MAKING TOMORROW A BETTER PLACE
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- Spencer Ellis
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3 Underlying (1) earnings growing strongly Group highlights Strong first-half performance Group operating margin increasing expect improved margins in support services and construction services (excluding the Middle East) Good cash flow and strong balance sheet expect net debt to be below 125m, following 298.4m acquisition of Carillion Energy Services (formerly Eaga plc) Order book expected to remain strong, plus record pipeline of contract opportunities Integration of Carillion Energy Services progressing well expect synergy cost savings to increase from 9m p.a. to 15m p.a. by 2013, at one-off cost of 20m On track to make further progress in the full year, despite challenging market conditions (1) Before intangible amortisation, non-recurring operating items and non-operating items 3
4 Financial reporting segments Support services Expect to increase first-half margin and operating profit Integration of Carillion Energy Services ahead of expectations Expect full-year revenue growth with margin remaining strong Public Private Partnership (PPP) projects Directors valuation of financially closed projects expected to increase Sold two further investments at 7% discount rate Good pipeline of opportunities to add new investments Middle East construction services Expect strong first-half revenue growth and increased operating profit, with margins easing back in line with expectations Continue to target growth in full-year revenue and operating profit Construction services (excluding the Middle East) Good progress with re-scaling UK construction Canada markets remain strong, notably PPP Expect to increase both first-half and full-year margin and operating profit, despite planned reduction in revenue due to re-scaling UK construction 4
5 Trading update Outlook Expect to build on strong first-half performance and deliver full-year earnings growth Ability to perform well despite challenging market conditions continues to reflect strength and resilience of our well-balanced UK support services and international business mix good revenue visibility record pipeline of contract opportunities Medium term growth objectives announced August 2010 unchanged substantial organic growth in UK support services from 2012 onwards double revenue in Middle East and in Canada over 3 to 5 years, in each case to around 1bn Acquisition of Carillion Energy Services will immediately enhance short and medium-term prospects for growth 5
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8 Agenda Carillion Energy Services (CES) Acquisition of CES The Big Energy Picture History of CES Key markets & drivers UK Legislation John McDonough, Group Chief Executive Jonathon Porritt, Founder Director Forum for the Future Paul Varley, Managing Director, CES Paul Varley Mitesh Dhanak, Strategy Director, CES CES - three key energy efficiency markets Private housing Paul Varley Commercial and non-domestic property Dominic Shorrocks, Integration Director Local Authority & Social Landlord housing Paul Varley - Clean Energy Programme Chris Rigg, Renewables Director Summary & conclusions John McDonough Q&A 8
9 Acquisition of Carillion Energy Services (formerly EAGA) Strong financial and strategic rationale Acquisition completed 21 April 2011, valuing Eaga at 298.4m ( 180.7m cash, 30.6m new Carillion shares) Eaga now rebranded as Carillion Energy Services (CES) CES financial results will be reported within the support services segment proforma 2010 full-year combined support services revenue circa 2.7bn Enhanced Carillion s position as a leading UK support services company increased Carillion s capabilities to provide integrated solutions Attractive cross-selling opportunities Scalable platform to grow the UK s largest independent energy services company Over 600m of contract wins since acquisition announced Expect acquisition to deliver both immediate and medium-term earnings enhancement in addition to previously announced objectives for growth 9
10 Carillion Energy Services (CES) Strong capabilities focused on three growth markets CES thoroughly reviewed post acquisition, business plan established Outcome in line with expectations CES focused on three energy efficiency markets private housing commercial and non-domestic property Local Authority & Social Landlord housing Total value of these markets currently circa 15bn p.a. forecast to increase by around 50% to 22bn by 2015 CES is largest independent energy services provider with total market share of < 5% Significant opportunities to grow with the market grow market share 10
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13 Carillion Energy Services A brief history A leading UK energy services company established in 1990 Excellent operational management team and reputation for customer service Strong growth track record leading provider of residential energy efficiency solutions, at forefront of low carbon economy in the UK one of the UK s largest national suppliers of heating and renewable energy managing end-to-end solutions for customers Core focus has been on the domestic housing market, working with central and local Government, their agencies, housing associations and with utility companies to lower carbon emissions combat fuel poverty and improve living conditions reduce energy consumption Specialist knowledge, skills and delivery capabilities 13
14 Carillion Energy Services Strong independent offering focused on three growth markets Going forward, CES is focused on three main energy services markets private housing commercial and non-domestic property Local Authority & Social Landlord housing CES s scale and independence from energy companies is important to customers Key market drivers energy security/rising energy prices UK Legislation to reduce carbon emissions social trend towards energy conservation the technology/products to reduce energy consumption 14
15 Energy services companies CES is by far the largest UK independent energy services company Utility Companies Independent Companies 15
16 Energy security The UK has become increasingly dependent on imports to meet its energy needs UK Government predicts import dependency will continue to rise from 27% in 2009 to 46-58% in 2020 (1) UK import dependency (%) All fuels European Commission (1) DECC Annual Energy Statement
17 Rising energy prices Average electricity prices have increased by 65% over the last 10 years (1) Ofgem s Project Discovery modelled four future energy use scenarios, which predict wholesale electricity price will more than double between Wholesale electricity prices ( /MWh) Slow Growth Dash for Energy Green Transition Green Stimulus Ofgem: Project Discovery four energy use scenarios (1) DECC, Annual Domestic Energy Bill Data 17
18 UK Legislation Challenging emissions reduction targets UK Legislation designed to cut 2008 emissions by 2020 (1) by 29% for residential buildings 13% for commercial Tonnes MtCO 2 (m) (2) 38% cut at current emission level 2020 target level Tonnes CO 2 (per property) (2) target level 13% cut % cut 4 29% cut 0 Residential Commercial 0 Residential Commercial (1) UK Low Carbon Transition Plan 2009 (2) 2050 Pathways Analysis Report 18
19 UK Carbon emissions Carbon Dioxide emissions by end user (1) (%) Other 9 Business Transport 30 CES targeting around 50% of the total end-user market whole of Residential over half of Business Residential (!) DECC: UK Emissions Statistics 19
20 Social trends Increasing importance of sustainability agenda to consumers: a recent CBI survey found 7 out of 10 people feel a sense of responsibility to do something about climate change to companies: in a 2010 CBI/ KPMG survey 65% of respondents recognised the importance of a low carbon approach to their business to wider community regeneration Ageing population by 2034 the number of people aged 85 and over is projected to be 3.5million times larger than in 2009 (1) Increasing demand for social housing Rising energy costs leading increasingly to fuel poverty fuel poverty defined as spending >10% of household income on energy the latest UK Government figures (2) showed 4.5m fuel poor households, double the figure from 5 years ago (1) Office for National Statistics (2) DECC Annual Fuel Poverty Report
21 Technology Global technological advances in energy efficiency - reliability, performance and cost price of solar panels has dropped 17% (1) since Jan 2011 Ernst & Young report (2) forecast price of solar panels will drop 50% over next 5 years Solar Photo Voltaic expected to achieve grid parity (3) Proven energy efficiency solutions increasingly sophisticated technologies for energy efficiency/micro-generation established domestic energy efficiency technologies Increasing visibility of energy use through Energy Monitors and Smart Meters Cost of solar power modules (US$ per watt of capacity) Source: Financial Times (1) Credit Suisse; (2) Ernst & Young UK solar PV industry outlook June 2011; (3)Renewable Energy Association 21
22 Changing shape of CES Private Heating & Insulation Green Deal Warm Front CERT Energy Company Obligation Market Size Commercial and Non-Domestic Domestic Renewables (Feed in Tariffs & Renewable Heat Initiative) Digital Switchover Digital Metering
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24 UK Government Legislation Legislative framework is very complicated Energy Security Bill currently before Parliament energy security - balancing supply and demand is a major issue delivery of legally binding CO 2 reduction commitments Government s legally binding carbon reduction commitments are underpinned by legislation/programmes Green Deal Energy Company Obligations (ECO) Renewable Heat Initiative (RHI) Feed in Tariffs (FITs) CES knowledge and capabilities are key strengths to deliver services aligned with Government programmes enable businesses to comply with legislation deliver significant customer savings 24
25 UK Government Legislation Green Deal (GD) private housing Flagship Government Policy providing a new way for householders to pay for energy efficiency measures via their utility bills Expected 2bn p.a. requirement Loans to be attached to the property and pass from one occupier to the next The annual cost cannot exceed estimated savings in energy bills Golden Rule Primary legislation currently before Parliament Secondary legislation will follow to enable Green Deal to apply from late 2012 Green Deal is seen as an important driver of economic growth and jobs 25
26 UK Government Legislation Energy Company Obligation (ECO) up to 1.5bn p.a. from 2013 Main energy suppliers to fund energy efficiency measures for homes, especially fuel poverty Replaces existing Carbon Emissions Reduction Target (CERT) and Community Energy Saving Programme (CESP) Feed in Tariffs (FITs) - 870m Energy company payments to households with renewable energy systems Driver for Solar Photo Voltaic (PV) Renewable Heat Initiative (RHI) - 860m Government payments for heat generation through solar thermal or biomass Combined Heat and Power systems (similar to FITs) Applies to commercial-scale installations now, domestic programme from 2012 Carbon Reduction Commitment (CRC) - 1bn of tax revenue in 2011/2012 Mandatory emissions trading scheme for large public and private sector organisations 26
27 UK Government Legislation Climate Change Levy (CCL) Government sets carbon prices to drive investment in low carbon technology EU Emission Trading Scheme (EUETS) Organisations have allowable level of annual greenhouse gas emissions and permitted to purchase/sell surplus allowances Energy Performance Certificates (EPC) Buildings with floor area over 50 m 2 (other than dwellings) must have energy assessment at point of construction, lease or sale and must meet standards Display Energy Certificates (DEC) All public buildings over 1,000m 2 must have energy performance assessed, rated and if necessary improved, with rating publicly displayed Minimum legal energy standard for rented property Rented homes and businesses must have at least E energy efficiency rating c700,000 properties to be upgraded by
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29 Private housing market Current market 1.8bn p.a. (1) CES >10% market share Heat Pumps 59m (3%) Solar PV 110m (6%) Insulation 500m (29%) Biomass/ Combined Heat & Power 15m (1%) Solar Thermal (water heaters) 90m (5%) Heating 1bn (56%) 22m private homes - generate 24% of UK Carbon emissions (1) 29
30 Private Housing Expect market to more than double to over 4bn per annum by 2015 (1) Political UK Government committed to carbon reduction legislating to ensure delivery FITs, RHI, GD, ECO Economic Energy costs rising Investments in energy efficiency measures deliver attractive returns 4bn+ Market Social Fuel poverty increasing Consumers striving to become more sustainable Technological Proven energy efficiency solutions Delivery capability people and skills - available (1) CES estimate based on current market size and DECC predictions 30
31 Supply Private Housing CES capabilities Market-leading UK-wide supply chain for heating, renewable, and insulation materials/products Revenue-based private sector funding Created first privately financed Solar PV project Will replicate for Green Deal Audit & Install Provide installation services to over 2,000 homes a day National capabilities to install heating, insulation and renewable energy systems Accredited in-house surveyors and engineers plus established network of sub-contractors Aftercare Provide 24/7 servicing/emergency repairs to over 2,000 homes each day National capability to manage/maintain 31
32 Private Housing Integrated end-to-end market leading capability Value Chain Supply Marketing Fund Audit & Installation Aftercare CES is the leading UK independent energy services company Integrated end-to-end offering geared to delivering Green Deal Proven UK-wide capability Strong customer base - marketing through affinity partnerships 22m houses need to improve energy efficiency Energy improvements to a typical 1980s detached property, not including renewables, can deliver up to 663 p.a. saving (1) or 52% of typical bills Customers who install Solar PV can save on average up to 30% of annual bill (2) (1) Energy Saving Trust; (2) CES Figures 32
33 Private Housing Affinity partnerships - Homebase Homebase - part of Home Retail Group and the second largest DIY retailer in the UK Homebase and CES are forming a 3-year partnership Service to include heating services central heating systems annual service visits Strategic aim of partnership positioned to maximise sales opportunities from Green Deal 33
34 Private Housing Affinity partnerships 34
35 Private Housing Affinity partnerships - The AA The AA has recently entered the home emergency response market Advanced stage of agreeing a 3-year partnership Agreement covers breakdown annual service visits boiler replacement Trial service provision already started 35
36 Private Housing Affinity partnerships - The AA 36
37 Private Housing Summary Current 1.8bn market is expected to grow to over 4bn by 2015 CES has >10% share of current market Market-leading independent energy services company with knowledge, experience and technical skills proven UK-wide delivery capability, offering end-to-end solutions Geared to delivering Green Deal programmes and objectives Strong and growing customer base Affinity relationships established and significant potential to add more Potential to grow with the market increase market share 37
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39 Commercial & non-domestic energy services Current maintenance/retrofit market worth at least 3bn p.a. (1) CES <1% market share Ventilation & Air-Conditioning 1bn Lighting 500m Building Fabric 500m Controls 500m Water Efficiency 100m 1.8m commercial buildings - generate 18% of UK Carbon emissions Space & Water Heating 400m (1) Source: Internal CES estimates based on market data and 2050 Pathways Analysis report 39
40 Commercial & non-domestic energy services Expect market to at least double to 6bn by 2015 (1) Political Compliance with Regulations Carbon Reduction Carbon reporting Buildings performance EUETS, CRC, CCL, EPCs, DECs Economic Rising energy costs Carbon taxation Returns on investment in energy efficiency 6bn+ Market Social Companies becoming more sustainable Important factor in recruitment Technological Increasingly sophisticated technologies for energy efficiency/micro-generation Availability of people/skills ( 1) CES estimate based on market data 40
41 Commercial & non-domestic energy services CES capabilities Audit and solutions On-site auditing (CES and Carillion Professional Services) Growing capability in energy and water efficiency solutions Building certifications (CES and Carillion Professional Services) Bureau, Monitoring & Targeting Bill management retrospective and ongoing validation Sub-meter installations Consumption monitoring and reporting Improvement projects Growing capability in project delivery Aftercare/operation and maintenance Customer support and warranty maintenance Operate and maintain energy efficient equipment Energy performance contracts Guaranteed savings over a contract term 41
42 Commercial & non-domestic energy services Integrated end-to-end market capability Value Chain Audit & solution Bureau, monitoring & targeting Improvement projects Aftercare, operation & maintenance Energy Performance EPC Contracts Broad, integrated energy services offering Well positioned for growth with large established customer base for cross-selling Strong demand from existing customers Target customer savings of up to 30% 42
43 Carillion s support services offering Enhanced capability to meet complex customer needs Complexity Bundled Services Total Facilities Management (TFM) Two or more single services Integrated Services Transformation TFM plus management of corporate real estate Bundled services plus strategic management of property and services Operational outsourcing plus business transformation % of 2010 Full-year revenue 18% 34% 26% Technical Services Mechanical & electrical engineering maintenance (plus Energy Services from 2011) 22% Single Service e.g. Cleaning, security, catering 0% Scope 43
44 Commercial & non-domestic energy services Major cross-selling opportunities Existing customers investing in measures to reduce energy costs and carbon footprint Carillion provides support services for over 100,000 buildings over 17,000 km of roads rail and other infrastructure Existing customers include BT Monteray circa 8,000 properties Nationwide Building Society, over 800 high street branches and corporate offices Ministry of Defence - over 40,000 military homes - 6,700 buildings for Regional Prime Central - 2,000 buildings for Allenby Connaught 15 Public Private Partnership acute UK hospitals and healthcare facilities 6 Public Private Partnership hospitals in Canada 44
45 Commercial & non-domestic energy services Nationwide Building Society Energy services capability was an important factor in recent Nationwide Building Society contract win 3-year Facilities Management services contract for over 800 buildings including corporate head offices, data centres and retail branches across the UK Contract focused on managing and reducing direct environmental impacts in particular reducing carbon footprint and delivering real long-term energy efficiency savings Energy and Water Performance Contract in place to deliver Guaranteed Energy Savings over the 3-year period Investment in Energy Saving Projects including heating, air conditioning, lighting and ventilation, Solar PV installation and Behavioural Change to achieve energy reduction 45
46 Commercial & non-domestic energy services Carillion customer opportunities National Health Service Ministry of Defence BT 46
47 Commercial & non-domestic energy services International opportunities Canada Feed in Tariff programme in Ontario offers commercial-scale solar PV opportunities increasing demand for energy services from commercial FM clients growing political and social pressure for reducing carbon emissions Middle East demand for energy and water services as part of FM contracts rising electricity and water prices in UAE greater drive for sustainability 47
48 Commercial & non-domestic energy services Summary Current maintenance and retrofit market worth in excess of 3bn p.a. CES has <1% share of current market Expect market to at least double to 6bn by 2015 Carillion has large established customer base of blue-chip commercial and public sector customers offers major cross-selling opportunities Strong UK-wide, integrated delivery capability CES capabilities combined with those of other Carillion businesses knowledge, experience and technical skills offering end-to-end solutions Strong demand from existing customers Well-positioned for growth 48
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50 Local Authority & Social Landlord housing 10bn p.a. total current capital & maintenance market (1) 2bn p.a. relates to energy services (2) - CES >7% share Potential for market to grow to at least 12bn p.a. by 2015 and to 15bn p.a. by 2020, due to carbon reduction programme Public sector budget cuts create opportunities for private finance Affordable rent issue impacting Carillion s integrated energy-led offering gives access to non-energy market sectors 5m social housing properties responsible for 6% (3) of UK carbon emissions Reactive Maintenance Estates Management Compliance 10bn (4) p.a. Planned Maintenance Energy Related (1) Internal CES Estimates based on market data, (2 ) Internal CES Estimates based on market data (3) CES calculation based on DECC data (4) Internal CES breakdown based on market data 50
51 Local Authority & Social Landlord housing Potential for market to grow to at least 15bn p.a. by 2020 (1) Political Housing standards/carbon reduction targets Deficit reduction impacts RHI, FIT, GD, ECO Economic Rising energy prices Pressure to cut spending Affordable rents 15bn+ Market Social Increasing demand for social housing Ageing population Community regeneration Technological Established domestic energy efficiency technologies Skilled installation staff (1) CES estimates based on current market plus ECO spend and stock upgrades 51
52 Local Authority & Social Landlord housing CES key capabilities Statutory compliance Compliance testing for social landlords Repairs and maintenance A responsive repair and maintenance service Regional asset upgrade and management Capability to upgrade assets of Local Authorities/Social Landlords, bringing in 3rd party investment Strategic asset management Create strategic energy/asset management plans for Local Authorities/Social Landlords 52
53 Local Authority & Social Landlord housing Broad, integrated energy-led offering Value Chain Statutory compliance Responsive repairs & maintenance Regional asset upgrade and management Strategic asset management UK-wide, integrated energy-led offering 5m houses that need to improve energy efficiency Established customer base with strong relationships Well positioned to use energy-led offering to increase share of total market Capability to deliver major savings e.g. up to 658 p.a. or 46% for a typical 1950 s semi (1) Savings can include on average 225 p.a. for upgrading a G rated boiler; 110 p.a. for installing cavity wall insulation; and 145 p.a. for installing loft insulation (1) (1) Energy Saving Trust 53
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55 Privately financed solar PV project Social Landlords (CES has signed agreements with social landlords to install PV) Energy Companies (pay feed-in tariffs) Equity 75m CES (20%) HSBC Environmental Infrastructure Fund (40%) Barclays Infrastructure Funds Management Ltd (40%) Revenue- based private finance vehicle Debt 225m HSBC Lloyds NAB RBS Santander Installation CES revenue 200m+ Operation & Maintenance CES revenue 50m+ First ever privately financed Solar PV project Carillion s expertise was key to achieving financial close Three revenue and profit streams Expect to roll out further privately financed Solar PV projects 55
56 Local Authority & Social Landlord housing Privately Financed Solar PV project Involves over 30,000 PV installations 300 million of private finance up to 15m of Carillion equity achieves Carillion investment hurdle rate Generates for CES 200m+ of installation revenue 50m+ of operation and maintenance revenue FITs fixed for 25 years and index linked Free of charge to Local Authorities/Social Landlords Free electricity for tenants PV beneficial owner Free electricity Tenant CES install and manage PV systems Social Landlord Collects the Feed-In Tariff Nil cost of installation Help towards carbon and fuel poverty targets Benefits those most in need 56
57 Local Authority & Social Landlord housing Clean Energy Programme Further opportunities Solar PV Government target is to install Solar PV on 750,000 houses potential to create more privately financed Solar PV projects Project finance model can be replicated for other renewable energy systems e.g. air source heat pumps ground source heat pumps solar thermal Green Deal establishes the economics for investing in energy efficiency measures and unlocks private investment 57
58 Local Authority & Social Landlord housing Welwyn Hatfield Community Housing Trust CES has heating servicing and maintenance contract for the Welwyn and Hatfield property portfolio of some 10,000 properties 10-year partnering contract expiring March 2014 Complete circa 500 heating installations p.a. Relationship recently expanded to include installation of Solar PV systems under Clean Energy Programme Approximately 500 PV systems have been installed to date 58
59 Local Authority & Social Landlord housing Clean Energy Programme Privately Financed Solar PV for Southern Housing Group 59
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61 Local Authority & Social Landlord housing Summary Total market 10bn p.a. of which 2bn relates to energy services Expect market to grow to at least 15bn by 2020 due to carbon reduction programme/energy services UK-wide, integrated energy-led offering Established customer base with strong relationships First privately financed Solar PV project Potential for further privately financed Solar PV or other renewable energy projects e.g. ground/air source heat pumps Well-positioned to grow energy services revenue use energy-led offering to increase share of total market 61
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63 Carillion Energy Services Summary Integration progressing well with cost synergies increased from 9m to 15m by 2013, at one off cost of 20m CES focused on three key energy efficiency markets private housing commercial and non-domestic property Local Authority & Social Landlord housing Strong growth drivers in each key market Well-positioned in each key market only independent company with integrated end-to-end capabilities strong customer base CES will deliver immediate and medium-term earnings enhancement, in addition to Carillion s previously announced objectives for growth 63
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66 UK Government Legislation Energy Company Obligation (ECO) Requirement on main energy suppliers to fund heating systems and energy efficiency works in homes to reduce emissions and fuel poverty Replaces existing Carbon Emissions Reduction Target (CERT) and Community Energy Saving Programme (CESP) Expected to fund works worth up to 1.5bn per annum from 2013 Feed in Tariffs (FITs) Energy Company payments to households with renewable energy systems Expected payments of 867m, 46p per KwH (inc export tariff) Driver for solar PV with tariffs focused on smaller (sub 50kWp) systems Index linked for 25 years Renewable Heat Initiative (RHI) Similar to FITs but paid for heat generation through solar thermal or biomass Combined Heat and Power systems Total RHI payments from Government in CSR period are 860m Applies to commercial-scale installations with domestic programme from
67 UK Government Legislation Carbon Reduction Commitment (CRC) Energy Efficiency Scheme A mandatory emissions trading scheme aimed at large public sector and commercial organisations in medium to low energy intensive sectors. Applies to all organisations with an annual electricity consumption exceeding 6,000MWh (equivalent to 500,000) Started in April following budget changes this will raise 1bn in 2011/12 Climate Change Levy (CCL) Used by Government to set carbon prices and drive investment in low carbon technology Two elements, each of which is calculated on basis of carbon intensity of fuel used levy paid by non-domestic users on energy used (in addition to CRC) excluding electricity generators a new separate carbon price support rate to be levied on electricity generators Budget set out intention to raise the current carbon price floor from current 16/tCO 2 to 30/tCO 2 in
68 UK Government Legislation EU Emission Trading Scheme (EUTS) Large emitters are allocated a set amount of greenhouse gas emissions allowances on an annual basis Emitters are then permitted to purchase or sell surplus allowances Energy Performance Certificates (EPC) An assessment of the energy performance of the building as an asset, based on a defined usage pattern Required under the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) for all buildings with a floor area of 50 m 2, other than dwellings, at the point of construction, lease or sale. Accompanied by a Recommendation Report, including recommendations for energy efficiency improvements Evaluation must be undertaken by an accredited energy assessor Display Energy Certificates (DEC) An operational energy performance rating, based on actual energy usage, required under the EPBD for all public buildings over 1,000 m 2 - responsibility lies with owner of the building Accompanied by an Advisory Report, which includes recommendations for energy efficiency improvements Evaluation must be undertaken by an accredited energy assessor 68
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