Preparing For and Responding to the Evolving Era of Climate Change

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1 Michigan Department of Health & Human Services Preparing For and Responding to the Evolving Era of Climate Change M i c h i g a n O c c u p a t i o n a l a n d E n v i r o n m e n t a l M e d i c a l A s s o c i a t i o n M e e t i n g E d e n V. W e l l s, M D, M P H, F A C P M P u t t i n g p e o p l e f i r s t, w i t h t h e g o a l o f h e l p i n g a l l M i c h i g a n d e r s l e a d h e a l t h i e r a n d m o r e p r o d u c t i v e l i v e s, n o m a t t e r t h e i r s t a g e i n l i f e.

2 The Physical Science Environmental Impacts

3 Global Warming 2/3 of solar energy reaching Earth heats the Earth's surface. The heat radiates to atmosphere, some is trapped by greenhouse gases, (e.g. CO2) In 50 years, atmospheric CO2 concentration increased by more than 30% More heat becomes trapped in atmosphere

4 Impact of Global Warming Heat-related illness and death Air pollution worsens Vector-borne disease Food and waterborne disease Hunger and malnutrition Increased wildfires Flooding-melting of ice caps Increased hurricane seasons

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6 US Environmental Impacts, EPA US- Growing season is projected to continue to lengthen Heavy downpours are increasing nationally Droughts in the Southwest and heat waves everywhere are projected to become more intense Hurricane-associated storm intensity and rainfall rates are projected to increase Trends in severe storms, including the intensity and frequency of tornadoes, hail, and damaging thunderstorm winds, are uncertain Sea level to rise another 1 to 4 feet by 2100 Arctic Ocean is expected to become essentially ice free in summer before mid-century

7 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change World Meteorological Organization and UN Environment Program First Assessment Report Supplement Second Assessment Report-1995 Third Assessment Report Fourth Assessment Report-2007 Fifth Assessment Report- 2014

8 Impacts of Climate Change The Health Effects

9 WHO: Global Warming To Spread More Disease Group Says Malaria, Floods, Hunger To Go Up With Rising Temperatures, Changing Rainfall MANILA, Philippines, April 7, 2008 Millions of people could face poverty, disease and hunger as a result of rising temperatures and changing rainfall expected to hit poor countries Malaria, diarrhea, malnutrition and floods cause an estimated 150,000 deaths annually, Climate-sensitive diseases such as dengue and cholera, currently present in South America and Angola, because of flooding Movement of populations

10 WHO:

11 IPCC Health Impacts

12 IPCC Vector-Borne Diseases

13 IPCC Job Exertion

14 Climate Change Monitoring and Projecting the Impacts

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16 Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC- Warming of the climate is unequivocal Increases in global average air and ocean temperatures Widespread melting of snow and ice Rising global average sea level 2007 IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A.(eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 104 ppfig 1.1

17 2008: US EPA Regional Predictions In the Midwest and Great Lakes: Lowered lake and river levels- decrease recreation and shipping Warming water temperatures- decrease in fish stocks Decrease in water quality lead to habitat loss and eutrophication Increased agricultural productivity in many regions results from increased carbon dioxide, warmth Higher summer heat and increase in heat-related morbidity and mortality Reduced winter cold stress with associated decrease in coldrelated mortality

18 2005: Benefits of Global Warming a warming climate is likely to bring some localized benefits: decreased winter deaths in temperate climates increases in food production in some, particularly high latitude, regions Public health services and high living standards would protect some populations from specific impacts Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Image: NOAA Fig 1.2 Harvard Climate Change Future Report,

19 IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Finalized November 2014

20 IPCC 2014-Human Security

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22 Impacts Due to Flooding

23 Impacts Due to Sea Level Rise

24 Risks for Various Impacts

25 Climate Change Adapting and Developing Resiliency

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27 Governmental Action WHO IPCC US Climate Change Science Program US EPA-Climate Change MI: CDC-increased funding? MI: Stimulus funds? Observed sea ice changes. This animation Shows sea ice coverage shrinking from 1979 to 2005, by roughly half. Source: NASA #arctic

28 Resiliency Climate-resilient pathways strategies, choices, and actions to reduce climate change and impacts ensure that effective risk management and adaptation can be implemented and sustained. Integration of adaptation and mitigation responses

29 EPA Definitions- Climate Change Adaptation Adjustment or preparation of natural or human systems to a new or changing environment which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities

30 EPA Definitions- Climate Change Resiliency A capability to anticipate, prepare for, respond to, and recover from significant multi-hazard threats with minimum damage to social well-being, the economy, and the environment.

31 EPA Definitions- Climate Change Mitigation A human intervention to reduce the human impact on the climate system; it includes strategies to reduce greenhouse gas sources and emissions and enhancing greenhouse gas sinks

32 Community Resilience 32

33 Health Adaptation

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35 Climate Change Planning and Response Michigan

36 Climate-Ready States and Cities Initiative (CRSCI) CDC helping state and city health departments address and prepare for health effects related to climate change Approaches same method preparing for bioterrorism and pandemic influenza. CRSCI-16 states and 2 cities- anticipate health effects by applying climate science, predicting health impacts, and preparing flexible programs. Assist states and cities partner with local and national climate scientists

37 CRSCI- Michigan

38 Michigan 2010 MDHHS established the Michigan Climate & Health Adaptation Program (MICHAP) MICHAP was charged with protecting the health of Michigan s citizens from threats related to climate change Support and guidance by CDC CRSCI

39 Building Resilience in Public Health Building Resilience Against Climate Effects (BRACE) in State Health Departments grant States must work with local and community partners to prepare for potential impacts on health outcomes

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41 Projected Climate Change Impacts- MI

42 Linking Impact to Effects

43 2015 MDHHS Report-Linking Impact to Outcomes

44 MI-Extreme Heat

45 MI Health Outcomes

46 MI- Increased Extreme Weather Events (EWE s)

47 Monitoring Health Outcomes from Climate Change-MI Michigan Disease Surveillance System Michigan Syndromic Surveillance System Michigan Inpatient Data Base Michigan Resident Death Files Michigan Behavioral Risk Factor Survey

48 MI Exposure Surveillance Air quality data CO, Lead, So2, No2, Ozone, PM10, PM2.5 Miair-an internet tool that provides real-time air quality information Land surface characteristics Mosquito and tick data Utility power outages Water quality surveillance

49 Air Quality September 5,

50 Public Health/Healthcare All Hazards Plans- extreme weather events Enhanced public health and clinical coordination of surveillance/knowledge Emerging infectious disease threats Observed changes at the animal/human interface Programmatic reviews to include potential climate change impacts Impact on ER visits, out-patient care, occupational health, hospitalization rates Increase participation with multi-agency collaborative projects/planning

51 QUESTIONS? photos/polar-bear-in-arctic

52 Resource and Acknowledgements Wilson, M.L. Ecology and infectious disease. In: Ecosystem change and public health: a global perspective, Aron J.L. & Patz, J.A. eds. Baltimore, USA, John Hopkins University Press, pp , IPCC Dr. Lorraine Cameron, MDHHS, and Team