFIED VULNERABLE INFRASTRUCTURE The following are considered to be generic vulnerable infrastructures within Municipal areas: Roads, Railway Tracks and Bridges Electrical Supply Sub-Stations in all secondary villages Storm water drainage in all Urbanized commercial and residential areas Sewerage systems in all Urbanized commercial and residential areas Harbours IDENTIFIED COMMUNITIES AT RISK Stofwolk in the village of Hankey is the most vulnerable community in the Kouga municipal area. Due to the high density of the structures and the inferior building materials used to build the structures, Stofwolk is an informal settlement that is exposed the threats of fires, floods, severe wind storms and diseases. At least half of the village of St. Francis Bay is exposed to flooding and tidal surges. PREVENTATIVE MEASURES There are response structures in place, however resources are limited, distances are vast and response times are restricted.

59 KOU KAMMA LOCAL MUNICIPALITY The Kou Kamma Local Municipality includes the following towns and villages; Joubertina, Kareedouw, Map of Kou Kamma Local Municipality Map of the Kou Kamma Local Municipality Area The estimated population is in the region of The most significant roads passing through the area are the; N2 and R62. The approximate distance between the towns is; Joubertina to Kareedouw : 44 Km. Overview of Town Infrastructures

60 Joubertina Description Yes No Low cost housing settlements Formal housing suburbs Central business district / area Light industrial area Heavy industry Hospitals / clinics Petrol stations Bulk fuel depots Schools Large Shopping Centres Railway lines National roads (e.g. N2) Airfields Summary of Joubertina Town Risk Infrastructure Kareedouw Description Yes No Low cost housing settlements Formal housing suburbs Central business district / area Light industrial area Heavy industry Hospitals / clinics Petrol stations Bulk fuel depots Schools Large Shopping Centres Railway lines National roads (e.g. N2) Airfields x Summary of Kareedouw Town Risk Infrastructure

61 ECONOMIC BASE The Local Municipality of Kareedouw economy is deeply routed in agriculture with an element of tourism. Agriculture (Timber, Dairy, Sheep and Fruit) Tourism (Tsitsikamma Forest Reserve) Urban Trade and Industry POTENTIAL DISASTER EVENTS Floods Flooding is seasonal and is part of the severe storms of the area. Fire There is a Fire Brigade Service stationed at Kareedouw. This service has, however, limited resources. Drought Although drought does occur in the area it is not regarded as a high priority risk. Storms (Wind and Hail) Kou-Kamma is a Coastal Municipality and is exposed to all types of severe storms. Epidemic Dairy and beef farming is a huge industry within the Kou-Kamma municipal area, therefore Foot and Mouth is a real threat to the industry and also to the economy of the area. Cholera and H.I.V. cannot be discounted Tidal Surge Being a Coastal Municipality Kou-Kamma is vulnerable to the effects of abnormal tidal surges. Most of the Tourism industry of Kou-Kamma is situated along the coast line. Hazmat Hazardous Materials are transported to and through Kou-Kamma by both road and rail on a regular basis. There is a limited capacity to manage a Hazmat incident. Accidents (Maritime, Railway and Aircraft) Irrespective of the low priority risk, every municipality, including Kou-Kamma, is vulnerable to the possibility of a major aircraft accident. The Kou-Kamma coast line forms part of the main shipping lanes on the East Coast of Africa and is therefore vulnerable to Maritime accidents.

62 AVAILABLE RESOURCES The following are identified as some of the resources that can be used in a period of crisis: District Disaster Management Official Municipal Disaster Management Official Municipal Fire Department Municipal Traffic Department Municipal Health Department Established Municipal Departments Organised Agriculture Hospital Schools EMERGENCY RESPONSE SERVICES In the case of this Municipality the following entities can be determined to be sources of emergency response teams: S.A.P.S. (4 Stations) Municipal Fire Department State aided Hospital (including Clinics and Ambulance Service)) Municipal and Provincial Traffic Departments Private Ambulance Services F.P.A. Farmers Unions PROPOSED LOCATION OF THE JOC The proposed location of the Joint Operations Centres could be based at : Joubertina S.A.P.S. Kareedouw S.A.P.S. Storms River S.A.P.S. EMERGENCY EVACUATION CENTRES Potential evacuation centres could be identified to be: Town Hall Community Halls Churches Schools Hospital

63 IDENTIFIED VULNERABLE INFRASTRUCTURE The following generic infrastructure points that need to be taken into account are: Storm Water Drainage in Urban Business and Residential areas Electricity Sub-Station Road and Rail bridges Communications IDENTIFIED COMMUNITIES AT RISK Large tracts within the Kou-Kamma Uncontrolled fires are the prime threats throughout Kou-Kamma municipal area which includes the villages of Kareedouw, Joubertina and Storms River. The Tsitsikama National Park near Storms River is extremely vulnerable to fires. Emergency Services resources are limited and therefore not effective. PREVENTATIVE MEASURES There are response structures in place, however resources are limited, distances are vast and response times are restricted. MAKANA LOCAL MUNICIPALITY The Makana Local Municipality includes the following towns and villages; Alicedale, Grahamstown, Riebeeck East.

64 Map of the Makana Local Municipality Area The estimated population is in the region of The most significant roads passing through the area are the; N2, R67, and R350. The approximate distance between the towns is; Grahamstown to Alicedale : 53 Km. Grahamstown to Riebeeck East: 40 Km. Overview of Town Infrastructures Alicedale Description Yes No Low cost housing settlements Formal housing suburbs Central business district / area Light industrial area Heavy industry Hospitals / clinics Petrol stations Bulk fuel depots Schools Large Shopping Centres Railway lines National roads (e.g. N2) Airfields Summary of Alicedale Town Risk Infrastructure Grahamstown Description Yes No Low cost housing settlements Formal housing suburbs Central business district / area Light industrial area Heavy industry Hospitals / clinics Petrol stations Bulk fuel depots Schools Large Shopping Centres Railway lines National roads (e.g. N2) Airfields Higher Educational Institutions Summary of Grahamstown Town Risk Infrastructure

65 Riebeeck East Description Yes No Low cost housing settlements Formal housing suburbs Central business district / area Light industrial area Heavy industry Hospitals / clinics Petrol stations Bulk fuel depots Schools Large Shopping Centres Railway lines National roads (e.g. N2) Airfields Summary of Riebeeck East Town Risk Infrastructure Alicedale and Riebeeck East have no fire station facilities. ECONOMIC BASE The economic base for this Local Municipality is largely confined to agriculture and tourism. There is also a strong educational influence. Agriculture (Dairy/Beef, Coffee and Pineapples) Tourism University City Urban Industrial and Trade Centre POTENTIAL DISASTER EVENTS Severe Storms (Wind, Hail and Tornado) Makana Municipality is exposed to all types of severe storms. Floods Flooding is seasonal and is part of the severe storms of the area. Fire There is an established Fire Brigade Service stationed at Grahamstown which provides a response service to the other towns and villages within the Makana Municipal area. Drought Drought does exist in the Makana area but is not a major priority risk. Epidemics Dairy and beef farming form part of the economic base of Makana and therefore epidemics like Foot and Mouth disease are a real threat. Cholera and H.I.V. must also not be discounted as threats.

66 Hazmat Hazardous materials are transported through the area of Makana on a regular basis by both rail and road. There is a limited capacity to manage a Hazmat incident. AVAILABLE RESOURCES The following entities can be determined to be resources that can be used in time of crisis: District Disaster Management Officer Municipal Disaster Management Officer Municipal Protection Services ( Fire Department and Traffic Department) Established Municipal Departments EMERGENCY RESPONSE SERVICES As in all other Municipalities the following services would play a vital role in any disaster. The details of these response teams would be enscapulated in the detailed contingency plans of the Municipality. S.A.P.S. Fire Department Ambulance Services Traffic (municipal and Provincial) F.P.A. PROPOSED LOCATION OF THE J.O.C Potential locations of Joint Operations Centres would be: Grahamstown Fire Station Riebeeck East Municipal Offices Seven Fountains S.A.P.S. Alicedale Bushman Sands Hotel EMERGENCY EVACUATION CENTRES Town Halls Community Halls Churches Schools Hospital IDENTIFIED VULNERABLE INFRASTRUCTURE Storm Water Drainage in Urban Industrial Trade Centres and Residential areas Electricity Supply Road and Rail bridges Communications

67 IDENTIFIED COMMUNITIES AT RISK The town of Grahamstown is a well established historical town with a great selection of old churches and educational centres including Rhodes University. It has a well established municipal infrastructure including a tried and tested Emergency Service. In all essence there are no communities at high risk. However the areas surrounding Riebeek-East and Alicedale are primarily of an agricultural nature and orientation and therefore exposed to uncontrolled fires. Resources are limited and these areas and there is a great reliance on Grahamstown for support and assistance in times of emergency. PREVENTATIVE MEASURES There are structures in place to respond to any of the identified threats or hazards, however resources are limited, distances are vast and response times are restricted. NDLAMBE LOCAL MUNICIPALITY NDLAMBE LOCAL MUNICIPALITY The Ndlambe Local Municipality includes the following towns and villages Alexandria, Bathurst, Boknes, Bushman s River, Cannon Rocks, Kenton-on-Sea, Port Alfred. Map of Ndlambe Local Municipality Area Map of the Ndlambe Local Municipality Area The estimated population is in the region of The most significant roads passing through the area are the;

68 N2, R67, R72, and R342. The approximate distance between the towns is; Port Alfred to Alexandria : 50 Km. Port Alfred to Bathurst : 17 Km. Port Alfred to Kenton on Sea : 25 Km. Kenton on Sea to Alexandria : 25 Km. Overview of Town Infrastructures Alexandria Description Yes No Low cost housing settlements Formal housing suburbs Central business district / area Light industrial area Heavy industry Hospitals / clinics Petrol stations Bulk fuel depots Schools Large Shopping Centres Railway lines National roads (e.g. N2) Airfields Summary of Alexandria Town Risk Infrastructure Bathurst Description Yes No Low cost housing settlements Formal housing suburbs Central business district / area Light industrial area Heavy industry Hospitals / clinics Petrol stations Bulk fuel depots Schools Large Shopping Centres Railway lines National roads (e.g. N2) Airfields Summary of Bathurst Town Risk Infrastructure

69 Kenton on Sea Description Yes No Low cost housing settlements Formal housing suburbs Central business district / area Light industrial area Heavy industry Hospitals / clinics Petrol stations Bulk fuel depots Schools Large Shopping Centres Railway lines National roads (e.g. N2) Airfields Summary of Kenton on Sea Town Risk Infrastructure Port Alfred Description Yes No Low cost housing settlements Formal housing suburbs Central business district / area Light industrial area Heavy industry Hospitals / clinics Petrol stations Bulk fuel depots Schools Large Shopping Centres Railway lines National roads (e.g. N2) Airfields (Flight School)

70 Methodology of Assessment: The towns and villages of Port Alfred, Kenton-On-Sea, Alexandria, Seafield, Boknes and Canyon Rocks were visited. Discussions were held with the District Disaster Management Officer, municipal Officials, Councillors, the S.A.P.S. and random members of the public. ECONOMIC BASE The economic base of the Ndlambe Local Municipality is deemed to be primarily agriculture. Agriculture (Dairy/Beef, Coffee and Pineapples) Tourism POTENTIAL DISASTER EVENTS Severe Storms (Wind, Hail and Tornado) Ndlambe is a Coastal Municipality and experiences all kinds of severe storms Floods Flooding is seasonal and is part of the severe storms of the area. Fire There is a Fire Brigade service stationed at Prot Alfred as part of the Municipal Protection Services. Not only are veld fires and fires in informal settlements are a problem, but the coastal region is mainly part of the tourism industry with the result that most of the residential areas have many holiday cottages which are mostly unoccupied. Drought Drought does exist in the Ndlambe area but is not a high priority risk. Epidemics Dairy and beef farming is a huge industry within the Ndlambe Municipality, therefore Foot and Mouth is a real threat to the industry and economy of the area. Cholera and H.I.V. can also not be discounted. Hazmat Hazardous materials are transported to and through the area of Ndlambe by road on a regular basis. There is a limited capacity to manage a Hazmat incident. Tidal Surge Being a coastal municipality, Ndlambe is vulnerable to the effects of abnormal tidal surges. Most of the Tourism industry of Ndlambe is situated along the Coast Line.

71 Accidents (Maritime and Aircraft) Every municipality including Ndlambe is vulnerable to the possibility of a major aircraft accident irrespective of the low priority risk. The Ndlambe coast line forms part of the main shipping lanes on the East Coast of Africa and is therefore vulnerable to Maritime disasters. AVAILABLE RESOURCES The available resources that can be accessed in relation to any potential disaster are; District Disaster Management Officer Municipal Disaster Management Officer Municipal Protection Services ( Fire Department and Traffic Department) Established Municipal Departments EMERGENCY RESPONSE SERVICES Response teams can be comprised of and drawn from the following services; S.A.P.S. Fire Department Ambulance Services Traffic (municipal and Provincial) N.S.R.I. F.P.A. Provincial Departments (Social Services / Health / transport) PROPOSED LOCATION OF THE J.O.C The proposed locations of the Joint Operations Centres could be based at : Port Alfred Fire Station Corner of Albany and Bathurst Streets. Kenton-On-Sea S.A.P.S. Alexandria Alexandria Municipal Offices Seafield S.A.P.S. Boknes and Canyon Rocks S.A.P.S. Kenton-On-Sea EMERGENCY EVACUATION CENTRE The access to and ability to cope with potentially large numbers of people are critical to an emergency evacuation centre. These are normally the following. Details of these venues will be contained in the contingency plans and detailed resources database. Town Halls Community Halls Churches Schools Hospital

72 IDENTIFIED VULNERABLE INFRASTRUCTURE These are identified as: Storm Water Drainage in Urban Industrial Trade Centres and Residential areas Electricity Supply Road and Rail bridges Communications IDENTIFIED COMMUNITIES AT RISK The fact that the Ndlambe Municipality is a Coastal Municipality and is therefore fundamentally exposed to the threat of possible increased tidal surges which can be aggravated by the onset of global warming and the effect of climate change. The vulnerable communities in this respect are any which live or reside directly along this stretch of the coastline. In addition the the Kwanonqubela settlement in Alexandria has been assessed to be a priority vulnerable community in the Ndlambe Municipality. Of significance is that it is exposed to the threats of fires, severe wind storms and flooding. In Port Alfred the New Rest informal settlement is also an area of concern. It is exposed to possibilities of flooding and fires due to the flat unprotected layout of the settlement and the close proximity of structures to each other. PREVENTATIVE MEASURES There are structures in place to respond to any of the indentified threats or hazards, however resources are limited, distances are vast and response times are restricted.

73 SUNDAYS RIVER VALLEY LOCAL MUNICIPALITY Sundays River Valley (Addo, Kirkwood, Paterson) The Sundays River Valley Local Municipality includes the following towns and villages; Addo, Kirkwood Paterson Map of Sundays River Local Municipality Area The estimated population is in the region of The most significant roads passing through the area are the; N10, N2, R334, R335, R336, and R342. The Nanaga interchange which has been the scene of many serious motor vehicle accidents also falls with the jurisdiction of the Sundays River Valley fire brigade service. The approximate distance between the towns is; Kirkwood to Paterson : 65 Km. Kirkwood to Addo : 33 Km. Paterson to Addo : 37 Km.

74 Overview of Town Infrastructures Addo Description Yes No Low cost housing settlements Formal housing suburbs Central business district / area Light industrial area Heavy industry Hospitals / clinics Petrol stations Bulk fuel depots Schools Large Shopping Centres Railway lines National roads (e.g. N2) Airfields Summary of Addo Town Risk Infrastructure Kirkwood Description Yes No Low cost housing settlements Formal housing suburbs Central business district / area Light industrial area Heavy industry Hospitals / clinics Petrol stations Bulk fuel depots Schools Large Shopping Centres Railway lines National roads (e.g. N2) Airfields Summary of Various Town Risk Infrastructure

75 Paterson Description Yes No Low cost housing settlements Formal housing suburbs Central business district / area Light industrial area Heavy industry Hospitals / clinics Petrol stations Bulk fuel depots Schools Large Shopping Centres Railway lines National roads (e.g. N2) Airfields Summary of Paterson Town Risk Infrastructure Methodology of Assessment: The towns and villages of Kirkwood, Addo and Paterson were visited. Discussions were held with the District Disaster Management Officer, Municipal Officials, Councilors, the S.A.P.S., the National Parks and random members of the public. ECONOMIC BASE The economic base and primary economic activities in this Local Municipality is centred primarily around agriculture. These activities are: Agriculture Citrus Cattle Goats Game Tourism Industrial Focus on citrus products Urban commercial trade POTENTIAL DISASTER EVENTS Drought Although drought is a problem in the Sundays River Valley it is not regarded as a high priority. The main area of concern is in the National conservancy area of the Addo Elephant Park. Fire The Fire Brigade at Kirkwood is manned by Volunteers and is not effective as a service to the whole of the area of responsibility of the Sundays River Valley Municipality.

76 The National Parks at Addo Elephant Park have got their own infrastructure in place and believe that they are self-sufficient and are therefore not a part of any Municipal structures or systems. Hazmat Hazardous materials are transported to and through the area of Sundays River Valley on a regular basis by both rail and road. The Fire Brigade stationed at Kirkwood does not have the capacity to manage a Hazmat incident. Epidemics The game and cattle industry in the area, including the Addo Park area are areas that are exposed to Foot and Mouth and other animal diseases. The poor conditions of the communities in this area are conducive to the development of diseases such as cholera and H.I.V. Severe Storms Sundays River Valley is a coastal municipality and as such is vulnerable to all types of severe storms Tidal Surge Being a coastal municipality, Sundays River Valley is exposed to the effects of abnormal tidal surges. AVAILABLE RESOURCES Resources can be accessed from: Appointed Disaster Management Officials Municipalities (District and Local) National Departments Provincial Departments Organised Agriculture Organised Business EMERGENCY RESPONSE SERVICES Response teams can be dispatched from: Fire Brigade Services Stationed at Kirkwood but available for Paterson and Addo S.A.P.S. Stations in all three towns Traffic Department Stationed at Kirkwood but available to all 3 towns National Parks Addo Elephant Park Health Services:- Hospitals At Kirkwood only Clinics At all three towns Ambulance At Kirkwood only

77 PROPOSED LOCATION OF THE J.O.C. The proposed location of a Joint Operations Centre can be based at the following: Kirkwood Sundays River Valley Municipal Offices Addo Sundays River Valley Municipal Satellite Offices in Addo Paterson Sundays River Valley Municipal Satellite Offices in Paterson EMERGENCY EVACUATION CENTRES The generic evacuation centres are: Town Halls Community Halls (including Farmers halls) Churches Schools Sport Fields Hospitals IDENTIFIED VULNERABLE INFRASTRUCTURE Water reticulation and supply Electricity Supply Storm water drainage Sewerage Roads and bridges Communications IDENTIFIED COMMUNITIES AT RISK In this Municipality there is a clear lack of suitable infrastructure. In view of this the whole of the area surroundings, particularly around the village of Paterson is exposed to uncontrolled fires and severe wind storms. In addition the location and topographical profile of the the Addo National Park is also an area of concern. This is due to the fact that their resources seem to be limited and this will tend to result in effective measures being implemented.

78 DROUGHT FIRE FLOODS TORNADO EPIDEMIC STORM TIDAL SURGE HAZMAT AVIATION MARITIME RAILWAY DROUGHT FIRE STORMS TORNADO EPIDEMIC FLOODS TIDAL SURGE HAZMAT AVIATION MARITIME RAILWAY DROUGHT STORMS HAZMAT TORNADO EPIDEMIC FLOODS TIDAL SURGE FIRES AVIATION MARITIME RAILWAY DROUGHT STORMS TIDAL SURGE TORNADO EPIDEMIC FIRES HAZMAT FLOODS AVIATION MARITIME RAILWAY D SUMMARISED RISK MATRICES Information gathered during the assessment was analysed and summarised in order to determine a risk profile for each local municipality and ultimately the District. Each potential risk was evaluated in terms of the local municipality and a priority given based on information gathered during the risk assessment exercise. KOUGA LOCAL MUNICIPALITY NDLAMBE LOCAL MUNICIPALITY MAKANA LOCAL MUNICIPALITY SUNDAYS RIVER LOCAL MUNICIPALITY

79 DROUGHT FIRE FLOOD TORNADO EPIDEMIC STORM TIDAL SURGE HAZMAT AVIATION MARITIME RAILWAY DROUGHT FIRE FLOOD TORNADO EPIDEMIC STORM TIDAL SURGE HAZMAT AVIATION MARITIME RAILWAY DROUGHT FIRE FLOOD TORNADO EPIDEMIC STORM TIDAL SURGE HAZMAT AVIATION MARITIME RAILWAY BLUE CRANE MUNICIPALITY BAVIAANS LOCAL MUNICIPALITY IKWEZI LOCAL MUNICIPALITY

80 DROUGHT FIRE FLOOD TORNADO EPIDEMIC STORM TIDAL SURGE HAZMAT AAVIATIO N MARITIME RAILWAY DROUGHT FIRE FLOOD TORNADO EPIDEMIC STORM TIDAL SURGE HAZMAT AVIATION MARITIME RAILWAY DROUGHT FIRE FLOOD TORNADO EPIDEMIC SNOW TIDAL SURGE HAZMAT AVIATION MARITIME RAILWAY CAMDEBOO LOCAL MUNICIPALITY KOU KAMMA MUNICIPALITY The results of this rating exercise is summarised in the Risk Calculation Table. RISK CALCULATION TABLE KOUGA NDLAMBE MAKANA SUNDAYS RIVER BLUE CRANE BAVIAANS IKWEZI CAMDEBOO KOU KAMMA TOTAL DISTRICT RATING Based on the information contained in the table above the following rating scale has been applied to the tables reflected below. The scale ranges form a rating of 1 for high priority to 10 being the lowest priority. The Matrix for the Sarah Baartman District is a summary of the identified risk priorities for each of the other nine Municipalities as a whole.

81 DROUGHT FIRE FLOOD TORNADO EPIDEMIC STORM TIDAL SURGE HAZMAT AVIATION MARITIME RAILWAY SARAH BAARTMAN DISTRICT RISK IN RELATION TO MUNICIPALITY The figure above reflects the overall Risk Analysis Matrix for the Sarah Baartman Municipality. As is evident from the above figure the Sarah Baartman District Municipality needs to cater in its planning for the full ambit of potential disasters emanating from the abovementioned risk. This risk profile is a summary of the various types of risk as determined in each Local Municipality. The District Municipality would need to have developed plans for the mitigation of risk as well as contingency plans for handling of disasters of various sorts.

82 E TOP PRIORITY RISK ASSESSMENT SUMMARIES TOP PRIORITY RISK FOR THE SARAH BAARTMAN MUNICIPALITY AND EACH MUNICIPALITY The risk matrices for the Sarah Baartman District Municipality and the other nine Municipalities have been determined and extrapolated from these matrices are the determined potential risk priorities. A Risk Priority Rating has been determined for the District as well as for each of the nine Local Municiplalities. The top three risk priorities are determined for the District and each of the nine Municipalities: These assessments are reflected below: SARAH BAARTMAN DISTRICT MINICIPALITY FIRE FLOODS HAZMAT The assessments for the top three priorities for the Local Municipalities are as follows: KOUGA LOCAL MUNICIPALITY FLOODS FIRES HAZMAT NDLAMBE LOCAL MUNICIPALITY FLOODS HAZMAT FIRES

83 MAKANA LOCAL MUNICIPALITY FIRES FLOODS HAZMAT SUNDAYS RIVER LOCAL MINICIPALITY FIRES FLOODS HAZMAT BLUE CRANE LOCAL MUNICIPALITY FIRES HAZMAT STORMS BAVIAANS LOCAL MINICIPALITY FIRE DROUGHTS STORMS IKWEZI LOCAL MINICIPALITY STORMS TORNADOS FIRES

84 CAMDEBOO LOCAL MUNICIPALITY FIRES SNOW FLOODS KOU KAMMA LOCAL MUNICIPALITY FIRES HAZMAT FLOODS F IMPACT OF RELEVANT GLOBAL RISK CONDITIONS Climate Change The coastal environment is a unique and dynamic system where elements from land, sea, air and people converge. It encompasses a wide range of terrestrial and marine environments - from rivers, coastal forests, wetlands, coral reefs and sea grass beds to the open waters of estuaries, cities and farms. Broadly speaking, it is the portion of land influenced by being near the sea and the portion of the sea influenced by being near land. This area has remarkable ecological productivity and offers a diverse range of goods and services. As a result the coastal environment has been the centre of human activity for hundreds of years, with a marked impact on and degradation of the ecological functioning of the coastal system. As a consequence, developed coastal areas are increasingly susceptible to natural hazards. Despite this some coastal areas still offer development opportunities which may promote local and regional economic development. Given the value of the coast, pressure to develop is increasing and there is a need to improve management of the coastal environment and its resource. In recent years, in addition to the reliance on the natural resource base of the coastal system, coastal development is being driven by the appeal of living at the coast coupled with personal wealth, an increase in coastal holiday-homes and resorts, and demand for leisure and outdoor activities associated with the coast.

85 These can be related to economic conditions of increased consumer spending power, increased mobility of people and more available leisure time. This development brings about changes in land cover (vegetation and human-made features on the earth s surface) and land-use (human activities and impacts on land cover), in response to human needs and wants. Changes in land use result in significant economic and environmental impacts within the coastal system. Historically, within South Africa, coastal developments were concentrated in KwaZulu-Natal and the Western Cape. These areas have in recent years become intensively developed and the market has shifted to other favourable areas, notably the Eastern Cape. The Eastern Cape coast, though developed in and around the two primary economic nodes, East London and Port Elizabeth, has until recently remained relatively undeveloped. Development brings with it associated political and socio-economic pressures which need to be assessed and considered holistically in terms of management and planning for development within the coastal environment. With this in mind, this study aims to capture historical and current land cover for a section of the Eastern Cape coast and relate this to land-use activities. Secondly the study considers the factors that result in the observed land-use and land cover patterns Mapping historic and current land cover and land-use patterns This study uses GIS (Geographic Information Systems) as the primary tool for mapping historic and current land cover and land-use patterns within the study area. GIS is an essential tool in time series analysis, enabling the efficient capture, analysis and comparison of land-use and land cover at different time intervals. Land cover data was captured from aerial photographs at three dates: 1940, 1970 and 2004 based on availability of aerial photographs for the study area. The study considers coastal land cover and land-use change within the local municipalities of Ndlambe has identified distinct differences between the two municipalities in terms of land cover and land-use. These differences can largely be attributed to the political history of the area. The Ndlambe Local Municipality has always been part of the Republic of South Africa and as such was subject to different policies Coastal development pressure To date this study has shown that both municipalities have a high proportion of natural land cover. This status is changing as coastal development pressure increases. Development within the Ndlambe Municipality is being driven largely by economic activity and social desirability. Development within the Ndlambe Municipality is seen to be following two distinct development trends, namely an increase in game farming and an increase in urban type development. Stock farming is being replaced by game farming, largely due to economic factors. These include factors such as low cattle prices in comparison to income from game farming, the labour intensive factor of stock farming and more recently the effects of stock theft on stock farming. In terms of urban type developments, people s increasing need to be at the coast has created demand for coastal accommodation. This has resulted in an increase in coastal development and spending on development within this zone. Tidal Surges Tidal surges have been associated with the Eastern Cape for a very long time. For example the 68 high tide in PE which combined disastrously with huge rains.

86 In a world awash with uncertainty over climate change, UN s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) can be used as a yardstick. Adding one centimetre to the level of the ocean while continuing to build in flood-prone areas, such as the Baakens Valley in PE, is a melting pot for disaster. On Friday 29 August 2008, the above storm covered an area of 4.6 million sq kms In reality there has been a major flood in the Eastern Cape every 35 years during the last 100 years. With all the effects of the acceleration of climate change this figure can be adjusted to a major flood every 32 years. Consequently an ocean surge is going to re occur. For the SA Weather Service the above depicted storm was monstrously bloated and hideously malformed, the biggest he s seen in a decade of almost daily surfcasting. In the last eight years, these huge storms always occur between August 20th and September fifth during a two-week period straddling winter and spring. The area around Port Elizabeth has had five major storms in five years, and the one depicted above was the biggest stretching from Cape Aghullas to the ice shelf a distance of 3 600km. The South African Weather Service sees an increase in frequency and ferocity of our ocean storms, and urges people to take action now before a 10-foot wall of white water starts coming through your lounge. The effects of global warming, deforestation, carbon emissions, bio-fuels, the decimation of fish stocks and depletion of bio mass and diversity, the way we kill sharks upsetting the balance of life, how we cause whales to die, and plankton to freak out (plankton has a huge role to play in ocean weather) all contribute and all eventually merges into the creation of more regular disasters.