A different way to look at the carbon emission in China

Transcription

1 A different way to look at the carbon emission in China 刘竹 Zhu Liu Harvard Kennedy School Sustainability Science Program and Energy Technology Innovation Policy Feb 3 rd 2014

2 Summary 1. Background of China s carbon emissions 2. China s current emission mitigation policy 3. A new way to look at China s carbon emission from spatial and sectoral perspectives 4. Policy implications

3 1. Background China: World largest developing country with 1.4billion population No.1 primary energy consumer and carbon emitter Half of world steel, cement, coke and glass production (USGS, 2013; Worldbank,2013)

4 1. Background China s carbon emission: Fast growth with huge amount Source: CDIAC Data; Le Quéré et al 2013; Global Carbon Project 2013

5 1. Background Domestic energy and resource crisis Carbon dioxide World 2011 China billion tonnes 34.7 billion tonnes Nonferrous metal ores Known reserve Total billion tonnes 9.6 billion tonnes Ferrous World 2011 metal ores China billion tonnes 2.5 billion tonnes Ferrous metal ores Know reserve Total Known reserve Freshwater Total billion tonnes 18.8 billion tonnes 2.3 trillion tonnes 5.9 trillion tonnes Energy World 2011 China exajoule exajoule Energy Known reserve Total zettajoule 0.7 zettajoule Comparisons between China s future environmental pressure and current world status Comparisons between China s future total environmental pressure with its 2011 known reserves Sai Liang, Zhu Liu, et al, Environmental science & technology, 2014, 48 (2),

6 9, Background China s carbon emission trajectory 8,000 7,000 6,000 Rural Residential Consumption Urban Residential Consumption Others Energy Consumption 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Comerical Industry Transportation Construction Heating Supply Electricity Total Industry US carbon emission Agriculture Unit: Mt CO 2 Zhu Liu, et al. Energy. 2012; 45 (1):

7 1. Background IPAT equation Impact (I)= Population(P)*Affluence (A)*Technology(T) CO2(Impact, I)= Population(P)*GDP per capita(a)*co 2 per unit GDP(T) Emission decomposition in CO 2 emission Popolation growth (P) Welfare improvement (GDP/p) Unit: million tons of CO Calculated by author Technology (CO2/GDP)

8 1. Background Energy Intensity - Energy Consumption per Dollar of GDP (Btu per Year 2005 U.S. Dollars). United Arab Emirates EIA,2013. Japan India China United States Russia United Kingdom Germany France Brazil Canada 0 20,000 40,000

9 2. China s current low-carbon strategy China s energy intensity and the energy intensity targets in Five-year plan Ye Qi, et al, Nature Geoscience, 2013, 6,

10 2. China s current low-carbon strategy China planed to reduce the carbon intensity by 45% during , with sub target of 20% in and 17% in Energy intensity targets in Orange: 22% reduction Blue: 20% reduction Green:17% reduction Brown: 15% reduction

11 2. China s current low-carbon strategy Shutdown: : production capacity of 100 Mt of iron, 55 Mt of steel, 250 Mt of cement and 50 Mt of coal-burning power generation has been closed (planned): production capacity of 48 Mt of iron, 48 Mt of steel, 370 Mt of cement and 42 Mt of coal-burning power generation Close the small one Build the big one Small fire power plant (less than 50, 000kw) closed in Anhui New power plant in Shandong 11

12 2. China s current low-carbon strategy Mt CO 2 Equivalent emission reduction(comparing with BAU) Total CO 2 reduction of 39 industrialized countries (Annex B countries of the Kyoto Protocol) in : 80 million tones of CO Sai Liang, Zhu Liu et al. Bioresource Technology, 2013, 131,

13 Challenges No control on total emission increase Unaffordable environmental and health impact No potential for the further improvement of efficiency by current measures Small fire power plant (less than 50, 000kw) closed in Anhui Small fire power plant (less than 50, 000kw) closed in Anhui

14 per capita emission Source: CDIAC Data; Le Quéré et al. 2012; Global Carbon Project 2012

15 Regional CO 2 emissions The columns compares the CO 2 emission intensity across provinces (in 2009 price, unit: ton/10,000 Yuan) in The 15 map illustrates CO 2 emission per capita (unit: ton/ per cap) among provinces in 2009.

16 A footprint perspective Carbon footprint: a supply chain perspective Production Products and services Direct Emission Indirect Emission Footprint

17 3. China s carbon footprint: Methodology Methodology: Carbon footprint calculation by using Input-output model E=FX=Fy+FAy+FA 2 y+fa 3 y+fa 4 y = F (I-A) -1 Y Total emission Direct Emission 3 th tier supply chain 2 th tier supply chain 1 th tier supply chain Total indirect emission Total footprint 17

18 3. China s carbon footprint: spatial perspective Carbon footprint by cross-boundary power generation Emission by purchased electricity Beijing Shanghai Unit:1,000,000 tons of CO 2 Z. Liu, et al, Energy, 37, (2012) 18

19 3. China s carbon footprint: spatial perspective Cross-boundary emission caused by purchased electricity Thermal Power Agriculture Construction Commercial Industry Rural Residential Consumption Cross Boundary Electricity Other Consumption Transportation Urban Residential Consumption Industry Z. Liu, et al, Energy, 37, (2012) 19

20 3. China s carbon footprint: spatial perspective K. Feng, et al. PNAS,2013,110(28)

21 Interregional emission flows K. Feng, et al. PNAS,2013,110(28)

22 3. China s carbon footprint: spatial perspective Values for EU27 is treated as one region. Units: TgC=PgC/1000 Source: Peters et al, Biogeosciences, 9, ,

23 3. China s carbon footprint: spatial perspective International outsourcing air pollutions Jintai Lin, et al, PNAS, doi: /pnas

24 3. China s carbon footprint: spatial perspective International outsourcing air pollutions Jintai Lin, et al, PNAS, doi: /pnas

25 3. China s carbon footprint: spatial perspective Domestic outsourcing air pollutions Source: research in preparation 25

26 3. China s carbon footprint: sectoral perspective 1 Agriculture 2 Coal Mining 3 Petroleum Extraction 4 Ferrous Metals Mining 5 Other Metals Mining 6 Food Processing 7 Textile 8 Garments 9 Timber Processing 10 Papermaking 11 Petroleum Process 12 Chemical Industry 13 Nonmetal Production 14 Smelting and Pressing 15 Metal Products 16 Equipment Production 17 Transportation Equipment production 18 Electric Production 19 Telecommunications Production 20 Instruments Production 21 Other Industrial Activities 22 Waste production 23 Electricity Power/Heating Supply 24 Gas-fire Supply 25 Hot Water Supply 26 Construction 27 Transportation Services 28 Commercial Industry 29 Other Service Activities Direct Energy Use Indirect Energy Use Unit: Million tons of SCE ( standard coal equivalent) Zhu Liu, et al, Energy Policy, 2012; 49(0):

27 3. China s carbon footprint: sectoral perspective Indirect energy use (supply chain energy use) accounts for 80.6% of China s total energy footprint in % 19.40% Indirect Energy Use Direct Energy Use Zhu Liu, et al, Energy Policy, 2012; 49(0):

28 3. China s carbon footprint: sectoral perspective 1 Agriculture 2 Coal Mining 3 Petroleum Extraction Ferrous Metals Mining 5 Other Metals Mining 6 Food Processing 7 Textile Garments 9 Timber Processing 10 Papermaking 11 Petroleum Process Chemical Industry 13 Nonmetal Production 14 Smelting and Pressing 15 Metal Products 16 Equipment Production Transportation Equipment production 18 Electric Production 19 Telecommunications Production 20 Instruments Production Other Industrial Activities 22 Waste production 23 Electricity Power/Heating Supply 24 Gas-fire Supply 0 25 Hot Water Supply 26 Construction 27 Transportation Services 28 Commercial Industry 29 Other Service Activities Nonmetal products Mt C Metal smelting and pressing Power supply Transportation Emission embodied in supply chain of Construction sector Zhu Liu, et al, Energy Policy, 2012; 49(0):

29 3. China s carbon footprint: technology perspective IPAT for the footprint: A new IPAT equation? Final demand structure Emission Production Structure Population Emission/Energy Emission Population GDP/Population Energy/GDP Emission/Energy Emission/GDP Raupach M R et al. PNAS 2007;104: Energy/GDP Minx Jan, et al, Environ. Sci. Technol., 2011, 45 (21),

30 3. China s carbon footprint: final demand perspective Per capita carbon footprint Richest urban Chinese Poorest rural Chinese Rural population divided by 5 income groups (each for 20% rural population Urban consumption divided by 8 income groups (each account for 12.5% urban population) China World average India Brazil UK Japan Germany USA Source: research in preparation

31 4. China s low-carbon road C C C C Source: Peters et al. 2012a; CDIAC Data; Global Carbon Project 2013

32 4. China s low-carbon road Source: research in preparation

33 4. China s low-carbon road BAU scenario Low-carbon scenario Total reduction needs Mitigation Wedges Technology Market Policy Final demand Innovation? Source: research in preparation 33

34 1. Move away from coal and boost recycling and renewables. 2. Improving the emissions-mitigation indicators 3. Balancing regional energy supply and demand. 4. Enhancing market measures 5. Co-reduction of air pollutants and CO 2 emissions 6. Greening the consumption Zhu Liu, et al, Nature, 2013, 500,

35 Thanks! 35