RENEWABLES TRENDS IN SCOTLAND STATISTICS & ANALYSIS. Scottish Natural Heritage June 2007

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1 RENEWABLES TRENDS IN SCOTLAND STATISTICS & ANALYSIS Scottish Natural Heritage June 2007 Scottish Natural Heritage

2 Table of Contents List of Tables & Figures Background SNH s Renewable Energy Policy SNH s Internal Renewables Database National Overview Analysis by Technology Onshore Wind Hydro Electric Regional Overview Conclusions Glossary of Terms Annex

3 List of Tables & Figures The figures used are from April Chart 1- Current status of Renewables Schemes by Technology for 2003, 2004, 2006 & 2007 Chart 2- Total Number of Renewables Schemes Consented or Applying for Consent Chart 3- Total Generating Capacity of Renewables Schemes Consented or Applying for Consent Chart 4- Breakdown of Onshore Windfarm Capacity (MW) by Status Chart 5- Generating Capacity of Onshore Windfarm Schemes Installed or Entering the Planning System by Strategic Locational Guidance Zone Chart 6- Formal SNH Response by Strategic Locational Guidance Zone Chart 7- Outcome of Windfarm Proposal by Strategic Locational Guidance Zone Proportion of Schemes Chart 8- Outcome of Windfarm Proposal by Strategic Locational Guidance Zone - Generating Capacity Chart 9- Breakdown of Hydro Developments in Scotland Chart 10- Total Number of Renewables Schemes Consented or Applying for Consent by Local Authority Chart 11- Total Generating Capacity of Renewables Schemes Consented or Applying for Consent by Local Authority Table 1- Generating Capacity of Renewables Schemes by Technology & Status 3

4 1 Background Since 2003 SNH has captured the trends in renewable energy development in Scotland in a series of Renewables Trends in Scotland: Statistics & Analysis' documents, which are available from our website. These provide an overview of renewable energy activity in Scotland and trends at the time. The first was published in December 2003 and updates were published in December 2004 and June This June 2007 report is the third update, using data as of April We aim to continue providing updates periodically, and would welcome feedback on key areas which would be of interest. Any comments should be provided in the first instance to: Brendan Turvey, SNH, Battleby, Redgorton, PH1 3EW, , brendan.turvey@snh.gov.uk 1.1 SNH s Renewable Energy Policy Scottish Natural Heritage (SNH) is a Government agency, charged with conserving and enhancing the natural heritage of Scotland, facilitating its enjoyment and understanding, and promoting its sustainable management. Scotland s natural heritage is its wildlife, habitats, landscapes and natural beauty, and includes the rocks, soils, landforms and waters on which these are based. We are statutory advisers and provide advice on how energy policy, development plan policies, and individual renewable energy development proposals will affect natural heritage interests. SNH s policy on renewables is set out in our Policy Statement No. 01/02 "SNH's Policy on Renewable Energy". In general, we support the use of renewables to counter the effects of climate change and promote the development of measures, including energy efficiency measures, to reduce the emission of CO 2, in line with Government policy. We support the Scottish Executive s aim of achieving 40% of renewable electricity by 2020, provided there is a suitable mix of renewables technologies, sited in locations best suited to the natural heritage. SNH has also published Policy Statement No. 02/02 "Strategic Locational Guidance for Onshore Wind Farms in Respect of the Natural Heritage", last updated in May 2005, and Policy Statement 04/01 on Marine Renewable Energy and the Natural Heritage (May 2004). A draft policy statement on Biomass and the Natural Heritage was issued for consultation in May SNH s Internal Renewables Database In 2003, our internal casework recording system was expanded to include information on all renewable energy schemes, including those on which SNH has been consulted. The database records renewable energy proposals of different 4

5 types within Scotland and SNH s response to them. As the data is grid-referenced, it enables data to be transferred into a Geographical Information System (GIS) for mapping at various scales and for selected renewables types. The data contained in the following sections have been identified by SNH from our database. While we have endeavoured to ensure accuracy of the data, there may inevitably be some omissions or inaccuracies. 2 National Overview The total existing installed renewables capacity is now standing at 2595 MW. Hydro schemes, including large-scale hydro schemes constructed in the 1940s and 1950s, and new storage and run-of-river schemes, still account for the largest share at 1353 MW (52% of total), while onshore wind accounts for 1177 MW (45% of total). Pumped storage hydro (700 MW) is not included in these figures as these are generally driven by off-peak nuclear power. The remainder of renewables generation comes from biomass (53 MW or 2%), 0.5 MW from wave and tidal and 10 MW from offshore wind. Adding in schemes which have been granted consent but which are not yet constructed, the combined total is 4390 MW. In this total, onshore wind takes the greatest share. Onshore wind provides 2706 MW, hydro (excluding pumped storage) 1470 MW, offshore wind 160 MW, while biomass is unchanged at 53 MW. Within the consents system, whether seeking planning consent from local authorities or Electricity Act consent from the Scottish Executive, there is also a very substantial further queue of projects, mainly onshore wind. Applications are lodged for 5647 MW of onshore wind, 34 MW of small-scale hydro, and 10 MW of offshore wind. Additional projects which are involved in the scoping stage in preparing an environmental impact assessment show a similar distribution: 3097 MW of onshore wind, 24 MW of small-scale hydro, 165 MW of offshore wind, 27 MW of biomass and 4 MW of marine. The total of this queue at application or scoping stage is now 9359 MW, an increase of around 1028 MW since June 2006, nearly all accounted for by onshore wind proposals. SNH is also in contact with a large number of further schemes currently subject to pre-application discussion, usually confidential: a total of 1264 MW. This total has however reduced from 2000 MW since June 2006, which may be a sign that such schemes are being translated into actual proposals entering the planning system. It may also reflect a slowing of the industry while existing schemes are delayed further along the planning process. As in the June 2006 report, where a scheme is recorded as at pre-application stage, and there has been no further discussion with the developer for a period of two years, it is presumed to be inactive and has not been included in these statistics. Such proposals account for a further 1221 MW in our database; it is possible that some of these proposals could be re-activated at a later date. 5

6 Overall, there has been no significant change from June 2006 figures in generating capacity from wave and tidal or hydro technologies. Wave and tidal technologies are not sufficiently developed beyond the prototype or demonstration stage to allow deployment at a large scale, though applications for small wave arrays are anticipated relatively soon. For offshore wind, there are a number of early proposals, but many developers may be awaiting the results of the Scottish Executive s proposed Strategic Environmental Assessment for offshore wind. The Scottish Executive has indicated that its aspiration of 40% renewable electricity by 2020 translates into a requirement of around 6000 MW of generating capacity. Taking schemes which are installed and consented and those at application stage (ie with applications for consent lodged), these total 10,017 MW (or 10GW) of generating capacity, more than sufficient to meet this target. In addition, there is over 3300 MW at scoping stage, and over 1000 MW at pre-application discussion stage, i.e. over 14,000 MW in total. However a significant proportion of these proprosals may not be compatible with environmental and planning constraints, particularly as cumulative impacts increase in relevance. The trends are reflected in Chart 1 and Table 1 below. These provide a breakdown of the generating capacity in April 2007 and compare it to the position as at April 2006, November 2004 and November Annex 1 provides a full technological breakdown of installed capacity within and yet to enter the consents system as at April

7 CHART 1 Current Status of Renewables Schemes by Technology for 2003, 2004, 2006 & Generating Capacity (MW) onshore wind 2003 onshore wind 2004 onshore wind 2006 onshore wind 2007 offshore wind 2003 offshore wind 2004 offshore wind 2006 offshore wind 2007 hydro 2003 hydro 2004 hydro 2006 hydro 2007 biomass 2003 biomass 2004 biomass 2006 biomass 2007 marine 2003 marine 2004 marine 2006 marine 2007 Technology Pre-application Scoping Application Approved Installed

8 TABLE 1 Generating Capacity (MW) of Renewables Schemes by Technology & Status Onshore wind Offshore wind Hydro Status Preapplication Scoping Application Approved Installed Total Biomass Marine Totals Status Preapplication Scoping Application Approved Reference dates for data are: November 2003 November 2004 April 2006 April 2007 See Annex 1 for a more detailed breakdown by technology for Figures for hydro exclude 700 MW pumped storage schemes and 2007 figures exclude schemes where the latest preapplication discussions were over two years ago. Installed Total

9 As well as considering the overview of renewables schemes, it is also interesting to compare trends over time. Charts 2 & 3 below show the number and generating capacity of renewables schemes which have reached application within the consents system by technology. This is based on the date an application is first submitted. This does not include old large-scale hydro schemes, unless applying for refurbishment under ROS, and single turbines. Schemes are included which have subsequently been withdrawn or refused following application. Following a steady increase in interest after 2001, peaking around 2004, the number and generating capacity of onshore windfarm applications have been reducing and this trend appears to be continuing. Other renewables take a marginal share at present, though small scale hydro has maintained a steady level of applications and there is a significant level of preapplication interest in biomass schemes. 9

10 CHART 2 Total Number of Schemes Consented or Applying for Consent Number of Schemes (#) Onshore Wind Offshore Wind Hydro Biomass Marine 0 Before / / / / / /07 Year 10

11 CHART 3 Total Generating Capacity of Schemes Consented or Applying for Consent Generating Capacity (MW) Onshore Wind Offshore Wind Hydro Biomass Marine 0 Before / / / / / / /08 Year * The year runs from 1 April- 31 March 11

12 3 Analysis by Technology 3.1 Onshore Wind As shown above, reflecting similar patterns in earlier years, the majority of renewable activity is from onshore wind. This is considered in more detail in this section. Since 2001, we have responded formally to 193 onshore windfarm applications. In total, one third of all our final planning responses are no objections (33%), and a slightly larger number of responses are conditioned objections (44%). (SNH regularly responds with a conditioned objection where we consider that a scheme is acceptable in principle, but where certain conditions would have to be observed in order to be compatible with natural heritage interests.) This highlights that SNH supports in principle the majority (77%) of onshore wind applications, provided certain conditions relating to the natural heritage are met. The smallest, though significant, proportion of our responses are full objections (23%), based on significant adverse impacts on the natural heritage. Chart 4 shows the breakdown of capacity by status, highlighting the significant amount of capacity awaiting consent, and the smaller amount of capacity entering the system compared to previous years. CHART 4 Breakdown of Onshore Windfarm Capacity (MW) by Status Confidential pre/ scoping Scoping Application Approved Installed Refused Withdrawn

13 Chart 5 shows the generating capacity of schemes installed or proposed within each of the natural heritage sensitivity zones identified in SNH s Policy Statement (02/02), Strategic Locational Guidance for Onshore Wind Farms in Respect of the Natural Heritage (SLG). Single turbine schemes have not been included, as the guidance does not apply to schemes below 50kW. In this guidance, the high sensitivity zone includes areas whose wildlife or landscapes are protected through national or international designations, the medium sensitivity zones includes areas subject to local landscape designations and Regional Parks, and the lowest sensitivity zone includes most undesignated countryside. This Chart shows an increase in the number of schemes being proposed in the medium sensitivity Zone (48%) compared to April 2006, making it greater than the number in the lowest sensitivity zone (45%). The smallest number of schemes is still in the zone of highest natural heritage sensitivity (7%), which indicates a good degree of accord with our Guidance. CHART 5 Generating Capacity Capacity of Onshore of Onshore Windfarm Windfarm Schemes Installed Schemes or Applying Installed for Consent or Entering by Strategic Locational Guidance Zone the Planning System by Zone 2006 / 2007 Generating Capacity (MW) Lowest Medium High SLG sensitivity zone 13

14 It is also interesting to consider the pattern of SNH responses against our Strategic Locational Guidance sensitivity zones. Of the 193 schemes for which we have given a formal response since April 2001, a majority of these (54%) have fallen within areas identified as lowest sensitivity in natural heritage terms. Only 7% have been within areas of greatest natural heritage sensitivity. Our pattern of responses is depicted below in Chart 6, showing a very similar distribution to that seen in As might be expected, the proportion of schemes for which we have made a full objection is highest in areas of high natural heritage sensitivity. CHART 6 Formal SNH Response by Strategic Locational Guidance Zone 60 Number of Responses (#) Lowest Zone 1 Medium Zone 2 Zone High 3 No Objection Conditioned Objection Full Objection SLG Sensitivity SLG Zone Zone 14

15 Charts 7 & 8 show the outcome of windfarm applications within the consents system against our Strategic Locational Guidance. This shows that half of the schemes (50%) in the area of greatest natural heritage sensitivity are refused. In the area of least natural heritage sensitivity there is a proportionally greater number of schemes approved compared to those in the medium sensitivity zone. There are a greater number of schemes withdrawn in areas of medium sensitivity. As in 2006, Chart 8 shows that the greatest amount of generating capacity has been approved by consenting authorities in the areas of least sensitivity. CHART 7 Outcome of Windfarm Proposals by Strategic Locational Guidance Zone - proportion of schemes % of Schemes Lowest Medium High SLG sensitivity zone Installed / Approved Refused Withdrawn 15

16 CHART 8 Outcome of Windfarm Proposals by Strategic Locational Guidance Zone - Generating Capacity Generating Capacity (MW) Lowest Medium High SLG sensitivity zone Installed / Approved Refused Withdrawn 16

17 3.2 Hydro Electric As discussed earlier, there has been no significant change in hydro capacity since The following Chart, Chart 9, shows the breakdown of hydro schemes which are either installed or within the consent systems. It excludes pumped storage schemes as outlined in Section 1. CHART 9 Breakdown of Hydro Developments in Scotland 1800 Generating Capacity (MW) Small scale hydro (below 5MW) New large scale (above 5MW) Refurbished large scale hydro Old large scale hydro Figures shown relate to the number of schemes 17

18 4 Regional Overview The development of renewables has shown geographical variation, based on a number of contributing factors including resource availability, grid capacity and favourable planning policies. The following Charts, Charts 10 and 11, show the number and generating capacity of renewables consented or applying for consent since April 2001 by local authority. This date excludes single turbines. The pattern remains similar to that presented in 2006, with the largest amount number of applications and the highest capacity sought in Highland (22%), an increase on 2006 (at 15%). Other areas of focus include Western Isles (10%), though much of this is from a single scheme, South Lanarkshire (9%), Dumfries & Galloway (9%), Perth & Kinross (8%) and the Scottish Borders (8%). As in previous years, the majority of this interest is from onshore wind. CHART 10 Total Number of Schemes Consented or Applying for Consent by Local Authority Number of Schemes (#) Aberdeen City Aberdeenshire Angus Argyll & Bute City of Edinburgh Clackmannanshire Comhairle nan Eilean Siar Dumfries & Galloway Dundee East Ayrshire East Dunbartonshire East Lothian East Renfrewshire Falkirk Fife Glasgow City Highland Inverclyde LLT Midlothian Moray Multiple Authorities North Ayrshire North Lanarkshire Orkney Perth & Kinross Renfrewshire Scottish Borders Shetland South Ayrshire South Lanarkshire Stirling West Dunbartonshire West Lothian Local Authority 18

19 CHART 11 Total Generating Capacity of Renewables Schemes Consented or Applying for Consent by Local Authority 3000 Generating Capacity (MW) Aberdeen City Aberdeenshire Angus Argyll & Bute City of Edinburgh Clackmannanshire Comhairle nan Eilean Siar Dumfries & Galloway Dundee East Ayrshire East Dunbartonshire East Lothian East Renfrewshire Falkirk Fife Glasgow City Highland Inverclyde LLT Midlothian Local Authority Moray Multiple Authorities North Ayrshire North Lanarkshire Orkney Perth & Kinross Renfrewshire Scottish Borders Shetland South Ayrshire South Lanarkshire Stirling West Dunbartonshire West Lothian Those schemes identified as multiple authorities in Charts 11 & 12 are both within the central belt (456 MW) and are: Whitelee straddling the boundaries of South Lanarkshire; East Ayrshire; East Renfrewshire Black Law straddling the boundaries of North Lanarkshire; East Renfrewshire; South Lanarkshire 19

20 5 Conclusions As in previous years, the growth of renewables in Scotland remains dominated by onshore wind, and patterns of geographical distribution remain unchanged from While there are a substantial number of small hydro developments, their overall contribution to generating capacity is small. There is a clear correlation between the likelihood of success for onshore wind projects in the consents system and the choice of sites in areas of lower natural heritage sesnitivity. Overall, since 2001, SNH has supported around three quarters of all renewables applications, though often subject to conditions to ensure protection of natural heritage interests. However there is a clear trend to a reduced rate of new proposals, balanced by an increased rate of construction of consented schemes. The implementation of SPP6 by local authorities, and the identification of areas of search, may affect future patterns of development. New government incentives to promote the development of biomass, and wave and tidal power, may have an effect on the interest in these technologies in the longer term. 20

21 6 Glossary of Terms Generating Capacity- The actual installed or potential maximum generating capacity of a renewables scheme. This is usually measured in Megawatts (MW), and only relates to maximum output of the scheme when it is operating at full capacity. Installed - generators which have been constructed and are operational. Approved -generators which have received planning or Electricity Act consent, whichever is appropriate, but have not yet been constructed. Refused - generators which have been refused development permission. Withdrawn - proposals which have been formally withdrawn after having been lodged for consent. Application - generators for which consent has been formally applied for. Scoping - generators for which the applicant has initiated a scoping discussion in advance of preparing an Environmental Statement in support of an application; but an application for consent has not been lodged. Such consultations are in the public domain. Pre-application - proposals for which there has not as yet been an application for consent or a request for a scoping opinion, but on which SNH has been consulted by the developer. Such consultations may be in commercial confidence. Biomass - covers agricultural residues, forest residues, energy crops and SRC. This does not include energy from waste. 21

22 7 Annex 1 Technological Breakdown of Installed Capacity either installed or within the Consents Systems (as at April 2007) Onshore Windfarms # of Schemes Capacity (MW) Installed Approved Application made Scoping Total Pre-application Refused Withdrawn Decommissioned 0 0 Offshore Windfarms # of Schemes Capacity (MW) Installed 0 10 Approved Application made 1 0 Scoping Total Pre-application 0 0 Refused 0 0 Withdrawn 0 0 Decommissioned

23 Hydro # of Schemes Capacity (MW) Installed Approved Application made Scoping Total Pre-application Refused Withdrawn 0 0 Decommissioned 0 0 Biomass # of Schemes Capacity (MW) Installed 3 53 Approved 1 N/a Application made 3 N/a Scoping 4 27 Total Pre-application Refused 0 0 Withdrawn 0 0 Wave and Tidal # of Schemes Capacity (MW) Installed Approved Application made 2 N/a Scoping 4 4 Total Pre-application 0 0 Refused 0 0 Withdrawn 0 0 Decommissioned