Katharine Jacobs. Office of Science and Technology Policy.

Transcription

1 Building a Foundation for Adaptation Through the National Climate Assessment MSU Environmental Science & Policy Program Distinguished Lecture Series November 4, 2011 Katharine Jacobs Office of Science and Technology Policy

2 Building a Foundation for Adaptation through the National Climate Assessment The New USGCRP The New National Climate Assessment Lessons learned from previous lives Lessons from the NRC Building a foundation for adaptation 2

3 US Global Change Research Program GCRA Mandate: To provide for development and coordination of a comprehensive and integrated United States Research Program which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change. 3

4 The New US Global Change Research Program Vision A nation, globally engaged and guided by science, meeting the challenges of climate and global change. Mission To build a knowledge base that informs human response to climate and global change through coordinated and integrated federal programs and research, education, communication, and decision support. 4

5 US Global Change Research Program Strategic Plan ( ) Draft strategic plan currently open for public comments Comment period ends November 29, 2011 More information at gov Goals Advance Science Inform Decisions Sustained Assessments Communicate and Educate 5

6 National Climate Assessment: GCRA (1990), Section 106 not less frequently than every 4 years, the Council shall prepare an assessment which integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the Program and discusses the scientific uncertainties associated with such findings; analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and analyzes current trends in global change, both humaninduced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years. 6

7 Previous National Climate Assessments Climate Change Impacts on the United States (2000) Climate Change Impacts in the United States (2009) Target date for next NCA:

8 The New National Climate Assessment Goal Enhance the ability of the United States to anticipate, mitigate, and adapt to changes in the global environment. Vision Advance an inclusive, broad-based, and sustained process for assessing and communicating scientific knowledge of the impacts, risks, and vulnerabilities associated with a changing global climate in support of decision-making across the United States. 8

9 What is New About the 2013 National Climate Assessment (NCA) Sustainable process with multiple products over time New topics, cross-sectoral studies Consistent national matrix of indicators Central coordination, multiple partners Regional and sectoral networks building assessment capacity Recognizes international context Engagement and communications focus Web-based data and tools for decision support Process workshops to establish methodologies 9

10 The NCA Process Regional and sectoral assessments and stakeholder engagement Full draft of report available for public and expert review. Initiate topical and assessment process reports that will be completed at a defined date post Full assessment reports Sectors Regions Cross-cutting topics 10

11 Further regional updates as needed 2015 Further biogeographical cross-cuts (e.g Arctic, High Altitude) Further cross-sectoral topics Regional update, CMIP5 Sustained Assessment Process Watersheds, (Mississippi, Colorado, Columbia, Great Lakes) Time Land use/land cover Biogeochemical cycles Rural communities, agriculture and development, Deliver to the Academy for review ~3x/yr? Mitigation and Adaptation Indicators International Climate Change Science 8 regions 2 Cross regions (oceans/marine resources, Coastal zone) Sectors 3 Cross-sectors (water/energy/land, urban/infrastructure, vulnerability, tribal/indigenous land and resources) Mitigation/Adaptation Agenda for CC science Sustained process + vignettes of items that will be covered in more detail in 2014

12 Outline for 2013 Report The scientific basis for climate change Sectors and sectoral cross-cuts Regions and biogeographical cross-cuts Mitigation and adaptation Agenda for climate change science The NCA long-term process 12

13 Sectors Water resources Energy supply and use Transportation Agriculture Forestry Ecosystems and biodiversity Human health 13

14 Sectoral Cross-Cuts Water, energy, and land use Urban/infrastructure/vulnerability Impacts of climate change on tribal, indigenous, and native lands and resources Land use and land cover change Rural communities, agriculture, and development Impacts on biogeochemical cycles 14

15 Regions Northeast Southeast and Caribbean Midwest Great Plains Northwest Southwest Alaska and Arctic Hawaii and Pacific Islands + Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, American Samoa and other minor outlying islands + Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands 15

16 Biogeographical Cross-Cuts Oceans and marine resources Coastal zone, development, and ecosystems, with case studies including SF Bay Delta Chesapeake Gulf Coast Watersheds, with case studies including Great Lakes Colorado River Columbia River 16

17 Process Workshops 1. Strategic Planning 2. Midwest Regional Workshops 3. Outline and Work plan 4. International Context 5. Communications 6. Knowledge Management 7. Regional and Sectoral Approach 8. Ecological Indicators 9. Scenarios 10. Modeling 11. Vulnerability Assessment 12. Valuation 13. Physical Indicators 14. Societal Indicators 17

18 Assessment Structure CENRS/OSTP Network of Partners and Stakeholders Regional Networks Professional Societies Citizen Groups NGOs US Global Change Research Program (Federal) USGCRP Principals Interagency National Climate Assessment (INCA) Task Force Assessment Staff Technical Support and Coordination units (e.g. NCDC) National Climate Assessment Development and Advisory Committee (NCADAC) a.k.a. Federal Advisory Committee NCADAC Teams Regions (SW, NE, etc.) Sectors (water, energy, etc.) Data Management Science Scenarios Models Indicators Etc. 18

19 NCAnet: Partners in Assessment A network of organizations that extend the NCA process and products to a broader audience through their stakeholders and members Building long-term capacity to conduct and use assessments Cultivating partnerships with organizations that will participate in the sustained assessment process 19

20 Assessment Team Structure NCADAC Federal Advisory Committee (appointed by Secretary of Commerce) Executive Secretariat (appointed by Under Sec. of Commerce) Working Groups Chapter Author Teams Regional Teams Sectoral Teams Other Teams 20

21 Information Flow NCADAC Author Teams Chapters for 2013 Report Technical Input Teams (NCADAC, Agency-Led, External / RFI) 2009 GCCI Report SAPs Existing Government Reports Peer Reviewed Literature Grey Literature 21

22 NCADAC Working Groups 1. Scenarios and Regional Summaries 2. Request for Information 3. Peer Review, Information Standards, and Access 4. Engagement, Communication, and Evaluation 5. Regional Coordination 6. Sectoral Coordination 7. Science of Climate Change 8. Agenda for Climate Change Science 9. Adaptation and Mitigation 10. Indicators Development and Evaluation 11. International 12. Sustained Process 22

23 Guidance to Teams Risk Based Framing Information quality and documentation: transparency and chain of custody of information is critical Start with 2009 report, identify the new news Four scenarios provided Climate Sea level rise Land use Socioeconomic information Focus on community and capacity building Consider international context, adaptation and mitigation options, research needs, next steps for the sustained assessment, etc. 23

24 2013 Report Production Timeline A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D Oct 1, 2011 Mar 1, 2012 May Aug Oct Jan J F M A M J J Feb 1 Mar 1 Jun1 Jul 1 A S O N D Oct Expressions of Interest Authors meeting Deadline for information included in draft report (July 31, 2012) Development Of technical input Author teams incorporate Technical Input and other sources draft chapters JUL1: Request to NRC (and agencies) to hear preliminary presentations of potential key conclusions to identify potential show-stoppers CLAs and editors synthesize chapters and NCADAC reviews full document NRC, Agency, and Public review Were comments adequately addressed? Add gamechanging information in response to review comments (April 30, 2013) CLAs and NCADAC revise draft Rough layout N R C Agency SIGN OFF FAC to make Revisions NCADAC DRAFT, August 2011 EOP review

25 Outcomes of the NCA Ongoing, relevant analysis of scientific understanding of climate change impacts, risk, and vulnerability Enhanced timely access to Assessment-related data from multiple sources Systematic evaluation of progress towards reducing risk, vulnerability, and impacts A sustained process for informing an integrated research program Evaluation of the implications of alternative adaptation and mitigation policy options Information that provides the foundation for a science-based national discourse on climate change 25

26 Advice from the NRC: From the 2007 Evaluating Global Change Assessments Report: essential elements of effective assessments: A clear strategic framing of the assessment process Adequate funding that is both commensurate with the mandate and effectively managed A balance between the benefits of a particular assessment and the opportunity costs (e.g., commitments of time and effort) to the scientific community. A timeline consistent with assessment objectives, underlying knowledge base, the resources available, and the needs of decision makers. Engagement and commitment of interested and affected parties, with a transparent science-policy interface and effective communication 26

27 Advice from the NRC: From the 2007 Evaluating Global Change Assessments Report: essential elements of effective assessments: Strong leadership and well articulated structure. Careful design of interdisciplinary efforts to ensure integration, with specific reference to the assessment s purpose, users needs, and available resources. Realistic and credible treatment of uncertainties. An independent review process monitored by a balanced panel of review editors. Maximizing the benefits of the assessment by developing tools to support use of assessment results. Use of a nested assessment approach. 27

28 Advice from the NRC From 2009 Restructuring Federal Climate Research in Response to Climate Change Report: Unlike.IPCC..reports, a U.S. national assessment involves undertaking targeted research and creating new datasets and model runs at the regional scale, tailored to address U.S. national issues and concerns Ideally, a future national assessment would build ongoing relationships with stakeholders and identify useful decision-support tools and research priorities Some form of national climate change indices or report card may provide a useful communication tool 28

29 Lessons learned in previous lives Moving beyond salience, credibility and legitimacy? and Cash and Buizer: Knowledge-Action Systems for Seasonal to Interannual Climate Forecasting: Summary of a Workshop Importance of context, leadership, collaborative framing of problems, science translators, boundary organizations, etc.

30 Engagement Projects from Previous Lives 1. Arizona Department of Water Resources, 23 Years, wide variety of projects including 100 year Assured Water Supply Rules>>> 2. SAHRA Science to Support Decision-making in river basins of the Southwest 3. Arizona Water Institute: Building a Boundary Organization to support water sustainability: the Arizona Water Institute 4. Enhancing Water Supply Reliability on the Colorado River 5. Downscaling Workshops: Impacts of Climate Change on Central Arizona 6. KSSD Linking Knowledge with Action: Stakeholder perspectives in sustainable water resources management

31 Arizona Water Institute: Collaborative solutions for water sustainability A consortium of Arizona s universities focused on water sustainability in Arizona and throughout the world through water research, technology transfer, education and capacity building 400 water related faculty/staff 3 state agencies Public and private partners

32 Enhancing Water Supply Reliability An Interdisciplinary Project to Improve Predictive Capacity in the Colorado River Basin Research questions jointly framed Real-time, responsive decision support in context, eg shortage sharing criteria Knowledge system to encourage early adoption of science Investing in capacity building Products tailored for public and internal use Courtesy USGS

33 Ortiz Monasterio George Saliba An international comparison of four watershed management systems: KSSD Water Team: Linking Knowledge with Action for Sustainable Development (Clark, Matson, Dickson et al.) Upper Ping Basin, Thailand Northeast Brazil (Ceara) San Pedro, Arizona, USA Yaqui Valley, Mexico Louis Lebel Photographersdirect.com

34 Lessons Learned that have been useful for the NCA What has worked: Asking and answering the right questions, jointly framing research questions Actively managing the interface between scientists and decision-makers Problem-solving focus, eg. focusing on outcomes and best professional judgment Reframing, eg. water conservation through major energyintensive technologies is not a meaningful solution the triple bottom line or life cycle perspective Reinventing/repurposing existing capacity (AWI) Building knowledge networks or networks that connect users and producers of information

35 Lessons learned (cont) Being focused on adaptive management and testing the principles of being a learning organization Investing in capacity building Using trusted intermediaries, early adopters to break through Products tailored for specific audiences instead of one size fits all Engagement events designed to suit specific audiences and outcomes, with local sponsors; working through professional society sponsors at their own meetings Symmetry of interests information empowers people to truly participate Science as a boundary object - coproduction Patience 35

36 Lessons learned - What hasn t worked Excessive focus on downscaling techniques as the approach to decision-scale support Excessive focus on reducing uncertainty as opposed to focusing on using what we already do know Shared assets are more vulnerable: the case of the Arizona Water Institute. Boundary organizations are not always valued by the parents as much as the objects on either side of the bridge. 36

37 Building a Foundation for Adaptation Through Regional Coordination More effective integration across climate science research, adaptation efforts (including regional coordination efforts) and stronger outreach/communications partnerships could allow us to knit together multiple agency components into an interagency fabric The path forward for this approach (for USGCRP) is relatively straightforward it involves prioritizing and integrating existing agency investments into a more coherent whole, building the partnership and engagement strategy, and investing immediately in the first phase of the USGCRP global change information portal 37

38 Adaptation Task Force/Regional Coordination Strengthening efforts to build partnerships with non-federal partners to prepare for and reduce climate risks is a high priority; Rely on existing capacity within the regions but emphasize working more closely to ensure collaborative networks that support adaptation and assessments. 8 Regional hubs have been identified where strong partnerships between federal agencies, academia, NGO s and state and local governments are already in place. These entities support the regional components of the National Climate Assessment, but have also been asked to better articulate the roles and responsibilities of the various federal and non-federal providers of climate information in their region. Critical agencies in this effort are NOAA, DOI and USDA, but in all, more than 20 agencies have participated in developing this strategy 38

39 Coordination Principles: A Path Forward on Adaptation? Principles existing efforts to coordinate climate science and services: Through partnerships and outreach, engage a broad range of stakeholders and decision makers in collaborative, participatory processes to understand climate science and service needs. Leverage existing systems, institutions, partnerships and networks. Understand regional culture and its influence in decision making. Many agencies already have trusted representatives in the community, such as extension agents or local scientists who are well-suited for outreach activities with stakeholders. Ensure end-users of climate science and services are well-served and see the value-added in the services provided. Advance coordination processes based on shared learning and joint problem-solving 39

40 Criteria for success in KSSD Water Team Is there a culture of integrated learning or adaptive management? Are the linkages between the knowledge system and the decision processes transparent and accountable? Does the knowledge system support both long and short-term decisions? Is there careful and accurate monitoring, analysis and archiving of information? Is there adequate and secure funding for the knowledge system?