Protecting health from Climate Change: The Global Response

Transcription

1 Protecting health from Climate Change: The Global Response Public Health and Environment 1

2 Why do we need a global health response? 2

3 Climate change affects our largest global health problems - Each year: - Undernutrition kills 3.5 million - Diarrhoea kills 2.2 million US CDC - Malaria kills 900, Extreme weather events kill 60,000 These, and others, are highly sensitive to temperature and precipitation. 3

4 Climate Change and Malaria Potential transmission in Zimbabwe Baseline Climate suitability: red = high; blue/green = low Harare Low probability Medium probability Highlands High probability Bulawayo 4

5 Climate Change and Malaria Potential transmission in Zimbabwe Baseline Climate suitability: red = high; blue/green = low Harare Bulawayo 5

6 Climate Change and Malaria Potential transmission in Zimbabwe Baseline Climate suitability: red = high; blue/green = low Harare Bulawayo 6

7 Those most vulnerable did not cause the problem Cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases, to 200 WHO estimates of per capita mortality from climate change, 2000 ojections from Patz at al 2007; WHO 2008 O Comparative Risk Assessment estimated that by 2000, ate change that had occurred since the 1970s was causing r 150,000 7 additional Climate Change deaths and per Health: year (WHO, The Global 2002, Response McMichael et

8 Loading burdens on the backs of the poor is unfair With impoverished populations in the developing world the first and hardest hit, climate change is very likely to increase the number of preventable deaths. The gaps in health outcomes we are trying so hard to address right now may grow even greater. This is unacceptable. Climate change and health: preparing for unprecedented challenges. WHO Director General Margaret Chan. December,

9 Climate change is rising on the global health agenda In last two years:! 193 countries endorse World Health Assembly resolution in 2008, and WHO workplan in 2009! Statements by the major global health associations and Journals: World Medical Association, International Council of Nurses, Lancet etc.!new initiatives on health cobenefits of mitigation, piloting adaptation, applied research, capacity building, awareness raising 9

10 Climate change and health What can health bring to the climate change table? 10

11 State of global climate change negotiations! Science broadly settled, all nations agree that we need to respond! BUT: The benefits of reducing climate change are dispersed globally, and accrue over many decades!reluctance to take action and pay the costs, if others do not do their share UN summit on Climate Change, September

12 What does health bring? (1) A large, active, well-respected, global community The health profession is:! Big: Over 59 million health workers globally.! Uniquely well-respected: Present in almost every community in the world, united by a set of common values. Doctor in Democratic Republic of Congo. WHO 2009! An important GHG emitter: 8% of US emissions are from healthcare 12

13 What does health bring? (2) A range of effective "adaptation" measures Improved surveillance and response: E.g. heatwave warnings, compliance with International Health Regulations to prevent internationa spread of disease Strengthened action on diseases of poverty: Including wider and more flexible coverage with vector control and vaccination programmes WHO/SEARO 2008 Better management of environmental health determinants : e.g. Provision of safe water and sanitation, control of air pollution -Already high benefit/cost ratios- likely higher under climate change 13

14 What does health bring? (3) A positive, immediate and local argument for cutting greenhouse gas emission "Health benefits from reduced air pollution as a result of actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions may offset a substantial fraction of mitigation costs" IPCC,

15 2009 International project on health effects of climate mitigation 1990 emissions 2030 ~50% cut % cut Evaluated health effects in 2030 of GHG reductions consistent with 80% reduction in industrialised countries (50% global reduction) by 2050 Sectors examined: household energy, electricity production, transport, food and agriculture Case studies to illustrate health effects in 2010 population under different future scenarios in high and low income settings Slide adapted from Andy Hain 15

16 Best Studied Example: Electricity Generation and Air Pollution 2030 business as usual (BAU) 2030 with global mitigation target (carbon trading) Vs More renewables More nuclear Some coal with carbon capture and storage Less coal otherwise Comparison calculated: Deaths due to particulate air pollution from electricity generation, and costs, in EU, India and China. Slide adapted from Andy Hain 16

17 Global mitigation targets and full emissions trading could significantly reduce CO 2 from electricity in 2030 Emissions in millions of tonnes Slide adapted from Andy Hain 17

18 Expected major health benefits of reduced air pollution, especially in rapidly developing economies Premature Deaths Avoided in 2030 Slide adapted from Andy Hain 18

19 Health benefits of greener electricity should partly offset costs: completely in some developing countries Costs of Mitigation US$/Tonne CO2 Slide adapted from Andy Hain 19

20 Other interventions could bring even larger benefits Benefits of 150 million more improved stoves in India! Reductions in black carbon, methane, ozone precursors could amount to the equivalent of billion tonnes of CO 2 eq over the decade! Cost <$50 per household every 5 years Slide adapted from Kirk Smith, Andy Hain 20

21 Expected health benefits of improved stoves in India are equivalent to halving the national cancer burden Deaths from ALRI Deaths from COPD Deaths from IHD Avoided in 2020 (%) 30.2% 28.2% 5.8% Total avoided , million 560,000 ALRI=acute lower respiratory infections. COPD=chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. IHD=ischaemic heart disease. Slide adapted from Andy Hain 21

22 Benefits accrue in developed countries as well: Lower carbon transport in London Some paths to GHG reduction are much healthier than others Slide adapted from Andy Hain 22

23 More sustainable transport would address some of our fastest growing disease burdens Change in disease burden Change in premature deaths Ischaemic heart disease 10-19% Cerebrovascular disease 10-18% Dementia 7-8% Breast cancer 12-13% Road traffic crashes 19-39% Slide adapted from Andy Hain 23

24 Conclusions: How can health help?! Health provides an accessible and resonant argument for fair and effective global climate change policy! The health community is a fresh, engaged, and trusted voice now advocating for action on climate change! Health has a portfolio of cost-effective "win-win" adaptation interventions (but needs more support)! Health cobenefits represent an immediate, socially and politically attractive pay-off from mitigation policies (but only if we prioritize the most health-promoting ones) 24

25 More information: World Health Organization Public Health and Environment Global Environmental Change Climate Change 25