Climate Change Policiesand Prospects for Carbon Markets in China

Transcription

1 Climate Change Policiesand Prospects for Carbon Markets in China Wen WANG Friday Lunch Meeting 1 October 26, 2012

2 Outline Chinese GHG Emissions Landscape Emissions evolution Emission drivers Climate Policies in China Brief history International commitment National targets and actions Carbon Market Insight in China Market design Status of carbon market development Challenges 2 Conclusion

3 Chinese GHG emissions landscape Emissions evolution: largest annual CO 2 and GHG emitter now 3

4 Drivers of emissions growth in China The Kaya equation (1990) 4

5 Understand CO2 emissions in China Per capita CO2 emissions in China reach EU levels in 2011, however with different development stages 20 Per capita emissions (tco2) China South Africa Russian Federation EU France US Japan 2 0 Brazil India Per capita income ($) 5 Figure: per capita CO2 emissions and GDP in 2011 Data source: JRC, PBLand the World Bank

6 Policy focus to control GHG emissions 6 To control CO2 emissions growth while increasing living standards, China need to step up its efforts to reduce the energy intensityof the economy and pursue a cleaner energy mix.

7 Brief history of climate policies in China Ratified the UNFCCC in 1992 as a non-annex I country Ratified the Kyoto Protocol on August 30, 2002, as a non-annex B country Several official climate documents released First National Assessment Report on Climate Change in 2006 and second in 2011 National Climate Change Programme (NCCP) in 2007 China s Policies and Actions for Addressing Climate Change (CPAACC) 2008, 2009 and 2010 Reiteration on the principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities Developed countries take the lead in combating climate change Priority of economic development in developing countries (no reduction obligations) and address climate change with financial resources from developed countries Milestone: voluntary commitment under the Copenhagen Accord Reduce its carbonintensity by 40-45% in 2020 from 2005 levels Increase share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 15% in 2020 Increase forest coverage by 40 Mhaand forest stock volume by 1.3 Blm3 by 2020from 2005 Further step: willingnessto be engaged in a post-2020 legally binding framework under certain conditions, voiced at COP 17 in Durban 7

8 National climate targets and policies Policies and targets for energy intensity reduce, forest coverage increase and new energy development dated back to 1980s New compulsory targets in the 12th Five-Year Plan (FYP for ): reducing carbon intensity ( 17% in 5 years)and increasing forest stock volume Caps on total energy and electricity consumption are under discussion Rely on administrative tools to ensure target achievements: decentralization of carbon & energy intensity targets to provinces and enterprises Policy pillars Adjust industrial structure: e.g. closure of inefficient plants Energy conservationand efficiency improvement: e.g. Top-10,000 Energy Consuming Enterprises Programme Cleaner energy mix: e.g. feed-in tariffs for wind power Increase forest carbon sinks: afforestation programs 8

9 Administrative measures: any problem? Surely, great achievements Energy use per GDP in 2000 was only 1/3 of that in 1980 mainly driven by technological change Energy intensity rose between due to intensified industrialization At the end of 2010, China achieved a 19.06% reduction in energy intensity against the 2005 level, missing the 20% target defined in its 11th FYP. However, high reliance on administrative measures raised problems Command-and-control measures being used to their extremes: irrational blackouts and enforced power cuts for industry, residential buildings, and even hospitals in 2010 Low-hanging fruits picked, marginal abatement cost gets higher Economic stimulus package to support energy intensive industries Transition to a low carbon economy: call for alternative(market) mechanism! 9

10 Energy intensity evolution in China 10

11 Carbon Market Development Roadmap in China Policy premises Market type and features Kyoto Protocol and domestic CDM administrati ve measures CDM projects National VER Regulation VER trading Notice oncarrying out the Work of Pilot Carbon Emission Trading and relative regulations Pilot trading: learning phase ( ) Pilot trading: improved phase ( ) National ETS (after 2016 or 2020?) ( ) ( ) Stages of carbon finance markets Market emergence Market development and improvement 11

12 Carbon Market Development in China 2013 Voluntary trading 2013(2014)-2015(2016) Pilot carbon trading 2016(or 2020?) National ETS scheme National VER Regulation released in June Chinese gov. acting as the CDM EB To start in 5 municipalities and 2 provinces with great flexibility in ETS design: sectors and entities to be covered, total cap and allowance allocation methods, MRV procedure, registry, trading platform -Climate change legislation -Construction of national registry(for offset) -Formulation of emissions accounting guidelines for 6 key sectors - Other capacity building CCER as offset credits in ETSs (A place for agriculture?) 12

13 Approved pilot carbon trading regions in China

14 Features of the seven pilot regions High GDP/ capita and low energy intensity (Beijing, Shenzhen and Guangdong) High GDP/capita and middle level of energy intensity (Tianjin and Shanghai) Less wealthy but are more energy-intensive economies (Hubei and Chongqing) Province/ GDP 2010 National GDP share GDP per capita 2010 Energy intensity in Secondary 2010(based on 2005 sector's share of constant prices) economy City (Bln yuan) (%) (1000 yuan) (tce/mlnyuan) (%, 2010) Beijing % Tianjin % Shanghai % Hubei % Guangdong % Chongqing % Shenzhen % PRC %

15 Share of CO 2 emissions by sectors in pilot regions Proportions of power generation, cement and steel manufacturing in regional carbon inventories are varying 15 Note: * Shaded areas represent the share of the power, steel, cement sectors in each region. ** Some data are from McKinsey 2009 report. Source: Point Carbon- Carbon Market Monitor

16 Progress in domestic market establishment Provin ce/city Sectors likely to be covered Beijing power, heating, manufacturing and public buildings Number of emitters to be covered About companies emitting on average above 10k t CO2per year from 2009 to 2011 Status of development(as of Sep.2012) Release of design draft in March 2012, Tianjin 5 key industrial sectors Shangh17 sectors including electricity ai generation, iron and steel, petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals. Possibly airlines, as well as companies that own harbours, airports and hotels. Hubei 10 sectors including power stations and producers of iron, steel, cement, chemicals, cars, metals, glass and paper Guang dong Chong qing 9 sectors: power, iron and steel, ceramics, petrochemicals, textiles, nonferrous metals, plastic and paper Electrolytic aluminum, ferroalloys, calcium carbide, cement, caustic soda, and iron and steel 120 companies with more than 10ktce annual energy consumption. 200 companies that emit a total of 110 million tonnes of CO2 annually More than 100 most carbon intensive companies covering 35% of the province s CO2 emissions 827 facilities and companies with 20k t CO2 annual emission covering 42 percent of Guangdong s CO2 emissions some entreprises falling under the 10k energy consuming program within the Chongqing border Shenzh26 sectors including building Overall cap set at 100 million tons to cover800 en entitiesas emissions source are diverse in Shenzhen Pilot design draft submitted to NDRC Release of design draft in August 2012 To finalize the rules and complete work collecting data from emitters in 2012 Release of design draft in September 11th 2012 The implementation plan was said to have been completed to submit to NDRC Pilot implementation plan released in September. 16

17 Key differences with the EU ETS On legal entity level, instead of installation level in the EUETS Intention to cover buildings under ETS Intention to introduce price floor and price ceiling SPOT market only, no financial derivatives at the beginning Set aside an amount of permits (15%)in the hands of government to regulate the market Discussion on third party verification: government may pay the verification fee to avoid conflict of interest 17

18 Challenges in domestic market establishment Poor fundamentals of market economy in China: Heavy government intervention and importance state-owned enterprises Failure with SO2 emission trading Regulated electricity price in China Electricity supply security and price stability remain top concerns Monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) system to be improved Poor data statistical system and data accuracy concerns Coordination among different institutions at national and local level Social price stabilization and industry benefits dwarf emission trading issue Inclusion of State-owned enterprises regulated by the Central Government Conversion of intensity target to absolute cap To achieve both equity and efficiency in cap determination and allowance allocation 18 Registry functionality to be harmonized

19 Conclusion Chinese GHG Emissions will continue to grow with economic development requirements Incorporated climate targets into FYP on intensity basis Test market instruments to complement administrative measures, starting from pilot trading Notwithstanding significant progress, various obstacles are likely to delay the launch of functioning pilot regional ETSs and a national ETS 19

20 Thanks for your attention! Wen WANG More information: Overview of climate change policies and prospects for carbon markets in China'', Information et Débats n 18,