Climate change and health: WHO European Region perspective

Transcription

1 Climate change and health: WHO European Region perspective Vladimir KENDROVSKI, MD, MSc, PhD WHO Regional Office for Europe, European Centre for Environment and Health Bonn, Germany An Van Nieuwenhuyse, MD, PhD Head Unit Health & Environment Scientific Institute of Public Health Juliette Wytsmanstraat Brussels

2 The global environmental burden of diseases e/news/releases/2016/d eaths-attributable-tounhealthyenvironments/en/

3 Climate change affects health Watts, N. et al., Health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health. The Lancet, 6736(15), p.53.

4 Weather-and climate-related extreme events in 2017

5 Climate change is breaking records globally and in Europe Global temperature ( /16) 2016: C above pre-industrial level European land temperature ( ) Sources: HadCRUT4 (Met Office), NOAA Global Temp, NASA GISTEMP

6 Differences between wet and dry regions will further increase Precipitation (projected change for 2080s, RCP8.5) Source: EURO-CORDEX (Jacob et al., 2014)

7 Heatwaves are getting stronger Exceptionally warm days ( ) Frequency of extreme heat waves (two time horizons and two scenarios) Source: EURO-CORDEX (Jacob et al., 2014) Source: HadEX2 (Donat et al. 2013) Source: JRC (Russo et al. 2013)

8 Heavy precipitation events are getting stronger Heavy daily precipitation ( ) Heavy daily precipitation (projected change for 2080s, RCP 8.5) Source: Fischer & Knutti (2016) Source: EURO-CORDEX (Jacob et al., 2014)

9 European seas are rising, warming and acidifying; oxygen-depleted dead zones are expanding Relative sea level ( ) Sea surface temperature ( ) Source: PSMSL (2016) Sources: HadISST1, CMEMS ph Ocean dead zones (Baltic Sea, ) Ocean acidification ( ) Source: Carstensen et al. (2014) A decreasing ph value implies increasing acidity Source: Updated from Dore (2012)

10 Health impacts of the causes of climate change Industry 1 m deaths from occupational risks Buildings 4.3 m deaths from indoor air pollution Agriculture 2.8 m deaths from Overweight/obese Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions Transport 1.2 m deaths from road traffic crashes 3.2m from physical inactivity Electricity and heat 3.7m deaths from outdoor air pollution Circle size proportional to GHG emissions in 2010 (tonnes CO 2 equivalent). Changes proportional to projections of changes by All data from IPCC, 2014.

11 Main health-relevant climate-sensitive exposures in the WHO EURO region heat and cold; vector-borne diseases; floods; foodborne and water-borne infections; poor air quality; heavily human-mediated impacts (mental and occupational health)

12 High level of diversity

13 Extreme climate events are costly and life-threatening Impacts of extreme events in EEA member countries (climate-related and geophysical hazards; ) Fatalities Total economic losses EUR 520 billion (2015 prices) Insured losses EUR 155 billion (2015 prices) Source: Munich RE NatCatSERVICE

14 Number of deaths per million due to extreme weather events by European subareas ( ) Flood and wet mass movement (a) Cold event Heat wave Storm Wildfire Eastern Europe Northern Europe Southern Europe Western Europe Total (a) including landslides Note: Numbers are per people.

15 Flooding and health Flooding is the most common natural disaster in the European Region: between the years , floods killed more than 2000 people and affected 8.7 million in Europe. 15

16 Examples of vector-borne diseases in the WHO European Region Mosquito-borne Dengue fever Chikungunya Malaria West Nile fever (WNF) Zika? Sandfly-borne Leishmaniasis Tick-borne Lyme disease Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) Crimean Congo haemorrhagic fever Europeans on average fall sick from vector-borne diseases every year. Mosquito species, such as Aedes aegypti, are re-emerging, and Aedes albopictus is emerging.

17 Heatwave: August ,000 excess deaths in 12 European countries over three months Source: Robine JM, Cheung SL, Le Roy S, Van Oyen H, Herrmann FR (2007). Report on excess mortality in Europe during summer 2003 (EU Community Action Programme for Public Health). Brussels: Directorate General for Health and Consumer Protection, European Commission 17

18 No good news.. The number of warm days (those exceeding the 90 th percentile threshold of a baseline period) have almost doubled since 1960 across the European land area. Europe has experienced several extreme heatwaves since the year 2000 (2003, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2014 and 2015). Under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5), very extreme heat waves as strong as those or even stronger are projected to occur at least every three years in the second half of the 21 st century. Russo, S., Dosio, A., Graversen, R. G., Sillmann, J., Carrao, H., Dunbar, M. B., Singleton, A., Montagna, P., Barbola, P. and Vogt, J. V., 2014, 'Magnitude of extreme heat waves in present climate and their projection in a warming world', Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 119(22), 12,500 12,512

19 Projection of heat mortality in Europe in the 21 st century MOHC model (RCP8.5) MOHC model (RCP8.5) MOHC model (RCP4.5) MOHC model (RCP4.5) Historical: Source: Kendrovski V, Baccini M, Menne B, Wolf T, Sanchez G] [Increasing heat mortality among European Union citizens under global warming in 21 Century]. In: Abstracts of the 2016l Epidemiology (ISEE). Abstract [P3-041]. Research Triangle Park, NC: Environmental Health Perspectives; ttp://dx.doi.org/ /ehp.isee2016.

20 WHO, Health Impacts of Climate Change: Approximately 250,000 excess deaths/year by 2030s

21 The major increases in ill-health in the European Region will occur through Expected further impacts of extreme weather events on health Disruption and stress for health services Changing distributions of infectious diseases Changes in air quality, food and water quality and security Consequences for health of lost work capacity and reduced labor productivity

22

23 Our WHO mandate: 55 TH World Health Assembly: interagency cooperation on climate change and health; the 61st World Health Assembly Climate change and health resolution WHA61.19 in 2008; EB Workplans and ; the 2010 Parma Declaration on Environment and Health, and welcomed the European Regional Framework for Action; continuation with Ostrava Declaration (June, 2017) Health 2020: the European policy for health and wellbeing SDGs of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Climate Change at the World Health Assembly

24

25 Climate change and health in the European Ministerial Environment and Health Process 1989 Climate change recognized 1999 Early human health effects 2004 Extreme weather events and renewable energy 2010 Parma Commitmen t to Act Regional Framework for Action 2017 Ostrava Declaration June 2017

26 2015: steps forward for health and environment

27 Benefits in enhancing coherence between CCA and DRR Health CCA Focus on past trends and future projections and addressing uncertainty Origin and culture in scientific theory Policy makers in environment ministries and agencies Reducing vulnerability and increasing resilience of societies DRR Focus on present and addressing existing risks and all hazards Origin and culture in humanitarian assistance and civil protection Policy makers in civil protection ministries and agencies Benefits enhanced knowledge base more effective and efficient policies stronger collaboration more efficient use of resources better preparedness and response

28 The Paris agreement as a public health treaty Sets ambitious limits to warming Less than 2 o C, aim for 1.5 o C Obliges countries to make "Nationally Determined Contributions" to reduce carbon emissions and to increase resilience Commits to mobilizing US$100 billion/year in climate financing SDG 13 underlines that the task is being advanced under the UNFCCC in order to minimize the duplication of efforts and optimize finite resources.

29 The Paris agreement as a public health treaty

30

31 WHO supports European countries Elaboration and communication of scientific evidence, risks and how to reduce risks; Awareness raising and education; Building institutional and workforce capacity; A public health approach to adaptation and mitigation; Mainstreaming health in other policies

32 Tools & process for increasing health system resilience WHO guidance available for: Operational framework for building climate resilient health systems Conducting vulnerability and adaptation (V&A) assessments Developing early warning systems Estimating the costs of adaptation Conducting health impact assessments (HIA) Gender mainstreaming

33 Supporting tools developed by WHO Assessment tools Health impacts (hvia) Risk assessment Economic costs Specific risk tools Public health adaptation framework Policy impact assessment WHO works to: identify evidence based policy options to help prevent, prepare for and respond to the extreme weather events, and support its Member States in selecting and implementing the most suitable policies, measures and strategies.

34 Cities and Climate Change

35 WHO-Project for green spaces and health Health and well-being are an outcome, a determinant and an enabler of the Goals. Urban green spaces: a WHO brief for action

36