Energy Forecasting Group, May 10-11, 2012 Las Vegas, Nevada. Terry Baxter, NV Energy

Transcription

1 NV Energy Integrating DSM Into The Forecast Energy Forecasting Group, May 10-11, 2012 Las Vegas, Nevada Terry Baxter, NV Energy

2 2 NV Energy Service Territory

3 NVE Statistics ti ti Mixed results for 2011 compared to North Peak heavily influenced by cool summer. NVE SOUTH NVE NORTH % Change % Change Customers Residential 729, , % 276, , % Non Residential 101, , % 44,806 45, % Retail Sales (GWH) Billed Residential 8,716 8, % 2,200 2, % Non Residential 12,246 12, % 5,371 5, % Weather Normalized Residential 8,662 8, % 2,178 2, % Non Residential 12,215 12, % 5,365 5, % Peak Demand (MW) Recorded , , % 13% , , % 61% Weather Normalized 5,488 5, % 1,607 1, % 3

4 Mine Load Issues Very High Load Factor (80%-85%) Peak % is Lower than sales % partially due to 70 MW of Wholesale load on peak Timing is a Major Issue Environmental/Land Issues Resources for T&D Infrastructure build-out Metals Prices (Gold, Silver, Copper and Iron) NVE North Mine Load and Percent of Mine Load to Retail Sales NVE North Mine Load at Peak and Percentof MineLoad to Total Peak Mine Sales % of Sales Est. Mine MW at Peak % of Peak 4 G W H 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, % 33.0% 31.0% 29.0% 27.0% 25.0% 23.0% 21.0% 19.0% 17.0% 15.0% % o f S a l e s M W % 26.0% 24.0% 22.0% 20.0% 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% % o f P e a k

5 Forecast Method Estimate Residential and Commercial SAE Models Used NV Energy appliance saturation surveys and commercial audits in developing the historical database Developed separate multi-family and single family SAE databases Used employment categories to estimate commercial end-use intensities for small commercial and large commercial revenue classes Adjusted end-use intensity for Nevada lighting standards (stricter than Federal standards) Captured forecasted DSM savings through the end-use and housing structure intensity projections 5

6 Nevada recently passed legislation requiring higher lumen per watt input than Federal standards Federal Nevada 6

7 Residential Average Use Model AvgUse m a b c XCool m b h XHeat m b o XOther m e m Ten-year average use change: -0.4% per year 7

8 CIS Average Use Forecast Nevada Power Ten-year average use growth: 0.3% per year Sierra Pacific Ten-year average use growth: 0.1% per year 8

9 9 Annual Efficiency Expenditures

10 Cumulative Efficiency Program Spending Average expenditure: $23.3 million Average expenditure: $6.2 million 10

11 How Much Future DSM is Embedded in the Forecast? Efficiency expenditures have been ramping up while the economy has been ramping down Nearly impossible to untangle the impact of efficiency from changing economic conditions We know that t subtracting ti out future DSM savings would result in double-counting efficiency program impacts 11 We assume that the estimated models (baseline forecast) are capturing half of future program efficiency savings projections Average annual expenditures es over the last eight years is $29.5 million compared with forecasted expenditures (2012 to 2015) of $36.0 million dollars Lower average expenditures over the entire estimation range (1998 to 2011)

12 Incorporating Efficiency Program Savings Develop end-use energy forecasts from the baseline SAE forecast model (forecast includes the impact of new standards) For each end-use calculate average use per customer 2. Subtract out cumulative adjusted DSM end-use savings projections from the baseline end-use energy forecast For each end-use calculate the adjusted average use per customer 3. Adjust end-use intensity projections to reflect differences in average use growth Residential: use per household Commercial: use per sq ft (scaled to customer average use) 4. Execute SAE models with adjusted intensity projections

13 Baseline Adjusted 13

14 Residential Cooling Intensity Projections Baseline Adjusted 14

15 15 Residential End-Use Intensity Adjustments

16 Residential Average Use Forecast -NVE South (kwh) Baseline Adjusted 16

17 17 Commercial End-Use Intensity Adjustments

18 CIS Average Use Forecast NVE South (kwh) Baseline Adjusted 18