Modelación de dispersión de contaminantes

Transcription

1 Modelación de dispersión de contaminantes II Taller sobre implicaciones en política pública de nuevos hallazgos científicos sobre contaminación atmosférica Zapopan, Jalisco, 3 Octubre 2008 Benjamin de Foy, Saint Louis University Outline How does modeling work? What can dispersion models do for us? Are the results useful?

2 The Holy War: Mac vs. DOS (Umberto Eco) The fact is that the world is divided between users of the Macintosh computer and users of MS-DOS compatible computers. I am firmly of the opinion that the Macintosh is Catholic and that DOS is Protestant. Indeed, the Macintosh is counter-reformist and has been influenced by the ratio studiorum of the Jesuits. It is cheerful, friendly, conciliatory; it tells the faithful how they must proceed step by step to reach -- if not the kingdom of Heaven -- the moment in which their document is printed. It is catechistic: The essence of revelation is dealt with via simple formulae and sumptuous icons. Everyone has a right to salvation. DOS is Protestant, or even Calvinistic. It allows free interpretation of scripture, demands difficult personal decisions, imposes a subtle hermeneutics upon the user, and takes for granted the idea that not all can achieve salvation. To make the system work you need to interpret the program yourself: Far away from the baroque community of revelers, the user is closed within the loneliness of his own inner torment.

3 Is Modeling like DOS? No, it s like Linux: Small autonomous models There's more than one way to do it Ability to develop expertise Obligation to develop expertise But it s not like an ipod a Grand Designer producing an aesthetically accessible experience But it could be like a Mac Functional modules built on top of a Linux foundation

4 3D Meteorological Modeling

5 Particle Trajectories

6 Ozone Modeling Comparison of simulated (colored contour) versus observed (colored dots and squares) nearsurface peak O3 concentration during April Lei et al., Characterizing ozone production in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area: a case study using a chemical transport model, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

7 Multi-Level Approach Biogenic Radiative Impacts Cloud Condensation Nuclei Emissions Meteorology Particle Trajectories Air Quality Modeling Gas Phase Aerosols Urban Exposure Models

8 Multi-Level Approach Meteorology Urban Canopy Land Surface Models Satellite Remote Sensing Parameterization Schemes Obs Nudging 3DVar / 4DVar Particle Trajectories Flow Visualization Forward Trajectories Impact Areas Residence Times Plume Age Backward Trajectories Concentration Field Analysis Air Quality Models Gas Phase Process Analysis Aerosols Inverse Models

9 Meteorology / Trajectories What are we trying to do? What type of flow do we have? Does the model represent the main features? What can you do with the output? What is it worth?

10 What type of flow do we have? Vertical Mixing DOE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE PROGRAM MEGACITY AEROSOL EXPERIMENT IN MEXICO CITY (MAX-MEX)

11 What type of flow do we have? Sea-Breeze A BAD AIRDAY IN HOUSTON BY R. M. BANTA, C. J. SENFF, J. NIELSEN-GAMMON, L. S. DARBY, T. B. RYERSON, R. J. ALVAREZ, S. P. SANDBERG, E. J. WILLIAMS, AND M. TRAINER

12 What type of flow do we have? Drainage Coevolution of D own -V a lley F low a n d th e N octur n a l B oun da r y L a yer in Com plex T er r a in, J. O. PINTO, D. B. PARSONS, W. O. J. BROWN, S. COHN, N. CHAMBERLAIN, AND B. MORLEY

13 What type of flow do we have? Convergence Distinct wind convergence patterns in the Mexico City basin due to the interaction of the gap winds with the synoptic flow, B. de Foy, A. Clappier, L. T. Molina, and M. J. Molina

14 Does the model represent the features? Convergence

15 Does the model represent the features? Convergence

16 WRF Obs (RAMA) Does the model represent the features? Drainage de Foy et al., Basin-scale wind transport during the MILAGRO field campaign and comparison to climatology using cluster analysis, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.

17 SO2 Plume Event MCMA-2003 B. de Foy et al., Modelling constraints on the emission inventory and on vertical dispersion for CO and SO2 in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area using Solar FTIR and zenith sky UV spectroscopy, Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics

18 Does the Model represent the features? SO2 Plume from Tula Complex CAMx vs. Observation

19 BY R. M. BANTA, C. J. SENFF, J. NIELSEN-GAMMON, L. S. DARBY, T. B. RYERSON, R. J. ALVAREZ, S. P. SANDBERG, E. J. WILLIAMS, AND M. TRAINER A BAD AIRDAY IN HOUSTON What can you do with the output? Flow Synthesis Houston Field Campaign - TEXAQS2000

20 What can you do with the output? Flow Synthesis MCMA MILAGRO de Foy et al., Basin-scale wind transport during the MILAGRO field campaign and comparison to climatology using cluster analysis, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.

21 What can you do with the output? Biomass Burning Plumes Forward Trajectories Forest Fires detected by Satellite around Mexico City 17 March 2006

22 What can you do with the output? SO2 Concentration Field Analysis Analysis of BackTrajectories suggest SO2 impacts in Mexico City from Industrial sources to the north and from the Popocatepetl volcano to the southeast Possible source regions (red = more probable)

23 What is it worth? It is the mark of an instructed mind to rest satisfied with that degree of precision which the nature of the subject admits, and not to seek exactness where only an approximation of the truth is possible Aristotle ( BC)